Viking Posted March 30 Posted March 30 16 minutes ago, Gregmal said: How much of this is factored in by the fact that energy prices are....already up substantially? Is there an end to the infinity loop idea of "escalation = higher prices" when translated into the real world supply/demand...or do we have pump and dump dynamics in here already where a certain amount of hype is in the current prices? Or does energy simply +10% every times theres a new tweet or bomb dropped? @Gregmal, when do you think the Straight of Hormuz will open again? (By open, I mean back to 'normal'.) I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to understand that the answer to the question above is important when trying to forecast prices for oil/LNG, refined products, fertilizer, helium etc. If the straight stays closed for another month we will see much higher prices. This will ripple through the economy - slower growth and higher inflation. If the straight opens in the next week prices will start to come down. The global economy will start to healing process. Of course, the answer (when) is unknowable (just like it was 4 weeks ago). The fact it is unknowable doesn't mean it is not important.
Parsad Posted March 30 Posted March 30 2 hours ago, cwericb said: The problem I see is that Trump believes that he and his minions are the smartest people on earth and that the rest of the world are just not all that bright. One only has to look at how he treats other world leaders to get a grasp of his attitudes The only Iranians that that I have known have all been very smart and intelligent people. I believe Trumps arrogance will be costly for many people. The lesson here is never underestimate your enemy. This was supposed to be over in 4 days, four weeks, ...... One might also suggest that he should never underestimated his allies either. Threaten, punish and insult your friends and then simply assume they will bail you out at your beck and call, on a war for which you had no real plan nor consultation with your allies because the US "doesn't need help from anyone", is not a great plan for launching a war. Problem is he's lived his whole life like this...and frankly, it's worked most of the time for him. If Cubs is a 100% believer in the Trump Way...what does that tell you about Trump himself? Hook or crook, success or fail, truth or lie, skill or luck...whatever you want to call it, can you say he's not winning? He has the Senate, Supreme Court and Presidency. He's got enough Democrats to flip some decisions through Congress. He shut down the southern border like he said he would and bypassed Constitutional Law and due process. He applied his tariffs and forced other countries to make new deals...doesn't matter how many successfully, but he got some of the response he wanted. He forced DEI and equality out of the system like he said he was going to do and had universities begging him for funding. He forced NATO countries to meet the 2% of GDP military expense...which they've all hit now as of this week...many are aiming for higher now. He's won all of his cases or managed to escape from the clutches of the law for the most part. Multiple assassins couldn't take him out! He deployed ICE and the National Guard onto American citizens, created a shitstorm, multiple citizens killed, and still keeps going forward with whatever he wants to do. He's avoided the Trump Epstein Files from taking him down so far...how the fuck he did it, I don't know...oh, he started a war and energy crisis! He's tamed, befriended or cooled the jets of Russia, China, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and now is after Iran. I've only listed a half-finished list...and he's still going around the world doing whatever the shit he wants! I can't stand this fucking guy, but he's getting more shit done and undone than the last four Presidents combined...including his own first term! Much of it is half-assed, incomplete or creating other problems...and it's destroying his chances of control after the mid-terms...but he's a god-damn Houdini! Al Capone and Saddam Hussein wish they had the same luck! Even Jeffrey Epstein wishes he was as lucky as Trump! Cheers!
Gregmal Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Viking said: @Gregmal, when do you think the Straight of Hormuz will open again? (By open, I mean back to 'normal'.) I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to understand that the answer to the question above is important when trying to forecast prices for oil/LNG, refined products, fertilizer, helium etc. If the straight stays closed for another month we will see much higher prices. This will ripple through the economy - slower growth and higher inflation. If the straight opens in the next week prices will start to come down. The global economy will start to healing process. Of course, the answer (when) is unknowable (just like it was 4 weeks ago). The fact it is unknowable doesn't mean it is not important. Same question I posed to Spek? How long you really believe the world, and especially the Arab oil empire let’s the SOH stays closed? Over/under 3 months? Say it’s close to a certainty that it’s under…Would you disagree? From there then it’s just about spot prices vs end product prices. Spot prices have already been massively bid up, largely on speculation. End prices? Not so much sans prices at the pump. It doesn’t really seem that open ended and ambiguous. Edited March 30 by Gregmal
John Hjorth Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 16 hours ago, Viking said: ... NATO countries need to start taking defence seriously. ... @Viking, and also Mike [ @cubsfan ], NATO [March 27th 2026] : The Sectretary General's Report 2025 : p. 66 : - - - o 0 o - - - All European NATO member countries are by now in compliance with internal and mutual NATO agreements. [<- !] - - - o 0 o - - - To take it to the extremes of things of historical costs : On Eastern Funen, Denmark an old Viking ship [<- hint! ] was discovered in 1935 in a grave mound [ Wikipedia : Ladby Ship ], about 17.1 kms from here, about 23 minutes by car, as the crow flies 11.3 kms distance. The discussion here about European defence spending reminds me gradually more and more about trying desperately to grab for the historical construction costs for the Ladby Ship to get the pricing right for the tickets to the museum built around it. Edited March 31 by John Hjorth
Parsad Posted March 30 Posted March 30 34 minutes ago, Red Lion said: I know that this is the consensus view, and I'm not saying that there shouldn't be any oversight in private credit, but private credit usually sits in one of two places: 1) Insurance company (particularly life insurance companies) balance sheets. 2) LP funds. I think the Insurance companies could conceivably be a systematic risk, but much less likely than banks with demand deposits. Also, this is the one area that does have a fair amount of oversight. From what I can tell the insurance companies are for the most part holding the investment grade / investment grade equivalent private credit on their balance sheets. All the "sky is falling" articles are focused on the leveraged lending side of the market, and as far as I know the vast majority of these assets are sitting in LP funds or BDCs. Neither one of these poise systematic risk. Maybe these funds go south, investors lose money, and have a reduced appetite for investing in private credit going forward. But I have a very hard time seeing private credit starting a financial crisis. Agree with you. Insurance is heavily regulated...I don't think that will be the problem. The sheer size of LP's, private equity, hedge funds, etc and their exposure...I think any constraint on liquidity will start to become apparent. It won't create a systemic risk because banks, insurers and public companies have a lot of oversight. But it could create problems in the private credit market, especially if there is correlated risk amongst them. And then indirectly, if that market tightens significantly on credit, it could lead to a recession. Cheers!
cwericb Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) While most are concerned about the price and availability of petroleum, there hasn't been a lot said about fertilizer. But the price and shortage of fertilizer is going to have a big impact on farmers and added to the price jump on petroleum is a double whammy on farmers. This, of course is going to have a big increase on the price of groceries later this year. Edited March 30 by cwericb
cwericb Posted March 30 Posted March 30 12 minutes ago, Parsad said: Problem is he's lived his whole life like this...and frankly, it's worked most of the time for him. If Cubs is a 100% believer in the Trump Way...what does that tell you about Trump himself? Hook or crook, success or fail, truth or lie, skill or luck...whatever you want to call it, can you say he's not winning? He has the Senate, Supreme Court and Presidency. He's got enough Democrats to flip some decisions through Congress. He shut down the southern border like he said he would and bypassed Constitutional Law and due process. He applied his tariffs and forced other countries to make new deals...doesn't matter how many successfully, but he got some of the response he wanted. He forced DEI and equality out of the system like he said he was going to do and had universities begging him for funding. He forced NATO countries to meet the 2% of GDP military expense...which they've all hit now as of this week...many are aiming for higher now. He's won all of his cases or managed to escape from the clutches of the law for the most part. Multiple assassins couldn't take him out! He deployed ICE and the National Guard onto American citizens, created a shitstorm, multiple citizens killed, and still keeps going forward with whatever he wants to do. He's avoided the Trump Epstein Files from taking him down so far...how the fuck he did it, I don't know...oh, he started a war and energy crisis! He's tamed, befriended or cooled the jets of Russia, China, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and now is after Iran. I've only listed a half-finished list...and he's still going around the world doing whatever the shit he wants! I can't stand this fucking guy, but he's getting more shit done and undone than the last four Presidents combined...including his own first term! Much of it is half-assed, incomplete or creating other problems...and it's destroying his chances of control after the mid-terms...but he's a god-damn Houdini! Al Capone and Saddam Hussein wish they had the same luck! Even Jeffrey Epstein wishes he was as lucky as Trump! Cheers! Or, has he set up a house of cards ?
Parsad Posted March 30 Posted March 30 How many supply/demand spikes have we been through in the last five years? Oil is the most significant, since it is so widely used and in such large amounts globally, within every single industry and every economy. But eventually price spikes subside, companies that cut cost find those efficiencies translate well going forward, and the system slowly gets back to normal. Coffee costs me three times as much today as five years ago...I stock up whenever its on sale! We had spikes in lumber, steel, cocoa, shipping rates, etc. You name it! Now its gas, urea, helium, etc. It too shall pass! Cheers!
Viking Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Same question I posed to Spek? How long you really believe the world, and especially the Arab oil empire let’s the SOH stays closed? Over/under 3 months? Say it’s close to a certainty that it’s under…Would you disagree? From there then it’s just about spot prices vs end product prices. Spot prices have already been massively bid up, largely on speculation. End prices? Not so much sans prices at the pump. It doesn’t really seem that open ended and ambiguous. I have no idea. 4 weeks ago, I would have told you it wouldn't ever be shut down. So that tells you how smart I am. I am not assuming the straight will open because it 'has to'. That is what I would have said 4 weeks ago - and it has proven to be completely wrong. I underestimated the regime in Iran. What is the pain to Iran to string this along for another month or more? Modest. They are able to sell their oil, and now that sanctions have come off, they are able to capture top $. The regime in Iran fears peace, not war. What is the pain to the US if the straight remains closed? Modest in the near term. It is the rest of the world that is bearing the majority of the cost. It really is an interesting set up. It is like a blood feud. With the cost of the feud largely being borne by external parties. And outsiders watching keep expecting the participants to all of sudden behave rationally. Because they 'have to'. Really? That's not how blood feuds work... Edited March 30 by Viking
Parsad Posted March 30 Posted March 30 4 minutes ago, cwericb said: Or, has he set up a house of cards ? Almost every time people have been concerned that the house of cards are falling dominoes they've been wrong. And even the couple of times that they were falling dominoes, were generational opportunities to buy more into the market or stay the course rather than bailing. My Dad lost all of his properties over 10 years after the interest rate spike in 1981...like dominoes...too much leverage. I don't use any leverage for that reason. I not only lived through, but successfully invested through, the Tech Bubble, GFC and Global Pandemic...I can get through this and so can you! Cheers!
Viking Posted March 30 Posted March 30 How will the war in the Persian Gulf end? Below are some possibilities... (does Trump have any unmarried kids????) ----------- Blood feuds tend to end through one of a few mechanisms: Exhaustion or attrition – one side is eliminated, weakened, or loses the will/capacity to continue. Negotiated settlement – mediated peace, often involving compensation (money, land, marriage alliances, or restitution). External authority intervention – a state, court system, or dominant power imposes order and punishes further retaliation. Social or cultural shift – norms change (e.g., rule of law replaces honor-based retaliation). Common external threat – both sides unify against a larger danger. In practice, durable endings usually require credible enforcement (rule of law) plus a face-saving settlement that allows both sides to stop without appearing to lose.
cwericb Posted March 30 Posted March 30 57 minutes ago, Parsad said: Almost every time people have been concerned that the house of cards are falling dominoes they've been wrong. And even the couple of times that they were falling dominoes, were generational opportunities to buy more into the market or stay the course rather than bailing. My Dad lost all of his properties over 10 years after the interest rate spike in 1981...like dominoes...too much leverage. I don't use any leverage for that reason. I not only lived through, but successfully invested through, the Tech Bubble, GFC and Global Pandemic...I can get through this and so can you! Cheers! Yup I learned that lesson long ago. Never sold a share of Fairfax since 2007 and it was a rocky road at times. Like you, I have one hard and fast rule: Never buy on margin and I have not owed anyone anything since 1987. Similar story like your Dad, I had a friend who got into real estate back then when inflation and interest rates were crazy. (My mortgage rate was 17.5%!). Friend would buy a rental property, wait for a few months then use the increased equity as a down payment on his next purchase. Rinse and repeat. I told him he was nuts because when rates and prices dropped he would be bankrupt. Worked for him for a couple of years, then we had a recession and he lost everything.
cwericb Posted March 30 Posted March 30 I kinda agree with this TACO scenario ............ "As of late March 2026, Democratic strategist James Carville has repeatedly predicted that President Donald Trump will resign from office, suggesting he will "walk away" due to the pressures of a difficult second term. Key Details of Carville's Prediction: Timing: Carville suggests the resignation could happen following the 2026 midterm elections, which he predicts will result in heavy losses for Republicans, potentially giving Democrats control of Congress. Reasons for Resignation: Carville claims Trump lacks the stamina for a challenging political environment and will find the presidency "untenable" once his influence begins to wane, calling him "soft" and "deteriorating". Pardon Scenario: Carville has speculated that if Trump resigns, he will secure a deal with Vice President JD Vance to be pardoned, ensuring he faces no further prosecution."
Hektor Posted March 30 Posted March 30 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: So what happens when Pakistan descends into chaos? They will never. There is something magical about them that they always find some patron to support them
Hektor Posted March 30 Posted March 30 2 hours ago, Viking said: anyone who tells you anything with certainty is full of shit (on both sides... the doomers... and also the 'nothing to see here' types). +1
SharperDingaan Posted March 30 Posted March 30 13 minutes ago, cwericb said: I kinda agree with this TACO scenario ............ "As of late March 2026, Democratic strategist James Carville has repeatedly predicted that President Donald Trump will resign from office, suggesting he will "walk away" due to the pressures of a difficult second term. Key Details of Carville's Prediction: Timing: Carville suggests the resignation could happen following the 2026 midterm elections, which he predicts will result in heavy losses for Republicans, potentially giving Democrats control of Congress. Reasons for Resignation: Carville claims Trump lacks the stamina for a challenging political environment and will find the presidency "untenable" once his influence begins to wane, calling him "soft" and "deteriorating". Pardon Scenario: Carville has speculated that if Trump resigns, he will secure a deal with Vice President JD Vance to be pardoned, ensuring he faces no further prosecution." Dead men are a lot safer; they tell no tales, and their dirt dies with them. SD
Parsad Posted March 30 Posted March 30 20 minutes ago, cwericb said: Yup I learned that lesson long ago. Never sold a share of Fairfax since 2007 and it was a rocky road at times. Like you, I have one hard and fast rule: Never buy on margin and I have not owed anyone anything since 1987. Similar story like your Dad, I had a friend who got into real estate back then when inflation and interest rates were crazy. (My mortgage rate was 17.5%!). Friend would buy a rental property, wait for a few months then use the increased equity as a down payment on his next purchase. Rinse and repeat. I told him he was nuts because when rates and prices dropped he would be bankrupt. Worked for him for a couple of years, then we had a recession and he lost everything. I was watching "Dumb Money" last night...had not seen it. But the whole story around Gabe Plotkin...manages $16B and has every advantage in the world...but he experienced an outlier event that exposed his unlimited risk position. Smart people can do very stupid things that ruin everything...and often it is related to too much leverage or downside risk. As long as the average person manages that risk and is unleveraged, it is highly unlikely they will become poor if they spend less than they make. So simple and easy, yet so difficult for most people to do. Cheers!
Viking Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Parsad said: I was watching "Dumb Money" last night...had not seen it. But the whole story around Gabe Plotkin...manages $16B and has every advantage in the world...but he experienced an outlier event that exposed his unlimited risk position. Smart people can do very stupid things that ruin everything...and often it is related to too much leverage or downside risk. As long as the average person manages that risk and is unleveraged, it is highly unlikely they will become poor if they spend less than they make. So simple and easy, yet so difficult for most people to do. Cheers! Part of the problem is it happens in small increments (it’s usually not binary… one bad decision). An older family friend recently shared that they had lost a bundle ‘investing’ in silver - they bought near the highs. Back luck… And then last week I got another piece of information that explained where the logic for the silver investment had come from. It appears a couple of years ago this same person ‘invested’ in a pre-build condo in Vancouver. Possession was last year, was forced to buy it, and he is likely down well over $100,000. The investment in silver this year was an attempt to re-coup his loss on the condo. Bad decisions compounding over time. The result is a financial disaster. i don’t think this guy is unique. Edited March 30 by Viking
Maverick47 Posted March 30 Posted March 30 1 hour ago, Parsad said: Almost every time people have been concerned that the house of cards are falling dominoes they've been wrong. And even the couple of times that they were falling dominoes, were generational opportunities to buy more into the market or stay the course rather than bailing. My Dad lost all of his properties over 10 years after the interest rate spike in 1981...like dominoes...too much leverage. I don't use any leverage for that reason. I not only lived through, but successfully invested through, the Tech Bubble, GFC and Global Pandemic...I can get through this and so can you! Cheers! Thanks Sanjeev! This is the kind of wisdom that makes membership on the COBF so valuable to me….
John Hjorth Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: Dead men are a lot safer; they tell no tales, and their dirt dies with them. SD Reminds of this X post - I saw it about an hour ago, i haven't stopped laughing yet : If you can't get the showel under your enemy, by direct attacks, using bombs or whatever nasty, just accuse your adversary of beeing gay, and he immedially will go into cardiac arrest or suffer a large cerebral haemorrhage, especially if Muslim! Indeed very nasty POTUS tactics! The rules arte : 'No rules!' - Clearly a punch under the belt here! <And now I have to stop!>: Edited March 30 by John Hjorth
dealraker Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 2 hours ago, Parsad said: Almost every time people have been concerned that the house of cards are falling dominoes they've been wrong. And even the couple of times that they were falling dominoes, were generational opportunities to buy more into the market or stay the course rather than bailing. My Dad lost all of his properties over 10 years after the interest rate spike in 1981...like dominoes...too much leverage. I don't use any leverage for that reason. I not only lived through, but successfully invested through, the Tech Bubble, GFC and Global Pandemic...I can get through this and so can you! Cheers! After my stint in the bank/insurance analyst thing I was very active as a licensed contractor and built 52 houses, most custom, but on the side I was doing lakefront spec houses. Built 13 Burger Kings and a couple apartment complexes, all good. But then? Whoops! Here comes 20% interest rates and plus 12% mortgage rates... and 7 of my spec houses had several birthdays before I could sell them. This happens when my work dried up to about nothing. I was a one meal a day man for a while, luckily I was single. I went to my banker at BB and T and said, "I can pay you but it will be a bit late." He replied, "Oh, don't worry, nobody else is on time either and we sure as hell don't want your houses." Luckily it quickly fixed itself, at least here on the lake it did. So I'd gone around and used my custom home building and commercial building profits to buy lake lots that were fast appreciating. But my dumbass self had to screw it up by leveraging up with houses on these lots. Worked great for a few years then kaboom for 3 years. Lucky to escape that one. And my friend, who had no clue how little money I had, persuaded me to go into the insurance business with him. A life changing event. Edited March 30 by dealraker
SharperDingaan Posted March 30 Posted March 30 55 minutes ago, Viking said: Part of the problem is it happens in small increments (it’s usually not binary… one bad decision). An older family friend recently shared that they had lost a bundle ‘investing’ in silver - they bought near the highs. Back luck… And then last week I got another piece of information that explained where the logic for the silver investment had come from. It appears a couple of years ago this same person ‘invested’ in a pre-build condo in Vancouver. Possession was last year, was forced to buy it, and he is likely down well over $100,000. The investment in silver this year was an attempt to re-coup his loss on the condo. Bad decisions compounding over time. The result is a financial disaster. i don’t think this guy is unique. Always remember that those posting on COBF are not representative of the population as a whole. Many are self-made, and the survivors standing atop the piles of skulls of those who blew up. SD
Spekulatius Posted March 30 Posted March 30 6 hours ago, Castanza said: I'm not defending Trump here, but the continued harping on this point is getting old. Perhaps last year US intelligence thought all the Uranium assets were destroyed and perhaps this year intelligence discovered it was not. I mean, there is constant covert operations in these countries by US, Israeli and MI6 resources. The public is and has always been on a need to know basis. Trump may be a a serial liar; but that doesn't mean he can't actually pivot if new info comes to light. Again, not defending the situation or Trump....just saying the real world is extremely complex...Some on here act like the Iranian regime is a bunch of goodie goodies that are 100% transparent with international authorities and comply with all standards and policies for nuclear development....that's ridiculous to believe....I think there is a good chance some shit was hidden or recovered after the first attack and western intelligence discovered this later on. Have you ever seen or met a liar who is just a liar?
Spekulatius Posted March 30 Posted March 30 (edited) 3 hours ago, Gregmal said: Do you believe that the Gulf State Thugs(common refrain from western folks) are just going to endlessly sit idle and let Iran cost them billions a day, forever, by keeping things closed? I don’t know what the Gulf states will do. They have the most vested interested to open it, but don’t really have the means to do so. My guest guess I would go along with Polymarket consensus. The bet that traffic is back to normal by the end of April is 22% and of course is falling day by day as time progresses without apparent resolution. https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30 Edited March 30 by Spekulatius
Castanza Posted March 30 Posted March 30 17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Have you ever seen or met a liar who is just a liar? Not following you
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