Russia-Ukrainian War

[Viking]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Viking If anything bad happens anywhere in the world, you want to be in USD and US assets and perhaps gold. Almost anything else wills suffer. US stocks might decline too, but they sure will do better than virtually any stock market anywhere else. This has been true forever ( at least since the 1980’s) and it is true now.

i agree and that is what we are already seeing. However, i do think some US equities, like Apple, could be collateral damage. If so, that could be what drives markets the next leg lower. So we could see a flight to quality (US$) and lower equity markets. US bonds could rally with inflation set to move higher. Crazy times. 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

Man! And to think not long ago we had a crowd here who contested the intertwined nature of investing and politics. As if taxes, attitudes towards businesses, respect for private property, etc has nothing to do with determining how well an investor will fare. Color me shocked! 

[cwericb]

15 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Man! And to think not long ago we had a crowd here who contested the intertwined nature of investing and politics. As if taxes, attitudes towards businesses, respect for private property, etc has nothing to do with determining how well an investor will fare. Color me shocked! 

We don't often agree, but you took the words right out of my mouth. As I have said numerous times before, anyone who thinks that you can separate investing and politics is taking a very limited view of investing. If the current situation doesn't prove that I don't know what it would take.

[Ulti]

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

[glider3834]

On 3/14/2022 at 8:42 AM, Viking said:

Can we take away any investment lessons from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? 
 

I think there is one big one: political risk for an investment is being significantly re-defined. This risk was already being re-defined over the past 15 months. KWEB peaked at 86 in January of 2021. Today it is trading at 24 = -72% decline. BABA was trading at $300 in Nov 2020. Today it is trading at 87 = -71% decline. Charlie Munger clearly misjudged one important aspect of his investment in BABA - political risk.
 

But up until now political risk was primarily seen as investing in companies with their base of operations in China (largely along the lines of can you trust the government or can you trust the accounting). Or more recently Russia (take a look how Van Eck Russia ETF has traded over the past 3 months). 
 

But the war in Ukraine is magnifying another big political risk (that is not yet on most investors radar) for companies with global operations: especially those with significant operations in Russia and China.

 

Obviously, all the companies who have exited Russia have destroyed shareholder value in the process. Obviously no one saw this coming. POLITICAL RISK IS NOT THEORETICAL… IT IS REAL. Given the learnings of the past 15 months, and the past 3 weeks with Russia/Ukraine, how do CEO’s and investors now view the political risks of doing business in and with China? For multinational corporations.

 

One of the usual outcomes of war is a spike in nationalism. In all countries. As relations between US and China continue to deteriorate (has been getting worse for years already) at what point do Chinese citizens decide buying Western brands is not just uncool but unpatriotic. Will this be good or bad for Apple’s iPhone sales in China? How about Nike? Or KFC? When war is waging the opinions of ‘the mob’ can change fast (usually with a little help from the government). And once they change there is no going back. And it looks to me like we are on the knifes edge in China. Is this political risk priced into Apple trading at 30X earnings today? (And if Apple sells off, given its massive size, guess what will happen to the market indexes?)
 

The second emerging political risk is where you source your production. Need stuff from Russia to build you widget? You are screwed. Europe and nat gas is the poster child of this risk manifesting.

 

If our relationship with China blows up how will that play out for Apple? People might want to stock up on their Apple products while they are still available. Now i am saying this tongue in cheek. What I know, as an investor, is the risk of a blow up with China is rising.
 

So multinational companies, already taking it on the chin in Russia, now have to be re-assessing and re-evaluating their exposure to China. Especially if the relationship with China and US/the West deteriorates further in the coming weeks. As we learned with Russia, things can get repriced very quickly and in very unexpected ways.

viking yes I think what this whole situation with Ukraine has really brought home the issue of security around supply chain for companies. I think companies will focus a lot on this going forward & that will mean potentially more investment flowing to companies in Countries that are in 'the West' or aligned with the West & so there are going to be opportunities in that space. So I think geopolitical considerations will take priority over lower cost production considerations. But that transition might need time & I notice that sanctions have been selective around certain commodity export from Russia but not others.

 

 

 

 

 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, glider3834 said:

viking yes I think what this whole situation with Ukraine has really brought home the issue of security around supply chain for companies. I think companies will focus a lot on this going forward & that will mean potentially more investment flowing to companies in Countries that are in 'the West' or aligned with the West & so there are going to be opportunities in that space. So I think geopolitical considerations will take priority over lower cost production considerations. But that transition might need time & I notice that sanctions have been selective around certain commodity export from Russia but not others.

With most investments it is usually best to ignore political dimensions as they are usually too unpredictable (timing and actual impact). This is probably true 95% of the time. The challenge is guessing when we are in the 5% of the time when political dimensions need to be considered. 
 

The other challenge today is investors are pretty terrible at incorporating 1 in 50 year (or longer) events into their investment process. Covid was a great example. Most people are trying to understand the war in Ukraine (and its impact on financial markets) by looking primarily at what happened with the Iraq war (or ‘other’ recent wars). Tiny sample size. And very little in common with what is going on today in Ukraine. So my guess is financial markets are not prepared for a protracted war that gets bigger and uglier (drawing more nations in) and that lasts a long time.

 

i continue to think China is the key to how bad the Ukraine war gets. And to understand where China stands you only have to follow what they are telling their citizens about the war. Today the Chinese communication to their people is pretty much exactly what Putin is saying to the Russian people. Like i have been saying for the past month if you want to understand what someone is going to do… the best thing is to listen to what they actually say. China today is firmly in Putin’s corner. Until i see that change significantly i am going to remain very cautious on the war in Ukraine. China’s support will only embolden Putin.

—————

Below is an example of an article on chinadaily.com that nicely sums up China’s current position: full support of Russia. I continue to think this position will be increasingly difficult to maintain as the war in Ukraine escalates. The West (countries and companies) will not allow China to openly support and fund  Russia’s war - there will be consequences for China… and investors need to have their eyes wide open to the risks.
————-

Nations urged to de-escalate Russia-Ukraine conflict

- https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202203/08/WS62268f9ea310cdd39bc8b05a.html

 

With regard to China-Russia relations in the current international landscape, Wang said bilateral ties are grounded in a clear logic of history and driven by strong internal dynamics, and the friendship between the Chinese and Russian peoples is rock-solid.

 

The China-Russia relationship is valued for its independence, he said. "It is based on nonalignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of any third party, and it is free from interference or provocation by third parties. This is both what historical experience has taught us and it is an innovation in international relations."

 

As one of the most crucial bilateral ties in the world, China-Russia cooperation will deliver benefits and wellbeing to the two peoples, and is also conducive to world peace, stability and development, Wang added.

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Viking

[Spekulatius]

Peronally, I am not trying to predict political what is going to happen, I just want to avoid trouble. I do think that the US is the save heaven and to a lesser extend Europe. China is toxic right now and goes to the too hard pile. I think there is a lot of cheap stuff right here in the US if you like tech, there is no reason to go straight into the hornets nest with BABA and the like. I do think that a directional bet with LEAP or even short term option may makes sense (on KWEB probably).

 

As for Ukraine, if you see that Russia is asking China for help 19 days into the invasion , you know they are in deep trouble.  China will probably do a little, but not really significant, because they don’t like to side with a loser and Putin sure looks like this. In addition, he is a Pariah of course.

You do see reports on CNN and Fox News that Russia may only be able to support their war machine for about 10 more days, but these could be long ten days.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

China will only buy the dip on Russia if it is well below book value with sufficient margin of safety. (i.e. they will get involve if it is 10x worth for it for them, i.e. having the Russian on the rope with massive concessions). In other words highly unlikely. There is no honor among autocrats everything is transactional. It has to be well worth it and right now not sure why PRC would supposedly be gaining beyound symbolic gesture. The future superpower (PRC as they see themselves) cannot be associated with what it looks like (and certainly is) a balatant and naked aggression that is getting so much attention.

 

The Ukrainian blood that is being spilled is buying Taiwanese perhaps another decade of independence.

 

The "Russia needs help from China" news is either exagerated up by U.S./allies intelligence community or it is very real but leaked by the U.S. intelligence community. Either way it was good to leak it, as it will pre-empt China and force it to take a posture.

 

On Russia, the Oligarch cannot do anything. They have been de-fanged long ago, despite Western fasinations of them. There will be no "upraising" by the peasants and population, another fancifull Hollywoodish dream. The only threat to Putin is from within its own security establishment, ex- and current FSB. That said, they will also be pariah in a post-Putin world if ever that happens.

 

Sometimes, crisis tend to focus the mind as it did for Zelensky the Comedian. Perhaps current crisis is also focusing Putin's mind. Power respects power. If he cannot pull it together, the only way out in Kremlin is in a bodybag through a palace coup. Thus self-preservation will have him focus his mind after all he is not dumb ,... just getting old, and for whatever reason it seems, he accepted the wrong inputs by his intelligence chiefs and miscalculated on a biblical scale.

 

Some years from now, consipracy theories will develop that it was Western intelligence that fed that wrong intelligence to Kremlin, making Putin walk into a trap, de-fanging its warmachine, and its economy and sending it back to the Brezhnev era. This would be an interesting novel.

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

While the propaganda machine is working overtime and without question many believe the narrative that Putin is spouting out, it’s also clear that many people, especially younger ones won’t. Usage of VPN is way up in Russia since the invasion and we know why. The Internet, ubiquitous cellphones, cameras and social media make it very difficult to hide stuff. Back during WW2 in Germany, my grandma listend to BBC radio (they transmitted in German as well) on long wave radio to get some less biased news. There is no question you can inform yourself much easier in Russia now, if you care.

 

[Spekulatius]

Ok, I got suckered into Ukrainian war youtube a bit too. It's kind of insane to see stuff like the infantry fighting vehicle blowing off the driver hatch of a Russian infantry vehicle and then putting holes in it.

It is also interesting that they often call out the Russian as "Orcs" in some clips. I guess compared to the Russians, the Army of Mordor looked fairly organized. I know it is all propaganda in one way or another but still. These Ukrainian guys certainly deserve all the help they can get.

 

 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Ok, I got suckered into Ukrainian war youtube a bit too. It's kind of insane to see stuff like the infantry fighting vehicle blowing off the driver hatch of a Russian infantry vehicle and then putting holes in it.

It is also interesting that they often call out the Russian as "Orcs" in some clips. I guess compared to the Russians, the Army of Mordor looked fairly organized. I know it is all propaganda in one way or another but still. These Ukrainian guys certainly deserve all the help they can get.

 

 

for the next 10 years, all of the Call of Duty , Command & Conquer (90s game) games will be based in Ukraine and Russia. We are back to having them as the good ol’ reliable villians. 
 

they will probably resurrect Red Alert as well. 

[Xerxes]

Some allies. Decades of friendship capped by a sword dance tournament with Trump in Riyadh and you get this. 
 

[changegonnacome]

5 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Some allies. Decades of friendship capped by a sword dance tournament with Trump in Riyadh and you get this. 
 

 

The one reliable in international affairs is how unreliable 'partners' turn out to be or to paraphrase De Gaulle i think......Nations don't have friends or enemies, only interests !

[Spekulatius]

19 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Some allies. Decades of friendship capped by a sword dance tournament with Trump in Riyadh and you get this. 
 

The Saudis are not really allies, but hideous backstabbers. On a positive note, this headline is totally meaningless.

[Spekulatius]

27 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

for the next 10 years, all of the Call of Duty , Command & Conquer (90s game) games will be based in Ukraine and Russia. We are back to having them as the good ol’ reliable villians. 
 

they will probably resurrect Red Alert as well. 

I used to play World of Tank Blitz /mobile which happens to be a game from a Belarusian company. Looks like the Russian T-72 got nerfed. They probably could put out an Ukrainian Tank line, but that might get them into trouble at home.

 

I sort of wonder how this company (Wargaming) stays in business with the boycotts and all.

[Xerxes]

26 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I used to play World of Tank Blitz /mobile which happens to be a game from a Belarusian company. Looks like the Russian T-72 got nerfed. They probably could put out an Ukrainian Tank line, but that might get them into trouble at home.

 

I sort of wonder how this company (Wargaming) stays in business with the boycotts and all.

haven’t heard of that one. 
admitingly, C&C and Red Alert were just b-type games. 
 

the one game that I really liked and was realistic was called “Blitzkreig”. You played most of the campaign in world war 2 as Germans. With all the h/w relevant to that campaign based on historical events. 
 

I recall this very well because in the game the famous German 88 gun you could use it both as an anti craft artillery as well as anti-armour. Which is what exactly happened in the war. The 88s were first AAA and later on became famous tank killers. 
 

and much later they were actually mounted as part of the Tiger’ arsenal. 

[changegonnacome]

Talk on 'the wires' that Ukraine & Russia peace talks are centering around Ukraine ceding effective control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia AND committing to not joining NATO.......and in response to a peace deal 'the West' will, in the main, lift sanctions.

 

I'm sorry if thats the deal where we end up, then Putin/Russia has "won"...........you can argue all day that it turned out to be harder than Putin thought or it didn't go well blah blah bah.

 

If he gets these three things he has won.

[Spekulatius]

56 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

haven’t heard of that one. 
admitingly, C&C and Red Alert were just b-type games. 
 

the one game that I really liked and was realistic was called “Blitzkreig”. You played most of the campaign in world war 2 as Germans. With all the h/w relevant to that campaign based on historical events. 
 

I recall this very well because in the game the famous German 88 gun you could use it both as an anti craft artillery as well as anti-armour. Which is what exactly happened in the war. The 88s were first AAA and later on became famous tank killers. 
 

and much later they were actually mounted as part of the Tiger’ arsenal. 

I have played C&C as well. My paternal grandfather served in the 88 FLAK railroad battalion in WW2 that moved to hotspots in Germany, where they thought the allied bomber would attack. He was reserve (due to age - mid thirties was considered too old for regular army). He never saw direct combat.

 

My maternal Grandfather was sent East and had a story to tell about entering Kharkow on horseback during the 3rd battle in 1943 (I believe) that makes clear that the Ukrainians didn't like the Russians back then. He got wounded not much later and that luckily ended the war for him.

I don't think the Ukrainians will like the Russians now much either for a long time.

[Spekulatius]

45 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Talk on 'the wires' that Ukraine & Russia peace talks are centering around Ukraine ceding effective control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia AND committing to not joining NATO.......and in response to a peace deal 'the West' will, in the main, lift sanctions.

 

I'm sorry if thats the deal where we end up, then Putin/Russia has "won"...........you can argue all day that it turned out to be harder than Putin thought or it didn't go well blah blah bah.

 

If he gets these three things he has won.

I think a ceasefire will be negotiated within 2 weeks but whatever happens, many of sanctions will be here to stay. You can look at the history of sanctions - most remain in place long after the initial incident has died down.

 

This is just my guess though and is worth what you are paying for. Perhaps Putin can claim victory, but the Russian economy will still be ruined and sent 20 years backwards. His army will take a long time to recover from this debacle.

[changegonnacome]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think a ceasefire will be negotiated within 2 weeks but whatever happens, many of sanctions will be here to stay. You can look at the history of sanctions - most remain in place long after the initial incident has died down.

 

This is just my guess though and is worth what you are paying for. Perhaps Putin can claim victory, but the Russian economy will still be ruined and sent 20 years backwards. His army will take a long time to recover from this debacle.

 

Let's see..............my prediction is that sanctions become defacto part of the peace negotiations.......and the big tickets ones for the Russian economy.....energy, swift access, frozen assets, BIS etc. etc. are either removed or scaled back so aggressively that they might as well not exist but will remain only to function as a fig leaf for Western politicians to hide behind when they suggest that sanctions remain because they are being 'tough' with Russia

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I have played C&C as well. My paternal grandfather served in the 88 FLAK railroad battalion in WW2 that moved to hotspots in Germany, where they thought the allied bomber would attack. He was reserve (due to age - mid thirties was considered too old for regular army). He never saw direct combat.

 

My maternal Grandfather was sent East and had a story to tell about entering Kharkow on horseback during the 3rd battle in 1943 (I believe) that makes clear that the Ukrainians didn't like the Russians back then. He got wounded not much later and that luckily ended the war for him.

I don't think the Ukrainians will like the Russians now much either for a long time.

Amazing !! He probably served under Generalfeldmarschall von Manstein, who got his field marshal baton at the siege of Sevastopol (in Crimea) !  We found a link  

 

you probably know this already. a fun anecdote. FLAK = Fliegerabwehrkanone 

 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Talk on 'the wires' that Ukraine & Russia peace talks are centering around Ukraine ceding effective control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia AND committing to not joining NATO.......and in response to a peace deal 'the West' will, in the main, lift sanctions.

 

I'm sorry if thats the deal where we end up, then Putin/Russia has "won"...........you can argue all day that it turned out to be harder than Putin thought or it didn't go well blah blah bah.

 

If he gets these three things he has won.

Russia desperately needs a break in the war. To rest its troops. And restock its supply lines. And figure out a new strategy. Sounds like putin is in process of paying/enlisting 40,000 Syrians to join the fight on Russia’s behalf… he needs time to put these sorts of measures in place. So my guess is ‘peace talk’ is just propaganda from Putin. My base case is Putin will continue until he gets regime change and at least 50% of Ukraine’s territory (the entire east of the country). 
—————

Putin has won IF the agreement you outline above is agreed to? My take is Putin has gotten his ass kicked. Militarily, economically and politically. Putin would be humiliated if he signed that agreement. Remember, he is a smash-mouth dictator. That is a win?
 

Militarily, IF that is what the final agreement looks like (and i highly doubt Putin will settle for that) then, despite Russia winning most of the battles, Ukraine will have won the war - no regime change and they keep their independence. All other nations/groups in and bordering Russia now KNOW that Putin can be defeated - Ukraine provides the model. Russia will have achieved none of its stated objectives: regime change, de-Nazification, re-unification with mother Russia. NATO has been re-born. And ALL OF EUROPE IS RE-ARMING LIKE CRAZY to protect itself from Russia. That is victory for Putin?

Economically, Russia is so screwed, even if sanctions are lifted. The economy will shortly be in recession/depression. Russia has effectively become a vassal stake to China. Victory?

 

Politically, Putin has exposed himself for all the world to see - he is now a pariah in the West. There is no turning the clock back on this catastrophe. Look at the change in the just the relationship with Germany - a catastrophe. Ukrainians (most European countries) now hate anything associated with Putin. Putin has stoked the flames of patriotism/nationalism in Eastern European countries (and all of Europe). At home in Russia, over time, the truth will come out as to what Russia has done (it was a massive war/destruction/deaths) and that Russia got its ass kicked. Putin has lost his ability to exert his influence in the West like in the past. Victory?

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Viking

[Blugolds]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Let's see..............my prediction is that sanctions become defacto part of the peace negotiations.......and the big tickets ones for the Russian economy.....energy, swift access, frozen assets, BIS etc. etc. are either removed or scaled back so aggressively that they might as well not exist but will remain only to function as a fig leaf for Western politicians to hide behind when they suggest that sanctions remain because they are being 'tough' with Russia

 

I agree, and I think it was discussed on this board, Putins plan was bomb the hell out of Ukraine so there is nothing left to join NATO and they take decades to rebuild, he was never going to occupy because thats impossible (Afghanistan 2.0), connect his land bridge to Crimea..and then try to  "negotiate" away the consequences...

 

BUT if he has nothing to negotiate, and neither party will compromise. Then how does it end. Then it comes down to how much Ukraine is willing to lose. Its pretty clear outside of some weapons, Ukraine is unfortunately on their own in this one. Putin can sit there and continue to lob in missiles for a month until there really is nothing at all left of Ukraine...meanwhile his holiness the Pope will continue to "be close to those who are suffering" and the rest of the world will change their FB profile pic to the Ukrainian flag and tweet "thoughts and prayers". World has come together for sanctions and humanitarian aid, I have a close friend that flew to Poland last week as refugee assistance and he said it was tremendously moving to see so many compassionate people helping others, almost got choked up telling me about it...but at the end of the day, thoughts and prayers, cookies and blankets has never stopped a dictator. 

 

The smarter move, if they want anything left of Ukraine is to give him the rogue regions that they've been fighting with anyway and start from there, the rest of the sanctions dont concern Ukraine as they asked for them but didnt impose them. IMO thats between Putin and the rest of the world, same as the other points. Have they even seen the Tier 1 fighters yet? Because the captured guys on video are the C-squad...they arent even equivalent to US National Guard, no battle tactics, no strategy, barely know how to use the equipment and weapons, not even a sandwich..these guys literally were told to just drive West and didnt even know what they were doing...Putin hasnt even used 1st string players yet has he? I saw the one Tank General or whatever was killed, but this honestly CAN NOT be the best the Russians have, they havent been using their "good" tanks or aircraft...or soldiers, so if I was Ukraine I would be expecting things to get "more serious" as this progresses and Putin gets frustrated and stops messing around. I could be wrong on this but it seems like he just sacrificed some 3rd stringers and blew through some of the old stock at the missile warehouse. 

 

I dont think he will get regime change, Zelensky was unanimously voted in by a wide margin (what was it 70 some %?) and he has certainly earned it thus far both in Ukraine and on the world stage, the guy is the real deal and tbh I have a little bit of President envy...(current and previous) I dont think the people would accept a regime change, thats too extreme, it will be another puppet like Belarus and then they mise well just take all of Ukraine. As for the East side, I dont know what Ukraine could do to stop that, probably too late, what is already captured I dont think they are gonna get back. 

 

Also lets assume that things are rolled back, will businesses really want to re-assume that risk, maybe its not an issue for another 5-8 years but they are then at the mercy of whatever day Putin wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. I think this behavior has some serious consequences even if things are rolled back, and it should be making companies think about doing business in other parts of the globe that could result in similar limitations.

 

The longer this goes on IMO the Ukrainians are heading down a narrowing tunnel, but more time for Putin also means its harder to hide, more Russians maybe find out about it, feel the pain of any sanctions and become more disgruntled with current  "leadership" and maybe something interesting happens in Russia via the citizens. 

 

Honestly I dont know how this gets negotiated with both sides feeling like its something they can stomach. 

 

Can anyone offer alternatives that Ukraine might actually go for? I personally dont think they should give an inch..but thats not reality and I also dont want to see the rock pile that used to be Ukraine. 

 

As for the Syrians..what does Ukraine do about that? Are there other large mercenary groups they can hire? Can they afford it?  Assuming no French Foreign Legion, France in NATO but Legion technically not? I did see an interesting article about Soldiers from the UK going AWOL to fight in Ukraine and British gov "doing everything they can to get them to come back"...I said two weeks ago wait till a gov says that rogue warriors are over in Ukraine as plausible deniability. I just dont buy that...no solider I have ever known would go AWOL and throw away their career, risk court martial etc to go fight in another country..I think thats unlikely. they also didnt say how many...could be British SF for all we know, if true. 

[changegonnacome]

36 minutes ago, Viking said:

And ALL OF EUROPE IS RE-ARMING LIKE CRAZY to protect itself from Russia. That is victory for Putin?

 

Russia/Putin is not planning to invade Europe....if that was the plan yes he's made the job harder for himself........the aim of course was to make it so that Ukraine didnt become a NATO country on his doorstep.....Russia/Putin has been consistent on this since NATO Bucharest summit in 2008 (look it up)....you seem to imagine he has Pan-European aspirations....he doesnt.....he has Russian FIRST security & sovereignty in mind.....and NATO expansion into Ukraine was a threat to that.

 

39 minutes ago, Viking said:

Putin would be humiliated if he signed that agreement. Remember, he is a smash-mouth dictator. That is a win?

 

These have been his 'demands' since 2008 and immediately preceding the war, during the war and if he gets his demands at the end of the war......yes it called a victory......when you get exactly what you want.

 

41 minutes ago, Viking said:

Militarily, IF that is what the final agreement looks like (and i highly doubt Putin will settle for that) then, despite Russia winning most of the battles, Ukraine will have won the war - no regime change and they keep their independence.

 

Independence is a very strong word for a country so destroyed by its neighbor, thats its neighbor tells it how to direct its sovereignty after the war i.e. forcing it to commit to not joining NATO. This is where it will end up now. I'm sure of it. You dont need to change the regime when you direct what it can or cant do. 

 

44 minutes ago, Viking said:

Russia will have achieved none of its stated objectives: regime change, de-Nazification, re-unification with mother Russia.

 

I'm afraid you're repeating Russian propaganda here - Russia's objectives re:Ukraine have been clear since 2008, what you listed here is the pretense that Putin used to begin the war. Even the USA government has called them that. The strategic objective clearly now was to (1) Teach Ukraine a lesson (2) Remind it the West wont spill a drop of its own blood to defend you, no matter what they say in Brussels or D.C. i.e. you are on your own against Russia and dont forget that again & (3) make it so Ukraine does not join NATO any time (4) Annex & formalize the annexation of the ethnically Russian regions of Crimea etc........which post the conclusion of this war will be officially integrated into Russia with Ukrainian consent under a binding international treaty

 

47 minutes ago, Viking said:

Politically, Putin has exposed himself for all the world to see - he is now a pariah in the West. There is no turning the clock back on this catastrophe. Look at the change in the just the relationship with Germany - a catastrophe. Ukrainians (most European countries) now hate anything associated with Putin.

 

Russia, as I explained previously @Viking, is a permanent member of the UN security council & the holder of the worlds largest nuclear warhead arsenal........it is not going away on the international scene or at the United Nations, nor is it wise for any right thinking politician to do so to make such a nation a pariah state and I expect a lot of pragmatism in the coming months as politicians play to the gallery while 're-integrating' Russia back into the global system. Germany will need its gas next winter.....no LNG terminal will be built that quickly......& the United States trust me wants more than anything else in its foreign policy dreams a stable situation in Eastern Europe vis a vis Russia such that it can pivot back to Asia where the real rising power with global ambitions is. 

 

This is the way I'm afraid. Your framework for thinking about this @Viking is idealistic and somewhat naive of the realpolitik of this whole situation. Like I mentioned above nation states don't have friends or enemies, they have only interests & as I've hoped I've outlined it is in the interests of the USA, UK, Germany, France etc. to return the situation in Eastern Europe back to lets call it 2007.....when no one ever dreamed possible that Ukraine could join NATO.

[Xerxes]

Enter the Siloviki

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/04/putin-security-elite-siloviki-russia