Political Posts

[Castanza]

9 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

Classic Jared Diamond question with his theory in Germs, Guns and Steel:

NotebookLM summary, "Europe's political fragmentation, while seemingly a weakness, ultimately proved to be an advantage in fostering innovation. While one ruler might reject a new idea, another might embrace it, leading to competition and progress."

 

An monolithic autocractic style government can go down the wrong path for a long time, whereas competition amongst fragmented governments will weed out the bad ideas and the good ideas copied, rather quickly, or risk elimination.

 

If I remember correctly, ancient Chinese rulers erroneously ended their sea exploration when they found no other civilization comparable to their, and essentially stopped the flow of new ideas and competition until the post industrial era when Europe landed in China.  "The Last Emperor" captures that time period when old China and the new European-centric world met again, albeit from a limited point of view.

 

Now, the world's gotten much smaller due to the advanced global communications we have, and competition is now on a global scale, essentially for all to see in real-time.  I would claim that all the world leaders now are aware of the competitions, and are no longer so inner-looking.  The true risk for U.S. and Chinese leaders is to make sure they're not selecting their advisors with yes-men, or they risk getting stuck in local minimas.  It makes looking at Trump's cabinet selections a bit more interesting from that point of view.

Good thoughts thanks for sharing. I do agree the world is not as small as it was, and my very long term view is the world will eventually consolidate under one global leadership. It’s the next logical step as current emerging markets move into modernity. Still a ways off though. 
 

Some of the hindrance China had with sailing was also changes in leadership. One emperor wanted to explore and the next would change direction and literally let the ships rot. 
 

With Trump it is interesting and we shall see. Most risk is mitigated with the 4 year rule in the US imo. 
 

@zippy1 thanks for sharing. I was referring more to expansion abroad in “unknown lands”. Although they did expand within their regional zone China never pushed into America, Africa, or the Middle East, even though they likely did trade or set foot in those areas. 

[Luke]

 

 

Boris Johnson admitting its a proxy war in ukraine.

[dwy000]

Having the Syrian army disintegrate on contact shows how much Putin has had to pull out of the region to support his Ukraine efforts.  

[John Hjorth]

Interfax - Economy [December 2^nd 2024] : The former assets of Carlsberg in the Russian Federation were withdrawn from the temporary government.

 

I wonder what this really means. It's all over the place in Danish News Media now. No Press Release from Carlsberg about it, Somehow someone from Carlsberg has informed, that it's aware of the decree, too, and is chewing on it. First simply just stealing a beer brewery, and then delivering it back? Has somebody been drinking from the night pot? - Or too much vodka? 

[UK]

23 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Interfax - Economy [December 2^nd 2024] : The former assets of Carlsberg in the Russian Federation were withdrawn from the temporary government.

 

I wonder what this really means. It's all over the place in Danish News Media now. No Press Release from Carlsberg about it, Somehow someone from Carlsberg has informed, that it's aware of the decree, too, and is chewing on it. First simply just stealing a beer brewery, and then delivering it back? Has somebody been drinking from the night pot? - Or too much vodka? 

 

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiverussia-approves-320-million-sale-of-carlsberg-assets-to-local-businessmen-document-shows-3750593

 

Some compensation I guess...rule of law:))

 

Edited December 3, 2024 by UK

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/02/how-ukraine-uses-cheap-ai-guided-drones-to-deadly-effect-against-russia

 

[Paarslaars]

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/business/2024/12/03/china-bans-exports-to-u-s-

 

China's firing back.

[Xerxes]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crl3ndxglwxo.amp
 

 

There has been a plethora of recent articles reminiscing the “lost opportunity” of Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. 
 

Ukraine was certainly played with the so-called guarantees in exchange for removing the nuclear weapons. No question about it. 
 

Question remains however, in my view, if Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, were actually the heir to that arsenal. It is not like that had command and control. 
 

Yet I will also add there were a large number of Soviet leaders who were Ukrainian or of Ukrainian origin. That makes in my view Ukraine equal to Belarus and Russia and above other Soviet states. The support that Ukraine provided to the Soviet cause is immeasurable, both being an engineering Center of excellence (Antonov), a breeding ground for military and political leaders as well as being the breadbasket feeding the empire. 
 

But does all these make, Ukraine, the legitimate heir to the Soviet nuclear arsenal, just by virtue of having a significant part of the arsenal physically located there ?
 

What do board member think 

 

Not completely unrelated, I recall reading that the gas pipelines in Armenia are owned by the Russian State. Another legacy of the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union and freezing of status quo. 

[Luke]

 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, Luke [ @Luke ]!,

 

This is certainly an interesting interview of Sergey Lavrov, to chew on, meticously in bites, over some days. I did not know he was able to speak English, his English is actually quite good. To me, it's a totally different experience - more 'direct', I would say,  than experiencing him speaking Russian, combined with a translation.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

YouTube : Anders Puck Nielsen [November 26^th 2024] : What is a long-range missile? – The hysteria about ATACMS and Storm Shadow.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Pretty fast collapse of the Russian and Hezbollah supported Assad regime. They both have other issues to tend to, it seems, so Assad is left hanging.

 

Edited December 7, 2024 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

21 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty fast collapse of the Russian and Hezbollah supported Assad regime. They both have other issues to tend to, it seems, so Assad is left hanging.

 

Among scumbags certain very special rules rule. The first of the unwritten rules among such friends is that there aren't any. The second and secondary is that you never let a good friend left behind hanging. It's all about logic.

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Among scumbags certain very special rules rule. The first of the unwritten rules among such friends is that there aren't any. The second and secondary is that you never let a good friend left behind hanging. It's all about logic.

 

Yup, maybe they will wipe each other out. 

[Dinar]

I am not sure that the collapse of Assad's regime is good for the West, or the Christians in Syria.

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

I am not sure that the collapse of Assad's regime is good for the West, or the Christians in Syria.

 

I agree, @Dinar,

 

Reuters [December 7^th 2024] : Syrian rebels topple President Assad, prime minister calls for free elections.

 

Likely he would go with his family to Iran or Russia, I don't think he is welcome elsewhere. He has three kids, likely must be youngsters by now. His wife Asma al-Assad is sick with leukemia diagnosed in May 2024. My guess would be Russia. Please note the information about the maneuvers of the plane after take off, which really don't exclude a plane crash, otherwise indicates a transponder shut-down.

Edited December 8, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

The enemy of your enemy isn’t necessarily your friend. The applies to the Syria situation. I think we still have some troops there but this isn’t our fight.

It does show that the Russians and Hezbollah are weakened and need to focus on core operations in Management lingo.

 

Turkey plays a hand there as they want to become a local hegemon.

Edited December 8, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The enemy of your enemy isn’t necessarily your friend. The applies to the Syria situation. I think we still have some troops there but this isn’t our fight.

It does show that the Russians and Hezbollah are weakened and need to focus on core operations in Management lingo.

 

Turkey plays a hand there as they want to become a local hegemon.

Assad was never an enemy of the West.  Had Obama & Co not betrayed and killed Quadaffi, there was a chance to turn Assad into an asset.  In any case, in my book, a sybarite is usually less dangerous than fanatics.  

[Xerxes]

 

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations.

 

Consequence:

 

Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon.

Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well.

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Why do you think Russia will keep their naval base?

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why do you think Russia will keep their naval base?

Just a guess. No reporting. 
 

It is the bill that needs to be paid to get Moscow non-involvement. As soon as Aleppo fell, the die was cast. No longer the question of “if” rather “when”, and the “when” came really fast for Damascus. 
 

and for practical reasons, given who are the rebels’s imperial masters are, focus will be undoubtedly be eastward, against the autonomous Kurdish region. 

[Xerxes]

Putting aside the regional powers and the shifting sands and ebbs and flows in terms of their influence, the net winner could be the Syrian people, and their chance at new beginning, IF (big if) their revolution doesn’t get hijacked by “hardliners” factions within the rebel coalition. 
 

 

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations.

 

Consequence:

 

Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon.

Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well.

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

 

Good summary.

[cubsfan]

58 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Just a guess. No reporting. 
 

It is the bill that needs to be paid to get Moscow non-involvement. As soon as Aleppo fell, the die was cast. No longer the question of “if” rather “when”, and the “when” came really fast for Damascus. 
 

and for practical reasons, given who are the rebels’s imperial masters are, focus will be undoubtedly be eastward, against the autonomous Kurdish region. 

 

Perhaps the real reason is that the rebels will have to take it away. After what Putin did for Assad, he's not going to let that happen. That base is much to valuable to him, considering his relationship with Turkey.

[Spekulatius]

40 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Perhaps the real reason is that the rebels will have to take it away. After what Putin did for Assad, he's not going to let that happen. That base is much to valuable to him, considering his relationship with Turkey.

Turkey backs the rebels though. I think it’s in the West and Turkey‘s interests to kick the Russians out there. It‘s also in the rebels interests to kick the Russians out there and prevent them from getting foothold hold again, if I were in their shoes.

 

Who knows who is going to gain power and what their interests are and decisions will be.

[cubsfan]

^^^ That's what I mean, if I wasn't clear. Russia is not going to give up that Mediterranean  seaport given that they are captive to Turkey in access to the Mediterranean via the Black Sea.