Political Posts

[Blake Hampton]

"The ports are an illustration of the effects of globalization that Mr. Trump criticizes. As factories moved abroad over decades, particularly to China, the ports formed one end of a busy ocean superhighway.

 

Most of that traffic flows in one direction. For every four containers that arrive stuffed with foreign cars, textiles and toys, only one is sent out filled with corn, soybeans and other American exports. The other three containers often return empty — evidence of the trade deficit that the president rails against."

NYT: This Is Ground Zero in Trump’s Trade War

[Spekulatius]

So what’s the bet for the SPY opening on Monday? Down 1-2%? Lots of dip buyers nowadays.

[Grenville]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Gaza would be thriving right now had they followed Lee Quan Yew rather than Hamas.  

Oh I wasn’t aware that all of Gaza followed Hamas? 
 

Is that why they all deserve to be obliterated? 

[Blake Hampton]

3 minutes ago, Grenville said:

Oh I wasn’t aware that all of Gaza followed Hamas? 
 

Is that why they all deserve to be obliterated? 

Isn’t J. Powell part of Hamas?

[sleepydragon]

It seems from various pictures it’s not sure how much damages were done to the site. Maybe have to go back and drop more?

[Blake Hampton]

4 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

It seems from various pictures it’s not sure how much damages were done to the site. Maybe have to go back and drop more?

 

“Iranian state media said only minor damage to entrance tunnels was done, and the country’s Atomic Energy Organization said it would continue work on its nuclear program.”

 

I don’t know what they get out of this if it isn’t true. But they do like to bark a lot.

[Blake Hampton]

Just from reading, I get the sense that a lot of Iranians are of the same mind of the WW2 Japanese — that they’re very willing to die for the sake of their country.

[Blake Hampton]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Just from reading, I get the sense that a lot of Iranians are of the same mind of the WW2 Japanese — that they’re very willing to die for the sake of their country.

Maybe I’m wrong though.

[changegonnacome]

6 hours ago, Luke said:

Yeah...gotta say that i think this was the right judgement call from trump am i wrong here? 

 

On the discrete question of whether stopping Iran getting the bomb or at least delaying it for many years. Yes it was the right call......but at what cost? We are yet to understand the true cost - it will only be revealed in the coming weeks/months  this is the story of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

[changegonnacome]

Lets not forget where we were before Trump ripped up the JCPOA in 2018 when we think about how we got here and as I say above when we truly find out the true cost of this intervention.

 

Is this another example of Trump the arsonist and fireman - creating a problem and heroically fixing it later.

 

Edited June 22, 2025 by changegonnacome

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

On the discrete question of whether stopping Iran getting the bomb or at least delaying it for many years. Yes it was the right call......but at what cost? We are yet to understand the true cost - it will only be revealed in the coming weeks/months  this is the story of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

 

It was a choice between plague and cholera. Iran is a rogue state and can't be trusted at all. As the only country with the means to carry out this action, it was also for USA to make the call.

 

I feel confident the majority of European countries more or less silently accept and recognize this was the right thing to do.

 

With regard to the price to pay, I think it must be clear for the Iranian priesthood that if these questionable, mean, old men as much as tries to curl a hair on a US soldier in the region, Iran will be hit by a huge midnight hammer.

Edited June 22, 2025 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

Congratulations to the greatest US President of our times.

 

He just totally undid the Obama/Biden legacy of coddling terrorists.

[Paarslaars]

Still going to hurt in the morning when I check my portfolio though, was just hitting ATHs...

 

But I'll take a hit for the good of the world, market will recover by end of July anyway.

Edited June 22, 2025 by Paarslaars

[SharperDingaan]

The reality is that the US really didn't have any choice re the Iranian nuclear facilities; even if peace broke out tomorrow, the facilities had to go, as under the current regime nuclear weaponry is just too close a possibility. The US either had to bomb it using their military, or support a ground force incursion. Bombing was far the better choice.

 

Regime change is inevitable, it's just a matter of how quickly. Better if the Ayatollah comes to the table, but it could be done via assassination as well. To remove the regime is also to remove Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Huthi. Peace returns to the gulf, and the 20%+ war premium on oil comes off. 

 

Shite happens, oil spikes higher, and the war premium just gets bigger.

 

SD

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

He just totally undid the Obama/Biden legacy of coddling terrorists Iran having zero centrifuges.

 

 

 

Fixed it for you above.......

 

maybe your right as I say and this puts a line underneath the nuclear threat. Albeit between Jan 2016 and May 2018 with no centrifuges in Iran we already had that.

 

There's an alternative story I can tell though - where Iran now doubles down on direct, no ifs, buts or maybes pursuit of a bomb perhaps aided by the axis of Russia/China or other muslim countries like Pakistan.....if/when that occurs the only military option if Trump sticks to the 'no Iranian nuclear' capability principle -is regime change and American troops on the ground (not convinced yet until I see full reports of total Fordo annihilation that this is not already where we are headed).

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

On the discrete question of whether stopping Iran getting the bomb or at least delaying it for many years. Yes it was the right call......but at what cost? We are yet to understand the true cost - it will only be revealed in the coming weeks/months  this is the story of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

I would argue it will take years to find out. We have no idea if the bombs really destroyed the facility, if the Iranians  were able to collect and salvage enough enriched Uranium and move it elsewhere , or what sort of asymmetrical warfare  they can come up with over the next month or years, whether they get help from Russia , China or North Korea.

Or may be it is all over because the regime collapses. The range of outcomes is very broad and not within our control.

Edited June 22, 2025 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The range of outcomes is very broad

 

100% and those taking a victory lap today and calling this a great success and obvious move.....are like a chess player declaring 'checkmate' after moving king pawn two squares up in their opening move.....multiple ways things can develop, good, bad and disastrous from here....including lest anyone accuse me of cassandra thinking...is a blue sky outcome of regime collapse in Iran and new golden age in the Middle East.

[73 Reds]

27 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The reality is that the US really didn't have any choice re the Iranian nuclear facilities; even if peace broke out tomorrow, the facilities had to go, as under the current regime nuclear weaponry is just too close a possibility. The US either had to bomb it using their military, or support a ground force incursion. Bombing was far the better choice.

 

Regime change is inevitable, it's just a matter of how quickly. Better if the Ayatollah comes to the table, but it could be done via assassination as well. To remove the regime is also to remove Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Huthi. Peace returns to the gulf, and the 20%+ war premium on oil comes off. 

 

Shite happens, oil spikes higher, and the war premium just gets bigger.

 

SD

 

 

 

Exactly right.  The US and Israel did what needed go be done.  All the bellyaching is complete nonsense.  The innocents in the region will now at least have a chance, something they don't have under control of Mullahs and Iranian proxies.  The moderate Arab world is largely silent reflecting an implied consent.  Same with Europe.  The primary complainants are Trump haters who can't come up with an alternative good idea on this issue or any other issue of importance so who really cares what they think anyway?

Edited June 22, 2025 by 73 Reds

[Luke]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

It was a choice between plague and cholera. Iran is a rogue state and can't be trusted at all. As the only country with the means to carry out this action, it was also for USA to make the call.

 

I feel confident the majority of European countries more or less silently accept and recognize this was the right thing to do.

 

With regard to the price to pay, I think it must be clear for the Iranian priesthood that if these questionable, mean, old men as much as tries to curl a hair on a US soldier in the region, Iran will be hit by a huge midnight hammer.

Yeah well put.

35 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

100% and those taking a victory lap today and calling this a great success and obvious move.....are like a chess player declaring 'checkmate' after moving king pawn two squares up in their opening move.....multiple ways things can develop, good, bad and disastrous from here....including lest anyone accuse me of cassandra thinking...is a blue sky outcome of regime collapse in Iran and new golden age in the Middle East.

I think this was the equivalent of forking the queen and a rook with the queen escaping and the west taking the rook. With israel far outmatching iran in standard 1 v 1 military, i think they dont have many options right now. 

31 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Exactly right.  The US and Israel did what needed go be done.  All the bellyaching is complete nonsense.  The innocents in the region will now at least have a chance, something they don't have under control of Mullahs and Iranian proxies.  The moderate Arab world is largely silent reflecting an implied consent.  Same with Europe.  The primary complainants are Trump haters who can't come up with an alternative good idea on this issue or any other issue of importance so who really cares what they think anyway?

Agreed. 

 

 

I think the market wont even care, Iran is now irrelevant and i am betting on capitulation soon or a short fight until the regime collapses.

[Marco Van Basten]

3 hours ago, Grenville said:

Oh I wasn’t aware that all of Gaza followed Hamas? 
 

Is that why they all deserve to be obliterated? 

Clearly reading comprehension is not your strong suit nor is knowledge of history.  I did not say that all of Gaza followed f Hamas, however Hamas won 70%+ of the popular vote.  Secondly, I never stated that all Gazans deserve to be obliterated.  I said that they would not be in the situation that they are in now had they followed Lee Quan Yew rather than Hamas.  If you still have difficulty understanding, I will give you an analogy: if somebody routinely crosses the street on a red light, they drastically increase their chances of being fatally struck by a car, however I would not say that they deserve to be struck by a car.  Similarly, smoking drastically increases your chances of lung cancer, so I would say that the consequences of smoking are much higher chances of having lung cancer, that however does not mean that I think that all or any smokers deserve lung cancer.  

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Clearly reading comprehension is not your strong suit nor is knowledge of history.  I did not say that all of Gaza followed f Hamas, however Hamas won 70%+ of the popular vote.  Secondly, I never stated that all Gazans deserve to be obliterated.  I said that they would not be in the situation that they are in now had they followed Lee Quan Yew rather than Hamas.  If you still have difficulty understanding, I will give you an analogy: if somebody routinely crosses the street on a red light, they drastically increase their chances of being fatally struck by a car, however I would not say that they deserve to be struck by a car.  Similarly, smoking drastically increases your chances of lung cancer, so I would say that the consequences of smoking are much higher chances of having lung cancer, that however does not mean that I think that all or any smokers deserve lung cancer.  

Of course, Hamas strong-arms adults and brainwashes their children.  Gazans don't "follow" Hamas; they had no other choice and anyone who believes that elections were legitimate has no grasp of history as you suggest.  These aren't regions where equity, fairness and quality of life means a damn thing to those who rule.  If apologists could ever get that through their thick heads maybe they could offer something more than meaningless protests.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

The US and Israel did what needed go be done.

 

How can you be so sure its been "done" because Donald said it was?

 

It's simply unknowable right now and I'll note Pete Hegseth gave a much more measured and cautious assessment of what the bombing achieved this morning at his press conference versus Trumps "obliterated" rhetoric last night.

 

I'll also just remind folks that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% uranium stockpiled....it was undoubtedly moved to a location away from the nuclear sites....Iran is now a regime in full on existential panic mode...maybe they wave the white flag and seek forgiveness as means to survive but maybe they choose a different more aggressive path - an accelerated no holes barred race towards 90% enrichment & ignition.

 

Even if the US destroyed 95% of Iran's 15,000 centrifuges last night (a hugely successful outcome by any military standard) I can assure you that is not enough centrifugal capacity destruction to stop 60% uranium going to 90% in a sufficient quantities for a bomb in a relatively short period of time.

 

The other piece of 4D chess one should begin to consider now is what is Bibi's next move as the Prime Minister of Israel?....its almost as important as what Ayatollah Khamenei does under the catergory of what the USA's exposure is here now.

 

If I was Bibi, with the bit between my teeth and the United States pot committed in actions and principle to a no nuclear Iran.....I would now use all my perasauve powers & not a little threat inflation to make the following case >

 

 - that while the B-2 bombing last night was successful at degrading Iran's nuclear capability that it still remains in place (as per my point above - 60% enriched uranium stockpile plus a few hundred undamaged centrifuges remaining equals a viable nuclear threat)

 

- in fact I would argue, as I just have, that the regime are now more determined than ever to get a bomb and so in fact the nuclear threat instead of being diminished by the B-2 bombings last night has actually, in reality,  greatly increased.

 

- with this increased threat I would indicate that the only way to ensure a no nuclear Iran would be regime change and the installing of an Israeli/US backed regime committed to a non-nuclear Iran

 

- I would also point out that the record of regime change being achieved by aerial bombardment alone is effectively zero across recorded history

 

- Bibi having said all of the above, all quite logical....would then say the obvious.....to remove the nuclear threat from Iran forever and for certain......."we Israel, the US & a coalition of the willing, need to commit ground forces to invade Iran and topple the regime". 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Santayana]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Bibi having said all of the above, all quite logical....would then say the obvious.....to remove the nuclear threat from Iran forever and for certain......."we Israel, the US & a coalition of the willing, need to commit ground forces to invade Iran and topple the regime". 

 

With the size and terrain of Iran, a ground invasion would make Afghanistan look like a cakewalk.

[skanjete]

Maybe interesting to hear a different voice : 

Also the interviews with prof. Mearsheimer are illuminating....

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

Great to see how dumb the "taco" talkers look.....Iran certainly doesn't think so