dealraker Posted April 10 Posted April 10 15 hours ago, LC said: I gotta tell ya, I have to give a big round of applause to @Parsad for really well-calibrating this Politics thread. The amount of entertainment I get from catching up on a few pages of posts at the end of the day, it's like a soap opera! Who will insult who? Will Sanjeev need to warn or ban someone? Is someone going to come in with a mic-drop moment and silence the critics? Will we have a "kumbaya" moment between frenemies? Will a brand new participant appear? What side of the political line will they land? THECOBF delivers, yet again! On a conceptual/psychology basis (Cubs will be coming for me on this...and he should!) the politics thread on COBF follows precisely the Trump effect on all things he's associated with. I might, oh lordy I'll surely fail with this, best describe it as Fayman's entropy. Trump progresses entropy to all things he's doing, and if he's in charge then this is trait or process is going to go blockbuster prolific. Our COBF thread just mirrors this. So chaos is increasingly developing within a system that needs some sort of order to maintain itself. Grievance, jealousy, the need to exclude, the need to extract value, gotta get even, the literally endless variables that the Don brings to his leadership are all attractive initially as one entity after another believes the things that they value are not affected- that their view will prevail. But of course nearly all things are affected, and disorder is ends up getting wings so to speak. So the outcome is simply that of sprayed out disorganization where nobody knows much - far more so than in the past when we knew things such as "Oh, stocks just go up in these circumstances so don't worry." This is has been my view but I'm much more willing to entertain the possibility that Trump based entropy is strong enough to interrupt things that we least expect. Again I find it somewhat silly that investor are so pumped to buy stocks thinking when the war ends the chaos and breakdown of the US traditional system may get put on hold for a while. My guess is just the opposite, that when and if tis war gets somewhat resolved that Trump is bound and determined to bring forth a greater disturbance to the US. This doesn't mean you don't buy stocks when they are down, it just means, "What the fuck dude, you ain't been led by the Donald before...so you haven't been paying attention to what happens when he's in charge." Feyman's entopy, sort of like the body trying to pull things together to lessen breakdown over time. It is sort of maybe guaranteed not to work over time...or something like that. My view is that Trump just hastens it all...for all of us regardless of whether we support him or not. Life is great...if you can stand it!
changegonnacome Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) 5 hours ago, Zemergefen said: I understand your point of view And I understand yours.....the beauty of expanding the Lebanon front for both our discussion and for Bibi purposes is that it's both a legitimate Israeli security concern AND a means by which he gets increased control over bilateral Iran & US. So it's not either/or its both. That's why it works and if you ask me what was the 80%/20% reason he expanded the Lebanon front so aggressively on March 12th - the 80% reason was to give him increased control on US-Iranian talks if/when the US threw in the towel and was trying to exit with a deal. The 20% reason is what you said. Edited April 10 by changegonnacome
Buckeye Posted April 10 Posted April 10 CPI going up under a Democrat President = Definitely inflation…definitely their fault CPI going up under Republican President = Well, that’s just prices going up, and definitely not their fault. Huge difference.
Malmqky Posted April 10 Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, Buckeye said: CPI going up under a Democrat President = Definitely inflation…definitely their fault CPI going up under Republican President = Well, that’s just prices going up, and definitely not their fault. Huge difference. You don't get it, Republicans are fiscally conservative so of course it's not their fault!!!
DooDiligence Posted April 10 Posted April 10 This shit fittin' to get juicy. https://bekahdayyy.substack.com/p/a-message-from-amanda-the-epstein The magat's will try to deflect but eventually the chicken's gonna come home to roost.
cubsfan Posted April 10 Posted April 10 23 minutes ago, DooDiligence said: This shit fittin' to get juicy. https://bekahdayyy.substack.com/p/a-message-from-amanda-the-epstein The magat's will try to deflect but eventually the chicken's gonna come home to roost. Oh crap - oil down $20/barrel - what do we do now? Queue up that phony Epstein outrage again!! That always works!
John Hjorth Posted April 10 Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Oh crap - oil down $20/barrel - what do we do now? Queue up that phony Epstein outrage again!! That always works! Oil down $20/barrel is a serious matter! - So is oil up $20/barrel!
changegonnacome Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) 2 hours ago, dealraker said: My guess is just the opposite, that when and if tis war gets somewhat resolved that Trump is bound and determined to bring forth a greater disturbance to the US. Agree - I said many pages back I think when he was being inaugurated or certainly early in his term that a sunsetting narcissist (as he is) would seek to do 'historic' things....to etch his name permanently in the history books and on history, its a kind of immortality one can argue to leave the world utterly changed by your actions......the Ballroom, the Arc De Trump are his vein attempts to do this in the physical world of D.C........as has become clear re: the disastrous decision to attack Iran, its not so much that he was bamboozled by Bibi IMO but rather that Bibi presented the evidentiary 'cover' Trump needed to attempt something historic and overthrow Iran. Bibi, in other words, was talking to a President hunting for historic things to attempt. The question is whether having had his nose clipped in Iran whether its softened his desire for historic moments on the world stage or whether its been embarrassing enough for him........the best case for everyone is he spends the rest of his time in office designing and building silly little ballrooms or monuments around D.C. I'm sure historians will do the sleuthing work in the future but my guess is that cumulatively in terms of hours spent in 2026 that Trump spent more time reviewing & inputting into the Ballroom/Arc De Trump plans and designs than he did weighing up all the facts and intelligence around greenlighting the attack on Iran. He certainly spent more time 'building the case' for the Ballroom to the American people than he did building the case for why we had to attack Iran and that is a fact. Edited April 10 by changegonnacome
Viking Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) Iran is adding to their list of demands (release of blocked assets). Every week the straight remains closed their position strengthens. What is Trump's analysis and assessment of the situation? Wisdom from Buffett: "If you've been in the poker game for 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy." Edited April 10 by Viking
changegonnacome Posted April 10 Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, Viking said: Every week the straight remains closed their position strengthens. There is one Trump speaking point, repeated ad nauseam over the years, that we will thankfully not hear uttered again by him and that is "Obama sent Iran $1.7bn in cash"........Trump has already sent and will when this is all said and done end up putting multiples of that into the Iranian's hands to get a resolution here. Already has via the combined oil price spike plus de-sanctioning Iranian oil.
dwy000 Posted April 10 Posted April 10 28 minutes ago, Viking said: Iran is adding to their list of demands (release of blocked assets). Every week the straight remains closed their position strengthens. What is Trump's analysis and assessment of the situation? Wisdom from Buffett: "If you've been in the poker game for 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy." If you want to talk poker or cards, Iran has a strait and Trump doesnt have a pair.
Sweet Posted April 10 Posted April 10 18 minutes ago, dwy000 said: If you want to talk poker or cards, Iran has a strait and Trump doesnt have a pair. Lol. That one was funny.
Gregmal Posted April 10 Posted April 10 Man, the pissants are extra agitated this beautiful Friday morning. How sad!
Buckeye Posted April 10 Posted April 10 2 hours ago, Malmqky said: You don't get it, Republicans are fiscally conservative so of course it's not their fault!!! Hahahahaha. Yea, I can’t remember, are we still in Biden’s economy or is this Trump’s economy?! Remember when Trump said we’d be winning so much that we’d all be sick of winning!? Hahahaha.
SharperDingaan Posted April 10 Posted April 10 1 hour ago, changegonnacome said: A a sunsetting narcissist (as he is) would seek to do 'historic' things....to etch his name permanently in the history books and on history, its a kind of immortality one can argue to leave the world utterly changed by your actions......the Ballroom, the Arc De Trump are his vein attempts to do this in the physical world of D.C........ .... gets assassinated in public, and exits on a Kennedy moment. Stock markets the world over, go ballistic SD
matts Posted April 10 Posted April 10 This whole episode will be seen by future historians as such a costly unforced error. Trump has ruined whatever legacy he hoped to have.
Malmqky Posted April 10 Posted April 10 When it's all said and done, we might end up better off because of Trump. We aren't going back to status quo, for better or worse. Sometimes you have to burn the overgrown forest. I just hope we aren't all caught up in the fire, and I hope the fire doesn't get out of control.
Parsad Posted April 10 Posted April 10 5 hours ago, cubsfan said: Oh crap - oil down $20/barrel - what do we do now? Queue up that phony Epstein outrage again!! That always works! 5 hours ago, John Hjorth said: Oil down $20/barrel is a serious matter! - So is oil up $20/barrel! LOL! Glass half empty...glass half full. Everyone is looking at the same thing with two very different conclusions. Could the consensus on both sides be wrong? Worse than the optimists think, better than the pessimists? Probably the right answer! Cheers!
Parsad Posted April 10 Posted April 10 So far, tariffs have had zero positive effect on trade deficit and budget deficit remains huge...HUGE! Is this how a casino in Atlantic City went under? Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/us-tariff-revenue-dropped-by-over-4-billion-in-march-its-down-almost-30-since-october-190535076.html
aws Posted April 10 Posted April 10 24 minutes ago, Parsad said: So far, tariffs have had zero positive effect on trade deficit and budget deficit remains huge...HUGE! Is this how a casino in Atlantic City went under? Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/us-tariff-revenue-dropped-by-over-4-billion-in-march-its-down-almost-30-since-october-190535076.html Probably because people figured out how to cheat on the tariffs. Foreign exporters setup shell companies in the US to take delivery of their goods, lied about the value of what they were importing, and sold the goods duty paid to the actual importers. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/tariffs-trade-import-fraud.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Z1A.Cdey.JtTKq6d0XDjj&smid=url-share
Maverick47 Posted April 11 Posted April 11 1 hour ago, aws said: Probably because people figured out how to cheat on the tariffs. Foreign exporters setup shell companies in the US to take delivery of their goods, lied about the value of what they were importing, and sold the goods duty paid to the actual importers. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/tariffs-trade-import-fraud.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Z1A.Cdey.JtTKq6d0XDjj&smid=url-share I’m reminded of Munger’s comment that “People who create systems that are easily gamed belong in the lowest circle of hell.” Seems appropriate.
dealraker Posted April 11 Posted April 11 10 hours ago, cubsfan said: Oh man, the haters are out in force today! Cubs, you "invested" here? I'll bet you wouldn't sent a dime to any entity associated with the name Trump. https://fortune.com/2026/04/10/trump-world-liberty-financial-crypto-tokens-insider-loans/
Gregmal Posted April 11 Posted April 11 Guess we will see if all the "rapist" loving Weinsteiners in CA really practice what they preach when it comes time to vote! What a tough break for Mr. Swalwell!
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