Political Posts

[Parsad]

Rubio says progress made in negotiations with Iran through intermediaries.  Cheers!
 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/26/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump

[Viking]

21 hours ago, Viking said:

Iran doesn’t need to ‘fight back.’
 

IMHO, what matters in this war today is very simple: the Straight of Hormuz. Iran appears to be in ‘control’ of the straight. By control, they appear to be the party controlling what gets in and out. 
 

The question everyone wants answered: “When will traffic in the Straight of Hormuz return to normal?” 

 

I don’t think anyone is questioning the awesome power of the US military. Or how much it can bomb Iran. That is pretty obvious. The issue is - despite this awesome power - the straight remains effectively closed. Yes, it is a contradiction. 

In a war it is important to separate signal from noise. 
 

The central question of this war is “Is oil/LNG/refined products/fertilizers freely flowing through the Straight of Hormuz?” That is signal. 
 

Everything else is noise. 
 

Every day they stay in control of the straight improves Iran’s position. When physical shortages show up in another 2 or 3 weeks - the global economy is going to going to have its come to Jesus moment. Iran knows this. The US also knows this. 
 

The US has unwittingly made Iran more economically powerful than it has ever been before. It controls the straight. And with sanctions lifted, the gold is now rolling in. Yes, Trump is a genius. 
 

And look at Russia… sanctions lifted and oil prices going higher - gold is filling up their coffers. And guess who is helping Iran militarily? Russia. The US is lining the pockets of the country that is helping the IRGC take out Americans. Diabolical. 
 

This whole operation is getting ugly. And it looks like it is about to get worse. 

Edited March 26 by Viking

[Hoodlum]

3 minutes ago, Viking said:

And look at Russia… sanctions lifted and oil prices going higher - gold is filling up their coffers. And guess who is helping Iran militarily? Russia. The US is lining the pockets of the country that is helping the IRGC take out Americans. Diabolical. 

 

This is the funniest part of this whole conflict.   I am surprised this doesn't get played up more than it does.  

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, Viking said:

In a war it is important to separate signal from noise. 
 

The central question of this war is “Is oil/LNG/refined products/fertilizers freely flowing through the Straight of Hormuz?” That is signal. 
 

Everything else is noise. 
 

Every day they stay in control of the straight improves Iran’s position. When physical shortages show up in another 2 or 3 weeks - the global economy is going to going to have its come to Jesus moment. Iran knows this. The US also knows this. 
 

The US has unwittingly made Iran more economically powerful than it has ever been before. It controls the straight. And with sanctions lifted, the gold is now rolling in. Yes, Trump is a genius. 
 

And look at Russia… sanctions lifted and oil prices going higher - gold is filling up their coffers. And guess who is helping Iran militarily? Russia. The US is lining the pockets of the country that is helping the IRGC take out Americans. Diabolical. 
 

This whole operation is getting ugly. And it looks like it is about to get worse. 

 

Oh my gosh. Another hair on fire moment.

 

"We're all going to die!"

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Hoodlum said:

 

This is the funniest part of this whole conflict.   I am surprised this doesn't get played up more than it does.  

 

Yeah and the Saudi's are lining their pockets even faster. Bring on that $100 oil!  We can pump it as fast as you like for $10/barrel!

[Viking]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Oh my gosh. Another hair on fire moment.

 

"We're all going to die!"

@cubsfan, can you please share your thoughts on the Straight of Hormuz? 

1. Is it important?
2. Who controls it today?
3. When will it open to free flowing traffic? 

My view is if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for another month the global economy will have its ‘hair on fire’ moment. What do you think? 

[Gregmal]

Can we define, in real terms that we can assess in future references what 

 

9 minutes ago, Viking said:

if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for another month the global economy will have its ‘hair on fire’ moment.

And

 

22 minutes ago, Viking said:

When physical shortages show up in another 2 or 3 weeks - the global economy is going to going to have its come to Jesus moment. Iran knows this. The US also knows this. 

means???

 

If for a few months we have some higher prices, ones that still pale in relative terms compared to say 2021 or 2022(periods we also seemed to have survived)….whats the implication? 
 

Because “come to Jesus” and “hair on fire” sound like hysteria. Sound like “noise”. 
 

Is the dreaded end all be all a 15-20% pullback? It’s like we re saying things without actually saying anything useful and then chalking it up as “nobody knows” which is like the least useful thing in the world when discusses investment and framework. 

Edited March 26 by Gregmal

[SharperDingaan]

Thing is, after everything is blown up and the opposition leadership is gone, one can't just get back on the boat and/or fly home. One needs presence on the ground to fill the power vacuum left behind, to cut deals with the next set of warlords, leave ships behind to keep the SOH open. All those targets, still high crude prices, and a constant dribble of body bags back home. Vietnam 2.0 ... but without the draft, and fewer protests. WTI at USD 75/bbl plus for some time, with periodic spikes.

 

Without a regional 'deal' that all can live with, this doesn't end well. Spikes before then, but one year out .... WTI at USD 65-70/bbl plus for a long time ... inclusive of some kind of transit fee for a global maritime policeman over major shipping routes.

 

SD

 

 

Edited March 26 by SharperDingaan

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, Viking said:

@cubsfan, can you please share your thoughts on the Straight of Hormuz? 

1. Is it important?
2. Who controls it today?
3. When will it open to free flowing traffic? 

My view is if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for another month the global economy will have its ‘hair on fire’ moment. What do you think? 

 

SOH - it's vitally important.

 

Unlike you - I do not micromanage the military hour by hour. The United States will control the SOH whenever they like.  You seem to forget - we are in a 5 day "negotiation period" where both sides, supposedly, are attempting to work something out.

 

The USA controls Kharg Island right now. 

 

The SOH will be next.  But go ahead and make your silly hour-by-hour predictions.

 

My best, and pointless guess - we will control it in 30 days or less.  In the meantime, Iran does Israel and the USA a favor by allowing us to kill military leaders, weapons production facilities and secret police during the "negotiations". 

 

The world will not collapse.

[Viking]

24 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Can we define, in real terms that we can assess in future references what 

 

And

 

means???

 

If for a few months we have some higher prices, ones that still pale in relative terms compared to say 2021 or 2022(periods we also seemed to have survived)….whats the implication? 
 

Because “come to Jesus” and “hair on fire” sound like hysteria. Sound like “noise”. 
 

Is the dreaded end all be all a 15-20% pullback? It’s like we re saying things without actually saying anything useful and then chalking it up as “nobody knows” which is like the least useful thing in the world when discusses investment and framework. 

@Gregmal, you ask a great question. 
 

My view is investors are (generally) much better off simply ignoring macro. @dealraker is the master of this approach. 
 

Having said that, I also think there are times when it makes sense to pay attention to macro. Of course, because this is something that I do doesn’t mean this is something that others should do. That is why I started a separate thread on this topic. People can read my thinking there - so I won’t repeat it here. 
 

My ‘hair on fire’ comment was in response to @cubsfan hyperbole. 
 

My view is if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for another month it will likely tip the global economy into recession. At the same time it will likely spike inflation - which will spike interest rates. 

 

If the straight remains closed for longer the impact on the global economy will be worse. The fact that there have been no historical parallels matters - we are in uncharted waters.
 

I have said repeatedly, my goal is capital preservation. Not return. Stock markets are a couple of percent from all time highs. I don’t like the risk reward set-up. So my solution is to shift a chunk of my portfolio to cash. And then closely monitor the situation (hence my frequent posting on the topic). 
 

Part of my problem is I also love political science/economics/business/investing. Like a moth attracted to a flame, I am attracted to macro… Over the years it has served me very well (yes, in this regard I know I am a different duck).

Edited March 26 by Viking

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Viking said:

@Gregmal, you ask a great question. 
 

My view is investors are (generally) much better off simply ignoring macro. @dealraker is the master of this approach. 
 

Having said that, I also think there are times when it makes sense to pay attention to macro. Of course, because this is something that I do doesn’t mean this is something that others should do. That is why I started a separate thread on this topic. People can read my thinking there - so I won’t repeat it here. 
 

My ‘hair on fire’ comment was in response to @cubsfan hyperbole. 
 

My view is if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for another month it will likely tip the global economy into recession. At the same time it will likely spike inflation - which will spike interest rates. 

 

If the straight remains closed for longer the impact on the global economy will be worse. 
 

I have said repeatedly, my goal is capital preservation. Not return. Stock markets are a couple of percent from all time highs. I don’t like the risk reward set-up. So my solution is to shift a chunk of my portfolio to cash. And then closely monitor the situation (hence my frequent posting on the topic). 
 

Part of my problem is I also love political science/economics/business/investing. Like a moth attracted to a flame, I am attracted to macro… 

 

Yeah, your real goal is the constant "Donald Trump is a disaster waiting to happen", blah, blah, blah.

 

Meanwhile, you have China Carney and the Canadian economy to fix, which is a frickin' disaster.

 

But I do enjoy your smokescreen.

 

Keep the Trump meltdown stuff coming.

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, Viking said:

@Gregmal, you ask a great question. 
 

My view is investors are (generally) much better off simply ignoring macro. @dealraker is the master of this approach. 
 

Having said that, I also think there are times when it makes sense to pay attention to macro. Of course, because this is something that I do doesn’t mean this is something that others should do. That is why I started a separate thread on this topic. People can read my thinking there - so I won’t repeat it here. 
 

My ‘hair on fire’ comment was in response to @cubsfan hyperbole. 
 

My view is if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for another month it will likely tip the global economy into recession. At the same time it will likely spike inflation - which will spike interest rates. 

 

If the straight remains closed for longer the impact on the global economy will be worse. 
 

I have said repeatedly, my goal is capital preservation. Not return. Stock markets are a couple of percent from all time highs. I don’t like the risk reward set-up. So my solution is to shift a chunk of my portfolio to cash. And then closely monitor the situation (hence my frequent posting on the topic). 
 

Part of my problem is I also love political science/economics/business/investing. Like a moth attracted to a flame, I am attracted to macro… 

 

 

Ok thanks.

 

This is much clearer and easier an input into the sausage machine that ponders all these various scenarios. The hair on fire doesnt as easily translate to an economic outcome, for me at least. 

 

Generally, I try to build out the model with further "and then?" scenarios. 

 

Im again finding this a reason to own bonds. Higher energy prices are themselves restrictive. The Fed isnt hiking. Seems a good skew. In 2021 and 2 the economy was on fire, it was easy to hike. The situation is not at all similar today, on that front at least.

Edited March 26 by Gregmal

[cubsfan]

Now this is funny

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

When Jews join Muslims to fight Muslims.

The World changes for the better.

Thank you Donald Trump.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Whats crazy is when you really put on an analytical cap, we're ditching a bunch of lame, limp wristed wokies whom think everything comes down to SWOT analysis meetings and regulations, and replacing them with allies whom understand economics, capitalism, and reciprocation. 

 

Iran and a few of their friends have more or less been the thorn in the side of the Gulf Dream of becoming a financial powerhouse and global destination for talent/luxury experiences. Whats crazy is when you really think things thru..whom does keeping the Strait closed hurt the most...the US? What cuz some might pay an extra $20 a week in gas for a few months? Or the billions in oil profits that these same Gulf regions are now forced to eat? In a way, the whole situation has given the Gulf consortium an excuse to takeout Iran. The longer this goes on, the more incentive they have. And guess what, it's pretty freakin evident if you listen to what theyre saying. 

Edited March 26 by Gregmal

[dealraker]

I'm just trying to predict Trump's next adventure.  It will be equally disruptive, actually likely more disruptive.

 

(And just below the scenes if you look you'll notice he and his family will continue getting filthy rich!)

 

Edited March 26 by dealraker

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I'm just trying to predict Trump's next adventure.  It will be equally disruptive, actually likely more disruptive.

 

(And just below the scenes if you look you notice he and his family will continue getting filthy rich!)

 

 

Personally, I hope he pivots back to the economy, while he gets rich!

[cubsfan]

Desperation time in Iran - using child soldiers once again..manning checkpoints... maybe like the Iran/Iraq war - suicide missions?

 

Recruiting children 12 and above.

 

Desperate measures for desperate times

 

 

 

Edited March 26 by cubsfan

[changegonnacome]

25 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Trump: "I need...I am desperate actually... for $200 billion to continue this war or the US has lost."

 

Yeah the 'tell' here for those watching is that Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee (Kushner & Witkoff) are back at the kids negotiating table where they always belonged.....Vance and more importantly Rubio & the actual REAL pros at State Department (' the deep state') who actually have expertise in negotiating bilateral international agreements have been inserted into the process to figure out a jumble of words that gives everyone the political 'win' they need here to go home. Its in everyone's interest now (probably with the exception of Israel) to sign a piece of paper and move on.

 

[John Hjorth]

21 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Just trying to help Cubs escape his echo chamber.

 

The FT Digital Edition is only $12 a month. It's the online version of the printed paper. I strongly recommend it.

 

21 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

The normal print editions for any of the national papers are too expensive. Buffett is likely the only one that can afford them all anymore.

 

21 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Off topic:

 

Thank you, Blake [ @Blake Hampton ]!

 

Off topic, again :

 

Blake [ @Blake Hampton ], based on your information, I called Financial Times at +800 07056477, because I saw the Digital subscription for Danes at DKK 349 per month, I got a nice lady directing me somewhere else, on the FT webpage, and suddenly the price was DKK 85 per month! So, I subscribed immedially!

 

Thank you, Blake [ @Blake Hampton ] !  - I've really been missing this subscription for years!

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

My view is investors are (generally) much better off simply ignoring macro.

 

There is nothing wrong with macro, as long as it is within context. If you make your money trading volatility, then day-to-day macro shocks can matter - but it's not most people. If you make your money investing over multi-year time horizons, it is much less relevant; what matters is the more medium term developing patterns, and their likely directional impact.

 

Not to say that one can't do both, and at the same time  ... but it's entirely different mindsets.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Maverick47]

I would like to think that the humans involved in the war management and the political negotiations are all rational actors, but given the actors involved, I suspect that emotions and fears may play a larger part in what happens than I’d otherwise hope to see.

 

Iran seems to have found some leverage over the oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.  They have already begun charging tolls of a few million dollars paid in yuan for tankers to transit.  Buffett has said that his preferred business would be to own a toll road.  The Iranians may have found that they own a lucrative toll road which could be a source of financial stability for them in the future if they are allowed to keep control of the Strait.

 

I also can’t help but wonder whether there might not be rational actors on either or all sides who might take advantage of volatility in the markets to make leveraged bets on the future of oil and other asset prices, interest rates etc. which might pay off in the event of some sort of a settlement of the conflict.  Just idle speculation, but not unreasonable given the large bets made 15 minutes before Trump released a statement announcing talks were under way earlier this week.  If folks on both sides were to make large bets that would pay of handsomely in the event of a settlement, an event over which they could exert influence, perhaps that could provide some sort of financial incentive to settle things in an other than zero sum game manner.

[Maverick47]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Whats crazy is when you really put on an analytical cap, we're ditching a bunch of lame, limp wristed wokies whom think everything comes down to SWOT analysis meetings and regulations, and replacing them with allies whom understand economics, capitalism, and reciprocation. 

 

Iran and a few of their friends have more or less been the thorn in the side of the Gulf Dream of becoming a financial powerhouse and global destination for talent/luxury experiences. Whats crazy is when you really think things thru..whom does keeping the Strait closed hurt the most...the US? What cuz some might pay an extra $20 a week in gas for a few months? Or the billions in oil profits that these same Gulf regions are now forced to eat? In a way, the whole situation has given the Gulf consortium an excuse to takeout Iran. The longer this goes on, the more incentive they have. And guess what, it's pretty freakin evident if you listen to what theyre saying. 

Interesting @Gregmal.  Human psychology tells us that folks hate losing something much more than they like gaining the same thing.  The wealthy Gulf nations are understanding just how much they have to lose with Iran controlling the Strait and holding a gun to their heads via threats to destroy their oil and gas infrastructure.

[ourkid8]

5 hours ago, Viking said:

In a war it is important to separate signal from noise. 
 

The central question of this war is “Is oil/LNG/refined products/fertilizers freely flowing through the Straight of Hormuz?” That is signal. 
 

Everything else is noise. 
 

Every day they stay in control of the straight improves Iran’s position. When physical shortages show up in another 2 or 3 weeks - the global economy is going to going to have its come to Jesus moment. Iran knows this. The US also knows this. 
 

The US has unwittingly made Iran more economically powerful than it has ever been before. It controls the straight. And with sanctions lifted, the gold is now rolling in. Yes, Trump is a genius. 
 

And look at Russia… sanctions lifted and oil prices going higher - gold is filling up their coffers. And guess who is helping Iran militarily? Russia. The US is lining the pockets of the country that is helping the IRGC take out Americans. Diabolical. 
 

This whole operation is getting ugly. And it looks like it is about to get worse. 

 

Finally, someone else who sees the bigger picture beyond the usual US/Israeli narrative.

 

I know you like referring to the new Fairfax. The new Iran is emerging. New toll revenue, sanctions soon to be reduced/lifted which would mean significantly improved economy going forward etc… 

 

Iran is quietly and methodically executing its long-term playbook. While everyone fixates on the noise — we hit x target,  flashy strikes, and daily headlines — the real moves are happening beneath the surface.

 

Update: 

 

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz feels like when the US let Lehman Brothers collapse. At first, markets applauded the move—then everything unraveled.

 

 

 

Edited March 27 by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Desperation time in Iran - using child soldiers once again..manning checkpoints... maybe like the Iran/Iraq war - suicide missions?

 

Recruiting children 12 and above.

 

Desperate measures for desperate times

 

 

 

 

This ties back to my previous comment — you simply don’t understand the country, its people, or its religion.

 

This is an existential war of survival. Ordinary Iranians are volunteering to defend their homeland and their faith.

 

Do you really believe that if they stopped getting paid — by Trump taking Kharg Island, for example — they would suddenly quit fighting and start protesting instead?