Political Posts

[Xerxes]

On 3/28/2023 at 2:06 PM, Castanza said:

 

Thought this was a pretty good podcast with a few different perspectives from a guy with an interesting background. I'd say approach it knowing that the opinions are anecdotes influenced heavily by real world experiences. But frankly, I'd rather hear opinions from those who have done; over those who sit at desks and form opinions only based on what they read in books. 

 

____________________________

 

Outside of this interview all I will say about this whole situation is that the US is really f%&$ing up by allowing China to potentially broker a peace deal with Russia between Ukraine and other deals with the Saudis. The US Sphere of influence and credibility on a global scale are diminishing. 

 

China could broker something between Iran and Saudi Arabia because it was an honest broker. Not because it is honest per say as a government, rather than it had equal stake on both sides which forces it to be honest. 
 

I can never imagine U.S. government to be honest broker in any shape or form with Iran. 
 

On Russia and Ukraine, I have a hard time to see PRC being that honest broker. Yes they will talk the walk. I truly think the Turks will play a strong and outsize role in whatever comes out of this conflict. They have a stake in a successful conclusion to this miserable conflict. And they are NATO and they are an autocracy at the same time. 
 

Edit:  I should add PRC and Russia have much in common yet much separates then. PRC does not want another 1989 fall of Berlin Wall but also doesn’t want to tear down rule-based post-1945 system we have. Just want to add Chinese characteristics to it. Can’t say the samething about Russia. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

On 3/28/2023 at 6:44 PM, cubsfan said:

 

 You can speculate what's in Putin's mind and what he might do - but you really have no idea. That's the bottom line. The Europeans have constantly underestimated Putin. For years. Even when he took Crimea 9 years ago - they STILL underestimated him.  Now you have this mess. What will Putin do if he is allowed to take Ukraine??   You don't have a clue - only Putin knows that - NATO or no NATO.

 

Putin only understands weak leaders. So you spend the money, stop him now - because he only understands military strength IF someone is willing to use it. That's the language despots understand.

Not just Ukraine. A similar situation in Chechnya,  Georgia,  Kazakhstan.  Anyone who thinks Russia has a better alternative should go live there.  They won't of course,  it's all talk. They want the safety and power of the west. 

[Spekulatius]

Glimpse into Russian cyber warfare:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/30/vulkan-files-leak-reveals-putins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics

[Luke]

Only for german viewers or english subtitles, one of the BEST videos i have seen about china. Frank Sieren lives in Peking for more than 20 years and informs german news agencies about developments there, holds talks about china etc. 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Luca

[cubsfan]

Moving in the right direction:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/major-northern-european-country-to-join-nato-as-tensions-with-russia-rise

 

[no_free_lunch]

It is the right direction. People are scared and for legitimate reasons. 

[Viking]

On 4/1/2023 at 10:13 AM, cubsfan said:

Moving in the right direction:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/major-northern-european-country-to-join-nato-as-tensions-with-russia-rise

 

Finland joining NATO is just one of many examples of how badly Putin / Russia mis-calculated - it has been catastrophic for Russia. There is no way to put lipstick on this pig. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland had never seriously considered joining NATO (please correct me if i am wrong). With Finland, Russia had a buffer along its northern border. No longer. Russia is much worse off.

 

NATO is also now much stronger as an organization. Larger, with Finland and likely Sweden. With a renewed sense of purpose. And with military spending at NATO countries spiking in the coming years. Putin has made NATO a much more formidable adversary for Russia.  

Edited April 2, 2023 by Viking

[cubsfan]

@Viking - Agree. Europe has been galvanized against the bear finally. The real test will be the use of power against Russia - so Putin gets the message.

 

China will be watching closely.

[mcliu]

I think our Western mainstream propaganda media's view on China is far too pessimistic compared to the actual data.

 

 

[Aurel]

On 4/1/2023 at 11:57 AM, Luca said:

Only for german viewers or english subtitles, one of the BEST videos i have seen about china. Frank Sieren lives in Peking for more than 20 years and informs german news agencies about developments there, holds talks about china etc. 

 

 

Hey thank you for the link! It's refreashing to hear some real first hand opinion on china. Corresponds very much to my own travel experiences. Not the typical german "we do it right, so they have to follow us!"-twaddel.

Usualy not a Jung & Naiv-Fan. But this is a good one! Bought the book "Zukunft? China!: Wie die neue Supermacht unser Leben, unsere Politik, unsere Wirtschaft verändert "

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, mcliu said:

I think our Western mainstream propaganda media's view on China is far too pessimistic compared to the actual data.

 

 

I think the primary criticism isn't what they are doing right...which has been noted for the last 15 years...but what they are doing wrong, such as arbitrary property rights, political interference in other sovereign nations, human rights abuse, pollution, etc.

 

They aren't alone in this, nor are Western countries any less culpable in similar or dissimilar circumstances.  But it is worth noting what are the pros and cons of investing or dealing with China. 

 

As someone who watched a cash cow disappear overnight because Beijing decided to do something else with no recourse, and someone who has visited China and has enormous respect for what they have done, I think it's important to understand the risks of investing there.  

 

Cheers!

[Luke]

3 hours ago, Aurel said:

Hey thank you for the link! It's refreashing to hear some real first hand opinion on china. Corresponds very much to my own travel experiences. Not the typical german "we do it right, so they have to follow us!"-twaddel.

Usualy not a Jung & Naiv-Fan. But this is a good one! Bought the book "Zukunft? China!: Wie die neue Supermacht unser Leben, unsere Politik, unsere Wirtschaft verändert "

If you want another recommendation that is as interesting as the interview with Frank Sieren: 

 

This is also a bit linked to the content of china: Economic policies and growing the economy. As counterintuitive it might sound to some economists, wage pressures increase economic growth and efficiency innovations. That american business like amazon tries to pay as little as possible might be good for them and shareholders but not for GDP growth and competition that leads to the consumer and society winning. Common prosperity is the term for a market that benefits the society as a whole and not the shareholder. As @Parsad pointed out, the chinese have a different view on how much business is allowed to control. That can mean that shareholders dont come first as it is the case in the US. 

 

If these policies will lead to a better economy and higher prosperity for the general public remains to be seen, i am personally very bullish on china and i think the people in power there are very well educated and have levers the US cant push, therefore all this counter talk and blaming. China is in a position where they can gain more power than the US, also because of their governmental long term control. I think if one would want exposure to chinas growth and developments in Asia, Prosus is the best vehicle for it. Tencent is under scrutiny at times but they know what the CCP wants and the risk of them being targeted severely is low. The idea of the ,,satisfied,, customer is a good one and i think that shareholders will be rewarded to some degree. The low price and long runway will probably more than compensate for the risk of more severe regulation and redistribution of wealth (which will actually benefit tencent in the longterm because of the general GDP growth for china).

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

I personally am a fan of Jung and Naiv, their videos are generally of very high quality, they ask critical questions, the people on the show are important politicians and one gets a great overview of their competence. Id say that they are too left in some areas and underappreciate capitalism (if capitalism works) but also invite viewers that give a good counter view (Ulrike Hermann, pro capitalism but also radically green). Cheers to my fellow germans @Aurel!

[Luke]

The Video of Frank Sieren changed my oppinion on china a lot, sad its only in german.

[RetroRanger]

21 minutes ago, Luca said:

The Video of Frank Sieren changed my oppinion on china a lot, sad its only in german.

 

Best guy, luckily i am german. I can recommend his books on China  

[Luke]

26 minutes ago, RetroRanger said:

 

Best guy, luckily i am german. I can recommend his books on China  

 

 

This was a good clip to describe the point of view of africa and african-chinese relations vs germany now

[Castanza]

Country level success above all. Very much an "organism" mindset vs individual. 

Strong family values and work ethic remind me of the US post WWII. This is very much a predictor of country success. 

Country success =/= shareholder success to Parsad's point

 

Two simple docs that capture the amazing feats and accomplishments of China along with the ugly side of China. The second one shows the Urban Village issues and the emphasis on growth at all costs. @Luca thanks for the above interviews. 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

The growth in China has been there, but for shareholders China has been a dud and there are many reasons why. high GDP growth does not mean good shareholder returns.

[Castanza]

Question for those in the know. How is the shareholder treatment different between China and India? Is India much more favorable? 

[Saluki]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Question for those in the know. How is the shareholder treatment different between China and India? Is India much more favorable? 

 

I own some BABA and have been raked over the coals by the Chinese government, so I'm more comfortable now with India (Fairfax India) Korea (Coupang) or Mexico (Televisa) going forward.  When Jim Rogers mentioned his bullishness on China, he analogized it to the US in the early 1800s.  If you had invested in the US you were buying into the incredible growth. It was lumpy and you had a civil war, the great depression, a genocide of the Indians, several wars with other countries, numerous presidents assassinated, the bankruptcy of the railroads, corrupt politicians and judges, but it was so good that being directionally correct was enough. But I've soured on that outlook because even if he is right, I don't have 200 years to ride out that volatility and if the legal institutions and respect for property rights isn't there, will my ADRs be worth anything to my grandchildren?  If you were a British merchant and had invested in NY Gas Light Company in 1824 and left the shares in a safe that was hidden, when your descendants came upon the shares almost 200 years later, they would be entitled to the shares in ConEd and all the uncashed dividends along the way.  I don't think anyone believes they wouldn't get every penny of it. 

 

As a country with a strong central government that does what it wants, even if it overrides people's rights, it can move quickly and get things done.  But what are the odds that Xi's successors will always act in a way that benefits China and not themselves. A powerful central government only needs one autocratic leader who won't step down to turn it into a dictatorship. The Chinese people have never had a democracy, so would they even notice if the power grab was inch by inch instead of all at once? Maybe a war with Taiwan is what they want to rally everyone behind the rulers and jail anyone who opposes them?  Who knows?  

 

I feel fairly confident that in India you get some of that Asia growth story and some of that Commonwealth legal system respect for property rights that has benefited most of their former colonies (US, Canada, Australia, NZ).  

 

 

[Castanza]

22 minutes ago, Saluki said:

 

I own some BABA and have been raked over the coals by the Chinese government, so I'm more comfortable now with India (Fairfax India) Korea (Coupang) or Mexico (Televisa) going forward.  When Jim Rogers mentioned his bullishness on China, he analogized it to the US in the early 1800s.  If you had invested in the US you were buying into the incredible growth. It was lumpy and you had a civil war, the great depression, a genocide of the Indians, several wars with other countries, numerous presidents assassinated, the bankruptcy of the railroads, corrupt politicians and judges, but it was so good that being directionally correct was enough. But I've soured on that outlook because even if he is right, I don't have 200 years to ride out that volatility and if the legal institutions and respect for property rights isn't there, will my ADRs be worth anything to my grandchildren?  If you were a British merchant and had invested in NY Gas Light Company in 1824 and left the shares in a safe that was hidden, when your descendants came upon the shares almost 200 years later, they would be entitled to the shares in ConEd and all the uncashed dividends along the way.  I don't think anyone believes they wouldn't get every penny of it. 

 

As a country with a strong central government that does what it wants, even if it overrides people's rights, it can move quickly and get things done.  But what are the odds that Xi's successors will always act in a way that benefits China and not themselves. A powerful central government only needs one autocratic leader who won't step down to turn it into a dictatorship. The Chinese people have never had a democracy, so would they even notice if the power grab was inch by inch instead of all at once? Maybe a war with Taiwan is what they want to rally everyone behind the rulers and jail anyone who opposes them?  Who knows?  

 

I feel fairly confident that in India you get some of that Asia growth story and some of that Commonwealth legal system respect for property rights that has benefited most of their former colonies (US, Canada, Australia, NZ).  

 

 

Thanks Saluki, that makes a lot of sense and I tend to agree. China's growth is highly impressive but the lack of property rights and ability to actually truly own anything is a glaring issue. The lack of justice in the judicial system is a tough one. Could be the same in India tbh I don't know. Overall, this has been my main issue with investing in China and why I don't have any positions in Chinese equities. I think the growth story of China continues, but how to profit from that while minimizing risk? Not sure. Tough to balance western bias and the realities of the Chinese political/economical system. Both have a lot of propaganda. 

 

India on the other hand seems a lot more open to western influence. They seem less corrupt from the top down and seem to strike some semblance of middle ground between autocratic and democratic. They seem more open to the outside world where China like to dominate from the inside out. With the insights from Prem and Fairfax I agree that there are some good vehicles for exposure to the Indian economy. 

[tnp20]

It doesnt have to be either or. Both India and China will do well until China's demographics start being a major headwind. The losers will be Europe, Japan and US. China has such a huge lead in EV's ...the German and Japanese auto idustry is on the back foot as they havent pivotted fast enough from ICE. China's demographic issues are starting but the likely pinching impact is not likely to be felt for a decade or so.

 

From a demographics point of view India, Brazil and Indonesia have strong tail wind. China is in unique situation where they are starting to have demographic issues but other factor will carry it forward for at least the forseeable future.

 

I am invested in China but also excited about India. They have the India stack of technology, and massive self sustaining investment in infrastructure. They are liberalizing tax, business rules, divesting and reforming the legal system. The last part has just begun is likely a multi-decade affair. The government is exiting the areas it should not be (divestments, unnecessary labor laws) and finally stepping up in the areas it should act (infrastructure, legal system). India seems to be in a self sustaining cycle. I have not been back to india in many decades but from what I have seen and heard, the progress is remarkable and there is incredible optimism in the population and business leaders - they see an achievable goal to be a developed country by 2047. Lot of things are now positively reinforcing themselves and US see India more in its side than China which will give it additional benefit.

 

China is indeed at the mercy of Xi. This single point has hurt the stock holders over last few years, but I think its premature to rule out the chinese market at least for the next 5-10 years.

 

 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, tnp20 said:

It doesnt have to be either or. Both India and China will do well until China's demographics start being a major headwind. The losers will be Europe, Japan and US. China has such a huge lead in EV's ...the German and Japanese auto idustry is on the back foot as they havent pivotted fast enough from ICE. China's demographic issues are starting but the likely pinching impact is not likely to be felt for a decade or so.

 

From a demographics point of view India, Brazil and Indonesia have strong tail wind. China is in unique situation where they are starting to have demographic issues but other factor will carry it forward for at least the forseeable future.

 

I am invested in China but also excited about India. They have the India stack of technology, and massive self sustaining investment in infrastructure. They are liberalizing tax, business rules, divesting and reforming the legal system. The last part has just begun is likely a multi-decade affair. The government is exiting the areas it should not be (divestments, unnecessary labor laws) and finally stepping up in the areas it should act (infrastructure, legal system). India seems to be in a self sustaining cycle. I have not been back to india in many decades but from what I have seen and heard, the progress is remarkable and there is incredible optimism in the population and business leaders - they see an achievable goal to be a developed country by 2047. Lot of things are now positively reinforcing themselves and US see India more in its side than China which will give it additional benefit.

 

China is indeed at the mercy of Xi. This single point has hurt the stock holders over last few years, but I think its premature to rule out the chinese market at least for the next 5-10 years.

 

 

 

Well my perspective is more of "this is the capital I have available to invest what do I want to do with it?" I'm pretty stringent with positions and even though investors may do well in BABA or Tencent, I can't justify what I have being used towards that. At least not in the current market conditions where there is an abundance of opportunities with far less risk to worry about. That opinion could change though as the market changes. I'm not opposed to investing in China as a permanent stance. It's simply a lower tier on the priority list if that makes sense. 

[Spekulatius]

the problem with India is that there is no good vehicle to do so. Fairfax India is an lousy way to invest in India with high fees and the closed end structures which leaves the possibility of a creeping takeunder. The individual investor can't invest in individual securities there.

[shhughes1116]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:13 PM, shhughes1116 said:

 

For those of you that still follow this war closely, there have been some interesting actions recently, which lead me to believe the Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming soon, maybe late Spring.    

1. A handful of Russian mil-bloggers have been reporting Ukrainian attacks near Polohy.  From what is described, the Ukrainians are conducting reconnaissance in force.    

2. The most recent aid package from the United States contained fuel trucks designed to support heavy tanks and mechanized infantry in the field.

3.  Recent aid packages have included a lot of bridging and engineering equipment.    

4. Over the past few months, it looks like the Ukrainians have been reinforcing Bahkmut with Territorial Defense Forces and existing Brigrades (i.e. 80th, 92nd, 93rd).  Clearly things are tough in Bahkmut, but it doesn't look like they've been sending new units that have been recently trained by the West.  And I don't see any of the new vehicles they've been getting from the West (i.e. AMX-RC10s, Leopard 2s, Marder IFVs, Bradley IFVs). 

5.  Ukraine is forming 28,000 volunteers into Assault Brigades - that's about 10 brigades.   

 

By my estimation, Ukraine has another 5-6 undeployed brigades and support units trained by the West that have not been deployed yet.  Add in the Assault Brigades and you get a force of 15-16 Brigades.  The Challenger II and Leopard II tanks that they get this Spring, along with the Strykers, Bradleys, and Marders, will enable Ukraine to create from these brigades two armored brigades and a handful of mechanized brigades.  This is a pretty formidable force, especially with the Leopard IIs and Challenger IIs in the van. 

 

I continue to think the main thrust happens through Polohy, with subsequent thrusts to Berdyansk and Melitpol.  I think there will be a Dnipro River crossing - maybe a feint -  to keep Russian forces fixed along the river.  If the Russians remain fixed to the river, I'll bet we see a thunder run by the ex-French AMX-RC10s towards the Crimean Isthmus to prevent Russian forces from retreating into Crimea, which might cause a rout amongst the Russian forces that are currently along the Dnipro River.    

 

I think Ukraine gets one chance at a counter-offensive.  If this fails, I think they are pushed by the West to sue for peace.      

 

 

 

 

 

The package of arms announced today by the U.S. for Ukraine includes another 61 heavy fuel tankers.  The last package also included heavy fuel tankers, although I don't think they said how many.  Assuming we are giving the M969A1 - capacity of 5,000 gallons of fuel - 61 tankers is a field refueling capacity of ~300,000 gallons.

 

An armored brigade combat team - essentially the pointy end of a stick for a U.S Army Division - needs about 80,000 gallons of fuel to go 200 miles, and more if engaged in combat.  The 90 Abrams in the ABCT consume just over half the fuel, with the ~150 Bradleys, ~dozen Paladins, and ~50 M113s consuming the rest.  I believe the US just provided the field refueling capacity needed to support the Western tanks (Leopards, Challengers) and IFVs (CV90s, Bradleys, Marders, AMXRC-10s) and Strykers during the counter-offensive.  .  

 

Given the number of heavy fuel tankers and engineering vehicles that have been provided/committed over the last few months, along with the number of Western tanks and IFVs committed/delivered, I think we will see three separate corps-level units in the Ukrainian counter-offensive.    

 

My guess is still Polohy for the main thrust/breakthrough, with one corps heading towards the Mauripol-Vuhledar axis, another heading to Berdyansk, and another to Melitpol.