Political Posts

[ourkid8]

1 minute ago, Viking said:

@ourkid8, if you are asking if I would prefer to get arrested (Israel) or shot (Iran) for protesting… I would chose the Israeli option. 

You mean getting shot by Mossad who openly admitted they were on the ground, sure!    

‘We Are with You'

[ourkid8]

9 minutes ago, Viking said:

From JP Morgan (via @Rory_Johnston on Twitter)

 

There is a lag from the time oil production stops to when it impacts the global economy. The map below provides some great insight - the rough timing of when oil deliveries will drop off for each region. 

• Africa: March 20 - April 1
• Asia: April 1
• Europe: April 10
• US: April 15
• Australia: April 20

This reminds me of a Lehman moment which is slowly approaching!  
 

Listen to Eric Nuttall on BNN explain the upcoming oil shortage. If Houthis also block Bab al-Mandan - it’s game over. 

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/market-call/2026/03/26/eric-nuttalls-market-outlook-energy-stocks/

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

This reminds me of a Lehman moment which is slowly approaching!  
 

Listen to Eric Nuttall on BNN explain the upcoming oil shortage. If Houthis also block Bab al-Mandan - it’s game over. 

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/market-call/2026/03/26/eric-nuttalls-market-outlook-energy-stocks/

 

All this means is that Yemen and the Houthis will lose more ports, power plants, infrastructure assets, etc. -- just like last time.

[ourkid8]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

All this means is that Yemen and the Houthis will lose more ports, power plants, infrastructure assets, etc. -- just like last time.

Did you listen to Eric? What’s your thought process on the current impending energy shortage situation? 

Edited March 30 by ourkid8

[Spekulatius]

Strippers and bartenders near army and airbases always know when something is up:
 

 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, ourkid8 said:

Did you listen to Eric? What’s your thought process on the current impending energy shortage situation? 

 

There is a war going on, which usually means sacrifice and pain.  No nukes for Iran is the most important outcome.  The SOH & Houthis will be open at some point.

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

This reminds me of a Lehman moment which is slowly approaching!  
 

Listen to Eric Nuttall on BNN explain the upcoming oil shortage. If Houthis also block Bab al-Mandan - it’s game over. 

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/market-call/2026/03/26/eric-nuttalls-market-outlook-energy-stocks/

 

It's nothing like the GFC and Lehman!  I remember every detail about that period.  Like now, I was up before markets opened and on till markets closed looking for opportunity.  But back then, I don't think I missed a single day watching what was going on...it was nuts!    

 

The biggest difference was the amount of direct leverage being used by institutions, in particular mortgage companies and brokers/investment banks, and especially indirect leverage through derivatives.  Even the banking system was far more leveraged and had much higher exposure to Level 3 assets compared to today with very little in capital buffers.  Liquidity was a massive problem in the system, and as institutions failed, they were about to take down one another.  The one area this time that may be exposed is the private lending/private credit market.  It's been extremely lax in oversight.

 

You will see failures at different companies and industries if the war continues and oil prices stay high, but nothing like what we saw during the GFC.  This will be more similar to a smaller version of the pandemic...some regions of the world getting hit hard, companies finding ways to become more efficient and survive, some businesses having to slow or shut down, input prices increasing at each level...producer, refiner, manufacturer, wholesaler, distributor, retailer...ultimately paid by the consumer. 

 

But with this crisis, these businesses will be more efficient when the war ends and oil prices stabilize/drop.  You may see a mini bubble in demand...both pre-war (hoarding, specific items) and post-war (probably everything as confidence returns/oil prices drop/tariffs drop off).  In fact, using the pandemic as a model, should give you a better idea of how it will play out and what industries might have massive rebounds!  Cheers!

 

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

It's nothing like the GFC and Lehman!  I remember every detail about that period.  Like now, I was up before markets opened and on till markets closed looking for opportunity.  But back then, I don't think I missed a single day watching what was going on...it was nuts!    

 

The biggest difference was the amount of direct leverage being used by institutions, in particular mortgage companies and brokers/investment banks, and especially indirect leverage through derivatives.  Even the banking system was far more leveraged and had much higher exposure to Level 3 assets compared to today with very little in capital buffers.  Liquidity was a massive problem in the system, and as institutions failed, they were about to take down one another.  The one area this time that may be exposed is the private lending/private credit market.  It's been extremely lax in oversight.

 

You will see failures at different companies and industries if the war continues and oil prices stay high, but nothing like what we saw during the GFC.  This will be more similar to a smaller version of the pandemic...some regions of the world getting hit hard, companies finding ways to become more efficient and survive, some businesses having to slow or shut down, input prices increasing at each level...producer, refiner, manufacturer, wholesaler, distributor, retailer...ultimately paid by the consumer. 

 

But with this crisis, these businesses will be more efficient when the war ends and oil prices stabilize/drop.  You may see a mini bubble in demand...both pre-war (hoarding, specific items) and post-war (probably everything as confidence returns/oil prices drop/tariffs drop off).  In fact, using the pandemic as a model, should give you a better idea of how it will play out and what industries might have massive rebounds!  Cheers!

 

 

I do t know - one was a financial issue the - the current one is that the 10% of the most important substance on the planet is missing for who knows how long.

If shortages of all sorts of stuff pop up and inflation rears its ugly head combined with deflation in other sectors (services , Hightech) this would be ugly for asset prices throughout and my guess is that we could see a lot of things breaking in the financial sector as well.

 

Just a scenario but I certainly think that this situation has a potential to create a very ugly situation.

[Maverick47]

43 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I do t know - one was a financial issue the - the current one is that the 10% of the most important substance on the planet is missing for who knows how long.

If shortages of all sorts of stuff pop up and inflation rears its ugly head combined with deflation in other sectors (services , Hightech) this would be ugly for asset prices throughout and my guess is that we could see a lot of things breaking in the financial sector as well.

 

Just a scenario but I certainly think that this situation has a potential to create a very ugly situation.

Interesting that both situations involve fluid dynamics — flows of money versus flows of petroleum and petroleum products.

 

I’m also somewhat curious about the increased demand for fuel driven by the military actions.  Seems to me that sustained aerial combat has to be consuming significant amounts of jet fuel.  
 

But the knock-on effects of limitations on oil supplies for the rest of the global economy may be analogous to the interconnectedness of balance sheets that was uncovered by the GFC.

 

Obviously not a direct historical repeat, but something that is likely to strongly rhyme.  Central banks can certainly try to inject financial liquidity into the system, but we are likely to find out the difference between monetary flows and oil flows and the ability of one to address scarcity in the other.

 

”May you live in interesting times.”

 

 

[cwericb]

Iran seems to have an inexhaustible supply of drones that seem to be beyond all efforts to destroy them.

 

So what makes anyone think that Iran's nuclear assets have all been destroyed?

 

I mean, Trump previously bragged that Iran's nuclear facilities were all obliterated just a few months ago. But obviously that was a lie since Trump has felt it necessary to declare war, oops sorry, to make "an excursion" into Iran to do what he said he had previously done. 

 

By the way, has anyone heard anything about those Epstein files lately? 

 

Some people are so easily led. 

[Hektor]

13 hours ago, Viking said:

From JP Morgan (via @Rory_Johnston on Twitter)

 

There is a lag from the time oil production stops to when it impacts the global economy. The map below provides some great insight - the rough timing of when oil deliveries will drop off for each region. 

• Africa: March 20 - April 1
• Asia: April 1
• Europe: April 10
• US: April 15
• Australia: April 20

Thanks for the visual, @Viking

 

Wouldn't the % of oil (% via Hormuz as well as % of consumption) matter for impact? For e.g. 80% of Pakistan's needs pass through Hormuz. May be about 1-3% for USA?

Edited March 30 by Hektor

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Hektor said:

Wouldn't the % of oil (% via Hormuz as well as % of consumption) matter? For e.g. 80% of Pakistan's needs pass through Hormuz. May be about 1-3% for USA?

Of course. But it’s less dramatic being practical. 

[Castanza]

2 hours ago, cwericb said:

Trump previously bragged that Iran's nuclear facilities were all obliterated just a few months ago. But obviously that was a lie since Trump has felt it necessary to declare war, oops sorry, to make "an excursion" into Iran to do what he said he had previously done. 

 

I'm not defending Trump here, but the continued harping on this point is getting old. Perhaps last year US intelligence thought all the Uranium assets were destroyed and perhaps this year intelligence discovered it was not. I mean, there is constant covert operations in these countries by US, Israeli and MI6 resources. The public is and has always been on a need to know basis. Trump may be a a serial liar; but that doesn't mean he can't actually pivot if new info comes to light. Again, not defending the situation or Trump....just saying the real world is extremely complex...Some on here act like the Iranian regime is a bunch of goodie goodies that are 100% transparent with international authorities and comply with all standards and policies for nuclear development....that's ridiculous to believe....I think there is a good chance some shit was hidden or recovered after the first attack and western intelligence discovered this later on. 

 

Edited March 30 by Castanza

[Malmqky]

https://s2n.news/story/06aa6b5605a5

 

US-Iran War: Pentagon weighs ground operations, troops in Middle East surge past 50,000

 

And ya'll wonder why people are nervous about a forever war.

Edited March 30 by Malmqky

[dwy000]

55 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

I'm not defending Trump here, but the continued harping on this point is getting old. Perhaps last year US intelligence thought all the Uranium assets were destroyed and perhaps this year intelligence discovered it was not. I mean, there is constant covert operations in these countries by US, Israeli and MI6 resources. The public is and has always been on a need to know basis. Trump may be a a serial liar; but that doesn't mean he can't actually pivot if new info comes to light. Again, not defending the situation or Trump....just saying the real world is extremely complex...Some on here act like the Iranian regime is a bunch of goodie goodies that are 100% transparent with international authorities and comply with all standards and policies for nuclear development....that's ridiculous to believe....I think there is a good chance some shit was hidden or recovered after the first attack and western intelligence discovered this later on. 

 

The issue with continued harping on this point is not just that he lied (that's just a given with Trump) but that it is exactly the same rationale being used to justify the current war.  If the President lies thru his teeth about the success last time, what exactly is the goal this time, what are we doing differently since last time didn't work and how will people know if it's actually been achieved.  

 

I agree there's a need to know info level in war, especially at the detailed operational level, but not when it comes to the entire objective of the war, what the goals are and actually telling the truth about what's being achieved. We are spending $bns we can't afford, costing lives, disrupting global trade and raising prices and we can't even trust the President to tell us why and how it's going. 

[cwericb]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 

I'm not defending Trump here, but the continued harping on this point is getting old. Perhaps last year US intelligence thought all the Uranium assets were destroyed and perhaps this year intelligence discovered it was not. I mean, there is constant covert operations in these countries by US, Israeli and MI6 resources. The public is and has always been on a need to know basis. Trump may be a a serial liar; but that doesn't mean he can't actually pivot if new info comes to light. Again, not defending the situation or Trump....just saying the real world is extremely complex...Some on here act like the Iranian regime is a bunch of goodie goodies that are 100% transparent with international authorities and comply with all standards and policies for nuclear development....that's ridiculous to believe....I think there is a good chance some shit was hidden or recovered after the first attack and western intelligence discovered this later on. 

 

 

The problem I see is that Trump believes that he and his minions are the smartest people on earth and that the rest of the world are just not all that bright. One only has to look at how he treats other world leaders to get a grasp of his attitudes

The only Iranians that that I have known have all been very smart and intelligent people.  I believe Trumps arrogance will be costly for many people.

 

The lesson here is never underestimate your enemy.  This was supposed to be over in 4 days, four weeks, ...... 

 

One might also suggest that he should never underestimated his allies either.

 

Threaten, punish and insult your friends and then simply assume they will bail you out at your beck and call, on a war for which you had no real plan nor consultation with your allies because the US "doesn't need help from anyone", is not a great plan for launching a war. 

 

 

 

[Buckeye]

Someone should tell the dumb, meathead Joe Rogan that he’s one of the biggest dorks of the movement.  Practically a leader. 
 

WAFI

 

“It becomes a movement of a bunch of fucking dorks because a lot of them are dorks,” Rogan told guest Dave Smith on Thursday’s episode of his podcast. “A lot of them, these really weird, fuckin’ uninteresting, unintelligent people that have got something they cling to — and there’s a lot of people that are just real genuine patriots, and they’re all lumped into this one group and you got to accept the dorks, too? Fuck that!”

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

Thanks for the visual, @Viking

 

Wouldn't the % of oil (% via Hormuz as well as % of consumption) matter for impact? For e.g. 80% of Pakistan's needs pass through Hormuz. May be about 1-3% for USA?

So what happens when Pakistan descends into chaos? What happens with their nuclear weapons?

 

These are the negative externalities that we need to be concerned about.

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

Thanks for the visual, @Viking

 

Wouldn't the % of oil (% via Hormuz as well as % of consumption) matter for impact? For e.g. 80% of Pakistan's needs pass through Hormuz. May be about 1-3% for USA?

 

The closure of the straight is impacting many foundational products: oil, LNG, refined products (propane, jet fuel etc), helium, fertilizers... etc. These a re commodities. Much higher prices in one region of the world - given enough time - will (generally) eventually be felt in other regions - traders will arbitrage the growing price differences.

 

And yes, this is a big science experiment - we have never experienced a disruption like this in the past. So anyone who tells you anything with certainty is full of shit (on both sides... the doomers... and also the 'nothing to see here' types).

[Viking]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

So what happens when Pakistan descends into chaos? What happens with their nuclear weapons?

 

These are the negative externalities that we need to be concerned about.

 

Great point. There will also be some positive externalities. This war may give politicians the cover the need to get rational/pragmatic on the policy front:

• NATO countries need to start taking defence seriously.
• This might break the fossil fuel hysteria fever in countries like Canada. Maybe we get another pipeline approved.  

[Castanza]

55 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

The issue with continued harping on this point is not just that he lied (that's just a given with Trump) but that it is exactly the same rationale being used to justify the current war.  If the President lies thru his teeth about the success last time, what exactly is the goal this time, what are we doing differently since last time didn't work and how will people know if it's actually been achieved.  

 

I agree there's a need to know info level in war, especially at the detailed operational level, but not when it comes to the entire objective of the war, what the goals are and actually telling the truth about what's being achieved. We are spending $bns we can't afford, costing lives, disrupting global trade and raising prices and we can't even trust the President to tell us why and how it's going. 

 

I'm not disagreeing with you on any of this. I'm simply saying who tf cares what Trump said last year about the destruction of nuclear material. Even if we knew 100% for certain what happened in the past with that situation (truth vs lie vs new info), it wouldn't change anyone's perspective on Trumps credibility moving forward for any and all future decisions. 

 

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

we can't even trust the President to tell us why and how it's going. 

 

That started long before Trump....The war is unconstitutional from the get go so the lack of trust runs much deeper than POTUS imo. The difference between Trump and many of the past presidents is that Trump is a terrible liar....

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, cwericb said:

The problem I see is that Trump believes that he and his minions are the smartest people on earth and that the rest of the world are just not all that bright. One only has to look at how he treats other world leaders to get a grasp of his attitudes.

 

Hitler had the same problem, and was also the commander of a similar military machine (for its time); sadly, it isn't unique. It didn't go well for Germany, and the military machine at the time was repeatedly unsuccessful in his removal. 

 

Given how practised the CIA and Mossad has been at this for decades, most would expect a different outcome. Have to think that if a Trump or Netanyahu ends up with another Vietnam, there will be state funerals; while the new leaderships negotiate an exit. 

 

https://www.history.com/articles/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler

 

C'est la vie.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

Edited March 30 by SharperDingaan

[Gregmal]

30 minutes ago, Viking said:

Much higher prices

How much of this is factored in by the fact that energy prices are....already up substantially? Is there an end to the infinity loop idea of "escalation = higher prices" when translated into the real world supply/demand...or do we have pump and dump dynamics in here already where a certain amount of hype is in the current prices? Or does energy simply +10% every times theres a new tweet or bomb dropped? 

Edited March 30 by Gregmal

[Red Lion]

9 hours ago, Parsad said:

The one area this time that may be exposed is the private lending/private credit market.  It's been extremely lax in oversight.

 

I know that this is the consensus view, and I'm not saying that there shouldn't be any oversight in private credit, but private credit usually sits in one of two places: 

 

1) Insurance company (particularly life insurance companies) balance sheets. 

2) LP funds. 

 

I think the Insurance companies could conceivably be a systematic risk, but much less likely than banks with demand deposits. Also, this is the one area that does have a fair amount of oversight. From what I can tell the insurance companies are for the most part holding the investment grade / investment grade equivalent private credit on their balance sheets. 

 

All the "sky is falling" articles are focused on the leveraged lending side of the market, and as far as I know the vast majority of these assets are sitting in LP funds or BDCs. Neither one of these poise systematic risk. 

 

Maybe these funds go south, investors lose money, and have a reduced appetite for investing in private credit going forward. But I have a very hard time seeing private credit starting a financial crisis. 

[Gregmal]

49 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

So what happens when Pakistan descends into chaos? What happens with their nuclear weapons?

 

These are the negative externalities that we need to be concerned about.

Do you believe that the Gulf State Thugs(common refrain from western folks) are just going to endlessly sit idle and let Iran cost them billions a day, forever, by keeping things closed?