Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

That’s a pretty good take on what I think will happen to Elon:

 

[nsx5200]

Secret Pentagon memo on China, homeland has Heritage fingerprints - The Washington Post

"An internal guidance memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth focuses on deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense. In some instances, the document is nearly a word-for-word facsimile of a report from the conservative think tank behind Project 2025[Heritage Foundation]."

 

Along the same lines: US reorients its army, China and Taiwan become main priority | RBC-Ukraine

 

It seems to indicate that the administration is pivoting from Europe/Ukraine/Russia to China/Taiwan/Indo-Pacific.

 

China, meanwhile, is trying to shore up its internal economy.  They know that a crappy economy tend to lead people to overthrow the government, and somewhat well-fed people tend not to overthrow their government (see Egypt and their bread subsidy).  From what I can tell, the Chinese people are starting to grow a bit restless, and a bit more bold in their internal social medias while conforming to the standards of their censorship.

[LC]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wisconsin-supreme-court-rejects-effort-block-musks-1m/story?id=120319945

 

Teflon (f)elon!

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, dealraker said:

POTUS spending is already trending well above Biden spending.  It is all being "fixed" by the fixer via massive revenue decline. [<- HaHa!, It's killing me!, John ] Welcome to the DJT business model, a consistent one for some 60 years of failure.

 

@charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

This is pretty striking to me [  ]:

 

DR - dr.dk - Abroad [March 30^th 2025] : Trump's authoritarian ambitions could hit Danish pensions.

 

The aware and knowledgeable voter is dead ... - long live the ignorant voter..!

 

Quote

... No well-thought-out plan

 

If you ask Paul Krugman whether there is an overall and well-thought-out economic plan in relation to the major changes that the Trump administration is promising, the answer is no.

 

Krugman cannot see an overall plan.

 

Instead, he calls what is happening in the United States "mercantalism." Or to put it another way: What is happening in the United States now is protectionism. The philosophy of the White House is – according to Krugman – that "if you buy from me, I win. If I buy from you, I lose."

 

The White House does not see international trade as a win-win situation. Trump's philosophy when it comes to international trade is simple: One party is a winner, and the other party is a loser.

 

President Trump had the same view on world trade when he was last president.

 

But back then, there were people in the White House and in the US central administration who limited the president's actions. That is no longer the case.

 

- Those people are gone, says Paul Krugman.

 

Edited March 31, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

There were plenty of guys like Wray in the first term. Old news.

 

But the Democratic party has been hijacked by the far left - which Americans roundly voted against on Nov 5.  When they are warned that this is why they lost the election - they double down on the far left and force out the moderates.

 

It's wonderful to see, since it assures the death of the party.

 

First time, there were a lot of Republicans (not so much MAGA) in the administration.  They resisted when Trump would fuck up.  So they got canned and exiled!

 

Now you have MAGA fuck ups in positions where you had Republicans, and we're watching the shitstorm they are rapidly creating.  Trump doesn't have to screw up this time, he's put worse drivers than himself in lead positions.  

 

 

We go together like cocaine and waffles!  Cheers!

[dealraker]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

This is pretty striking to me [  ]:

 

DR - dr.dk - Abroad [March 30^th 2025] : Trump's authoritarian ambitions could hit Danish pensions.

 

The aware and knowledgeable voter is dead ... - long live the ignorant voter..!

 

 

Thinking throughout the US is running at a special needs Kindergarten level.  Trump has created conflict and chaos his entire life, it defines him, it has empowered him.  Supporters have always sensed he was taking from others baskets while adding to theirs.  The constant grievance and blame sells so incredibly well to those who are externally focused, those who do not look within for change and improvement.

 

Give a man someone to look down on and he will empty his pockets for you.

[73 Reds]

11 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Thinking throughout the US is running at a special needs Kindergarten level.  Trump has created conflict and chaos his entire life, it defines him, it has empowered him.  Supporters have always sensed he was taking from others baskets while adding to theirs.  The constant grievance and blame sells so incredibly well to those who are externally focused, those who do not look within for change and improvement.

 

Give a man someone to look down on and he will empty his pockets for you.

Nah, the majority of Americans voted for one form of chaos over another.  How easy is it to forget, or ignore the reasons why.  

[dealraker]

58 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Nah, the majority of Americans voted for one form of chaos over another.  How easy is it to forget, or ignore the reasons why.  

Again Reds, you underestimate the harm in Trump culture.  I can only wish you were correct. 

Edited March 31, 2025 by dealraker

[Sweet]

4 hours ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

Just looking at that DUI hire makes me cringe.

 

DEI out DUI in - made me laugh

[73 Reds]

8 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Again Reds, you underestimate the harm in Trump culture.  I can only wish you were correct. 

That's just it - I don't estimate or project.  Just call 'em like I see 'em.  And we've seen this all before.

[John Hjorth]

Charlie [ @dealraker ], @73 Reds and every one else,

 

Why does it appear as if there are almost no real and serious discussions anywhere in USA of what the policies the current administration of the United States of America is doing to the state budget, and future state budgets?

 

It's all burried in 'bullet points', slogans, populism, [propaganda?] etc. - No where to look for the overall consequenses [, likely meaning 'all those unpopular desicions we leave to the next guy/girl, and if that next guy/girl want to just to kick the can longer down the road to the next next guy/girl, then so be it. We need the sun to shine on us when we're finally in the limelight!'

 

The whole thing appears totally reckless to me.

Edited March 31, 2025 by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

Charlie [ @dealraker ], @73 Reds and every one else,

 

Why does it appear as if there are almost no real and serious discussions anywhere in USA of what the policies the current administration of the United States of America is doing to the state budget, and future state budgets?

 

It's all burried in 'bullet points', slogans, populism, [propaganda?] etc. - No where to look for the overall consequenses [, likely meaning 'all those unpopular desicions we leave to the next guy/girl, and if that next guy/girl want to just to kick the can longer down the road the next next guy/girl, then so be it. We need the sun to shine on us when we're finally in the limelight!'

 

The whole thing appears totally reckless to me.

John, your feeling is quite understandable.  But kicking the can down the road on certain issues is not an option.  Nor was the directional status quo on a number of other issues.  Of course sudden change looks like chaos; it is.  But the notion that all such changes are reckless is a description of convenience unless you are certain of the ultimate outcome.  Most folks who make such a claim have an agenda. This specifically includes "the sky is falling in" crowd and those judging results after a mere two months.  Personally I avoid the opinions of anyone with an agenda and rather, let the facts speak for, and play out for themselves.    

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Charlie [ @dealraker ], @73 Reds and every one else,

 

Why does it appear as if there are almost no real and serious discussions anywhere in USA of what the policies the current administration of the United States of America is doing to the state budget, and future state budgets?

 

It's all burried in 'bullet points', slogans, populism, [propaganda?] etc. - No where to look for the overall consequenses [, likely meaning 'all those unpopular desicions we leave to the next guy/girl, and if that next guy/girl want to just to kick the can longer down the road to the next next guy/girl, then so be it. We need the sun to shine on us when we're finally in the limelight!'

 

The whole thing appears totally reckless to me.

For the same reason plenty rush in to take the bait on the "fake jobs numbers" post....of course, when it's "our team" we can get to the bottom of things and ascertain the necessary details and proper perspective. When it's not "our team", diatribe and drivel rules the day....everything is sensational and everyone on the "other team" is obviously just an idiot. 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @73 Reds and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What are the actual procedures for processing of the US budget in relation to the congress and POTUS? Where to read about it to get a basic understanding?

 

[Here, please remember, I'm an ignorant Dane! Here, in the Danish Parlament, no political decisions with economic consequences are taken without the financing of such initiatives is covered also.]

Edited March 31, 2025 by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

13 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you, @73 Reds and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What are the actual procedures for processing of the US budget in relation to the congress and POTUS? Where to read about it to get a basic understanding?

 

[Here, please remember, I'm an ignorant Dane! Here, in the Danish Parlament, no political decisions with economic consequences are taken without the financing of such initiatives is covered also.]

The short answer to your question is special interests rule the day. 

[nsx5200]

That's how it is... big experiments in 4 year chunks.  With the mid-terms, sometimes shorter in 2 year chunks.  It's a try-fast-fail-fast and see what sticks model.  Any "long-term" strategies are embodied by the two political parties.

[LC]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/frances-marine-le-pen-found-guilty-of-embezzlement-b8c42dac

 

This is how a real country deals with corrupt politicians.

[rogermunibond]

US dollar reserve currency status isn't just from our national debt and sizeable equity markets.

 

The terms of global trade are mostly conducted in dollars, trade finance same, hedging FX same, commodity hedging, simillarly global debt and financing is usually in dollars so debt derivatives - interest rates, etc.

 

When a Japanese exporter wants to hedge Brazilian real exposure, they generally don't hedge JPY to BRL directly.  They usually hedge through JPY to USD and BRL to USD, iirc.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you, @73 Reds and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What are the actual procedures for processing of the US budget in relation to the congress and POTUS? Where to read about it to get a basic understanding?

 

[Here, please remember, I'm an ignorant Dane! Here, in the Danish Parlament, no political decisions with economic consequences are taken without the financing of such initiatives is covered also.]

 

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

The short answer to your question is special interests rule the day. 

 

 

Here are some macro data from The Economist - what do you see? :

 

 

[Spooky]

30 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Here are some macro data from The Economist - what do you see? :

 

Denmark looking pretty solid!

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, LC said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/frances-marine-le-pen-found-guilty-of-embezzlement-b8c42dac

 

This is how a real country deals with corrupt politicians.

By having a court trial with no jury and yanking the ability to run for office? I don’t profess to know anything about the case, but one can imagine how this setup could be used to control elections quite easily. 

[backtothebeach]

1 hour ago, LC said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/frances-marine-le-pen-found-guilty-of-embezzlement-b8c42dac

 

This is how a real country deals with corrupt politicians.

 

Apparently she’s not smart enough to defraud the EU while maintaining plausible deniability, and staying below the threshold for criminal charges.

 

Like a few years ago, there was a scandal about MEPs stopping by the EU parliament early on Friday mornings on their way to the airport, only to sign in and receive the €300 daily allowance.

There were so many that there was a line in front of the place where they signed in.

[Cigarbutt]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

...

Why does it appear as if there are almost no real and serious discussions anywhere in USA of what the policies the current administration of the United States of America is doing to the state budget, and future state budgets?

It's all burried in 'bullet points', slogans, populism, [propaganda?] etc. - No where to look for the overall consequenses [, likely meaning 'all those unpopular desicions we leave to the next guy/girl, and if that next guy/girl want to just to kick the can longer down the road to the next next guy/girl, then so be it. We need the sun to shine on us when we're finally in the limelight!'

The whole thing appears totally reckless to me.

The whole thing appears...to me.

You're not the only one (about recent populist bullet points):

What has been missing is not the raw data:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/61187-Long-Term-Outlook-2025.pdf

https://www.pgpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/chart-pack-us-budget-2.pdf

What has been missing (for quite some time now) is the (relative and growing) absence of bi-non-partisan conversations.

[DooDiligence]

It's all about the he said she said bullshit.

 

 

Edited March 31, 2025 by DooDiligence

[John Hjorth]

11 minutes ago, Cigarbutt said:

The whole thing appears...to me.

You're not the only one (about recent populist bullet points):

What has been missing is not the raw data:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-03/61187-Long-Term-Outlook-2025.pdf

https://www.pgpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/chart-pack-us-budget-2.pdf

What has been missing (for quite some time now) is the (relative and growing) absence of bi-non-partisan conversations.

 

Thank you, Carl [ @Cigarbutt ],

 

Awesome, - just awesome post.