Political Posts

[nsx5200]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3285238/chinas-stimulus-seems-be-trickling-through-it-too-early-tell

"Indices of sentiment in China’s manufacturing sector both returned to expansion in October, while non-manufacturing also improved"

"The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI echoed the official survey, beating projections with a rise to 50.3 in October from 49.3 the previous month."

 

Don't know how much to trust these numbers given that it's from SCMP.  Will need to keep an eye out for more independent reports to see if it's true.

 

https://www.australianmanufacturing.com.au/jp-morgan-global-manufacturing-decline-persists-as-new-orders-shrink-for-fourth-month/

"The moderation in the PMI score, however, suggested a slight easing in the rate of contraction. Notably, China showed signs of improved operating conditions, while declines in the US and the euro area slowed."

"Major manufacturing regions, including China, the US, the euro area, Japan, and the UK, all reported declining export volumes, pointing to faltering global trade dynamics."

"Employment levels declined across various regions, including China, the U.S., and the euro area, marking the steepest rate of job losses since August 2020"

 

Note that the PMI that JP Morgan appears the same as the PMI from Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI.

 

So it looks like the decoupling is continuing, and the slow down in China might be moderating.  Trump will play the role of Chaos Monkey to stress both the U.S. and Chinese systems.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

I don't think China wants to be a reserve currency.  They can't run trade surpluses if they are a reserve currency.

 

 

This is exactly right. Becoming a reserve currency is detrimental to their mercantilist export economy. They can either have their currency become a true reserve currency and run trade deficits or continue their export mercantilism but they can’t have both.

 

Keep on mind that the first step to become a reserve currency is to have a freely convertible currency. With the currency controls on place and the yuan pegged to the USD, this point is moot.

Edited November 7, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

 I said this two years ago, and will say it again, instead of sending weapons and money to Ukraine, offer every Russian serviceman who deserts and every Russian male/female between 20-40 who leaves Russia $50K and $5K respectively plus permanent residency in US/Canada/Germany.  Watch Russian army and population melt away, and comrade Putin will have to negotiate.   

 

This would have worked in the first 6 months of the war and should have been done then but almost all soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine currently are contract soldiers who are *usually* from the lowest socioeconomic rung of Russian society, signing up to fight for a few thousand dollars a month. You're just creating an even larger incentive to sign up with a defection bonus. And an even larger incentive for Russian commanders to throw their men into attacks they're unlikely to survive. Ukraine does pay out defection bonuses for those surrendering equipment, however Russia has gone to extreme lengths to target those who defected in order to deter it (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68337794).

 

Russia has for practical purposes an almost unlimited capacity to send people from its poorest regions to fight in Ukraine and take casualties at current rates. And somewhat counterintuitively as their economy worsens, higher interest rates, cost of living increases etc. that capacity increases because the pool of potential recruits who need that $4,000 a month or so grows. And it's not clear that people in the more prosperous regions of Russia have a strong view on the deaths of their countrymen, especially since they're "volunteering" for service in Ukraine unlike as was the case during their invasion of Afghanistan which utilized conscripts where casualties were a major reason for their withdrawal.

 

It's a tough position for Ukraine currently, and their best option is still the one that the West has sought to avoid all along, hit Russia in their pocketbook by targeting crude exports. Who knows, it's been primarily Biden who's discouraged long range strikes into Russia, maybe if the UK and France take the lead on things, that changes the calculus as they've been in favor of allowing them.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2024 by Pelagic

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Kasparov is a pompous fool, he knows chess and probably nothing else!  He can't pick wives (on number 3), and he is no strategist.  Trump is not loyal to Putin, but US does not need to spend money on helping Ukraine, Germany needs Ukraine to fight, so Germany should pick up the tab.  I said this two years ago, and will say it again, instead of sending weapons and money to Ukraine, offer every Russian serviceman who deserts and every Russian male/female between 20-40 who leaves Russia $50K and $5K respectively plus permanent residency in US/Canada/Germany.  Watch Russian army and population melt away, and comrade Putin will have to negotiate.   Instead, the pompous moron Garry wants hundreds of billions of US aid and hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives to be wasted while he is sitting on Upper West Side of Manhattan scratching himself and saying do I look like Napoleon or Bismark!

Why does Germany need to lick up the tab? They don’t need Ukraine to continue fighting either, there are a lot of countries between Ukraine, Russia and Germany.

 

I do agree that low crude prices is one arrow to hit both Iran and Russia in their pocketbook nd targeting the Shadow fleet would be one way to do so.

[Sweet]

Germany shouldn’t pick up the tab alone, Europe should, together if it is important to them - and I think it is.

 

Europe has sent a lot of money already, more total than America when all added together.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

 

This narrative that Europe hasn’t helped is just wrong.  The question is it enough.

Edited November 7, 2024 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

Reuters - Europe - Ukraine and Russia at War [November 8^th 2024] : Putin is ready to talk to Trump but his Ukraine demands are unchanged, Kremlin says.

 

I wonder what will happen when these two goats [, not to be confused with GOATs, here rams] butt heads in the near future.

 

Will Trumps approach for 'big rocket man' be similar to that applied against 'little rocket man'? [<- Now perhaps that turned out reading at least bit funny, if one has hit Friday mood and sentiment, but that was unintentional here.]

[Sweet]

43 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Reuters - Europe - Ukraine and Russia at War [November 8^th 2024] : Putin is ready to talk to Trump but his Ukraine demands are unchanged, Kremlin says.

 

I wonder what will happen when these two goats [, not to be confused with GOATs, here rams] butt heads in the near future.

 

Will Trumps approach for 'big rocket man' be similar to that applied against 'little rocket man'? [<- Now perhaps that turned out reading at least bit funny, if one has hit Friday mood and sentiment, but that was unintentional here.]

 

There was an article several months ago, I think in reuters as well, that advisers to Trump would present to Putin a plan, and if Putin did not agree to it, the Trump admin would provide Ukraine with anything and everything it wants militarily. 

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, Sweet said:

There was an article several months ago, I think in reuters as well, that advisers to Trump would present to Putin a plan, and if Putin did not agree to it, the Trump admin would provide Ukraine with anything and everything it wants militarily. 

 

Thank you, @Sweet ,

 

I'll try to dig it up and post a link to it here as well, if I find it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Here we go : 

 

Reuters - United States US Elections Donald Trump [June 25^th 2024] : Exclusive: Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow

Edited November 8, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

9 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thank you, @Sweet ,

 

I'll try to dig it up and post a link to it here as well, if I find it. 

 

Think this is it John, the details are slightly different from what I remembered though:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/

 

Edited November 8, 2024 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

You beat me to it,  @Sweet!, ,

 

It's actually interesting stuff, I would say, at interim.

 

Its proposal does not exclude Ukraine from joining NATO in all eternity, but for an extended period.

 

That would make sense, at least to me personally, the same way that there will be no short-cuts available for Ukraine to join EU because of existing governmental issues in the incumbent administration [corruption etc.]

 

The paper referred to in the article also attached here.

America_First,_Russia,___Ukraine_ - 20241108.pdf

Edited November 8, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

You beat me to it,  @Sweet!, ,

 

It's actually interesting stuff, I would say, at interim.

 

Its proposal does not exclude Ukraine from joining NATO in all eternity, but for an extended period.

 

That would make sense, at least to me personally, the same way that there will be no short-cuts available for Ukraine to join EU because of existing governmental issues in the incumbent administration [corruption etc.]

 

The paper referred to in the article also attached here.

America_First,_Russia,___Ukraine_ - 20241108.pdf 403.88 kB · 0 downloads

It wasn’t as bad as I thought it might be, I hope it is toughened further and I hope trump will back his threat up if negotiations fail.  Fundamentally though, still think we Europeans need to do more.

[John Hjorth]

46 minutes ago, Sweet said:

It wasn’t as bad as I thought it might be, I hope it is toughened further and I hope trump will back his threat up if negotiations fail. ...

 

The way things formally are structured about transfer of presidential power in USA, Trump is actually cut-off from doing anything till after his second Inauguration Day on 20^th January 2025. In this actual context, when talk is about losses of lives [on both sides], there is unfortunately a long time to that date.

 

46 minutes ago, Sweet said:

... Fundamentally though, still think we Europeans need to do more.

 

It is already happening as we post. And it's not going to be 2 per cent defence spending budgets going forward to keep up with and to reality, it's going to get to more - much more, and stay to at that higher level! [3 - 4 per cent, perhaps certain places even higher.]

 

Soon this discussion about European NATO contributions will be muted by NATO stats.

 

- At least It's now locally here clear to the Danes it's absolutely needed to be so. And a lot of stuff on that front is actually in the works here by now. I.e. about naval shipbuilding in the mold.

Edited November 8, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

4 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

It is already happening as we post. And it's not going to be 2 per cent defence spending budgets going forward to keep up with and to reality, it's going to get to more - much more, and stay to at that higher level! [3 - 4 per cent, perhaps certain places even higher.]

 

Soon this discussion about European NATO contributions will be muted by NATO stats.

 

- At least It's now locally here clear to the Danes it's absolutely needed to be so. And a lot of stuff on that front is actually in the works here by now. I.e. about naval shipbuilding in the mold.

 

I hope you are right John.  Europe has the ability to be a major player in defence.  We let the Americans do too much for us and it has made us soft.  Hope that is changing.

[zippy1]

Very interetsing ....  

Quote

Recently, university students in Zhengzhou, Henan, have popularized a "cheap travel" trend called "Night Ride to Kaifeng." This involves riding shared bicycles for over 50 kilometers, taking four to five hours to reach Kaifeng City to enjoy late-night snacks and visit parks. The trend reached its peak the night before last and early this morning, when the main roads were occupied by what some netizens called an "army of special forces cyclists," with many shared bikes parked all over Kaifeng. Netizens exclaimed, "Bianjing has fallen!" (Bianjing is the ancient name for Kaifeng). Local traffic authorities announced a ban on the activity yesterday, and the three major shared bike platforms also took steps to curb the trend.

"This niche passion track has actually been discovered by university students," some observed. The "Night Ride to Kaifeng" became so popular because in June of this year, four female university students from Zhengzhou decided on a whim to bike over 50 kilometers to Kaifeng just to try Kaifeng's famous soup dumplings. They documented the journey and shared it on short video platforms, sparking widespread discussion online. As a result, more and more young people from Zhengzhou have started to imitate the activity."

 

Quote

 

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/中國/article/20241110/s00013/1731173051576/鄭州大學生掀熱潮-特種兵萬車「陷汴京」塞道路-流量接不住-「夜騎開封」先開後封

[Spekulatius]

8 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Very interetsing ....  

 

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/中國/article/20241110/s00013/1731173051576/鄭州大學生掀熱潮-特種兵萬車「陷汴京」塞道路-流量接不住-「夜騎開封」先開後封

I love soup dumplings. Might be worth the bike ride.

[John Hjorth]

A new YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen :

 

YouTube - Anders Puck Nielsen [November 7^th 2024] : What will Trump's victory mean for Ukraine?

 

 

 

I think this analysis is fairly good, without being too speculative, because of our general lack of tangible information about it, and the same time I hear some considerations not contained in what I have read on and in Mainstream Media about it.

 

Personally, I think Mr. Nielsen is missing one important and material point here though. The assymmetry in an evetual negotiation situation : Both The mediator [Donald Trump] and one of the warring parties [Volodymyr Zelenskyj] care and worry about collateral damages, while the latter combattant [Vladimir Putin] does not [give a damn about such].

Edited November 10, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

If U.S. actually withdraws from NATO (as far fetched as it sounds now), can that be catalyst which makes it “ok” for Ukraine to join NATO from Kremlin point of view, and stop this nonsense. 

[UK]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/10/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine/

 

 

[UK]

8 hours ago, Xerxes said:

If U.S. actually withdraws from NATO (as far fetched as it sounds now), can that be catalyst which makes it “ok” for Ukraine to join NATO from Kremlin point of view, and stop this nonsense. 

 

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

 

Edited November 11, 2024 by UK

[John Hjorth]

On 11/11/2024 at 6:18 AM, UK said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/10/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine/

 

It quickly spread like some bush fire to all other news media, citing Washington Post [, not normal procedure for Reuters and AP, I would say].

 

I already before I went to bed late last night thought this could be false information, because it does not comply with Putins personality as I percieve it. If Trump said so, it would contain a hardly hidden threat against Putin '... already material US military presence in Europe ...'

 

- Nobody threats Putin, only Putin has the privilege of threating others, according to Putin's World View, and his view of Great Mother Russia!

 

Or he [Putin] was actually told so by Trump, and is now in denial, because he is furious about he was threatened, and thereby loosing face to realities.

 

Add to that material personal sactions and an international arrest order. Putin is insulted and offended like some sentitive bitch over that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here, such a thing is called a 'New Paper Duck'! [, meaning when one 'duck' says 'quack', we better say 'quack' too, to not fall behind in the news stream, in stead of doing independently verification].

Edited November 16, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

 

steps were taken in the past few years to ensure that a president on its own cannot withdraw from NATO. It needs congress if I remember correctly. 
 

these steps would not have been put in place if the threat was not real. 
 

John Bolton says that Trump sees the war as “Biden’s war” and wants to start his first day with a clean slate. 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

It quickly spread like some bush fire to all other news media, citing Washington Post [, not normal procedure for Reuters and AP, I would say].

 

I already before I went to bed late last night thought this could be false information, because it does not comply with Putins personality as I percieve it. If Trump said so, it would contain a hardly hidden threat against Putin '... already material US military presence in Europe ...'

 

- Nobody threats Putin, only Putin has the privilege of threating others, according to Putin's World View, and of of Great Mother Russia!

 

Or he [Putin] was actually told so by Trump, and is now in denial, because he is furious about he was threatened, and thereby loosing face to realities.

 

Add to that material personal sactions and an international arrest order. Putin is insulted and offended like some sentitive bitch over that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here, such a thing is called a 'New Paper Duck'! [, meaning when one 'duck' says 'quack', we better say 'quack' too, to not fall behind in the news stream, in stead of doing independently verification].

 

 

I read Elon Musk was also on that call. Allegedly. 

[UK]

30 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

steps were taken in the past few years to ensure that a president on its own cannot withdraw from NATO. It needs congress if I remember correctly. 
 

these steps would not have been put in place if the threat was not real. 
 

John Bolton says that Trump sees the war as “Biden’s war” and wants to start his first day with a clean slate. 

Yes I do not disagree with you on this at all, IIRC correctly, these measures are more simbolic. The thing I am sceptical though this would change Kremlins view on NATO for the better. I think more likely they would see this as opportunity to be even more agressive.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

I read Elon Musk was also on that call. Allegedly. 

 

No, @Xerxes,

 

Those headlines were misleading.

 

That call was from Zelenskyj, and the phone was handed over to Musk, so Zelenskyj could thank Musk for making Starlink available to Ukraine for warfare purposes.

[Spekulatius]

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

The countries that need it most though are South Korea  (they will be blackmailed by Kim soon enough) and Taiwan, followed by Japan.

This is true even more so with people like Elon Musk with their “longtermism “ having access to US government. I’d recommend reading up on long termism.