Russia-Ukrainian War

[changegonnacome]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

sanctions  against Russia here are very likely to stay, even if a peace deal or some sort will occur.  There are direct investment implications for this because of you think we will be back to normal after some sort of truce will be reached, I think you are very wrong, at least based on how this has worked in the past,

 

I somewhat agree - however what differentiates Russia from say Cuba/Iran/North Korea.....is what I referenced above, its place at the very top of the 'Great Power' table vis-à-vis its nuclear capability.........its not good risk management to leave a country with 6,000+ ballistic nuclear warheads so economically backed into a corner forever as it is now....& effectively barred from the international system (SWIFT / BIS etc.). To do so, I'm afraid, would be a mistake that would endanger us ALL over the long run and THIS above all else should be avoided at all costs. I don't like it one bit, but this is the reality and I hope the politicians are wise enough to know this........or put another way if Twitter polls decided world affairs I'm certain the human race would have been obliterated already by a thermonuclear catastrophe. Let's hope the politicians turn off Twitter, CNN, Instagram, Fox & focus groups when the real decisions need to be made. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Viking]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

@Viking I think in this discussion & in your comments above.....there is lots of idealism & wishful thinking (Russia losing war / Putin to be overthrown), the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion,  there is also element of tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad. Perhaps personally I have fierce contrarian bias that clouds my thinking too that acknowledge.

 

Below is a clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer......and his assessment chimes with my read of the situation...its pragmatic with not a shred of idealism.. ....I think his thinking is well reasoned & what we should all aspire to, as investors/thinkers, which is a detached realistic assessment of reality, based on historic evidence (sanctions) & game theory with an overlay of how in reality flimsy international "law" is in certain circumstances.

 

And for a definition of 'great power'........even in a declining state like Russia, with a tiny GDP & not that technologically advanced......the only requirement in our world to get into that great power group is to have pretty much any ballistic nuclear capability......and then a special place is reserved a the top of the great power group for those with a balisitic nuclear capability that can destroy the whole world (this group includes only two member the USA (5,500 warheads) & Russia (6257 warheads) with China way below with only 350 warheads. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons 

 

Like it or not Russia is great power........Putin/Russia literally controls the destruction of the whole planet & human race at his fingertips. 

 

When you strip away "society" and "law" there exists an undeniable third pillar of life.......the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right". It's not comforting to acknowledge this but it is the reality.

 

 

@changegonnacome i wish you would stop ‘paraphrasing’ what i have said previously because it is not accurate. Please debate what i say at the time i say it. Happy to do that. Because how do i debate what you say i said but that i did not say? 

‘Russia losing the war’ : yes, the war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia. They clearly mis-calculated. Are they losing the war? Probably not. But Ukraine’s response so far has been impressive and a surprise to me. Where do we go from here? No idea. Because i have no idea what Putin will do. And i have no idea how Ukraine will respond. 

‘putin to be overthrown’: not likely. But it makes sense to me the chances of this scenario have increased a little over the past month.

 

’the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion’: their sovereignty amd right to self determination is based on the rule of international law. Laws are not ideals. 

 

‘tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad‘: no idea where you got this conclusion from. I did say that what the US/West/Canada did in Iraq was a complete catastrophe. But don’t let what i actually say get in the way of what you think i say on an issue. If i am hard on Russia that does not mean i think everything ‘we’ do is good. But i understand that is how many people think these days.

 

‘clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer’: basically what Mearsheimer is saying is Russia is free to do whatever it wants (US and China as well). Ukraine today. The Baltic countries tomorrow. The former Soviet East block states after that. Might is right. Rule of law does not matter. He think the Ukrainian people and all the other countries either in the former Soviet Union or part of the East block should quit NATO and sue for peace with Russia IMMEDIATELY. Because the alternative, war with Russia, is not in their interest. Sounds rational. But i don’t think other countries in Europe (aligned with the West) are looking to sue for peace with Russia. Quite the opposite in fact… (The Vietnamese clearly were idiots to take on the US… according to Mearsheimer’s ‘logic’.)
 

 ‘Like it or not Russia is great power’: from i military perspective, i agree. It is no longer an economic power. And its economy looks looks like it will be contracting big time. 
 

‘the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right"’: i agree whole heartedly with the might part: Russia invading Ukraine was a pure exercise in power. Not complicated. But that does not make it right. Also not complicated. And that is why we are in the current catastrophe. Russia mis-calculated.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Viking

[Pelagic]

Political realists like Mearsheimer are a bit like value investors, forgotten until they're relevant again. Mearsheimer is a product of the Cold War where everything is framed in terms of hard power and the competing spheres of influence of two relatively equal great powers. Its an ideology that assumes rational actors and takes all analysis to its final conclusion  assuming as a given that the more powerful actor will prevail, often through simply threatening force, i.e the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now that a "great" power is involved in a dispute within their sphere of influence, realists get to be in the spotlight for a bit once again.

 

We're seeing though that either Ukraine said YOLO we will determine our own fate or that they reached a very different conclusion than Mearsheimer with regards to the extent of Russia's power. Perhaps they aren't strictly speaking rational actors and decided to gamble a bit that 2022's Russia has a limited ability to project power beyond their own border. Perhaps their experience fighting them for the last 8 years lead to this conclusion, I don't know. I simply think that the might makes right argument put forth by Mearsheimer and by extension the don't poke the bear argument completely ignores Ukraine's own ability to determine its fate. It also ignores the randomness associated with warfare, what ought to happen doesn't always happen. Wars are incredibly costly and even the most autocratic of regimes have limits to how much cost their populace is willing to tolerate. If Ukraine can continue what they've been doing for the last 3 weeks in making the war incredibly costly for Russia, they'll prevail.

 

There's speculation that post-war the $500B in frozen Russian foreign reserves will be utilized to rebuild Ukraine. And post-war, should it end on favorable terms for Ukraine, the door is wide open for Ukraine to join the west and completely break out of the Russian sphere of influence. A bit of a strategic gamble on Ukraine's part to not be more acquiescing to their regional hegemon but I don't think they share Mearsheimer's certainty that Russia's might will prevail.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

I guess it’s just perspective then. If I was in Ukraine, sitting around thinking and feeling isn’t going to do shit but make me mad and sad. Now what? Wait 10-15 years for a coin flip outcome and best case rebuild? No thanks. Lousy luck of the draw but the only real viable plan is move and start over. All these fake western helpers? Wanna really do something? Hold those funds. Allow these people fleeing in with open arms and then utilize those funds to give them a start. But that’s too practical. We rather virtue signal and send them the resources needed to die of a thousand paper cuts. 

[Pelagic]

The other alternative is wait 10-15 years and hope whoever replaces Putin isn't as committed to regional power, all the while making every decision with Russian foreign policy in mind. Still a coin flip.

 

100% agree though that those funds should be put to work now to assist refugees. And maybe incentivize defection among Russian soldiers with a bonus and path to citizenship in the EU.

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

i wish you would stop ‘paraphrasing’ what i have said previously because it is not accurate. Please debate what i say at the time i say it. Happy to do that. Because how do i debate what you say i said but that i did not say? 

 

My apologies at @Viking your correct on this. I'm both responding to you in my post but at the same time responding to a mixture of the message threads that are not yours. Conflating the two is imprecise and leaves ambiguity where I'm 'putting words in your mouth' so to speak. So totally agree on that & your right to call it out.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘Russia losing the war’ : yes, the war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia. They clearly mis-calculated. Are they losing the war? Probably not. But Ukraine’s response so far has been impressive and a surprise to me. Where do we go from here? No idea. Because i have no idea what Putin will do. And i have no idea how Ukraine will respond. 

 

Let's agree its too soon to call the war an unmitigated disaster for Russia, way too soon. For example do we know for certain the plan was to 'take Kiev' in three days? Nobody knows, so lets see. We also need to define what success would be for Russia in this, what are the strategic aims? Nobody knows for certain...but my opinion is that this was about NATO/EU encroachment and putting a stop to it. The question, which can only be answered after this war is over is the key one - in terms of whats left of Ukraine, is whats left more or less likely to be joining NATO/EU any time soon or not. If its more likely - Putin has lost. Less likely - Putin has won.

 

My point also, not directed at you but impreccily landing near you - was that simply like Putin's media tells his people Russia is performing great in the war......our media tells us what we want to hear......that the side we back is doing really well. I'm not saying this is not true but what I'm saying is we should be always mindful of media in any form that tells us things we might like to hear. Especially in conflicts with tribal overtones - East vs. West, Democrats vs. Republicans, Liberals vs. Conservatives. Remember were just monkeys with guns and money.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘putin to be overthrown’: not likely. But it makes sense to me the chances of this scenario have increased a little over the past month.

 

Agree the probability has risen........from impossible to basically impossible..........but also as per my line above........thinking about Putin err'ing and getting himself overthrown for 'messing' with the West pleases our tribal monkey brains such that we tell ourselves that. Its wishful thinking......which doesn't fully capture the reality that it remains highly highly unlikely an as I think Mearsheimar points out in some ways sanctions and ostracizing Russia stirs up feelings of nationalism and tribalism in Putin's own population....in some ways counter-acting whatever negatives might have led to his personal situation becoming more precarious.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

’the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion’: their sovereignty amd right to self determination is based on the rule of international law. Laws are not ideals. 

 

Yes but laws are made by men, & are imperfect & enforced by power & they can be ignored or twisted when suited & the truly great powers hold the veto.......as Russia does on the UN Security Council as a permanent member (the others are China, France,the United Kingdom, and the United States). Technically Russia can never be sanctioned under the internaitonal  'law' you referened which is really just the UN & whatever resolutions or sanctions it can pass to punish the 'guilty'.......see Russia has a veto......ergo it cannot be 'found guilty' under International by the only body that enforces this law because it sits on the jury with a veto. So you see how imperfect our "International law" law is.....and why I speak about the law of the jungle behind it? I think few people realize this - they think international law is like the law in their own country. You break it, your found guilty, your punished. Not so in international law.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad‘: no idea where you got this conclusion from. I did say that what the US/West/Canada did in Iraq was a complete catastrophe. But don’t let what i actually say get in the way of what you think i say on an issue. If i am hard on Russia that does not mean i think everything ‘we’ do is good. But i understand that is how many people think these days.

 

Yep you nailed - I had in mind other peoples threads earlier in the messages and should have been clearer on that

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer’: basically what Mearsheimer is saying is Russia is free to do whatever it wants (US and China as well). Ukraine today. The Baltic countries tomorrow. The former Soviet East block states after that. Might is right. Rule of law does not matter. He think the Ukrainian people and all the other countries either in the former Soviet Union or part of the East block should quit NATO and sue for peace with Russia IMMEDIATELY. Because the alternative, war with Russia, is not in their interest. Sounds rational. But i don’t think other countries in Europe (aligned with the West) are looking to sue for peace with Russia. Quite the opposite in fact… (The Vietnamese clearly were idiots to take on the US… according to Mearsheimer’s ‘logic’.)

 

I think what he's saying is that in some YES the great powers can do what they want, to an extent, but just not in other great powers spheres of influence such that they create existential fears for each other. The international system or rule of law exists but it is enforced by the great powers fundamentally and when it doesn't suit them they ignore it - because they hold a strange dual role as both policeman and perpetrator.......as I just outlined given the FIVE permanent member of the UN Security Council with VETO power. Russia, China, France,the United Kingdom, and the United States - depending on whats happening can be simultaneously the perpetrator, the policeman, the judge and jury. THIS is international law & you can see how imperfect it is and why the law of the jungle sits underneath.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘Like it or not Russia is great power’: from i military perspective, i agree. It is no longer an economic power. And its economy looks looks like it will be contracting big time. 

 

Yes it is - a man or country who hold the very destruction of the planet & human civilization at his fingertips has a power never wielded before in human history. Russia might be 50 -100 years behind the West economically but on this point there is no ambiguity - it is an 800ilb gorilla.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right"’: i agree whole heartedly with the might part: Russia invading Ukraine was a pure exercise in power. Not complicated. But that does not make it right. Also not complicated. And that is why we are in the current catastrophe. Russia mis-calculated.

 

I think what Mearsheimer means is that international law as we think of it is kind of fallacy and nebulous concept. Its made by great powers and enforced by consensus of great powers - as I've outlined above with its contradictory issues of veto power at UN  etc...........this makes it so that right or wrong such that transgressions between Great powers can be punished by somebody doesn't exist in reality or practice for the permanent members of the UN secruity council ...............for example we all think on this board & agree that what Putin did was mortally wrong and breaks international law on sovereignty as written down........SO if thats the case @Viking.......show me the charges & the guilty verdict handed down by the only arbiter of international law that exists today in the International law system - the UN? There isn't one because the Great Powers have made it so that they can never be truly "found guilty" by the enforcement body of that the law, the UN. So you can see - might equals right...........in the sense that the mighty (the FIVE) can never be found 'wrong' under international law as constructed today.

Edited March 13, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

^excellent points. 
 

I would actually be really interested in seeing what the Russian media is doing and how they are framing all this. If nothing else, we all know how the garbage gets rearranged here, but it would be fascinating to see the other side of things. Wars, more than most other events, while ongoing, are really, really easy to shape. There’s always photos or people who you can go to in order to shape whatever narrative it is you’re looking to shape.

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Pelagic said:

The other alternative is wait 10-15 years and hope whoever replaces Putin isn't as committed to regional power, all the while making every decision with Russian foreign policy in mind. Still a coin flip.

 

100% agree though that those funds should be put to work now to assist refugees. And maybe incentivize defection among Russian soldiers with a bonus and path to citizenship in the EU.

@Pelagic i agree with much of what you posted. The problem with Mearsheimer’s perspective is it conveniently ignores the reality of what has actually happened over the past 35 years in Eastern Europe / the former Soviet Union. According to Mearsheimer Lithuania, the first country to break from the Soviet Union in 1990, were idiots. A the time, there was a very big risk the Soviet Union would respond with their military. Then the flood gates opened and every country that could ran like hell from Soviet/Russian control. And it continues today.

Look at all the other countries who were successful the past +30 years in escaping the Soviet/Russia bear hug: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia. And according to Mearsheimer’s logic all of these countries were idiots to do what they did. So his theory has a pretty abysmal track record explaining what is actually happening in the real world (although is sounds great like most models do).

 

The problem for Ukraine is Russia, under Putin, has decided to wage war. As a result, Ukraine is going to have to fight to maintain its freedom.

[Viking]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

^excellent points. 
 

I would actually be really interested in seeing what the Russian media is doing and how they are framing all this. If nothing else, we all know how the garbage gets rearranged here, but it would be fascinating to see the other side of things. Wars, more than most other events, while ongoing, are really, really easy to shape. There’s always photos or people who you can go to in order to shape whatever narrative it is you’re looking to shape.

 

I think there is a really simple answer to your question: 15 years in jail if you say anything about the war the government doesn’t like. 
 

Not sure i would characterize the ability of citizens in US/Canada/Europe to get information as garbage; not that difficult to access good/balanced information if you want. If its garbage here, it is infinitely worse in Russia today. 

—————
Ukraine news: Journalists flee Russia amid Putin's information crackdown
- https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-war-journalists-flee-russia-putin

 

“Independent and foreign journalists based in Russia are fleeing the country as Russian President Vladimir Putin cracks down on dissenting information about his invasion of Ukraine.

 

Alexey Kovalyav, an editor at an independent news outlet in Russia and a fellow at the World Press Institute, said he left the country in a Friday tweet.

 

"Never thought it'd come to this, but I did have to leave Russia, crossing the border on foot in the middle of the night, with my panic-packed bags on my back and my dog in tow," he wrote. "Felt a massive door slam shut behind my back. Barely had enough time to call my parents. Crazy times."

[Gregmal]

Yea but what’s the guy in Russia, who works construction, sitting in his living room drinking vodka seeing on TV? That’s what would be interesting from the perspective of studying narrative shaping and propaganda. 
 

the stuff that “leaks” through is often leaked through for a reason. Basically to the points @changegonnacome made. Same way you have these toolbag news editors screaming at the underlings “go find me an unvaccinated 6 year old in a red state who’s in the hospital with COVID”. World is big enough to find whatever youre looking for and with enough publishing power you can create all kinds of illusion. What is the illusion being presented to the pro Russia Joe Schmoe? It’s not the one we are told it is here, that’s for sure. They’re people, just like us. What influences them?

[Viking]

52 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea but what’s the guy in Russia, who works construction, sitting in his living room drinking vodka seeing on TV? That’s what would be interesting from the perspective of studying narrative shaping and propaganda. 
 

the stuff that “leaks” through is often leaked through for a reason. Basically to the points @changegonnacome made. Same way you have these toolbag news editors screaming at the underlings “go find me an unvaccinated 6 year old in a red state who’s in the hospital with COVID”. World is big enough to find whatever youre looking for and with enough publishing power you can create all kinds of illusion. What is the illusion being presented to the pro Russia Joe Schmoe? It’s not the one we are told it is here, that’s for sure. They’re people, just like us. What influences them?

“What influences them?” Propaganda works exceptionally well. There is a reason dictatorships are obsessive about control of the media. Most people in Russia are going to think exactly what Putin/Russian military wants them to think.
 

Russia is in Ukraine with a peaceful operation to liberate the country from the Nazi regime that is occupying the country. The Russian soldiers are giving the local population food and warm clothing.

 

https://www.thefocus.news/celebrity/misha-katsurin/

 

 

[formthirteen]

This article was interesting:

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

 

 

 

One could argue that these Western values and systems are what Putin is afraid of and what made him attack. Those values and systems are not compatible with Russian history and culture.

 

Will it be different with China?

 

 

It seems Munger was right in saying that Russia is uninvestible, and that China can be trusted to a certain degree to do the right thing. We just have to remember to not humiliate their politicians, and perhaps hope Xi isn't as authoritarian and delusional as Putin.

 

https://www.e-ir.info/2011/02/04/can-china-be-defined-as-an-authoritarian-state/

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by formthirteen

[cubsfan]

One could argue that these Western values and systems are what Putin is afraid of and what made him attack. Those values are not compatible with Russian history and culture.

 

Will it be different with China?

 

The only thing wrong with this view is that the West is not expansionary regimes. They are not looking to invade

other countries and occupy them forever. If Putin's Russia is afraid of the West rising standard of living - yeah -

that is a threat to Putin.  He always should have been looking out for his own people than run his country like

the Mafia.

[Spekulatius]

@changegonnacome As for Putins nukes, he can always makes the threat to use them, but that’s nothing new. I don't think I would be too scared of this threat. I grew up in Germany 10 miles away from a major army base and 15 miles away from a nuclear missile depot. I know what it means to live under a nuclear threat. Those things would be (and probably still are) primary targets in a first strike scenario,

 

You should be concerned about these things but never afraid. I would also assume that Putin is rational , otherwise there is no point assuming or discussing anything here, Imo.

 

His regular army isn’t much of a threat to NATO at all, that’s for sure and it will get weaker as he loses a lot of material and the financial and tech/trade embargo diminishes his ability to replenish it. At some point, even the Russian people will know that he did a grievous mistake as the bodies bags come back as well as the veterans from this war will tell their story. I don’t think it will remove him from power (although it increases the probability of this occurring)  but it will weaken his position even within Russia.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Spekulatius

[formthirteen]

36 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

One could argue that these Western values and systems are what Putin is afraid of and what made him attack. Those values are not compatible with Russian history and culture.

 

Will it be different with China?

 

The only thing wrong with this view is that the West is not expansionary regimes. They are not looking to invade

other countries and occupy them forever. If Putin's Russia is afraid of the West rising standard of living - yeah -

that is a threat to Putin.  He always should have been looking out for his own people than run his country like

the Mafia.

 

Western culture is expansionary which is a threat to authoritarian regimes. It's correct that Western countries are not geographically expansionary. They can buy all the resources they need with money.

 

This might change as Western culture is also trying to expand into the solar system. Maybe Elon's end game is to set up a technocratic regime on Mars because he sees where this is all heading (nuclear war, global warming, Californication, etc.)? He already moved from California to Texas, and he has talked about the possibility of dying on Mars.

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

Western culture is expansionary which is a threat to authoritarian regimes. It's correct that Western countries are not geographically expansionary. They can buy all the resources they need with money.

 

That's a real stretch. Leaders need to take care of their populations FIRST. If standards of living are rising rapidly

and somewhat evenly - countries are generally stable. Putin's move is all about EGO - his ego. That he feels 

threatened by the West is an indication of the failure of his regime to give the average Russian a better life.

Putin is not running the country for the benefit of his people - only for his own legacy.

 

You're witnessing a tragic miscalculation by Putin.

[formthirteen]

Yes, I agree.

[Gregmal]

25 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

You're witnessing a tragic miscalculation by Putin.

This is basically my read. He ll get what he wants, but the price was significantly more expensive than he ever anticipated and obviously this is one of those things where once you start there’s no turning back. He basically backed into a corner and we are starting to see the angle develop where “everyone has their media win”. Wabuffo probably hits the timeline accurately, if I had to guess. Of course, like everyone else, I reserve my right to be wrong…a right I just choose not to exercise as often as everyone else!

 

As for the rest, especially the CNN type narratives about rebuilding the USSR and all that hysteria, I’d be short the shit out of it just like all the other nonsense like COVID, polling numbers, Trump-Russia, etc. Thats been the money trade for a while now. Surprised there’s still people falling for it but again, folks believe what they want to and it can cloud their judgment. Makes investing easier for the rest of us. 

[Pelagic]

A neo-liberal intellectual's take to balance out Mearsheimer.

 

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

 

Fairly optimistic take but I do think a Russian defeat is going to be followed by a resurgence in democracy in other countries under their influence. We've already seen Kazakhstan distancing itself from Russia, refusing to send troops and actually sending aid to Ukraine in the form of medical supplies. 

 

Point 11 is a no brainer, too bad Bayraktar is a private company. Although there's evidence Ukraine is using aerovironment's drones effectively too.

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Of course, like everyone else, I reserve my right to be wrong…a right I just choose not to exercise as often as everyone else!

 

Oh, yeah - I have NO frickin idea what's gonna happen. You have our hapless President, etc. and a bunch of 

cowardly NATO countries finally waking up, and the Chinese in the background...  who the fuck knows.

 

But I'm definitely pulling for the Wabuffo scenario.

[Gregmal]

The biggest winner here will be China. Not really a question about that, IMO. Ukraine and Russia are clear losers. EU/US get….not much. Maybe more fuel for getting the good guys in come November but otherwise their victories will be these “media messages” or whatever that means. China plays peacemaker, buys cheap and valuable Russian assets, utilizes the barter chip with US/EU to gain other concessions. Don’t know if there’s an investing play off that….PTR maybe is on the radar but like the folks who just got shellacked buying Russian assets on the exchanges, I’m not sure I see a direct enough correlation to the available Chinese vehicles to make that wager. Fundamentals can be a clear buy but if the political landscape is mucky it’s irrelevant. Which I think applies 100% to Russian stuff(duh right? Lol) but also to a degree with the Chinese stuff that I can’t assess to a high enough degree of confidence.

[no_free_lunch]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Western culture is expansionary which is a threat to authoritarian regimes. It's correct that Western countries are not geographically expansionary. They can buy all the resources they need with money.

 

This might change as Western culture is also trying to expand into the solar system. Maybe Elon's end game is to set up a technocratic regime on Mars because he sees where this is all heading (nuclear war, global warming, Californication, etc.)? He already moved from California to Texas, and he has talked about the possibility of dying on Mars.

This is as I understand it as well.  I read enough pro Russian sources and this is a recurring theme.  They are pushing against western liberal cultural and monetary influence expansion.  They are positioning themselves as the saviors.  There's a kernel of truth to it but it's also nonsense when you think about it.  Many other ways to go about it including just putting their own sanctions in place if that's what they really want.  It reminds me of the Nazis justifying the invasion of Russia as destroying communism when really it was a land grab.

 

If you follow the Russian sources they are not really consistent. It's a grab bag of excuses for different audiences.  NATO, protecting Russian affiliated prople, historical claims to the lend, then western decadence.  If anyone is really interested I recommend watching Putin's speech the day before the invasion. It gave me chills but he lays it out there and I would just take him verbatim.

[Spekulatius]

Putin feeling threatened by the NATO and trying to rebuild the Sowjet Union are not mutual exclusive. You could almost say, it’s the same. If you want to rebuild the Sowjet Union, and the states you want to annex to do so join the NATO beforehand, then the NATO is a threat of course.

 

Theoretically, it is plausible that Russia would join the NATO as well in an alternative history where Russia becomes a democracy and there is no Putin. There is nothing to prevents Russia from doing so fundamentally.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Viking]

Can we take away any investment lessons from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? 
 

I think there is one big one: political risk for an investment is being significantly re-defined. This risk was already being re-defined over the past 15 months. KWEB peaked at 86 in January of 2021. Today it is trading at 24 = -72% decline. BABA was trading at $300 in Nov 2020. Today it is trading at 87 = -71% decline. Charlie Munger clearly misjudged one important aspect of his investment in BABA - political risk.
 

But up until now political risk was primarily seen as investing in companies with their base of operations in China (largely along the lines of can you trust the government or can you trust the accounting). Or more recently Russia (take a look how Van Eck Russia ETF has traded over the past 3 months). 
 

But the war in Ukraine is magnifying another big political risk (that is not yet on most investors radar) for companies with global operations: especially those with significant operations in Russia and China.

 

Obviously, all the companies who have exited Russia have destroyed shareholder value in the process. Obviously no one saw this coming. POLITICAL RISK IS NOT THEORETICAL… IT IS REAL. Given the learnings of the past 15 months, and the past 3 weeks with Russia/Ukraine, how do CEO’s and investors now view the political risks of doing business in and with China? For multinational corporations.

 

One of the usual outcomes of war is a spike in nationalism. In all countries. As relations between US and China continue to deteriorate (has been getting worse for years already) at what point do Chinese citizens decide buying Western brands is not just uncool but unpatriotic. Will this be good or bad for Apple’s iPhone sales in China? How about Nike? Or KFC? When war is waging the opinions of ‘the mob’ can change fast (usually with a little help from the government). And once they change there is no going back. And it looks to me like we are on the knifes edge in China. Is this political risk priced into Apple trading at 30X earnings today? (And if Apple sells off, given its massive size, guess what will happen to the market indexes?)
 

The second emerging political risk is where you source your production. Need stuff from Russia to build you widget? You are screwed. Europe and nat gas is the poster child of this risk manifesting.

 

If our relationship with China blows up how will that play out for Apple? People might want to stock up on their Apple products while they are still available. Now i am saying this tongue in cheek. What I know, as an investor, is the risk of a blow up with China is rising.
 

So multinational companies, already taking it on the chin in Russia, now have to be re-assessing and re-evaluating their exposure to China. Especially if the relationship with China and US/the West deteriorates further in the coming weeks. As we learned with Russia, things can get repriced very quickly and in very unexpected ways.

[Spekulatius]

@Viking If anything bad happens anywhere in the world, you want to be in USD and US assets and perhaps gold. Almost anything else wills suffer. US stocks might decline too, but they sure will do better than virtually any stock market anywhere else. This has been true forever ( at least since the 1980’s) and it is true now.