Political Posts

[Luke]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

How in the world are you provoking Russia when there was peace and Russia invaded you??

I think i explained some of the motives for the invasion of russia already, not saying it isnt vicious and brutal.

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

You are operating with very twisted logic.

I don't think so

[Xerxes]

52 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

If you look at the Vietnam war, I don't think the US really lost it in the greater sense.  If it was there to deter communist expansion and push them to waste resources it worked.  At least for that period.

Are you serious ?  Vietnam was no different than any other “short war” or “isolated war” that a superpower cooked-up but ultimately gained its own inertia and just end up dominating everything … as Ukraine is for Russia or Yemen was for Saudi Arabia. 
 

There was no grand strategy vis a vis Vietnam to “push them to waste resources”.

Now military pow-wow fanboys (not you) will point out the 1968 Tet offensive and other things, and point out in great details how actually US didn’t lose militarily only politically. The more clever fanboys (not talking about you) talk about number folks killed. Look, they say. “We killed millions vs 60,000 dead Americans”. We are awesome, they assert.

 

It doesn’t matter. We are not in a slaughterhouse, counting bodies as a proxy for victory and/or greatness. 

 

“War is the continuation of policy with other means." a wise German once said. 
 

In your case, you are actually asserting some sort of political grand strategy. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Are you serious ?  Vietnam was no different than any other “short war” or “isolated war” that a superpower cooked-up but ultimately gained its own inertia and just end up dominating everything … as Ukraine is for Russia or Yemen was for Saudi Arabia. 
 

There was no grand strategy vis a vis Vietnam to “push them to waste resources”.

Now military pow-wow fanboys (not you) will point out the 1968 Tet offensive and other things, and point out in great details how actually US didn’t lose militarily only politically. The more clever fanboys (not talking about you) talk about number folks killed. Look, they say. “We killed millions vs 60,000 dead Americans”. We are awesome, they assert.

 

It doesn’t matter. We are not in a slaughterhouse, counting bodies as a proxy for victory and/or greatness. 

 

“War is the continuation of policy with other means." a wise German once said. 
 

In your case, you are actually asserting some sort of political grand strategy. 

 

 

 

 

 

The US never sought to take over Vietnam ,they just wanted to prevent the spread of communism.  So not really the same as Ukraine.  

 

It was definitely grand strategy what they did.  Policy of containment.  It is well documented.   I for sure am no expert on it but it seems like it worked.   The west was able to hold off the communists.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

The US never sought to take over Vietnam ,they just wanted to prevent the spread of communism.  So not really the same as Ukraine.  

 

It was definitely grand strategy what they did.  Policy of containment.  It is well documented.   I for sure am no expert on it but it seems like it worked.   The west was able to hold off the communists.

dude, you got to stop doing that. No one said anything up “US wanting to annex Vietnam”. You are just making that point in order to differentiate it from Ukraine. All to fit a specific narrative that you are trying to float. Guess what USSR didn’t want to annex Afghanistan nor did Saudi Arabia wanted to annex Yemen. Nor does Iran wants to annex Iraq. 
 

Funny enough, you are not wrong broadly speaking about Russia’ threat, yet you fight so hard in coming up with narratives and literarily making up points that are wrong which has nothing to do with case in point.  
 

I said you are not wrong broadly speaking about Russia, but now that I read your comment and the way you are diluting US involvement in Vietnam, that just tells me that you are one sided and heavily skewed in your thinking. 
 

As far as your dismissive “policy of containment” broad stroke, it happened to kill millions and change the direction of millions of lives. It just didn’t have a central villain for the main casting as the Ukraine-Russia story does, which is really gets you going. 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-29/ukraine-steps-up-strikes-on-crimea-as-offensive-grinds-on?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

For much of the war, Russia has hinted that striking Crimea would be a red line that might trigger escalation in response. But as Ukraine’s attacks have intensified and had increasing success, those threats have not materialized.

...

Ukrainian officials suggested at least some of the attacks in Crimea have used the Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles provided by the UK and France, some of the longest-range weapons in Ukraine’s current arsenal. Russian air defenses seem incapable of shooting them down, said the European official.

...

Despite the dramatic strikes on Crimea, allied officials remain skeptical that Ukraine will be able to make a decisive breakthrough in the ground war this year as Kyiv’s forces have struggled to punch through the extensively mined defensive lines Russia has built in the areas it occupies in Ukraine’s east and south.

[Xerxes]

Fascinating read

 

[UK]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/3/armenia-to-join-international-criminal-court-wrong-decision-russia-says

 

https://www.barrons.com/news/armenia-has-no-alternative-to-russia-led-security-alliance-kremlin-e442118b

[no_free_lunch]

So "UK", to summarize, Russia provided security .. promises (something less than guarantees) and then had the one disputed territory taken over by Azerbaijan.  Now Armenia is pivoting away from Russia.  Additional background, Azerbaijan is using advanced Turkish (NATO) supplied weapons to attack Armenia.   Armenia is now getting closer with the US (and other NATO countries perhaps).   What a complicated situation.  Hopefully the current borders can hold.  I just hope the west doesn't screw over the Armenians with false promises.  They are in a very delicate place.

Edited October 3, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Castanza]

Ukrainian Men Abroad Avoid War, and Are Racked by Guilt
 

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukrainian-men-abroad-avoid-war-and-are-wracked-by-guilt-1e7fe3fd?st=303fflght5pa2iy&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 

It’s one thing to do this in silence…or to avoid a war you don’t think there is any business being fought. But going to the press and having a sympathy piece written about you and your “guilt” for not joining up while your country is getting invaded is a whole new level of Fortunate Son. I can look back and understand to a degree those who fled to Canada during Vietnam, or those who chose not to join the military during the GWOT due to no real objective post 2011…after all GWOT was a voluntary war….but your literal home is being invaded, your friends went off to fight for it and you flee to Canada for “school”.

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

Ukrainian Men Abroad Avoid War, and Are Racked by Guilt
 

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukrainian-men-abroad-avoid-war-and-are-wracked-by-guilt-1e7fe3fd?st=303fflght5pa2iy&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 

It’s one thing to do this in silence…or to avoid a war you don’t think there is any business being fought. But going to the press and having a sympathy piece written about you and your “guilt” for not joining up while your country is getting invaded is a whole new level of Fortunate Son. I can look back and understand to a degree those who fled to Canada during Vietnam, or those who chose not to join the military during the GWOT due to no real objective post 2011…after all GWOT was a voluntary war….but your literal home is being invaded, your friends went off to fight for it and you flee to Canada for “school”.

Yeah, that’s really a tough one to understand.

[no_free_lunch]

On 10/5/2023 at 5:52 AM, Castanza said:

Ukrainian Men Abroad Avoid War, and Are Racked by Guilt
 

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukrainian-men-abroad-avoid-war-and-are-wracked-by-guilt-1e7fe3fd?st=303fflght5pa2iy&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 

It’s one thing to do this in silence…or to avoid a war you don’t think there is any business being fought. But going to the press and having a sympathy piece written about you and your “guilt” for not joining up while your country is getting invaded is a whole new level of Fortunate Son. I can look back and understand to a degree those who fled to Canada during Vietnam, or those who chose not to join the military during the GWOT due to no real objective post 2011…after all GWOT was a voluntary war….but your literal home is being invaded, your friends went off to fight for it and you flee to Canada for “school”.

There are a lot of stories of Israelis fleeing, 35% find ways to skip the military,  so why do you seemingly favor one and not the other.  I think both situations are similar.  Both are fighting to hold the western world order together.  

[Castanza]

11 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

There are a lot of stories of Israelis fleeing, 35% find ways to skip the military,  so why do you seemingly favor one and not the other.  I think both situations are similar.  Both are fighting to hold the western world order together.  

 

Who said I view those individuals differently? 

 

Who said I don’t support Ukraine? I just think US involvement should be limited because of the issues we have here. 
 

And fwiw, Hamas and Russia are two completely different scales of attack and warfare…
 

Israel has mandatory service for all citizens. Ukraine does not. Israel is constantly dealing with attacks, Ukraine does not. These aren’t even comparable situations imo. 

[no_free_lunch]

19 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Who said I view those individuals differently? 

 

Who said I don’t support Ukraine? I just think US involvement should be limited because of the issues we have here. 
 

And fwiw, Hamas and Russia are two completely different scales of attack and warfare…
 

Israel has mandatory service for all citizens. Ukraine does not. Israel is constantly dealing with attacks, Ukraine does not. These aren’t even comparable situations imo. 

Ukraine has over 100k dead, many civilians.  If you believe tucker its 500k dead.  They have been fighting a full scale war.  I totally sympathize with Israel but it's not the same.  

Edited October 8, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Ukraine has over 100k dead, many civilians.  If you believe tucker its 500k dead.  They have been fighting a full scale war.  I totally sympathize with Israel but it's not the same.  

Yeah 500k dead and 6M refugees is a catastrophe. 100K sounds way too low.

[Dinar]

26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Yeah 500k dead and 6M refugees is a catastrophe. 100K sounds way too low.

Is it really 500K dead?  Not that 100K is too little, 100K dead is a tragedy, I hope it is not 500K dead.  

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Is it really 500K dead?  Not that 100K is too little, 100K dead is a tragedy, I hope it is not 500K dead.  

I don’t know. I do know that we’ve been lied to a lot. Certainly the narrative this winter that Russian forces will collapse with the spring offensive was total bullshit. So I tend to believe the Ukrainian estimates as bogus and more propaganda.

[no_free_lunch]

36 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I don’t know. I do know that we’ve been lied to a lot. Certainly the narrative this winter that Russian forces will collapse with the spring offensive was total bullshit. So I tend to believe the Ukrainian estimates as bogus and more propaganda.

The 100k is closer to Ukraine sources. It's mostly civilians.  

 

500k is tucker Carlson interviewing some US General. Sorry don't have the quote handy. 

 

The 500k is propaganda and I think total bs.Ukraine entire army was 400k at peak hence why that number can't be trusted.  Usually 3 wounded per killed so would be 1.6m casualties.   You know I'm actually Republican supporter generally but they do say some low iq things.

Edited October 9, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

The 100k is closer to Ukraine sources. It's mostly civilians.  

 

500k is tucker Carlson interviewing some US General. Sorry don't have the quote handy. 

 

The 500k is propaganda and I think total bs.Ukraine entire army was 400k at peak hence why that number can't be trusted.  Usually 3 wounded per killed so would be 1.6m casualties.   You know I'm actually Republican supporter generally but they do say some low iq things.

Thanks - and I hope you’re correct. But I trust the US gov about as much as Ukraine’s - not much. So far, Tucker and other sources have been much more honest on any issue that impacts our government and their foreign interests.

 

A perfect example is the US/Iran fiasco

[no_free_lunch]

15 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Thanks - and I hope you’re correct. But I trust the US gov about as much as Ukraine’s - not much. So far, Tucker and other sources have been much more honest on any issue that impacts our government and their foreign interests.

 

A perfect example is the US/Iran fiasco

I think it's probably closer to 100k.  If you assume 3 wounded for every dead that's still around 400k or 1 percent of the entire pre war population.   They would have collapsed with the larger number. 

 

Anyways the number doesn't matter, what matters is Ukraine still would rather fight than be enslaved. 

 

I know this has gotten old and repetitive but that is part of it. This is an endurance event.  

Edited October 9, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Dinar]

3 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I think it's probably closer to 100k.  If you assume 3 wounded for every dead that's still around 400k or 1 percent of the entire pre war population.   They would have collapsed with the larger number. 

 

Anyways the number doesn't matter, what matters is Ukraine still would rather fight than be enslaved. 

 

I know this has gotten old and repetitive but that is part of it. This is an endurance event.  

The sad part, aside obviously from all death and destruction, is that Russia has a lot more ability to endure than Ukraine.  

[Xerxes]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html

[Pelagic]

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months.

 

100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months.

 

100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

[Pelagic]

42 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

 

True casualty numbers are always going to be kept close to the vest. My point is simply Ukrainian casualties this year are likely a lot lower than last, despite being on the offensive for the last few months. 

 

I don't think any serious analysts expected Ukraine to roll up the 500 mile front across Southern and Eastern Ukraine in one offensive. The goal for this offensive was fairly clear in that they wanted to sever the land bridge between Rostov on Don and Russian forces in Crimea. Sever the land bridge, knock out the Kerch straight bridge, and starve out Russian forces in Crimea and Southern Ukraine west of the divide, that's their broad strategy and has been since talks of a counter-offensive started. There were even quite a few good posts on it in this thread before the offensive started. If somebody was expecting Ukraine to launch a 2023 version of Operation Barbarossa and push the Russians back to Moscow I don't know what to say.

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

Show me some reputable sources saying what you just said.  Truth is Republicans are making up lies. You know there's an actual war going on, not the time for your political nonsense.