sundin

False Flag Ops ^ “India’s claim that its high commission in Ottawa was targeted with grenades is patently false. That’s a lie that belongs solely to the government of India and needs to be publicly challenged and exposed.” https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-indian-government-complained-to-ottawa-about-safety-of-diplomatic/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Different reactions to the US vs Canada "Two senior Research and Analysis Wing officers were asked to leave their stations in major Western cities earlier this summer, ahead of a decision by United States prosecutors to initiate criminal charges in the wake of the spy agency’s alleged role in an assassination campaign targeting pro-Khalistan activists, intelligence sources have told ThePrint. RAW was also blocked from replacing its station head in Washington, DC, it is learnt." https://theprint.in/diplomacy/top-officers-expelled-after-nijjar-killing-raw-downs-shutters-in-north-america-for-1st-time/1866238/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- India interfered in conservative leadership campaign. https://www.rebelnews.com/indian_government_agents_foreign_interference_conservative_party_canada https://www.thebureau.news/p/indian-proxies-funding-canadian-politicians

If its just talking about Balkanization, why should western countries care? India seceded from the British benefiting from talks about balkanization in California and BC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghadar_Movement) Similarly, we talk about CCP and its respective issues with HK and Taiwan from a Western perspective and a One China policy. As far as India, I believe there has been a regime change in the last decade for the worse. India is a federate of states that can't have division along the lines of caste/language/region/religion to remain strong and unified. It's like a continent of different cultures, as if Africa were to be one country - practically needs unity to survive. The Modi govt doesn;t have best record here. Some good takes below: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/world/canada/modi-canada-hindu-nationalism.html?smid=url-share https://x.com/FareedZakaria/status/1708550119094648858?s=20

Espousing views is the crux of the issue here. Last I checked, India irrespective of party and affiliation regards Udham Singh - the murderer of British governor Michael O'Dwyer as a national hero. Quite contrary to Gandhi school of thought. Majority of Sikhs AND BJP insiders including Modi denounce Indira Gandhi for the same reasons, acting like the parade is an affront is just politics and a shift of focus. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/modis-attack-on-akal-takht-remark-shift-from-centres-line/articleshow/102666485.cms?from=mdr Murdering a Canadian on Canadian soil which is unacceptable for maintenance of any global order.

^Quite the reach to get that quotation from Kash that Indian media has used. The anchor brought up 'Khalistan' many times and the one time he uses the word is what goes viral. lol The full byte talks about the issue being prevalent in general society and many groups being complicit. Indian media has shifted from shitting on Trudeau/Canada to now trying to find anything to justify the murder and perception of Nijjar - A lot of which is just tangents/hearsay. Makes me think not much is there. ----------------------------------------------------------- On the 2016 Interpol citation Nijar was investigated by the RCMP and CSIS and in following wrote to the government - “Because of my campaign for Sikh rights, it’s my belief that I have become a target of an Indian government campaign to label my human rights campaign as terrorist activities,” the letter written by Nijjar to Trudeau said. https://nationalpost.com/news/hardeep-singh-nijjar-letter-to-trudeau "India ‘weaponizing global anti-terror fund’ to target NGOs, says Amnesty" The Indian government has exploited the assessment reports of a global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog to target “legitimate human rights work of civil society”, a new report by Amnesty International said. ...This has been done under the “guise of combating terrorism”, Amnesty International’s India chair Aakar Patel said. https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-fatf-amnesty-terrorism-funding-latest-report-b2419340.html Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party and its Hindu nationalist allies have perfected using social media to spread inflammatory, often false and bigoted material on an industrial scale, earning both envy and condemnation beyond India’s borders. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/26/hindu-nationalist-social-media-hate-campaign/

Is diplomacy really sliding extrajudicial murder under the rug and dealing with it privately? It has to be considered here that the fall out would be the same irrespective of the political party. Canadian intelligence along with the FBI had to publicly share this information with ongoing threats of Indian death squads hired to kill its citizens. There's a grand amount of disinformation out there by the Indian state media including "Cocaine being found on Trudeau's plane" along with Nijjar's alleged history. All these are designed to shift the focus away from an extrajudicial killing of a Canadian citizen and to justify murder which is what the Indian media is currently doing. As Pres Obama highlighted in his memoir the RSS/Modi/Hindutva, is a real risk for future democracy of India, including freedoms and rights of minorities living in the country. India is cannot be a friend of the West if it cannot uphold its democratic ideals.

India has failed to identify any evidence that there was any funding toward violence by the Canadian killed. There are extradition processes in place that ought to be followed if India could prove that or had legitimate evidence. On the other hand there seems to be legitimate evidence that the national sovereignty of Canada was violated which is unacceptable. Modi has a history of suppressing minority voices, including being implicated in the genocide of Muslims which lead to the Western nations barring his entry. Even worse Indian media has shifted to accepting and justifying the fact they killed a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil - equating it to killing Bin Laden. I don't know where this goes but this is a key risk for any investment in India as its looking closer and closer to becoming a rogue state like its partner Russia.

TLT

On a refinancing analysis, there's likely a significant amount of older class A office assets (in the markets above) that are at a shortfall. As the lender, you'd only go into these deals on the assumption that occupancy will improve or you'll be able to extract higher rents given the higher rates. If this trend remains and financing becomes difficult, you likely see price discovery or distress with assets sold at losses on some of these office REITs.

Certainly helps the FIH thesis to suck up to the country's head regulator. Fortunately the India growth thesis likely holds with or without Modi in power.

Has there been any other famous investor that pumps a foreign leader as much as Prem pumps Modi? lol

WFC & BRK

Great post. Look forward to reading more!

Thanks for posting!

It's him https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820

How will Trump react when the shoe is on the other foot? India Bans All Exports of Virus Drug Often Touted by Trump https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/india-bans-all-exports-of-trump-s-game-changer-virus-drug

Before Friday, airlines have had at least a part of their investment thesis in place w/ an understanding that Warren will backstop them from collapse. By showing willingness to sell Airliners, Warren greater leverage and thereby a better deal on the table. Similarly Boeing is playing hardball and not willing to sacrifice equity on a bailout terms from the government - I think Warren's move changes their strategy as well. Like of the rest of us, I believe Warren in part is just waiting for better deals.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-25/coronavirus-a-rent-wipeout-could-ignite-a-mortgage-crisis "As the days go by in an unprecedented shutdown of the U.S. economy to slow the coronavirus outbreak, any amount of rent looks increasingly difficult to cover for a wide swath of Americans, from recently fired service workers to local small-business owners. Unfortunately for those most affected, these payments can’t simply be wiped out — at least, not without dire repercussions. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Noah Smith wrote a column this week arguing that people need a break on all sorts of debts. But when it comes to rent, there’s pretty much no way around people eventually paying what they owe, ideally with the help of the U.S. government, or else risk “turning a health crisis into a banking crisis.” This, more or less, is the catastrophic “domino effect” that real-estate investor Tom Barrack, chief executive officer of Colony Capital Inc., warned about this week. Simply put, if commercial tenants don’t pay rent because of a lack of cash, then property owners might be squeezed and default on their mortgage payments. The same goes for homeowners. That could bring the problem squarely onto the balance sheets of large U.S. banks, which will suffer steep losses on their loans."

CHTR, FB, GOOG, BAM.

BRK.

Noticed significantly smaller volume/price change in WFC leaps today compared to last week. I think at some point both airlines and banks will become interesting plays with longer term calls. It would be useful to compare option leverage to using a margin account as well.

WFC. BRK.B (hopefully both are buying back hand over fist at these prices)

A bit of DISCA today.

~ 38% (not counting dividends) Thanks to CHTR/BAM both being 20%/25% positions at BV.

This appears to be a judicial matter rather than a political one. The appeals are the roadblock to getting the pipeline built. Although they campaigned on it, I don't see how the Conservatives can actually get the pipeline built faster. The Liberals will put the pipeline to am open vote in the House and you can bet on it passing.

"Housing market not headed for a major correction: Moody's Analytics" https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/housing-market-not-headed-for-a-major-correction-moodys-analytics-says