Political Posts

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

The countries that need it most though are South Korea  (they will be blackmailed by Kim soon enough) and Taiwan, followed by Japan.

This is true even more so with people like Elon Musk with their “longtermism “ having access to US government. I’d recommend reading up on long termism.

 

That's what it will come to - if you don't think the USA has your back - you're wise to nuke up.

I doubt Trump will pull back from NATO if Europe keeps it's commitments up - and that's the way it should be. Germany ought to be leading the charge. Do you think Germany is prepared militarily?

 

Will be interesting to see how Trump handles China. He's had successful dialogues with Xi before.

[UK]

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/trump-taps-us-senator-marco-rubio-for-secretary-of-state-3715336

 

Rubio is a top China hawk in the Senate, and was sanctioned by Beijing in 2020 over his stance on Hong Kong following democracy protests.

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, Xerxes said:

... steps were taken in the past few years to ensure that a president on its own cannot withdraw from NATO. It needs congress if I remember correctly. 
 

these steps would not have been put in place if the threat was not real.  ...

 

Thank you, @Xerxes ,

 

Important, to remember, so one's mind doesen't stray too much away from reality.

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

I've never thought of things that way, but to me, it's true.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/trump-taps-us-senator-marco-rubio-for-secretary-of-state-3715336

 

Rubio is a top China hawk in the Senate, and was sanctioned by Beijing in 2020 over his stance on Hong Kong following democracy protests.

Lol, there go Chinese stocks - down another 2% or so. I wonder if Tepper is still in his generational trade. BABA is down pretty much where I sold it and that was before the stimulus package was announced.

 

There will be more opportunities to trade stonks. Trump is making volatility great again.

[Intelligent_Investor]

Its Joever for the China trade over the next few years if Rubio becomes Secretary of State. Dude hates China with a passion

[sleepydragon]

43 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Its Joever for the China trade over the next few years if Rubio becomes Secretary of State. Dude hates China with a passion

it’s bad for china but good for xi

[Spekulatius]

Just give Taiwan some nukes. Makes the world a safer place.

[nsx5200]

Some more China news, for those that care...

https://www.wsj.com/world/china-xi-jinping-latin-america-acf6dbc1?mod=hp_lead_pos7

"[...] in a region [South America] where China has replaced the U.S. as the dominant trading partner for most big economies[...]Beijing has signed up most of Latin America and the Caribbean to an infrastructure program that excludes the U.S"

"China is a voracious buyer of Argentina’s lithium, crude oil from Venezuela and Brazilian iron ore and soybeans"

"The region’s nations are generally sincere in their desire for warm relations with the U.S., but they are often seen as a secondary priority in Washington. Beijing’s diplomats and executives, meanwhile, actively engage with local and national governments almost regardless of their political leanings."

"The U.S., Feeley [U.S. ambassador, early 2016] said, “looks at Latin America as a problem not an opportunity.”"

"China is crowding in with manufactured exports[...]Already some countries are raising tariffs on Chinese goods"

 

It looks like China's making inroad into accessing South America's natural resources while providing additional export outlet.  The in-article video also provided more details on the deep-water port that China's invested in via their BRI, as well as the ramp-down of BRI investments due to China's internal financial troubles.  With Trump in office, I suspect Latin America will continue to be seen as a problem.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Some of that is to be expected. The USA is awash in natural resources, China not so much.

[John Hjorth]

This is 'great' :

 

Reuters [ November 15^th 2024] : Putin tells Scholz that Russia is willing to look at energy cooperation, Kremlin says.

 

Agreement among [just] 'businessmen', to obtain 'sustainability' among trading partners? German T2 tanks [very successful] at work in Ukraine to destroy Russian forces and gear by now? - Please give me a break! - Those who are in need of energy to survive and to get on the other side of the coming winther is Ukraine, - not Germany!

Edited November 16, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Just saw this in my substack feed from John Hempton. This is what China‘s largest bank wrote in their shareholders letter. You really can’t make this up.

:

 

https://substack.com/home/post/p-151735409?source=queue

 

 

 

For reasons I do not need to discuss I find myself reading the annual report of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - the world’s biggest bank. 

Sure there are greater than 6 trillion of assets (in USD). I just thought you should see how it is managed.

This is a direct quote from the Chairman’s letter:

In the past year, we adhered to the guidance of the Party building theory and exercising rigorous corporate governance. We carried out thematic education and united the whole Bank under the guidance of the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. We remain committed to “Two Affirmations” and “Two Upholds” implemented them to the letter. We earnestly rectified problems discovered during central inspections, audits, and supervisions, resolutely fought corruption, and unceasingly conducted full and rigorous Party self-governance to forge a clean ICBC. We pushed forward the organic integration between the Party’s leadership and corporate governance. The newly revised Articles of Association has been approved by the regulatory authority and come into effect, and the governance system of a modern financial enterprises with Chinese characteristics continued to be improved.

No further comment is required.

 

John

Edited November 16, 2024 by Spekulatius

[crs223]

Wow.  At first I thought “this sounds similar to US corporate platitudes on DEI”.  But it’s worse.  From ChatGPT:

 

The Chinese principles of the “Two Affirmations” (两个确立, Liǎng gè Quèlì) and the “Two Upholds” (两个维护, Liǎng gè Wéihù) are central ideological directives introduced during Xi Jinping’s leadership in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). These principles emphasize loyalty to the party's core leadership and reinforce its authority.

Two Affirmations (两个确立)

The "Two Affirmations" were solidified during the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CCPin 2021. They affirm:

1. The establishment of Xi Jinping’s core position within the Central Committee and the Party.
2. The establishment of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guiding ideology of the CCP.

These affirmations serve to elevate Xi Jinping’s leadership and ideological framework as central to the CCP's governance and China's policy direction.

Two Upholds (两个维护)

The "Two Upholds" require party members and institutions to:

1. Uphold the authority of the Central Committee of the CCP.
2. Uphold Xi Jinping’s core leadership within the CCP.

This principle emphasizes unity and loyalty to the centralized leadership structure of the CCP, with Xi Jinping at its helm.

Significance

Together, the "Two Affirmations" and "Two Upholds" establish a framework of ideological and political loyalty to Xi Jinping and the CCP's centralized authority. These principles have been instrumental in consolidating Xi Jinping’s power and ensuring policy continuity under his leadership. They also reflect the CCP's emphasis on maintaining internal unity and control amid domestic and international challenges.

[Spekulatius]

The shareholder letter fails to even mention the shareholders or shareholder value. There is (imo) no other take than that shareholders don’t count and it’s clear that they are screwed or sacrificed for the greater good, just the Hero in that hero movie.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

Or they keep up appearence for the CCP in official communication? Dnno maybe wishful thinking.

[John Hjorth]

New YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen about 'the digital war' [I'm not sure I understand any of its basics, nor its contents,-so, let it hereby be up to you, to judge and decide]

 

- Please be aware: This is [to me] personally severely biased towards / against X - please make up your own personal  mind about it, and take care!:

 

Anders Puck Nielsen [November 17^th 2024] : Twitter and responsible social media.

[formthirteen]

On 11/12/2024 at 12:38 AM, Spekulatius said:

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

Europe has nukes and weak leadership. I don't think nukes would help Europe in deterring an autocrat such as Xi or Putin from attacking or collaborating.

 

Examples of weak leadership and the result:

 

Quote

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops against Ukraine was a “grave escalation” of the conflict, according to government sources.

 

Quote

The last time Scholz talked to Putin on the phone was on 2 December 2022. They last met in person a week before the full invasion of Ukraine.

Putin and Scholz sat opposite each other at a very long table Kremlin Press Office/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
They last met in Moscow a week before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022

At the time, Scholz returned to Berlin with promises from Putin that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine. The attack a week later was the final break in trust between Germany and Russia.

For decades, Berlin had tried to ensure peace with Moscow by binding the two countries together with trade and energy links. That aspiration shattered overnight when Russia launched its full invasion of Ukraine.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75lxypz7wqo

 

Another example of a ”grave escalation” from 2016:

 

 

Edited November 17, 2024 by formthirteen

[Spekulatius]

Nukes are the only way to deter a threat from other (Putin’s) nukes. I do agree leadership is a huge problem. Germany is going to have snap elections in February 23 and who knows what his brings. Best outcome is that the CDU gains ground and get as mandate to do things differently. I am not terribly optimistic about this outcome.

 

These multiple party coalitions can’t get anything done, that’s for sure.

[John Hjorth]

New post on X about Russian gas supply to Austria by Anton Gerashchenko - I really can't help it here - it actually reads to me as an awesome user manual!  : 

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2024 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

50 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Nukes are the only way to deter a threat from other (Putin’s) nukes. I do agree leadership is a huge problem. Germany is going to have snap elections in February 23 and who knows what his brings. Best outcome is that the CDU gains ground and get as mandate to do things differently. I am not terribly optimistic about this outcome.

 

These multiple party coalitions can’t get anything done, that’s for sure.

 

From : www.icanw.org :

 

[Pelagic]

Article by the WSJ that gets into the details of how Russia recruits and pays contract soldiers, as well as compensates their families. The war has been an economic boon for some of Russia's poorest regions it would seem, which is also why popular opposition to it from those regions is limited. And a seemingly effective means for the Russian state to transfer wealth from wealthy districts to poorer ones.

 

Quote

The payouts [death benefits] cost around 8% of state expenditures in the year to June 2024, expanding the budget deficit, according to an analysis by Re: Russia, a research group. The payouts have contributed to a high inflation rate plaguing Russia, leading the central bank to raise interest rates to near-record 21%. And more men going to the front is stoking a labor crunch, leaving employers short of welders, drivers and builders.

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e

Archive version - https://archive.ph/wtrq3

[Spekulatius]

Well, the labor crunch is probably permanent because the mortality rate of these recruits is very high. 

[UK]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, the labor crunch is probably permanent because the mortality rate of these recruits is very high. 

 

Exactly, @Spekulatius,

 

Statista : Male and female population in Russia as of January 1, 2024, by age group :

 

 

There is really fired up in the stove for Mother Russia for the future. Please note the small vintages 0-4 [It looks like Russia has partly stopped reproducing the last few years.] Small vintages 20 - 24 and 25 - 29 likely also separately affected further by war casuilties. Mother Russia sits on a giant time bomb with pension liabilities, that gets gradually triggered, when the large vintages leave the labor market for retirement, and the small vintages shall pay for those large vintages' pension entitlements comming due.

 

Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock...., Boom!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And the guy running the circus is more interested in getting more land instead of caring for the people living on the soil he already control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

There will likely happen a collapse of societal structures in Russian hinterland to the East, whole villages and small towns will go defunct and cease to exist, and going on vacation in Tjernobyl in Ukraine will be marketet by LVMH to the Russian people as luxury.

 

I actually went to the town called Kysyl in Eastern Russian, - close to the border to China, I think -, the town mentioned in WSJ article posted by @Pelagic. [At warp speed - Google is my friend].

 

Wikipedia article about Kyzyl, looks fairly nice by the pics in the article. I landed in the crossing that Google Earth cursor indicated as the center of the town, and looked around - the Google Mobile has actually been in town!

 

Ohh-my! - Roads in the town aren't paved, cars run on gravel, tilted poles holding airborne power lines in one huge mess in the air, a couple of old Ladas, hedges and bushes haven't been cut for ages, small kids hanging out together at a street corner, a huge dirty concrete truck taking the corner nearby the kids, absolutely nothing maintained, absolutely everything looked like crap in all directions, except one building. - Welcome to Russia! 

 

I was paralyzed by it! I'll spare you for screenshots. I tried to look around about 5 other places, some places a bit better, the same depressing experience all places. I would go nuts living such a place. The mental downwards drag for the citizens living such a place must be huge.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In stead some eye candy here : The lightning up of the Christmas tree at the central yard yesterday afternoon here in Odense - the city where the poet Hans Christian Andersen was born :

 

Edited November 17, 2024 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.

 

Yep, @UK,

 

Finally! - And likely meant as an appriate response to what happened all over the place in Ukraine last night.