Indian Economy

[gfp]

Another RBI central bank intervention to prop up the Rupee from breaking down against the dollar overnight.  Lots of dollar strength in Asia.

[UK]

14 hours ago, gfp said:

Lots of dollar strength in Asia.

 

“The dollar is a beast again,”

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/dollar-rally-is-crushing-one-of-the-most-popular-trades-of-2023#xj4y7vzkg

 

Yet, I don't now how many times I have read in the 1H and at the start of the year how USD was supposed getting much weaker this year. It was very strong consensus.

[Xerxes]

 

 

Depending on how the diplomatic row evolves between Ottawa and Delhi, we will see if the discount was actually justified !!

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Xerxes

[SafetyinNumbers]

This seems like great news for India and Indian issuers. Passive capital will force active managers benchmarked to the index to also buy Indian bonds. Seems positive for the Rupee and credit spreads.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by SafetyinNumbers

[Viking]

Balanced summary of how messed up Canadian / Indian relationship is.
 

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-real-reasons-canadas-relationship-with-india-is-broken/#comments

[whatstheofficerproblem]

LOL.. Pierre literally turned a blind eye to a known terrorist even after Indian authorities warned him, the consequence of that was the 1985 Air India bombing. Terry Milewski was probably the only reporter who covered these 'Khalistan' forces, before the Canadians opened their eyes, they were already in bed with them. What is even more f'ed up is CNN and other media literally calling a known terrorist an activist. God save Canada, then again, I doubt he can do much at this point.

Edited September 22, 2023 by whatstheofficerproblem

[Xerxes]

Mujahedin Khalq is considered as a terrorist organization by the Iranian government. Now I don’t give a rat’ a&& to what Iranian government thinks and who they consider as Bad Guys, but I myself consider the Mujahedin Khalq as traitors to the nation, since they took arm when the country was its weakest point and actively fought against their homeland during the Iran-Iraq War. 
 

Yet, both John Bolton (whom I somewhat respect) and that Pompeiiyo (spell) were courting this gang of traitors and giving speeches on their behalf. Bolton collected i think $180,000 in total. Poor guy probably been invested in bonds in the past 10 years. 

 

Who said democracy is perfect. 
 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/02/iran-mek-cult-terrorist-trump-allies-john-bolton-rudy-giuliani

Edited September 22, 2023 by Xerxes

[rohitc99]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

Balanced summary of how messed up Canadian / Indian relationship is.
 

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-real-reasons-canadas-relationship-with-india-is-broken/#comments

well laid out. If an indian citizen, is agitating for something, atleast that has some reasoning behind it. If a non citizen supports a movement in some other country based on his faith, funds violence  and uses its domestic leverage, what do you call him ? we know what the US calls them

 

Its easy to see this through a western lens as this article is also, but you have to know the history of the past 50 years to understand the context. There have been regular bombings and shooting by islamic terrorist and ofcourse this. All the representation etc was of no use because India had no economic weight and could be ignored

 

Now some of these governments are being forced to face up to it because they cannot ignore it as the article says so

 

There is a lot of good will between the citizens of the two countries. Hope it doesn't go down the drain in the future

[StubbleJumper]

9 minutes ago, rohitc99 said:

If a non citizen supports a movement in some other country based on his faith, funds violence  and uses its domestic leverage, what do you call him ?

 

Irish American?

 

 

SJ

[sundin]

India has failed to identify any evidence that there was any funding toward violence by the Canadian killed. There are extradition processes in place that ought to be followed if India could prove that or had legitimate evidence. On the other hand there seems to be legitimate evidence that the national sovereignty of Canada was violated which is unacceptable. 

 

Modi has a history of suppressing minority voices, including being implicated in the genocide of Muslims which lead to the Western nations barring his entry. Even worse Indian media has shifted to accepting and justifying the fact they killed a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil - equating it to killing Bin Laden. 

 

I don't know where this goes but this is a key risk for any investment in India as its looking closer and closer to becoming a rogue state like its partner Russia. 

[ICUMD]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/hardeep-singh-nijjar-faked-marriage-to-get-canada-citizenship-in-1997-report-101695397465458-amp.html

 

Interesting character for Trudeau to support and risk trade relations. If the above was true, seems like he should have been deported back to India.

 

Still awaiting to hear the 'evidence'  India committed a crime on Canadian soil. Wonder why the delay?

 

 

[Spekulatius]

On 9/22/2023 at 4:28 PM, sundin said:

India has failed to identify any evidence that there was any funding toward violence by the Canadian killed. There are extradition processes in place that ought to be followed if India could prove that or had legitimate evidence. On the other hand there seems to be legitimate evidence that the national sovereignty of Canada was violated which is unacceptable. 

 

Modi has a history of suppressing minority voices, including being implicated in the genocide of Muslims which lead to the Western nations barring his entry. Even worse Indian media has shifted to accepting and justifying the fact they killed a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil - equating it to killing Bin Laden. 

 

I don't know where this goes but this is a key risk for any investment in India as its looking closer and closer to becoming a rogue state like its partner Russia. 

This is true, but Trudeau also did not produce evidence for his accusations, which is what makes this situations messed up.

 

I do agree on Modi, he has autocratic tendencies. Works great as a foreign investor if they leave you alone or even better they nurture you, but if they turn against you, you are looking at a zero.

 

Now Modi did get elected fairly, so one can only hope that checks and balances are intact in India.

[ICUMD]

Interestingly, Canada has in its history a heavy hand dealing with separatists during the FLQ crisis in the 1970s.  In fact, Pierre Trudeau himself invoked the war measures act to suspend civil liberties.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_de_libération_du_Québec#:~:text=It was considered a terrorist,people and injured many more.

 

Seems to me that even Western nations can also have autocratic tendencies from time to time.

 

On the other hand, that's what I expect from any good leader. Be it Pierre Trudeau or Modi - using autocracy selectively to maintain the unity and stability of a nation.  Broken nations are not peaceful ones, nor ones that are safe to invest in.

[Haryana]

 

[hardcorevalue]

do we have another Xi on our hands? Obviously not there yet but things are drifting in the wrong direction in terms of personal freedoms and democracy. 

 

Prem praising Modi at every turn but this guy is acting like a nationalist and increasingly authoritarian. 

"At least 46 people were questioned during the raids and their devices, including laptops and cellphones, and documents were taken away for examination.

 

India’s anti-terrorism law has stringent requirements for bail, which mean individuals often spend months, sometimes years, in custody without being found guilty. Successive Indian governments have invoked the law, but it has been used with increasing frequency in recent years.

 

Reporters Without Borders, an advocacy group for journalists, ranked India 161st in its press freedom rankings this year, writing that the situation has deteriorated from “problematic” to “very bad.”"

 

https://apnews.com/article/india-press-freedom-newsclick-arrest-raid-3faa0830e9f3bcd4e75f1b7df404f432

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

do we have another Xi on our hands? Obviously not there yet but things are drifting in the wrong direction in terms of personal freedoms and democracy. 

 

Prem praising Modi at every turn but this guy is acting like a nationalist and increasingly authoritarian. 

"At least 46 people were questioned during the raids and their devices, including laptops and cellphones, and documents were taken away for examination.

 

India’s anti-terrorism law has stringent requirements for bail, which mean individuals often spend months, sometimes years, in custody without being found guilty. Successive Indian governments have invoked the law, but it has been used with increasing frequency in recent years.

 

Reporters Without Borders, an advocacy group for journalists, ranked India 161st in its press freedom rankings this year, writing that the situation has deteriorated from “problematic” to “very bad.”"

 

https://apnews.com/article/india-press-freedom-newsclick-arrest-raid-3faa0830e9f3bcd4e75f1b7df404f432

 

 

India's press has become increasingly an extension of the government - Modi plays them like a fiddle. You can easily check this out watching WION etc on youtube. Lot's of disinformation going on with foreign politics topics.

[Xerxes]

On Ukraine-Russia war related topics, it is either Ukraine single handily destroying some many Russian assets or Russia amazingly competently doing it to the Ukrainians. (As per WION) 

 

both cannot be true at the same time 

[rajpgokul]

For whatever it's worth, I am sharing my views as someone who lives in Tier-2 India and invests globally, I believe that a lot of the inputs in this thread recently are so out of touch with reality. We may not like Modi's social policies, but to think that he is taking India in the direction of Russia or China is totally absurd. India has a democracy that is so deep rooted with enough checks and balances for many of you to fully appreciate. You just need to check the electoral track record of Modi's party in state elections (India has a very federal structure). To put it in perspective, even at the peak of his popularity now, Modi's party is not in power in almost all major cities - Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad. The only large city they control is Mumbai and even that is through 2 allies and the local civic body is with the opposition. A lot of the western media writing about India is similar to what media houses write about Trump. You can hate Trump or Boris Johnson, but to believe that, electing them is equivalent to US/ UK becoming Russia slowly is non-sense. The reason why Prem Watsa writes so positively about Modi (other than earning brownie points with the establishment) is because most reasonable Indians and close India watchers would know that he is taking the right decisions to grow the economy and build the base for the next 1-2 decades by investing in large scale infrastructure, running tight government budgets, reforming key policies, making India more capitalistic etc etc. I too genuinely believe Modi is transforming the country in the right direction even though I may not vote for him. People with skin in the game like domestic investors or westerns firms investing large sums in India understand the positive change that is happening in the country. Please do not take the Economist or FT editorials so seriously. 

[hardcorevalue]

Thanks Raj, how do you think the alleged modi government killing a canadian citizen will shake out? I don’t know enough on Nijjar but if true, then it’s pretty crazy that a country like Canada would be so cool with a foreign government murdering one of its own. Obviously, Trudea tried to get ahead of the story but when/if the evidence finally comes out, does Canada just pretend it didn’t happen? or will there be a back channel solution?

[rajpgokul]

Your guess on this issue is as good as mine. My personal opinion is that no one will even remember about this in the next 1-2 years. The long term trend of India becoming a very close ally of the Western countries in Asia is certain. India is certainly not China or Russia (people who equate them have zero understanding of how India operates) and would continue to be a great market for stock pickers. As investors, our focus should be to buy the right businesses at attractive valuations and spend as little time as possible on the irrelevant news cycles. 

[Haryana]

1 hour ago, rajpgokul said:

 

...

India is certainly not China or Russia (people who equate them have zero understanding of how India operates)

...

 

 

+1

 

[Hoodlum]

Now that the US is involved and have linked their assassination attempt to Canada's assassination, it will be interesting see how this plays out.  It looks like the US undercover officer who was acting as a hitman in the US received a video of the Canadian assassination the day after it took place.  This was the proof the Canadian government had on India.  The key will be connecting these people back to the Indian government.

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-us-investigation-into-alleged-plot-to-kill-sikh-activist-in-new-york/

 

Quote

A criminal indictment unsealed in New York Wednesday says a man accused of arranging the killing-for-hire of the U.S.-based Sikh activist told an undercover officer less than two weeks before Mr. Nijjar’s death that there was a “big target” in Canada. He is identified as Indian citizen Nikhil Gupta.

 

This court document, which alleges an Indian government employee was helping direct events, includes intercepted conversations talking of three such assassination plots in Canada to kill Sikh activists.

 

The indictment does not name the American target but the Washington Post quoted a senior Biden administration source as saying the target was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, general counsel for the New York-based Sikhs for Justice, a group that is campaigning for the creation of an independent Sikh state called Khalistan.

 

A few days before Mr. Nijjar’s death, Mr. Gupta told the undercover officer – whom he thought was a criminal – that “we will be needing one good team in Canada,” according to the indictment filed by U.S. prosecutors.

 

Mr. Gupta later told the undercover officer that Mr. Nijjar was “#4, #3″ among the targets in Canada and the United States. After Mr. Nijjar was killed, he sent the undercover officer a video clip that showed the body slumped in his vehicle and he said there was now no need to wait on killing Mr. Pannun.

 

Two days after Mr. Nijjar’s slaying, Mr. Gupta directed the undercover officer to move quickly on the American target and that by June 29 “we have to finish four jobs” – understood to mean four targets in total, including the U.S. one and “three in Canada.”

 

U.S. prosecutors allege he was working with an unidentified Indian government employee (referred to as CC-1 in the indictment) who was working with others in India to direct the plot.

 

The Justice Department said Wednesday that the Indian government employee agreed, in a deal brokered by Mr. Gupta, to pay $100,000 to a “purported hit man who was in fact an undercover U.S. law enforcement officer.”

 

On June 19, one day after Mr. Nijjar was slain, Mr. Gupta told the police officer, whom he thought was a hit man, to proceed with the New York killing, saying that both Sikhs were on the same list of targets, U.S. prosecutors said.

 

Mr. Gupta also told the purported hit man to expect the victim – identified by the White House as Mr. Pannun – to be more careful in the wake of the slaying of Mr. Nijjar. “He will be more cautious, because in Canada, his colleague is down. His colleague is down. I sent you the video. So he will be more cautious, so we should not give them the chance, any chance,” Mr. Gupta said, according to U.S. prosecutors.

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Hoodlum

[Haryana]

 

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/leads-soon-on-india-consulate-attack-fbi-chief-christopher-wray-told-delhi-sources-4662505 

[

Visiting Federal Bureau of Investigation or FBI Director Christopher Wray has assured India that the US is probing attack on the Indian Consulate in San Francisco "aggressively" and would be able to share "credible" leads soon, sources said. Mr Wray met National Investigation Agency Director Dinkar Gupta on second day of his visit on Tuesday.

In March, a group of Khalistan supporters attacked and damaged the Indian Consulate. It was again attacked in July. The NIA team had visited San Francisco in August and returned with some leads.

The meeting between the investigating agency chiefs comes on the heels of Washington's allegations about an Indian link to a foiled plot to kill Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil.

]

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-12/india-requests-fbi-to-share-intel-on-sikh-separatists-source

[

The issue of what New Delhi says are Sikh separatists operating against India from U.S. soil was discussed in "greater detail by a team of internal security officials from both countries", the official said.

"India has requested the U.S. officials to share inputs on suspected individuals who have in recent years been recruited and embedded in the separatist movement," the official said.

The NIA said in a statement on Tuesday that Wray met NIA Director General Dinkar Gupta and held discussions on issues including "the acts and activities of Terrorist-Organised Criminal Networks, ongoing investigations in the US in the attack on the Indian consulate in San Francisco, investigations of cyber-terror and cyber-crimes of various kinds."

]

[sundin]

False Flag Ops ^

 

“India’s claim that its high commission in Ottawa was targeted with grenades is patently false. That’s a lie that belongs solely to the government of India and needs to be publicly challenged and exposed.”

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-indian-government-complained-to-ottawa-about-safety-of-diplomatic/

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Different reactions to the US vs Canada 

 

"Two senior Research and Analysis Wing officers were asked to leave their stations in major Western cities earlier this summer,  ahead of a decision by United States prosecutors to initiate criminal charges in the wake of the spy agency’s alleged role in an assassination campaign targeting pro-Khalistan activists, intelligence sources have told ThePrint. 

RAW was also blocked from replacing its station head in Washington, DC, it is learnt."

 

 

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/top-officers-expelled-after-nijjar-killing-raw-downs-shutters-in-north-america-for-1st-time/1866238/

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India interfered in conservative leadership campaign. 

 

https://www.rebelnews.com/indian_government_agents_foreign_interference_conservative_party_canada

https://www.thebureau.news/p/indian-proxies-funding-canadian-politicians

[Haryana]

 

Canadian veteran journalist Terry Milewski has a full book on this issue.

 

https://archive.org/details/blood-for-blood_202107/page/n3/mode/2up 

 

He joins Punit Sahani in this insightful exposure how "Khalistanis Lie Shamelessly".

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Haryana
shorter video