Political Posts

[Castanza]

8 hours ago, LC said:

 

Why not pick up cheap Chinese retailers (PDD)? Heads you get a huge rally, tails you're probably already close to the bottom for PDD, valuation wise?

Looking to avoid another Sberbank situation 

[Luke]

17 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

I get your point, I am simply making the point that a lot of us who don't live there are not rooting against you. Everyone here wants the US to do well because you are (were) the stabaliser in the world. If you guys created a crisis, the world will feel it...

 

Also VIX up 40% again today, did he tweet something again?

Trump is a threat to any economy except the US economy so of course, if you value your own economy and businesses you should root against the Trump administration.

13 hours ago, Sweet said:

I’m not talking about those rooting against the US.  I am referring to those criticising Trump and his policies, many aren’t rooting against America, they are rooting for America.

Why would you "root" for america if you are not an american, especially with POTUS trump who is a grifter that tries to coerce and blackmail the entire world to take even more wealth for themselves. If you look at the services and foreign subsidiaries of US international companies the entire world is at a gigantic trade deficit with the US but even then americans try to take more and behave like the poor guy, it is insane.

1 hour ago, mattee2264 said:

Yeah it amounts to a trade embargo. China will struggle to find buyers for their crap goods. USA will struggle to find equally cheap crap goods from other countries. Trade substitution takes time. Import substitution is mostly a fantasy. Eliminating the trade deficit with China is an impossibility. 

 

Having said that since the 1st trade war there has been a trend towards doing less trade with China and this trend will probably accelerate. We will probably land with tariffs that discourage trade with China while moderating the short term pain to the extent import substitution isn't possible or feasible. Still a negative though and doesn't reflect economic sense but rather animosity between the nations and national security concerns. 

I can say that these "crap" goods are the same goods that are sold on amazon but with way less of a markup and they are perfectly fine goods.

 

Still, China is also a security risk for other countries, but right now, less than the US with Trump.

[Luke]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DILLLdgoPHv/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

 

Wise words from Singapore.

[Sweet]

10 minutes ago, Luke said:

Why would you "root" for america if you are not an american, especially with POTUS trump who is a grifter that tries to coerce and blackmail the entire world to take even more wealth for themselves. If you look at the services and foreign subsidiaries of US international companies the entire world is at a gigantic trade deficit with the US but even then americans try to take more and behave like the poor guy, it is insane.

 

Shared people and a shared set of values.  Relatives from a family split by an ocean.  Plus more than a smidge of gratitude for favours and help provided by Americans to us Europeans in years gone by.  Something you may not understand if you don't share these values, share a culture, or a people, or received such help.  Yes I don't like the person in the oval office right, but just because my kid throws a tantrum it doesn't mean I don't stop loving him.  You either get it or you don't.

 

Edited April 11, 2025 by Sweet

[Luke]

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Shared people and a shared set of values.  

Sorry but "shared people" means nothing and is not the basis for anything. I gladly spent my time with japanese, chinese, americans whatever. We owe each other nothing.

 

Shared values can be seen by a guy who tries to tax everyone on the basis of hot air and threats.

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Relatives from a family split by an ocean. 

Okay, thats why you deserve better treatment from me than random japanese person on the street? I dont think so.

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Plus more than a smidge of gratitude for favours and help provided by Americans to us Europeans in years gone by. 

Soviet Union bore the brunt of World War II in terms of soldiers engaged, casualties, and fighting the bulk of the German military.

 

About 70-80% of the German military fought on the Eastern Front against the Soviet Union.

 

The Soviet Union lost an estimated 26-27 million people (military and civilian).  8-11 million were military deaths — more than all other Allied forces combined.  Comparatively, the U.S. lost about 400,000 soldiers, and the U.K. around 380,000.

 

We owe the most gratitude to what constitutes most of Russia today.

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 Something you may not understand if you don't share these values, share a culture, or a people, or received such help

Who do you think is more likely to help me in cases of danger, an American or a Japanese person? I eat a lot of sushi, watch anime, i like nature, am i a relative of japanese now?

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 Yes I don't like the person in the oval office right, but just because my kid throws a tantrum it doesn't mean I don't stop loving him.  You either get it or you don't.

 

It is not about love, it is about protecting your country from hostile forces that try to harm your economy. Trump and the american state are such a hostile force now not only to the european union but to the entire world. Trump has no friends, he only sees deals and trying to get him the best one.

[Luke]

Pretty much the entire world saw Trump's true face last week. It's up to wise leaders now to protect us from economic threats from both the US, China, Middle East etc.

[Spooky]

https://on.ft.com/4lqV8Sl

 

Article by Michael Pettis in the FT

[Spooky]

One idea from the article that hasn't been discussed much: 

"The most effective way [to correct global economic imbalances] is likely to be by imposing controls on the US capital account that limit the ability of surplus countries to balance their surpluses by acquiring US assets."

 

 

[Sweet]

9 minutes ago, Luke said:

Sorry but "shared people" means nothing and is not the basis for anything. I gladly spent my time with japanese, chinese, americans whatever. We owe each other nothing.

 

Don't agree.  A shared people is not a matter of opinion.  It's literally genetic.

 

You have lots of immigrants in the UK here who actively support and want their native countries to do well.

 

Stop pretending such a concept does not exist.

 

12 minutes ago, Luke said:

Shared values can be seen by a guy who tries to tax everyone on the basis of hot air and threats.

 

Because I don't like one american I must dislike them all?

 

11 minutes ago, Luke said:

Soviet Union bore the brunt of World War II in terms of soldiers engaged, blah blah blah

 

Irrelevant anti-American bs.  The Soviets started WW2 on the Nazis side and participated in the invasion of Poland.  After the war they tried to gobble up as much of Europe as they could.  

 

14 minutes ago, Luke said:

Who do you think is more likely to help me in cases of danger, an American or a Japanese person? I eat a lot of sushi, watch anime, i like nature, am i a relative of japanese now?

 

America today literally budded off a Europe country.  The current presidents mother is Scottish.  Trump is eligible for British citizenship.  Are you serious with your anime and sushi comparision... really?

 

16 minutes ago, Luke said:

It is not about love, it is about protecting your country from hostile forces that try to harm your economy. Trump and the american state are such a hostile force now not only to the european union but to the entire world. Trump has no friends, he only sees deals and trying to get him the best one.

 

This is true.  Trump has been hostile.  He is damaging relationships with allies.  He is untrustworthy.  He is unreliable.  He seems to think American must win all the time and that winning comes at the expense of others.  He doesn't seem know who his friends are.... all these things yes.

 

And yet, I still love America.  Just not Trump.

 

PS - I don't love it anywhere near as much as I love my kids, that was an analogy.

[james22]

18 minutes ago, Luke said:

Sorry but "shared people" means nothing and is not the basis for anything.

 

This is what happens when you remove Western Civ from the curriculum.

 

Jaysis Christ.

[John Hjorth]

14 minutes ago, Luke said:

Pretty much the entire world saw Trump's true face last week. It's up to wise leaders now to protect us from economic threats from both the US, China, Middle East etc.

 

@Luke,

 

It's Friday, and weekend is approaching fast, and soon time to enter 'Onslow mode', so can't we just agree that Donald Trump added a lot of new acquaintances during that time span, but it was unfortunately at the expense of a similar number of friends! 

[Sweet]

6 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

This is what happens when you remove Western Civ from the curriculum.

 

Jaysis Christ.

 

 

He watches anime and eats sushi, so his connect to Japan is as strong as a Japanese person.

[Hektor]

8 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

Make that bitch cry on national TV.

Who? Bill A?? 

[mattee2264]

I don't think what Trump is doing is even good for America.

 

He doesn't understand Economics and when you have spent your entire career screwing over others it is not surprising that his instinct is telling him the rest of the world is screwing over USA. 

 

A shift away from free trade and acceleration of deglobalisation trends is not good for the global economy and it is not good for USA either. 

[james22]

4 hours ago, Milu said:

Article seems like a bit of a hit piece really.

 

It's the Rolling Stone, for chrissake.

[SharperDingaan]

14 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Understood, but there are folks rooting directly against the US and I wonder just what they stand for and support.

 

Pretty simple. Rationality, predictability, and good governance.

 

The US voted for the opposite, and power to them. But now it wears the consequences, there is no 'redo', and it is not how good neighbour's act with each other.  Enjoy your island; nobody has to visit it, trade with it, buy its debt, or invest in it. Hence, hardly surprising that the term 'Ugly American' is making a comeback ..  it is well earned.

 

SD

 

Edited April 11, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[73 Reds]

8 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Pretty simple. Rationality, predictability, and good governance.

 

The US voted for the opposite, and power to them. But now it wears the consequences, there is no 'redo', and it is not how good neighbour's act with each other.  Enjoy your island; nobody has to visit it, trade with it, buy its debt, or invest in it. Hence, hardly surprising that the term 'Ugly American' is making a comeback ..  it is well earned.

 

SD

 

Voters had two choices.  You confuse what they voted "for" vs. what they voted against.  

[james22]

10 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Rationality, predictability, and good governance.

 

How's that working out for you? LOL

[no_free_lunch]

Everyone likes to talk and thats your right but i see strong arguments againts tarriffs and you yourselves are now ignoring these arguments.  Meanwhile we all continue to invest in the US.  Proof is in the pudding, e.g. follow the money not the rhetoric.

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

I think i read somewhere they found it’s Japanese dumping treasuries (but now china knows this works and may use it)

Only 15% of treasuries see held abroad though. I do think it’s a possibility as the trade war makes other sanctions more likely.

[Spekulatius]

Some shuffling ahead of Project Greenland:

 

[Ghost]

tldr:  Japan, EU, Canada sold USA treasury's...that is some high level moves....if it is true. 

 

https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/carneys-checkmate-how-canadas-quiet

[LC]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

Looking to avoid another Sberbank situation 

 

I thought the premise of the trade is believing Trump will pause the tariff war with China? Unless you believe he would pause tariffs, then subsequently place sanctions on Chinese stocks? To me that seems unlikely even for Stumpy.

[rogermunibond]

@Spekulatius it's more like 29% when you only count the debt held by the public.  intergovernmental debt doesn't trade.

 

10 yr and 30 yr yields keep moving up.  which is likely Japanese insurance companies/asset managers.

 

1-5 yr yields are coming down as they should if we have a recession and the Fed cuts.

[Castanza]

10 minutes ago, LC said:

 

I thought the premise of the trade is believing Trump will pause the tariff war with China? Unless you believe he would pause tariffs, then subsequently place sanctions on Chinese stocks? To me that seems unlikely even for Stumpy.

It is, but if he doesn’t pause tariffs he could choose to cut off ADRs. I don’t have to worry either way with DHL or UPS.