Political Posts

[Mephistopheles]

 

we have the first house defector.

 

this will go slowly and then quickly 

Bullish 

 

[rkbabang]

49 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

The end game is, at worst, the election of a Democratic majority to the Senate and Congress after the massive crushing of American standards of living.

 

I was just saying something similar to this today.  It's an insane move.  I know he's generally unpredictable, but wow. I cringed when he said something about "beautiful tariffs" in his state of the union, but this goes so far beyond what I thought he would do.

[mattee2264]

The motive seems to be a gut-feeling that other countries have been ripping the USA off. So they are being punished in a childish tit-for-tat approach which is on brand for Trump. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-us-trade-tariff-math-is-crazy-wisdom-of-crowds-author/

 

The above article sets out the so called tariff math which is bizarre to say the least. 

 

He also seems to have this naïve belief that by taxing foreigners he can reduce taxes for Americans without worsening the government deficit which again fits in with the America first philosophy. 

 

The problem is that if Trump backs down and returns to the old status quo without extracting significant trade concessions then it will be obvious to everyone that he has lost the trade war and needlessly crashed the stock market and the economy in the process. 

 

And if it becomes obvious that Trump is under internal pressure to back down then countries have far less incentive to give Trump the unreasonable trade concessions he wants so what it probably means is that we are going to get a trade war and it will drag on. 

 

Markets are probably doing their usual temper tantrum and are trying to feel out the Trump (and/or Powell) put and expecting a rescue. 

 

I imagine there will be some occasional rallies as Trump encourages the idea that everything is negotiable and some countries will make early concessions.

 

But absent a major reversal or certainty that Trump has given up on using tariffs as an economic weapon the economic pain will build and could end up being greater and longer lasting than the initial market reaction has priced in. 

 

After all we've just erased a year of gains and a year ago everything seemed rosy with exciting new technologies, full employment, moderate inflation, and an expectation that the Fed would eventually cut interest rates as inflation eventually fell back towards target. 

 

[LC]

37 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

we have the first house defector.

 

this will go slowly and then quickly 

Bullish 

 

 

I would expect Stumpy Trumpy to veto this bill, if it ever makes it to his golf cart. So they will need a lot of congressional support to pass it. May be difficult with proto-neanderthals like MJT who cling to their plate-gold MAGA ticket.

 

 

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, mattee2264 said:

The motive seems to be a gut-feeling that other countries have been ripping the USA off. So they are being punished in a childish tit-for-tat approach which is on brand for Trump. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-us-trade-tariff-math-is-crazy-wisdom-of-crowds-author/

 

The above article sets out the so called tariff math which is bizarre to say the least. 

 

He also seems to have this naïve belief that by taxing foreigners he can reduce taxes for Americans without worsening the government deficit which again fits in with the America first philosophy. 

 

The problem is that if Trump backs down and returns to the old status quo without extracting significant trade concessions then it will be obvious to everyone that he has lost the trade war and needlessly crashed the stock market and the economy in the process. 

 

And if it becomes obvious that Trump is under internal pressure to back down then countries have far less incentive to give Trump the unreasonable trade concessions he wants so what it probably means is that we are going to get a trade war and it will drag on. 

 

Markets are probably doing their usual temper tantrum and are trying to feel out the Trump (and/or Powell) put and expecting a rescue. 

 

I imagine there will be some occasional rallies as Trump encourages the idea that everything is negotiable and some countries will make early concessions.

 

But absent a major reversal or certainty that Trump has given up on using tariffs as an economic weapon the economic pain will build and could end up being greater and longer lasting than the initial market reaction has priced in. 

 

After all we've just erased a year of gains and a year ago everything seemed rosy with exciting new technologies, full employment, moderate inflation, and an expectation that the Fed would eventually cut interest rates as inflation eventually fell back towards target. 

 

This seems like a paradise for stock pickers. Same way money flowed around in pockets of the market from April 2020-early 2022.
 

Trumps unpredictability has always been predictable. 

[cubsfan]

How little we care about others.

Edited April 5, 2025 by cubsfan

[aws]

I hear the people saying how we need to do this for the left behind in the US, but all the details of how exactly would work get hand waved away.

 

We are going to help the working class by slapping huge tariffs on the things they need to buy.

 

We are going to incentivise foreign manufacturers to invest billions of dollars and years of time to build factories in the US, when the reason for doing so could go away overnight if China sells Tiktok or if the Vietnamese government compliments Trump's golf swing.

 

I do not have confidence that the administration who sets tariff policy by ChatGPT has a coherent strategy to rebuild the economy for the working class. They just hope they can act crazy and the other countries will freak out and give them whatever they want so they can declare victory. That may work some of the time, but I'm skeptical that you gain more in concessions than you lose. Countries that depend heavily on the US may cut short-term deals but seek to lessen their reliance on the US in the future, while other countries will gladly fill the vacuum for those that want trade deals less vulnerable to Trump's flights of fancy.

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, aws said:

I hear the people saying how we need to do this for the left behind in the US, but all the details of how exactly would work get hand waved away.

 

We are going to help the working class by slapping huge tariffs on the things they need to buy.

 

We are going to incentivise foreign manufacturers to invest billions of dollars and years of time to build factories in the US, when the reason for doing so could go away overnight if China sells Tiktok or if the Vietnamese government compliments Trump's golf swing.

 

I do not have confidence that the administration who sets tariff policy by ChatGPT has a coherent strategy to rebuild the economy for the working class. They just hope they can act crazy and the other countries will freak out and give them whatever they want so they can declare victory. That may work some of the time, but I'm skeptical that you gain more in concessions than you lose. Countries that depend heavily on the US may cut short-term deals but seek to lessen their reliance on the US in the future, while other countries will gladly fill the vacuum for those that want trade deals less vulnerable to Trump's flights of fancy.

Why are we looking to random guests on Tucker Carlson (nuff said) to articulate possible strategy for a policy that is wreaking havoc on global markets?  Shouldn't the administration (or god forbid the President) be able to articulate it in a way that doesn't have commentators guessing and members of his own party saying they don't like it?

[james22]

 

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, aws said:

I hear the people saying how we need to do this for the left behind in the US, but all the details of how exactly would work get hand waved away.

 

We are going to help the working class by slapping huge tariffs on the things they need to buy.

 

We are going to incentivise foreign manufacturers to invest billions of dollars and years of time to build factories in the US, when the reason for doing so could go away overnight if China sells Tiktok or if the Vietnamese government compliments Trump's golf swing.

 

I do not have confidence that the administration who sets tariff policy by ChatGPT has a coherent strategy to rebuild the economy for the working class. They just hope they can act crazy and the other countries will freak out and give them whatever they want so they can declare victory. That may work some of the time, but I'm skeptical that you gain more in concessions than you lose. Countries that depend heavily on the US may cut short-term deals but seek to lessen their reliance on the US in the future, while other countries will gladly fill the vacuum for those that want trade deals less vulnerable to Trump's flights of fancy.

 

I'm just happy to finally have a President & administration that gives a shit about the middle class.

 

[hardcorevalue]

The amount of cope from some posters here is hilarious.

 

Either way we all have to adapt, we have 4 years of this. 

[nwoodman]

Patrick Boyle’s take https://youtu.be/IpKe_HbVG64?si=Ew53lVVEfrkvjdK1

 

[Ghost]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'm just happy to finally have a President & administration that gives a shit about the middle class.

 

 

Cubsfan, I genuinely admire you devotion to Mr. Trump.  

 

Mr. Trump has been an employer his entire life, no one would accuse him of giving a fig about his employees (also know as middle class)

I thank Mr. Trump for making the market cheap again, giving all of us an opportunity to make some profits. 

[cubsfan]

Just now, Ghost said:

 

Cubsfan, I genuinely admire you devotion to Mr. Trump.  

 

Mr. Trump has been an employer his entire life, no one would accuse him of giving a fig about his employees (also know as middle class)

I thank Mr. Trump for making the market cheap again, giving all of us an opportunity to make some profits. 

 

There is no doubt about it.  The last administration detested the middle class. Could not have been more obvious. And certainly Hollywood Obama did nothing for "his people".

 

I hope you make a ton of money on this downturn.

[Mephistopheles]

[dwy000]

17 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'm just happy to finally have a President & administration that gives a shit about the middle class.

 

Now that might be funniest post in a long time. 

[cwericb]

20 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'm just happy to finally have a President & administration that gives a shit about the middle class.

 

WOW!

 

Anyone who truly believes that....

A bunch of shifty billionaires, 

Led by a lunatic who has gone bankrupt half a dozen times,  

Who has a reputation of stiffing people with whom he has done business 

And whose wealth comes from inheriting nearly a billion dollars of NYC property 30-40 years ago 

That this person is actually going to look after the middle class,

Then that would seem to define the term  "Delusional".

 

[Gregmal]

I know, I know, I get it guys! It’s ridiculous that presidents and politicians are not mandated to be bound with concern and take action over a few days or weeks of stock market action! How horrible! 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

This seems like a paradise for stock pickers. Same way money flowed around in pockets of the market from April 2020-early 2022.
 

Trumps unpredictability has always been predictable. 

 

+1!  Greg's right about this.  I don't think this will be as bad as the Pandemic correction.  Somewhere in the middle.

 

Trump likes to create chaos to get the deals he wants.  He doesn't care if a handful of people fail, but he does care if things really start to turn against him.  We aren't there yet, but we aren't that far either.  

 

Another 10%-20% drop and you will see deals, negotiations, policy changes...and then he'll find a way to make himself the hero from all of it!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

37 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'm just happy to finally have a President & administration that gives a shit about the middle class.

 

 

Pppphhhhttttt!  Hahahahahahaha!!    I think I just wet my pants!  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

@cubsfan luckily we have data on the middle class….and the economy….happy to be wrong on this….but let’s see how Trump does….we’ve got our starting point Inauguration Day…let’s see how the deficit, unemployment, GDP, inflation, real wages (across quartiles), manufacturing job #’s progress….at six month intervals from here.

 

I assume in two or three years time if all these numbers are meaningfully worse you’d be happy to admit Trump was ultimately wrong on this course of action?…it’s one thing to say you care about the middle class….and it’s quite another to come up with the right solutions and the ability to execute on those solutions to make it happen. IMO the electric shock therapy he’s dropping right now is insane & financially illiterate but very happy to admit my mistake in two or three years if all those numbers above are higher and hope you’d say the same? 

[nwoodman]

A good take by Henry McVey (attached) in his latest Flash Macro.  The regional breakdown is worth a read but nothing startling 

 

“Rates: We expect 10-year rates to rally, but probably not trade sustainably below 4% once investors recognize that inflation could move up closer to 4% plus from 3%. Powell had said that tariff-driven inflation is ‘transitory,’ but the level of these tariffs

will put pressure on that statement. Said differently:even as growth weakens, the Fed will need to follow a measured approach to easing.

 

From a currency standpoint, we expect the USD will likely stay weaker, Euro and JPY stay stronger, and we are watching countries like China and Vietnam. All else being equal, we see a closer proximity between the U.S. and the rest of the world, whichcould also affect flow of funds.

 

Equities: As of this writing, the S&P 500 is down 12% from its 2/19 peak, and down 4.8% vs. the 4/2 close.

For now, we would not rush to buy the dip. While the market was discounting 15% or so tariffs, it was not discounting 25-30%. Keep in mind that during the last bout of tariff-driven macro anxiety in 2018 (which ultimately proved benign), markets fell 20% peak-to-trough. Also, as we show in Exhibit 3, the market has not fully yet discounted recession risk.

 

Similar to our message in 2020, we think allocators of capital should be prepared with shopping lists in

anticipation of opportunities, particularly if hard-landing type conditions occur. Given the amount of money on the sidelines, we think credit will likely bend, not break. On the equity side, would expect more volatility, potentially presenting an opportunity to lean in, especially if a recession scenario gets fully priced in.”

 

2025-april-tariffs-flash-macro.pdf

Edited April 5, 2025 by nwoodman

[cwericb]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I know, I know, I get it guys! It’s ridiculous that presidents and politicians are not mandated to be bound with concern and take action over a few days or weeks of stock market action! How horrible! 

 

No. What is happening with the stock market is not the problem.

 

What is happening with the stock market is a symptom of Mr. Trumps bumbling through international affairs where he has managed to piss off and insult pretty well every other country in the world, specifically all or most of US allies and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

@cubsfan luckily we have data on the middle class….and the economy….happy to be wrong on this….but let’s see how Trump does….we’ve got our starting point Inauguration Day…let’s see how the deficit, unemployment, GDP, inflation, real wages (across quartiles), manufacturing job #’s progress….at six month intervals from here.

 

I assume in two or three years time if all these numbers are meaningfully worse you’d be happy to admit Trump was ultimately wrong on this course of action?…it’s one thing to say you care about the middle class….and it’s quite another to come up with the right solutions and the ability to execute on those solutions to make it happen. IMO the electric shock therapy he’s dropping right now is insane & financially illiterate but very happy to admit my mistake in two or three years if all those numbers above are higher and hope you’d say the same? 

 

Absolutely! You can count on it.

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

No. What is happening with the stock market is not the problem.

 

What is happening with the stock market is a symptom of Mr. Trumps bumbling through international affairs where he has managed to piss off and insult pretty well every other country in the world, specifically all or most of US allies and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

 

The best was in the first term, when he sprinted to the front for a photograph in Europe and pushed another world leader aside because he accidentally stepped in front of him!

 

 

This dipshit, narcissistic, bully is now the most powerful man in the world who is turning 100 years of history upside down!  Cheers!