Political Posts

[tnp20]

US and China to launch economy and finance working groups to stabilise ties

https://archive.ph/NV4KQ

 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1760

 

If this mechanism works, I think we will have moments of progress( economy and markets) punctuated by Xi's constant stupidity.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by tnp20

[Xerxes]

What would be the “adjusted” stats if Western support was withdrawn ?
 

This is like the argument that stocks are fairly valued in 2021, because interest rate were close to zero. Who said rock-bottom interest rate was going to be permanent. 

 

 

Across Ukraine 42% say that even if Russia intensifies its bombing of cities Ukraine should keep fighting. Some 21% think that the conflict should be frozen without making any concessions to Russia. Only 23% think it is worth initiating negotiations. Even in the east and south, which have borne the brunt of the war, support for negotiations is relatively low, at 32% and 39% respectively. Only 5% of Ukrainians are willing to cede any territory to Russia and only 18% to forswear joining nato.

[sleepydragon]

The economy in China is so bad, but political climate is becoming tighter,  more policy regulating everything, and more war planes flying around Taiwan. Confidence on the country is none, capital is gushing out of China, and CCP is scared and policing everything even more now.

 

I now feel this time it’s different. Xi is not prioritizing economy. He’s increasing his grips and he is going to prioritize his objectives first. I doubt they have the ability to start war now but I think he would want to if he can. What matters is without confidence, economy is not going to get back for next few years.

[tnp20]

Technocrats are trying to do the right thing but they are all scared of Xi so not doing what is really needed, just enough for show.

 

Xi is telling his people to eat bitterness and get ready for extreme scenarios.

 

Having said that sentiment is so bad, that there are some green shoots and things are beginning to improve....if Xi doesnt put his foot in his mouth again, things should improve naturally....if he says something  stupid from his "ideology book", all bets are off. Current "football" he is kicking around is the healthcare sector. Healthcare entrepreneurs have lost billions in last few months and hedge funds are shorting chinese helathcare.

 

Foreigners are burnt to a crisp. Many wont ever come back to China given other better options. It all comes down to Domestic investor and. their billions in savings and animal spirits ...which by itself can do the trick if they can get some confidence back.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by tnp20

[UK]

5 hours ago, tnp20 said:

Technocrats are trying to do the right thing but they are all scared of Xi so not doing what is really needed, just enough for show.

 

Xi is telling his people to eat bitterness and get ready for extreme scenarios.

 

Having said that sentiment is so bad, that there are some green shoots and things are beginning to improve....if Xi doesnt put his foot in his mouth again, things should improve naturally....if he says something  stupid from his "ideology book", all bets are off. Current "football" he is kicking around is the healthcare sector. Healthcare entrepreneurs have lost billions in last few months and hedge funds are shorting chinese helathcare.

 

Foreigners are burnt to a crisp. Many wont ever come back to China given other better options. It all comes down to Domestic investor and. their billions in savings and animal spirits ...which by itself can do the trick if they can get some confidence back.

 

 

 

Some domestic investors are also voting with their feet: https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-economic-worries-spur-a-different-kind-of-shopping-spree-1321e607

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by UK

[sleepydragon]

3 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Some domestic investors are also voting with their feet: https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-economic-worries-spur-a-different-kind-of-shopping-spree-1321e607

 

that’s also why I think EWBC, the Chinese bank Li Lu invested is interesting. It appears , though I am not sure, they are taking deposits from Chinese who want to transfer their USD to America and use them to invest in US stocks.  According to the CEO, he was met by ZhuRongJi when he visited America and had lunch with a group of American CEOs( he was the only Asian CEO). I trust Li Lu must have some insights with this bank 

[Spekulatius]

Wagner is still in business and the boss is Sytii:

https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/wagner-africa-sytii-prigozhin-gold-12a45769?mod=trending_now_news_3
 

 

Quite well diversified - security muscle, media business (misinformation, troll farms, political advertisement  beer), gold mines and who knows what.

[UK]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Wagner is still in business and the boss is Sytii:

https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/wagner-africa-sytii-prigozhin-gold-12a45769?mod=trending_now_news_3
 

 

Quite well diversified - security muscle, media business (misinformation, troll farms, political advertisement  beer), gold mines and who knows what.

 

Succession policy seems in place:)

 

This is how it works, when the west decides it is not their business anymore:

 

As Wagner’s operations in the Central African Republic grew, it offered services to other African governments that were under domestic pressure and felt abandoned by the West, often because of sanctions or concerns over human rights.

...

Each country that Wagner entered was pulled deeper into Russia’s sphere of influence. Sytii helped run the nonmilitary side of that operation.

[UK]

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html?fbclid=IwAR06WIuzVhT-RWId6IdF1wSMq02t-52t6JD5mVdjQYvzv5xyB7AjaYcWmAY

 

“The weather can be a serious obstacle during advance, but considering how we move forward, mostly without vehicles, I don’t think [the weather] will heavily influence the counteroffensive,” Tarnavsky told Pleitgen in the interview. “Right now, neither the enemy nor us uses large formations, companies, battalions or brigades. We use assault squads, groups of 10 to 15 men,” he explained. “They conduct titanic work of concentrating enemy fire on them and using all the means they have to use to survive.” One of the reasons for the slow advance, the general said, was the fact that Russia had been able to learn some lessons from other Ukrainian offensives. “The Russians are learning quite fast, as they don’t have any other choice. If they don’t learn, they will be defeated sooner,” he explained. “I wouldn’t say they are adapting to our actions, as we also change our tactics.” He said Ukraine had also been adapting to using Western equipment, as well as Western tactics. When asked about rising resistance in the West to continuing weapons supplies to Ukraine, especially in the US, where some have voiced doubt about Kyiv’s chances of success, Tarnavsky said he respected their view. “Let it be the opinion of the skeptics. It’s not a competition and we don’t have a choice,” he said. “I understand somebody may have imagined large scale counteroffensive operations. But times are changing, enemy tactics are changing, weapons change.” “We have one goal – liberation of our territories. However hard it is we will keep on working. And I want to thank even the skeptics, their criticism also influences our task’s success,” he said.

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/on-the-news/how-us-atacms-missiles-could-help-push-ukraine-back-into-crimea/E532E1AB-74C5-4E71-8B98-539B61E1511F

[Dinar]

I find it interesting that Democrats and Biden, are willing to work so hard to defend Ukrainian borders, but not willing to lift a finger to defend American borders from millions of invaders.  

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I find it interesting that Democrats and Biden, are willing to work so hard to defend Ukrainian borders, but not willing to lift a finger to defend American borders from millions of invaders.  

If Biden had done nothing , I think China probably would have already started a war with Taiwan now.  

[John Hjorth]

Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol getting hammered yesterday. Wild, just wild.

 

 

 

[Dinar]

59 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

If Biden had done nothing , I think China probably would have already started a war with Taiwan now.  

Oh, I am not saying that Biden should have done nothing, I am saying that as an American citizen, I wish Biden was as concerned with our borders as he is with Ukrainian borders.  

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

I find it interesting that Democrats and Biden, are willing to work so hard to defend Ukrainian borders, but not willing to lift a finger to defend American borders from millions of invaders.  

 
This very issue sticks in the craw of many Americans. Just proves how worthless Biden is - he will defend Ukraine’s borders but not our own. Biden loves Ukraine more than his own citizens. Of course, if you took millions in bribes, you got to return the favor, while you spit on your own citizens.

[no_free_lunch]

8 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 
This very issue sticks in the craw of many Americans. Just proves how worthless Biden is - he will defend Ukraine’s borders but not our own. Biden loves Ukraine more than his own citizens. Of course, if you took millions in bribes, you got to return the favor, while you spit on your own citizens.

 

Those are not related. The southern border, yes there are costs but it's more enforcement is the issue.  You can do both.

Edited September 24, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[UK]

12 hours ago, Dinar said:

I find it interesting that Democrats and Biden, are willing to work so hard to defend Ukrainian borders, but not willing to lift a finger to defend American borders from millions of invaders.  

 

It is a little bit offtopic, but I found it interesting: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/slow-boil-refugee-crisis-takes-its-toll-even-in-germany-dfdadaae

 

Just over half of migrants who came to Germany in 2015 and 2016 have a job now, said Thomas Liebig, a researcher with the international migration division of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That is higher than in previous migration waves, he said, but far lower than in the U.S., where barriers to employment are lower and the lack of social benefits makes work imperative. U.S. data is less standardized, but a Department of Health and Human Services study found that of refugees who arrived between 2014 and 2018, 83% of men and 67% of women had full-time employment by 2019.

 

I quess "small government" in this case just works better.

[Spekulatius]

Pretty interesting video about Shanghai and how it has changed:

The fellow used to live there and left early 2020 with the Covid-19 outbreak. He noticed some changes and the very few things that stayed the same.

[Spekulatius]

The spy ballon that wasn’t:

 

[mcliu]

Zelenskyy came to Canadian Parliament recently. They gave a standing ovation to an Ukrainian veteran that fought against the Soviet Union in WW2. Turns out that he fought as part of a SS unit.

 

https://forward.com/fast-forward/561927/zelenskyy-joins-canadian-parliaments-ovation-to-98-year-old-veteran-who-fought-with-nazis/

 

The man was identified as Hunka by the Associated Press, which published a photograph showing Zelenskyy smiling and raising a fist during the ovation.

 

The AP caption described Hunka as having “fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada.” The First Ukrainian Division is another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the military wing of the Nazi Party; the unit was also called SS Galichina.

 

This is the same unit that is honored by controversial monuments in Canada, Australia, and, as the Forward recently exposed, the suburbs of Philadelphia and Detroit. Jewish groups have called for their removal.

 

Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was composed of recruits from the Galicia region in western Ukraine. The unit was armed and trained by the Nazis and commanded by German officers. In 1944, the division was visited by SS head Heinrich Himmler, who spoke of the soldiers’ willingness to slaughter Poles.” 
 

Three months earlier, SS Galichina subunits perpetrated what is known as the Huta Pieniacka massacre, burning 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive. 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

Zelenskyy came to Canadian Parliament recently. They gave a standing ovation to an Ukrainian veteran that fought against the Soviet Union in WW2. Turns out that he fought as part of a SS unit.

 

https://forward.com/fast-forward/561927/zelenskyy-joins-canadian-parliaments-ovation-to-98-year-old-veteran-who-fought-with-nazis/

 

The man was identified as Hunka by the Associated Press, which published a photograph showing Zelenskyy smiling and raising a fist during the ovation.

 

The AP caption described Hunka as having “fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada.” The First Ukrainian Division is another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the military wing of the Nazi Party; the unit was also called SS Galichina.

 

This is the same unit that is honored by controversial monuments in Canada, Australia, and, as the Forward recently exposed, the suburbs of Philadelphia and Detroit. Jewish groups have called for their removal.

 

Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was composed of recruits from the Galicia region in western Ukraine. The unit was armed and trained by the Nazis and commanded by German officers. In 1944, the division was visited by SS head Heinrich Himmler, who spoke of the soldiers’ willingness to slaughter Poles.” 
 

Three months earlier, SS Galichina subunits perpetrated what is known as the Huta Pieniacka massacre, burning 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive. 

Funny, Zelensky was applauding a man who would burn alive his grandparents if he had the chance.  In other news....

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russias-army-learns-from-its-mistakes-in-ukraine-a6b2eb4?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[mcliu]

8 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Funny, Zelensky was applauding a man who would burn alive his grandparents if he had the chance.  In other news....

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russias-army-learns-from-its-mistakes-in-ukraine-a6b2eb4?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Strange upside down world now.

 

It seems like the Russians are learning quickly. There is a growing possibility that Ukraine may not prevail despite our weapons. Meanwhile, Ukrainian casualties are mounting quickly. What happens then? 

[no_free_lunch]

Where were your guys criticism when Russia murdered tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians in Ukraine.  This link is just a one off and frankly Russia's wagner group has it's own nazi links.

 

 

If Russia were winning why would they reach for links to North Korea of all places?   What does this say about Russia?

[mcliu]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/ukraine-war-ethics-morality-murky/

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Where were your guys criticism when Russia murdered tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians in Ukraine.  This link is just a one off and frankly Russia's wagner group has it's own nazi links.

 

 

If Russia were winning why would they reach for links to North Korea of all places?   What does this say about Russia?

Go read the thread and you will find it.  I have never been a fan of Putin nor do I think that the Russian invasion was justified.  

You however seem incapable of admitting that Shushkevich and Bandera were mass murderers, and committed genocide.  A nation that glorifies people who commit genocide, calls them national heroes and puts up their statues cannot expect sympathy from civilized people.  Its people yes, its government no!