Political Posts

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

There are reports , from multiple sources, that Gazprom has started to shut gas supply to Germany and presumably other countries as well.  I haven't seen anything about it in MSM so I would say still not verified. It's big news if true.  Seems Putin may be willing to sanction himself. 

 

Was trying to triangulate it with other sources too, but first read about it here 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline

[Blugolds]

35 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

 

Was trying to triangulate it with other sources too, but first read about it here 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline

 

If thats true, sounds like a game of Chicken..."you're not breaking up with me, Im breaking up with you!"

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Nwoodmab, thanks for the link.  I saw it on a telegram channel and then zerohesge as well. It's a pro Russian account so take it with that in mind.  Could be us playing into psyops too. However often the stuff I see on this channel front runs reality so they have credibility in my mind. 

 

 SVEZHESTI: "Russian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe starts reverse

 

— Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and today the volumes began to flow in the opposite direction, according to network operator Gascade"

 

https://t.me/svezhesti/43717

 

[Pelagic]

I think we're going to see a dramatic shift in public opinion as the western world starts to see some of the photos coming out of Bucha and other cities northwest of Kyiv that have been recently liberated. Buying Russian gas, or any other concessions to Russia, is going to be a politically untenable position when there's significant evidence of Russian troops mass executing Ukrainian civilians who had their hands bound.

 

Civilian deaths that up to this point might have been rationalized as collateral damage are now very clearly murder. I'd be surprised if there isn't also strong public support for military intervention. 

[shhughes1116]

8 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

I think we're going to see a dramatic shift in public opinion as the western world starts to see some of the photos coming out of Bucha and other cities northwest of Kyiv that have been recently liberated. Buying Russian gas, or any other concessions to Russia, is going to be a politically untenable position when there's significant evidence of Russian troops mass executing Ukrainian civilians who had their hands bound.

 

Civilian deaths that up to this point might have been rationalized as collateral damage are now very clearly murder. I'd be surprised if there isn't also strong public support for military intervention. 

There won’t be direct military intervention by NATO countries.    
 

You are already seeing the effects of those pictures.  US is mobilizing former eastern bloc equipment - upgraded T72s and BMPs - for delivery to Ukraine.  Ukraine asked for 100 tanks and 400 APVs.  Looks like they are going to get that.  That’s the mobile units they’ll need to push East.  
 

The MANPADS plus AFVs and drones will make the Ukrainian mobile units tough to beat.  Mix in some real-time NATO ISR plus fresh Ukrainian infantry, and I think the Ujrianians have better than 50-50 odds of booting the orcs from the eastern portion of Ukraine.  

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Nwoodmab, thanks for the link.  I saw it on a telegram channel and then zerohesge as well. It's a pro Russian account so take it with that in mind.  Could be us playing into psyops too. However often the stuff I see on this channel front runs reality so they have credibility in my mind. 

 

 SVEZHESTI: "Russian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe starts reverse

 

— Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and today the volumes began to flow in the opposite direction, according to network operator Gascade"

 

https://t.me/svezhesti/43717

 

Little bit of a backdrop here:

 

Ukraine doesn't buy Russian gas from Russia. They are buying it from Poland and Slovakia. Still Russian gas though. The pipeline in question - Yamal - is the primary feeder that ultimately goes back to Ukraine. This pipeline has been shutting down since 3/8. Russia claimed technical difficulties. The remaining pipelines into Europe are doing just fine. For now.

[Spekulatius]

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now  to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. 
 

My guess is the genocidal nature of the Russian invasion will make it much easier to get heavier weapons like Airplanes etc to Ukraine.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Spekulatius

[lnofeisone]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now, to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. 

Latvia has a storage facility that has 2 years worth of gas for just Latvia (and around 1 year worth of gas for all of the baltic states). As long as they can secure regular shipments of LNG, they will be OK. There is also a bi-directional pipeline between Poland and Latvia (GIPL) so they can always get Polish (Russian) gas in the event of a disruption. But to put it in perspective, 3 Baltic states combined consume 15 BCM per year. Europe's total consumption is 400 BCM. 

 

As of today, there is very little spare capacity at regassification facilities are operating near their limits. Germany has none and the earliest estimate is 2024. GLNG is a way to play this shortage. EQNR will continue to be a winner here. 

[no_free_lunch]

11 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Little bit of a backdrop here:

 

Ukraine doesn't buy Russian gas from Russia. They are buying it from Poland and Slovakia. Still Russian gas though. The pipeline in question - Yamal - is the primary feeder that ultimately goes back to Ukraine. This pipeline has been shutting down since 3/8. Russia claimed technical difficulties. The remaining pipelines into Europe are doing just fine. For now.

Thanks, I appreciate the clarification.

 

Since you are in the loop I wonder how much of the NG is for heat vs electricity generation. Can Germany offset this by restarting their nuclear plants?

[Spekulatius]

36 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Thanks, I appreciate the clarification.

 

Since you are in the loop I wonder how much of the NG is for heat vs electricity generation. Can Germany offset this by restarting their nuclear plants?

NG is approximately used for 1/3 of the power generation in Germany. The largest chunk is used for heating and then industrial (especially chemical industry).

Nuclear power alone can’t really make up for the Russian gas. Besides, restarting decommissioned nuclear plants isn’t exactly straightforward either. I guess they can continue to run the few existing g plants longer, but that’s only about 10% of the total generation.

[SharperDingaan]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now  to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. 
 

My guess is the genocidal nature of the Russian invasion will make it much easier to get heavier weapons like Airplanes etc to Ukraine.

 

The weapons don't have to be heavier.

The Belgorod strike was a proof of concept, lots of fire/smoke but relatively little damage.

Were Ukraine serious, it would have also used drones dropping mines; both magnetic and AP - adding choppers just stirs the pot and drive up the loss. Today it was a refinery, tomorrow its your tank park? 

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-news-chernobyl-belgorod-oil-depot-attack/

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0654.pdf

 

SD

[Xerxes]

 

[no_free_lunch]

Thanks spek. It's a tough situation , I feel for Germany as this can affect them as much as Russia. Kind of a game of chicken feels like.  Still I feel Germany can do more and perhaps they will.  Even anything will help, it doesn't have to be quitting cold turkey. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-must-pay-war-crimes-bucha-germany-says-2022-04-03/

Edited April 3, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Thanks spek. It's a tough situation , I feel for Germany as this can affect them as much as Russia. Kind of a game of chicken feels like.  Still I feel Germany can do .ire and perhaps they will.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-must-pay-war-crimes-bucha-germany-says-2022-04-03/

I have seen the news but don’t see the NG ban happening. It’s just asking for too much too quickly. Longer term, the absence of relatively cheap NG will have a lasting impact on some industries, especially, the basic chemical industry like BASF, which needs cheap NG and power for competitiveness.

 

The German defense minister Lambrecht should ask herself what she can do to help out Ukraine. Ukraine has asked for some weapon that Germany should be able to supply, but so far the aid has been limited l unlike the UK for example, which has provided extensive help.

 

If we want to help the Ukraine to win their territory back, we need to supply them with weapons that are not just defensive, but allow them to gain more control over the air (advanced air defense systems), perhaps cruise missiles to deter ships and the launch pads of the russian cruise missiles and the airplanes they have been asking for.

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

NG is approximately used for 1/3 of the power generation in Germany. The largest chunk is used for heating and then industrial (especially chemical industry).

Nuclear power alone can’t really make up for the Russian gas. Besides, restarting decommissioned nuclear plants isn’t exactly straightforward either. I guess they can continue to run the few existing g plants longer, but that’s only about 10% of the total generation.

This. Also, baltics are a large electricity and oil importers (from Russia). It will be a while before Europe can really wean itself off Russian energy. 

[Xerxes]

 

[Stuart D]

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-power-hungry-podcast/id1519850086?i=1000553518465
 

Great overview of the Russia/Europe gas situation.

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

This. Also, baltics are a large electricity and oil importers (from Russia). It will be a while before Europe can really wean itself off Russian energy. 

Sanctions are not about feeling good or moral high ground. They need to be designed to hurt on the receiving end, and not undermine the own economy, which would be very detrimental for Europe.

 

For example, German defense minister Lambrecht asked for a boycott on Oil, NG and coal deliveries. Worrying about energy supplies isn't her job however. Instead she should ask herself what she can do within the defense department she is leading to help out Ukraine. Based on what I am hearing and reading, she has some work do do. if anything, this bucha massacre should make getting weapons to ukraine easier.

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

 

The link and excerpts are a transcription from RIA Novosti a Russia news agency.  I'm curious if any Russian speakers can validate the original article.

 

 

The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people.

 

Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation. 

 

Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt. 

 

The liberated and denazified territory of the Ukrainian state should no longer be called Ukraine. Denazification should last at least one generation - 25 years. Then the author goes on to detail exactly what needs to be done

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1510908227202002947

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

The link and excerpts are a transcription from RIA Novosti a Russia news agency.  I'm curious if any Russian speakers can validate the original article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1510908227202002947

 

Validated. The twitter translation is on point as well. 

 

Few thing to note about the article - it's an OpEd. The author - Timofei Sergeytsev - is a blend of a Tucker Carlson and a political consultant (that lead political campaigns for Russian politicians). He is a known Russian nationalist who sees everything as Russophobia and an ardent anti-Ukrainian. He  wrote a movie - which has a feel of a pro-Russian propaganda - called "Match" that depicted Ukrainians in a particularly terrible light (making them out to be responsible for Baby Yar, etc.).

[Blugolds]

Can someone help me understand the significance of labeling Putin a war criminal and the activities war crimes or crimes against humanity? 

 

How does that change things? The reluctance/caution by some to label Putin or behavior as such? I dont get it. I dont think Putin cares what anybody calls him. And as far as I understand the world is doing what it can with sanctions etc already...you cant remove them from SWIFT banking any more than you already have, other means of trade etc. What more could be done due to the new classification? China will still trade with Russia etc the countries that are still supporting or not condemning Russian aggression will continue to do so regardless of the label. 

 

Say he is labeled as such and ordered to report to the international courts for trial...do you think he would actually go? The man has everything he could ever want inside his own boarders...and the population has their hands tied, and evidently many support him, so do you think it will really make a difference to change anything? 

 

I just dont see much changing regardless of the label, yet see it plastered all over media (both sides) from various countries...regardless of what you call it, the acts are there for everyone to see, the terminology IMO is inconsequential. 

[lnofeisone]

41 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

Can someone help me understand the significance of labeling Putin a war criminal and the activities war crimes or crimes against humanity? 

 

How does that change things? The reluctance/caution by some to label Putin or behavior as such? I dont get it. I dont think Putin cares what anybody calls him.

Lots of layers on this onion. If he is charged as a war criminal, there will be an arrest warrant for him and Putin would need to be brought to Hague as ICC doesn't try in abstentia. 

Why do it:  It removes his next step if he were to lose or give up his power. His choice of where to go into exile (or even travel) will diminish substantially. This is tricky as it incentivizes Putin to stay in power.

 

Why avoid it:

1) Arresting the leader of a nuclear power is unpredictable and can get violent. Is the world ready for that?

2) Not everyone tried by the ICC was found guilty. Imagine the signal to the world should he be found not guilty.

 

Neither Russia nor Ukraine are members of the ICC. Ukraine will probably consent to ICC's jurisdiction but Russia doesn't have to recognize ICC tribunal or cooperate (which they won't as long as Putin is in power). Long way of saying, this will be long and messy and results are far from guaranteed. 

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Lots of layers on this onion. If he is charged as a war criminal, there will be an arrest warrant for him and Putin would need to be brought to Hague as ICC doesn't try in abstentia. 

Why do it:  It removes his next step if he were to lose or give up his power. His choice of where to go into exile (or even travel) will diminish substantially. This is tricky as it incentivizes Putin to stay in power.

 

Why avoid it:

1) Arresting the leader of a nuclear power is unpredictable and can get violent. Is the world ready for that?

2) Not everyone tried by the ICC was found guilty. Imagine the signal to the world should he be found not guilty.

 

Neither Russia nor Ukraine are members of the ICC. Ukraine will probably consent to ICC's jurisdiction but Russia doesn't have to recognize ICC tribunal or cooperate (which they won't as long as Putin is in power). Long way of saying, this will be long and messy and results are far from guaranteed. 

This also sent a signal to those that work with him and are involved in the war crimes as well. We do not know the exact inner workings, but each crime has more than person involved.  I think starting this is the right thing to do, but there are going to be way more people implicated than just Putin.

 

As for the War crimes Bucha, one should keep in mind that this is probably not just Putin's work. To me, it looks very much like the army of 2022 looks like the Russian army of WW2. The Russian army of WW2 did their fair share of raping, plundering and and random killing of civilians back then (my maternal family was on the receiving end of it in Berlin 1945). Probably more understandable given the circumstances back then, but again remember the army was told they are going on a de-nazification campaign in Ukraine.

 

So what we are seeing here is a pattern of the Russian army that precedes Putin.

[Spekulatius]

I like the (almost daily)  reports from Michael Clark) on Sky news. Very concise and clear:

Russia is going to move their focus to the South East and try a breakthrough. I think before this either succeeds or fails, all negotiations are moot, nothing will happen.

[no_free_lunch]

On the war crimes trials , I tend to agree that it's pointless and perhaps worse than that. It seems it gives a false sense of control to the west and a false sense of action.  To reiterate there is no ability to try Putin and company so let's not play games.  This does not count as doing anything against Russia or for the victims in Bucha and elsewhere.  I would rather government focus on helping Ukraine militarily and via sanctions.

Edited April 5, 2022 by no_free_lunch