Political Posts

[Ulti]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If you haven’t heard MAGA thinks fact checking is evil.

https://www.politicaljack.com/threads/why-does-maga-hate-fact-checking.161191/

 

some pretty funny comments 

[KFRCanuk]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-global-tariffs-canada-1.7484790

 

Quote

There are three things the U.S. government is doing that affect the deficit, Paterson added.

The first is a major budget resolution that calls for trillions of dollars in spending and tax cuts, which is "something that must not increase that deficit further while keeping tax levels and competitiveness low," Paterson said.
 

The other two are measures to help make the spending and tax cuts happen without growing the deficit, including slashing government spending through Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency and tariffs, which are meant to be a new revenue source and attract investment into the United States.
 

Paterson said the American plan is to impose tariffs by sector across countries all around the world on April 2. From there, the countries that get along with the U.S. the best will be "first in line" to adjust or mitigate the tariffs.

 

Edited March 17, 2025 by KFRCanuk

[LC]

10 minutes ago, KFRCanuk said:

Paterson said the American plan is to impose tariffs by sector across countries all around the world on April 2. From there, the countries that get along with the U.S. the best will be "first in line" to adjust or mitigate the tariffs.

Sounds like the type of strongman leader/ loyalty tests done in third world dictatorships.

[cubsfan]

Another hair on fire day for the Trump/MAGA haters.

 

Been a tough month for you guys. I have much sympathy for you!

[John Hjorth]

21 hours ago, james22 said:

You're going to want to pace yourself, John, it's going to be a long four years.

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

From the Giverny Client Letter posted by Charlie [ @Charlie ] today,

 

Quote

2025 outlook

 

We remain agnostic regarding the economic and stock market outlook for the coming year. As always, there are sources of concern, whether in terms of particularly tense trade relations between Western countries, the dramatic conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, or the various technological and climatic upheavals that are transforming our lives. As the writer Sydney J. Harris said, "When I hear someone sigh that life is difficult, I am tempted to ask: Compared to what?" The current year will most likely see its share of uncertainties and worries of a geopolitical nature. We are confident, however, that our companies, as a whole, will achieve record profits in 2025. 

 

*SIGH*  I think the solution to the problem at hand is not to be born, because it eventually will cause you to die. 

[Mephistopheles]

5 hours ago, cwericb said:

 

Cubs, have you ever heard the expression... "Consider the source"? Do you ever fact check what you read?

 

But then again, there are those who listen to Trump and believe most (all?) of what he says. The man lies so much you have to wonder about the people who believe what he says. The sorry part of this is that he has sucked in some reasonably smart people as well as the die hard members of his cult.

 

It appears that some here will listen to any far right BS and take it as gospel.

 

I just don’t understand Trump’s red baseball cap. Who the hell wears a hat with a suit? I get that it’s a cult but those hats are atrocious. Can’t he at least wear a top hat like the presidents did back in the day? Bringing that trend back would surely make America great again!

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, LC said:

Sounds like the type of strongman leader/ loyalty tests done in third world dictatorships.

So if you mind your own business , then you are marked red and are automatically  an enemy.

 

Sounds like a lot of enemies to me.

 

There is actually a much simpler idea to bring the USD down:

Tax foreign investment income with a withholding tax. That will make foreign investments way less attractive. Only hits foreigners if you design it that way. Foreigners stop investing in US assets, dump treasuries and stocks and asset prices and the USD will go down.

 

Sounds much less complicated than this plan, it will get some extra tax income and helps bring down then USD and of course asset prices.

 

Tell me why this won’t work?

Edited March 17, 2025 by Spekulatius

[MMM20]

 

[rogermunibond]

Anecdotally, an esteemed poster on another Berkshire board is moving his assets out of USD and out of IBKR on precisely the taxation of non-US capital reason.  He lives in Monaco.

[cwericb]

2 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

I just don’t understand Trump’s red baseball cap. Who the hell wears a hat with a suit? I get that it’s a cult but those hats are atrocious. Can’t he at least wear a top hat like the presidents did back in the day? Bringing that trend back would surely make America great again!

 

Haha! Remember this was the same White House that was so insulted because Zelensky refused to wear a suit! Truly a circus of clowns.

Edited March 17, 2025 by cwericb

[Kizion]

49 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

Tell me why this won’t work?

Wouldn’t this raise interest rates as demand for treasuries drops?

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Mephistopheles said:

I just don’t understand Trump’s red baseball cap. Who the hell wears a hat with a suit? I get that it’s a cult but those hats are atrocious. Can’t he at least wear a top hat like the presidents did back in the day? Bringing that trend back would surely make America great again!

 

The red baseball cap is awesome! [for snipers, who have him as job]. Marketing gimmick. One may say that the incumbent POTUS normally is dressed accordingly to the position he by now holds on loan.

 

USA is still young, thus US culture is a melting pot of cultures.

[Spekulatius]

16 minutes ago, Kizion said:

Wouldn’t this raise interest rates as demand for treasuries drops?

It does, but I also expect a 100 year zero coupon treasury to have far higher interest rates than 10 or 30 year treasuries which pay out interest.

 

Unless of course the US somehow extorts below market interest rates from these century bonds from foreign buyers. Then  of course this paper would be worth way below par on issues“ and furthermore, foreign buyers would also incur exchange rate losses from the falling USD.

 

Sounds like a deal you can’t refuse.

[John Hjorth]

 

1 hour ago, rogermunibond said:

Anecdotally, an esteemed poster on another Berkshire board is moving his assets out of USD and out of IBKR on precisely the taxation of non-US capital reason.  He lives in Monaco.

 

Thank you for sharing that, Roger [ @rogermunibond ],

 

I found it. Certainly food for thought, and interesting. However, I personally think that some of his considerations about taxes may not be totally correct.

[Spekulatius]

However you think  about this particular plan, the tariffs etc, but it seems that the US moves away from a free capital market towards a more controlled/ managed economy and capital markets. I would call it the MAGA economy.

Edited March 17, 2025 by Spekulatius

[james22]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

*SIGH* 

 

Exactly.

 

This too shall pass.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, cwericb said:

 

Haha! Remember this was the same White House that was so insulted because Zelensky refused to wear a suit! Truly a circus of clown.

I have yet to see Elon in a suit too. He wears his Anthrazit badass outfit with a black baseball cap and sunglasses. It’s bring your son to work day every day as well.

The White House has become way more casual than my workplace. 
 

 

Edited March 17, 2025 by Spekulatius

[SharperDingaan]

47 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I also expect a 100 year zero coupon treasury to have far higher interest rates than 10 or 30 year treasuries which pay out interest.

Sounds like a deal you can’t refuse.

 

Should the US follow the path of most others, when it does the 100 year zero-coupon, it will ALSO be imposing a haircut. Assume the zero-coupon discounts at the 7.8% .... the $1,000 zero coupon will trade at around $547.17 [(1000/(1.078)^100)*1000]. Given that this will also be quite the shock, a 9-10%+ spike would not be unreasonable .... suggesting a transitional price in the $70-180 range per $1,000 of face value. Opportunity 

 

But more importantly .... the bulk of the annual debt service bill will be immediately eliminated, as there will be no more coupon interest to pay; a very big cash saving. Of course ... no more reserve currency either, as we currently know it either! 

   

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/wp/wp13-8.pdf

 

SD

Edited March 17, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

So if you mind your own business , then you are marked red and are automatically  an enemy.

 

Sounds like a lot of enemies to me.

 

There is actually a much simpler idea to bring the USD down:

Tax foreign investment income with a withholding tax. That will make foreign investments way less attractive. Only hits foreigners if you design it that way. Foreigners stop investing in US assets, dump treasuries and stocks and asset prices and the USD will go down.

 

Sounds much less complicated than this plan, it will get some extra tax income and helps bring down then USD and of course asset prices.

 

Tell me why this won’t work?

 

@Spekulatius,

 

To me, personally, and my household, these withholding taxes are already in place here in Denmark. The situation I think may vary from country to country.

 

In both taxable and tax deferred accounts, I'm subject to withholding taxes on basically all dividends. The only dividends we receive in which dividend taxes aren't withheld, are dividends from tracker positions in Shell and British Petroleum.

 

On Danish taxable dividend income we get credit for withheld dividend taxes in the country of the dividends origin.

Investment returns in tax deferred accounts are taxed here at 15.3 per cent, again with credit for withheld dividend taxes in the country of the dividends origin.

 

If the above may read complicated, I can assure you, that you are right. It just such a nightmare with tax returns, to check if everything ends up being correct.

 

We pay dividend taxes in Denmark, USA, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, the Nederlands, Belgium, not from the hip here sure about Luxemburg. In short, it's a fr*gging nightmare to manage and control!

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Should the US follow the path of most others, when it does the 100 year zero-coupon, it will ALSO be imposing a haircut. Assume the zero-coupon discounts at the 7.8% .... the $1,000 zero coupon will trade at around $547.17 [(1000/(1.078)^100)*1000]. Given that this will also be quite the shock, a 9-10%+ spike would not be unreasonable .... suggesting a transitional price in the $70-180 range per $1,000 of face value. Opportunity 

 

But more importantly .... the bulk of the annual debt service bill will be immediately eliminated, as there will be no more coupon interest to pay; a very big cash saving. Of course ... no more reserve currency either, as we currently know it either! 

   

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/wp/wp13-8.pdf

 

SD

 

SD [ @SharperDingaan ],

 

It reads ... South-American.

[John Hjorth]

Does anyone here on CofB&F have an opinion or better : an expectation about what to be presented from the Russian-American war talks to take place tomorrow? -Personally I do not in any way trust either of the two men involved here.

[Spekulatius]

These 100 year bonds would make great trading sardines for bets on interest rates an a  lesser extend US default risk. If these deal in deed happens , I hope they would be traded like regular treasuries.

[John Hjorth]

Mark Carney visiting France today. That's absolute unheard of, Canadas newly elected premier minister not visiting USA as the first thing.

[formthirteen]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Mark Carney visiting France today. That's absolute unheard of, Canadas newly elected premier minister not visiting USA as the first thing.

 

Sounds like Canada is at war with the US.

[Gregmal]

28 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

Sounds like Canada is at war with the US.

Yea they’re definitely going a little mental. Classic little brother syndrome.