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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The answers to most issues/problems are out there. The truth isnt hard to see if you want to. You just have to find it. There will always be differing nonsense available to feed ones biases, the internet in general and MSM assure this. Same as all the question marks with China, the Fed, Russiagate 2017, etc. There were people who hoarded cash and gold through the most glorious decade in investing history because they had sources they got duped into believing were credible feeding them what they wanted to hear for the entirety of it. They insisted on relying on those sources either out of fear or out of pride; but bottom line is they could have realized their thesis was shit when it didnt work for the first few years but they chose to stick with it rather than change course and start making money.

 

Nonetheless you know you are getting taken for a ride when things just never quite seem to work out the way they're advertised. And its why people so often end up selling when they should be buying or buying when they should be selling. In a certain way, everything is kinda rigged. 


I tell my kids that if something is not going right in their world - and they want to fix it - that they should start by looking in the mirror. No bitching and complaining. And especially no victim think. If you want a great life… make it happen. Not that complicated. And investing is the same. 

 

Edited by Viking
Posted (edited)

One of many, many examples of badly Putin has miscalculated with the invasion of Ukraine.

—————

Finland makes massive shift towards NATO, majority now support joining

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/finland-shows-strong-support-for-nato-poll

 

Results from Autumn 2021 found only 26% of the population supported joining NATO, but following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that number has leapt to 60% support for NATO membership. The same percentage of Finns support taking a decision this year on the matter.
 

Historic support for joining NATO has remained low, with the previous peak in Autumn 1998 showing just 28% support. 
 

The study clearly cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as responsible for the shift in opinion. 

 

"The change is beyond comparison, both in terms of size and speed," EVA noted. The survey sampled over 2,000 responses from across a range of ages 18 to 79. 

 

"The change in attitudes observed in the survey is a result of the Finns’ reaction to the change in their security environment, which seems to have left the old security policy philosophy, which had dominated in Finland for many years, without a foundation.

 

The study said that Russia has shown it "does not respect its neighbor’s sovereignty" and made real the "terrible nature of a defensive war fought on a country’s own territory." 
 

Finland and Russia share a particularly hostile history, most notably culminating in the Winter War of 1939 during which the Soviet Union attempted to invade Finland at the start of World War II. 
 

The Soviet Union suffered devastating losses estimated between 126,000 and 168,000 troops dead or missing. Finland lost just shy of 26,000 troops. The Soviet Union cited security concerns and demanded borderland territory from Finland, even establishing a puppet Finnish Communist government known as the Finnish Democratic Republic, which the Soviets used as justification to invade Finland. 

Edited by Viking
Posted
2 hours ago, Viking said:

One of many, many examples of badly Putin has miscalculated with the invasion of Ukraine.

—————

Finland makes massive shift towards NATO, majority now support joining

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/finland-shows-strong-support-for-nato-poll

 

Results from Autumn 2021 found only 26% of the population supported joining NATO, but following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that number has leapt to 60% support for NATO membership. The same percentage of Finns support taking a decision this year on the matter.
 

Historic support for joining NATO has remained low, with the previous peak in Autumn 1998 showing just 28% support. 
 

The study clearly cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as responsible for the shift in opinion. 

 

"The change is beyond comparison, both in terms of size and speed," EVA noted. The survey sampled over 2,000 responses from across a range of ages 18 to 79. 

 

"The change in attitudes observed in the survey is a result of the Finns’ reaction to the change in their security environment, which seems to have left the old security policy philosophy, which had dominated in Finland for many years, without a foundation.

 

The study said that Russia has shown it "does not respect its neighbor’s sovereignty" and made real the "terrible nature of a defensive war fought on a country’s own territory." 
 

Finland and Russia share a particularly hostile history, most notably culminating in the Winter War of 1939 during which the Soviet Union attempted to invade Finland at the start of World War II. 
 

The Soviet Union suffered devastating losses estimated between 126,000 and 168,000 troops dead or missing. Finland lost just shy of 26,000 troops. The Soviet Union cited security concerns and demanded borderland territory from Finland, even establishing a puppet Finnish Communist government known as the Finnish Democratic Republic, which the Soviets used as justification to invade Finland. 

 

The old Soviets got a lesson in SISU!

Posted (edited)

Russian sources are claiming they delivered an ultimatum to the Mariupol defenders. Surrender today but after that point it is no quarter. Russian sources not Ukrainian, so I will take them at their word.

 

Also reports of tribunals being created for war crimes and nazi behavior. Whatever that means, I don't want to know but it sounds like the beginning of mass murder.

 

Just the tip of the iceberg but those pushing theories of surrender are missing the plot. As though this is a simple change of power.  They really have no choice but to keep fighting because so many will be killed if they give up their weapons.  Better to die on their own terms. Even if the odds are low, at least there is some chance. 

 

 

Edited by no_free_lunch
Posted

I am not sure I understand this comment about “those pushing theories” or whatever that suppose to mean.
 

People in Mariupol got to do what’a right for them. No one knows that better than themselves. Not even Zelensky and certainly not people who are “pushing theories” behind the safe keyboards.  

when we are talking (at least me) i am talking is at Zelenski level. And this is not a theory nor a movie. His decisions will change the course of history.  
 

I bet he didnt know that 12 months ago, back in spring of 2021, the immense weight that he would be carry on his shoulders. 


Are we really surprised about the kangaroo tribunal being set up, given that Biden had said Putin is war criminal. There is always tit for tat, and this is not a theory. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Russian sources are claiming they delivered an ultimatum to the Mariupol defenders. Surrender today but after that point it is no quarter. Russian sources not Ukrainian, so I will take them at their word.

 

Also reports of tribunals being created for war crimes and nazi behavior. Whatever that means, I don't want to know but it sounds like the beginning of mass murder.

 

Just the tip of the iceberg but those pushing theories of surrender are missing the plot. As though this is a simple change of power.  They really have no choice but to keep fighting because so many will be killed if they give up their weapons.  Better to die on their own terms. Even if the odds are low, at least there is some chance. 

 

It is not a fluke that Serbia is Russia's one supporter in Eastern Europe today. The Ukraine civilian population is in deep shit in Mariupol. Check out what Serbia did during the Yugoslav wars...

 

I wonder if Ferguson back then would have counseled Albanians, Croats and Bosniaks to lay down their arms and given up (the whole 'war is worse than the alternative' thing)?

----------

War Crimes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_in_the_Yugoslav_Wars

Numerous war crimes were committed by Serbian military and Serbian paramilitary forces during the Yugoslav Wars. The crimes included massacres, ethnic cleansing, systematic rape, crimes against humanity and genocide. The International Court of Justice, cleared the Republic of Serbia of direct involvement in genocide, but found that it had failed to prevent mass killings, rapes, and ethnic cleansing.[39]

 

The war crimes were usually carried out on ethnic and religious grounds and were primarily directed against civilians (Albanians, Croats, Bosniaks). Several United Nations bodies have judged that the aim of these war crimes in various wars was to create an ethnically pure Serbian state, or "Greater Serbia", encompassing Serbia as well as the Serb-populated areas in former Yugoslavia.[10][15]

Edited by Viking
Posted
2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Crazy - a village destroyed a Russian armored column:

 


the security camera footage at the beginning of the clip showing the Russian tanks rolling in looks like something like the movie Seven Samurai, when the bandits walk in.
 

 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

It is not a fluke that Serbia is Russia's one supporter in Eastern Europe today. The Ukraine civilian population is in deep shit in Mariupol. Check out what Serbia did during the Yugoslav wars... I wonder if Ferguson back then would have counseled Albanians, Coats and Bosniaks to lay down their arms and given up (the whole 'war is worse than the alternative')?

----------

War Crimes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_in_the_Yugoslav_Wars

Numerous war crimes were committed by Serbian military and Serbian paramilitary forces during the Yugoslav Wars. The crimes included massacres, ethnic cleansing, systematic rape, crimes against humanity and genocide. The International Court of Justice, cleared the Republic of Serbia of direct involvement in genocide, but found that it had failed to prevent mass killings, rapes, and ethnic cleansing.[39]

 

The war crimes were usually carried out on ethnic and religious grounds and were primarily directed against civilians (Albanians, Croats, Bosniaks). Several United Nations bodies have judged that the aim of these war crimes in various wars was to create an ethnically pure Serbian state, or "Greater Serbia", encompassing Serbia as well as the Serb-populated areas in former Yugoslavia.[10][15]


Was General Lemay responsible for war crimes. If not why not ?

 

Was General Westmoreland responsible for war crimes. If not why not ?

 

There are no saints. 
 

I am for one glad that NATO stepped in and stopped Serbia. But guess what, 25 years is not today. And Serbia did not have nukes and Russia was not strong enough than to protect it. 

Posted (edited)

Mao is probably responsible for 30 million death give or take 5 million. Not mention keeping Pyongyang on a life line when his “volunteers” crossed the Yalu River sent back the Americans south of the 38th Parallel. PRC & US were in state of war for more than 20 years from the Korean War till mid-1970s:
 

Were Kissinger and Nixon wrong to go there and break bread with the mass murderer and formally recognize China and dump Taiwan. No. it made sense. The stakes were MUCH higher, than what happened 20 years ago. 

Edited by Xerxes
Posted
20 hours ago, Lazarus said:

Putin set out his demands to end the war on multiple occasions. Most recently, he set out his demands in a phone call with the leader of Turkey (who passed on the message). Putin is asking for (1) no NATO in Ukraine,  Ukraine stays neutral; (2) recognize Crimea as Russia, plus various other smaller demands (get rid of "nazis", some demands for Donask or wherever, and some other stuff).

 

The big demands relate to NATO and Crimea, and Zelensky has already acquiesced to giving up on NATO and Crimea is already a done deal. So they will haggle over the minor stuff and make concessions so that they can both save face and claim victory. This conflict is almost over. 

I think what you are omitting is that Putin also asks for Complete "de-militarization" of the Ukraine. If you think this through, it means unconditional surrender. This was essentially Plan A if it had worked. The Ukraine would be out of their mind to agree to this.

 

"De-Nazifaction" is another one. Look up what this means for the Russians.

Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Xerxes said:


the security camera footage at the beginning of the clip showing the Russian tanks rolling in looks like something like the movie Seven Samurai, when the bandits walk in.
 

 

If this isn't Hollywood movie material, I don't know what is.

 

On another note, this may have been a strategically important battle. The footage is from 3-2-2022 when the Russian were moving forward and we know that one vector was going northwest from Kherson and around Mykailov to split Ukraine into two and get towards Odessa. This was I think the furthest  the Russians ever got and it was quite important that the Russians were stopped there and had to retreat. Maybe this village "saved" the Ukraine? Sounds crazy.

 

I also wonder how they learned to shoot the Stingers. I think the mayor may have military experience.

 

image.thumb.png.948451a3498f7bcf6119e00642153c15.png

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted

Often it is the aggregate of small things that changes the course of the war. The battle at the airport in the early days of the war (already been a month!) was probably instrumental as well as Zelensky’s initial appearance. It ceased to be “special operation” for average Russian troops and general staff the moment that initial onslaught failed. 
 

it is clear that the Russian army does not want to fight this war *cough* special operation.
 

There is funeral of a Russian read-admiral (I think) on YouTube. He was born in Ukraine and died fighting for Kremlin. You can imagine how conflicted everyone is. Shooting brothers and sisters. 
 

Russian killed 20,000 people during the siege of Grozny. No one bat an eye.

Posted
15 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Often it is the aggregate of small things that changes the course of the war. The battle at the airport in the early days of the war (already been a month!) was probably instrumental as well as Zelensky’s initial appearance. It ceased to be “special operation” for average Russian troops and general staff the moment that initial onslaught failed. 
 

it is clear that the Russian army does not want to fight this war *cough* special operation.
 

There is funeral of a Russian read-admiral (I think) on YouTube. He was born in Ukraine and died fighting for Kremlin. You can imagine how conflicted everyone is. Shooting brothers and sisters. 
 

Russian killed 20,000 people during the siege of Grozny. No one bat an eye.

Absolutely.  In the video by the way, all the interviews are in Russian, not Ukranian!   And yes, I love Kurosawa, Rashomon is fantastic, albeit not in the samurai theme.

Posted
14 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I am not sure I understand this comment about “those pushing theories” or whatever that suppose to mean.
 

People in Mariupol got to do what’a right for them. No one knows that better than themselves. Not even Zelensky and certainly not people who are “pushing theories” behind the safe keyboards.  

when we are talking (at least me) i am talking is at Zelenski level. And this is not a theory nor a movie. His decisions will change the course of history.  
 

I bet he didnt know that 12 months ago, back in spring of 2021, the immense weight that he would be carry on his shoulders. 


Are we really surprised about the kangaroo tribunal being set up, given that Biden had said Putin is war criminal. There is always tit for tat, and this is not a theory. 

Oh im talking about these theories that the country is better off without weapons and Im pushing against anything that goes against them fighting.  Maybe we can give them just a little bit of respect and assume they know what's best for their country?  If they need weapons give them the weapons.

 

We armed Afghanistan against the Soviets back in the day and somehow they actually won that one.  The Americans failed in Vietnam despite huge efforts and that was at their peak.  Given the incompetence of the Russian army perhaps Ukraine can actually hold them off. However they are going to need more than manpads. Ultimately they will need to launch offensives.  More and more powerful weapons are needed. 

 

What we really need are new fronts against Russia.  Shutting down the gas flow to Europe would be one.  Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, now is the time.  Would be a good time for Sweden and Finland to join NATO too.  Russia is stretched right now, what are they going to do?   They have said themselves they only use nuclear when the homeland is attacked.

Posted

Biden says Western leaders discussed food shortages, which he says will be "real"

US President Joe Biden said leaders discussed the possibilities of food shortages triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Biden said food shortages will be "real," and he called Ukraine and Russia the "breadbasket" for Europe.

Supplies from the two countries together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade.

"The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It's imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well," Biden said in remarks after an emergency NATO meeting in Brussels.

"We had a long discussion in the G7 with ... both the United States, which has a significant — the third largest producer of wheat in the world — as well as Canada, which is also a major, major producer. And we both talked about how we could increase and disseminate more rapidly food ... In addition to that, we talked about urging all the European countries and everyone else to end trade restrictions on sending, limitations on sending food abroad. So we are in the process of working out with our European friends what it would be, what it would take to help alleviate the concerns relative to food shortages," he said.

Biden also mentioned a "significant" US investment model for humanitarian assistance, which would include food.

Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out the details of a proposed EU-led food security initiative designed to alleviate the risk of food shortages caused by the war.

This situation will create a food crisis, extremely serious humanitarian situations in several countries and are sure to have massive political consequences in several countries,” Macron said at a news conference in Brussels on Thursday.

According to a document circulated by the Elysée, Russia is the top exporter of wheat worldwide (33 million tons in 2021) with Ukraine not far behind (fourth largest exporter, with 20 million tons in 2021).

The document estimates 27 mostly African and Middle Eastern countries source over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine.

The three-pronged initiative spelled out in the document would rely on measures, such as making crisis stockpiles of grain available to “avoid any shortages and keep prices down,” raising production thresholds, and stepping up investments in sustainable agriculture in the most-affected countries.

 

 

The "breadbasket" has been mentioned before...people will stomach higher prices at the pump...but if food increases even more, similar to construction materials (2-3x) and people will REALLY feel it. Never in my lifetime have I gone to the grocery store and literally seen 80% of store shelves empty, but it happened during COVID, possible that we see that again? 

Posted
38 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

Biden says Western leaders discussed food shortages, which he says will be "real"

US President Joe Biden said leaders discussed the possibilities of food shortages triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Biden said food shortages will be "real," and he called Ukraine and Russia the "breadbasket" for Europe.

Supplies from the two countries together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade.

"The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It's imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well," Biden said in remarks after an emergency NATO meeting in Brussels.

"We had a long discussion in the G7 with ... both the United States, which has a significant — the third largest producer of wheat in the world — as well as Canada, which is also a major, major producer. And we both talked about how we could increase and disseminate more rapidly food ... In addition to that, we talked about urging all the European countries and everyone else to end trade restrictions on sending, limitations on sending food abroad. So we are in the process of working out with our European friends what it would be, what it would take to help alleviate the concerns relative to food shortages," he said.

Biden also mentioned a "significant" US investment model for humanitarian assistance, which would include food.

Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out the details of a proposed EU-led food security initiative designed to alleviate the risk of food shortages caused by the war.

This situation will create a food crisis, extremely serious humanitarian situations in several countries and are sure to have massive political consequences in several countries,” Macron said at a news conference in Brussels on Thursday.

According to a document circulated by the Elysée, Russia is the top exporter of wheat worldwide (33 million tons in 2021) with Ukraine not far behind (fourth largest exporter, with 20 million tons in 2021).

The document estimates 27 mostly African and Middle Eastern countries source over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine.

The three-pronged initiative spelled out in the document would rely on measures, such as making crisis stockpiles of grain available to “avoid any shortages and keep prices down,” raising production thresholds, and stepping up investments in sustainable agriculture in the most-affected countries.

 

 

The "breadbasket" has been mentioned before...people will stomach higher prices at the pump...but if food increases even more, similar to construction materials (2-3x) and people will REALLY feel it. Never in my lifetime have I gone to the grocery store and literally seen 80% of store shelves empty, but it happened during COVID, possible that we see that again? 

The Russian production will not be lost but the Ukrainian will be partly (but not completely lost). So I don't think the food shortage will be as bad as it's made out.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh im talking about these theories that the country is better off without weapons and Im pushing against anything that goes against them fighting.  Maybe we can give them just a little bit of respect and assume they know what's best for their country?  If they need weapons give them the weapons.

 

We armed Afghanistan against the Soviets back in the day and somehow they actually won that one.  The Americans failed in Vietnam despite huge efforts and that was at their peak.  Given the incompetence of the Russian army perhaps Ukraine can actually hold them off. However they are going to need more than manpads. Ultimately they will need to launch offensives.  More and more powerful weapons are needed. 

 

What we really need are new fronts against Russia.  Shutting down the gas flow to Europe would be one.  Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, now is the time.  Would be a good time for Sweden and Finland to join NATO too.  Russia is stretched right now, what are they going to do?   They have said themselves they only use nuclear when the homeland is attacked.

I believe Finland is quite likely to join NATO. The former Finnish President has clearly stated that Putin threatened him when this topic was brought up a while ago, despite the fact that so far the Finns preferred neutrality. (there is a youtube interview). The Fins have a pretty long border with Russia and now have to consider these threats as real.

 

Sweden has no border with Russia and a long history of neutrality, so my guess is they are much less likely to Join. the only ruffles they had with the Russians were in the Baltic sea.

 

If Ukraine survives this war as an independent entity, Russia has achieved the exact opposite of what they wanted to achieve which was a puppet state as a buffer. They have made a mortal enemy with a capable army that works together with the NATO. Even if they are not part of NATO, they may join the EU (this has been set in motion already).

 

You know it's sort of easy to keep friendly neighbors if Russia wanted to. You just trade with them and keep friendly relationships, rather than create mortal enemies. Now they have done the latter and probably helped expand the NATO in the north as well, if Finland indeed joins.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted
43 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh im talking about these theories that the country is better off without weapons and Im pushing against anything that goes against them fighting.  Maybe we can give them just a little bit of respect and assume they know what's best for their country?  If they need weapons give them the weapons.

 

We armed Afghanistan against the Soviets back in the day and somehow they actually won that one.  The Americans failed in Vietnam despite huge efforts and that was at their peak.  Given the incompetence of the Russian army perhaps Ukraine can actually hold them off. However they are going to need more than manpads. Ultimately they will need to launch offensives.  More and more powerful weapons are needed. 

 

What we really need are new fronts against Russia.  Shutting down the gas flow to Europe would be one.  Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, now is the time.  Would be a good time for Sweden and Finland to join NATO too.  Russia is stretched right now, what are they going to do?   They have said themselves they only use nuclear when the homeland is attacked.


i don’t think anyone here has said they should lay down their arms or anyone here disrespected them. I think people in this thread need to stop thinking in binary terms. 
 

Right now both sides (Russian & Ukrainian) are just gathering as much bargaining chip as they can even as they exhaust themselves on the battlefield, so that they got the most bargaining chips when the talk restart. But at some points both sides need to give in. What they will give or not is up to them. For instance if Zelenski says no formal recognition of Crimea, well guess what war continues, even if Russia is depleted it will just not end. If there is no mechanism to safeguard Ukraine’ safety against the wolves than that won’t work for Ukraine either. I.e de-militarization is non-starter.  
 

as far as Afghanistan is concerned, we empowered ISI, funnelled into it Saudi money (along with Bin Laden) to wage their jihad along Stingers (which came down some years later). But I don’t recall U.S Air Force flying sorties against Soviet positions. 
 

if what you are saying is that World War 3 is worth having for Ukraine. Then the answer is no. I am sorry but it is not. Everything short of that vortex that will push our insane leaders to do insane things. I ll remind everyone that the Soviet almost went nuclear early 1980s because they mistook a NATO exercise for the real thing. Just because they themselves had simulated a real pre-emptive nuclear strike during an excerise. 

 

Nothing to do with Ukraine. Just like World War One was not worth having because Austria-Hungry decided to punish Serbia by an invasion. and of course WW2 is just a by-product of the first war. 
 

frankly this current war is doing more damage to Russia than the Soviet-Afghan did in 10 years. At least that was amortized. 

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I believe Finland is quite likely to join NATO. The former Finnish President has clearly stated that Putin threatened him when this topic was brought up a while ago, despite the fact that so far the Finns preferred neutrality. (there is a youtube interview). The Fins have a pretty long border with Russia and now have to consider these threats as real.

 

Sweden has no border with Russia and a long history of neutrality, so my guess is they are much less likely to Join. the only ruffles they had with the Russians were in the Baltic sea.

 

If Finland joins first, Sweden will kind of get the benefit of joining without really having to pay/join...Russia would have to go through a NATO country to invade on land otherwise they would have to come across the Baltic and that would be tough.

 

So if Finland joins, for all intents and purposes...Sweden is basically "protected" by NATO countries and could maintain their neutrality if they didnt want to make it official. 

 

If Im thinking about it correctly. 

 

I hope you're right about the food shortages

Edited by Blugolds11
Posted

@Xerxes I think there is little question that Russia is keeping the Crimean. It was an historical accident that it fell to Ukraine to being with, plus Putin controls it already.

I think Donesz and Luhansk is much less clear. Yes, people speak mostly Russian there, but that does not mean they like to be Russians. I believe  if there is a fair referendum, there is a strong likelyhood that they chose to remain in Ukraine.

Posted

How many people who are posting on this thread have actually lived in a country at war or one that has been invaded. Or served in the military ?


 

having an ice-cream in NYC while cheering for the invasion of Iraq or watching it unfold in 2003 doesn’t count “as living in a country at war”

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Xerxes I think there is little question that Russia is keeping the Crimean. It was an historical accident that it fell to Ukraine to being with, plus Putin controls it already.

I think Donesz and Luhansk is much less clear. Yes, people speak mostly Russian there, but that does not mean they like to be Russians. I believe  if there is a fair referendum, there is a strong likelyhood that they chose to remain in Ukraine.


fully agree. 
 

Donesz were just pawns in Putin’ hybrid war. Even he didn’t want to annex them. But just to keep them forever in state of limbo. 

Edited by Xerxes

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