This is THE MOST DANGEROUS time regarding covid

[SharperDingaan]

At present Canada (total) is doing around 950-1000 new Covid cases/day on 37.7M people (2020 pop). The UK is doing 20,000/day on 67.9M people (2020 pop).

The UK covid cases/day is flattening, and when adjusted for population, is 10x the size of the Canadian count. Not a good/bad thing, but EVIDENCE that Canada has its act together better than most

 

Canada is voting Sep-20 on new management, following which there will be major decisions.

1) Most would expect mandatory double-vaccination for ALL federal government employees. ALL staff in a medical facility &/or a university vaccinated, not just most of them. Staffing improvements, systemic reduction in burnout, and (hospital) staff re-assignment elsewhere to reduce backlogs. All good.

2) Most would expect a debt term-out via a material bond issuance. 'Green' bonds paying for energy/infrastructure improvements, via a refinancing of existing monetary issuance. Yield curve change comparable to the economic impact when the infrastructure was first built. All good  

3) Most would expect introduction of a $CAD CBDC, and widespread federal support/integration of de-fi accross the Canadian supply-chain. Fundamental game changer, introduced via the financial serrvices first. Very, very good.

4) Recognition of generational shift. Planning for todays 20-30, and 30-40 yr olds, NOT yesterdays mom/dad or gran/grandpa. $10/day daycare, women in the workforce, Me To, BLM, outlook/attitude change, etc. Proactive change management, very good, but longer term.

 

Lobbyists will swear their individual case up/down, but with change like this; there is clear preference for stable government (majority vs minority rule). All good.

Similar processes repeating themselves elsewhere in the world as well.

 

Covid management is just the litmus test.

If you like what you see, check under the hood.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

  

 

Edited August 17, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[Ross812]

On 8/16/2021 at 11:15 AM, muscleman said:

 

I can't open that url. Can you please post it here?

 

[muscleman]

21 hours ago, Ross812 said:

 

 

The conversation could be more constructive when you post details like this. I've seen this data from the CDC, which is correct, but completely misleading. It combines all the cases since the vaccine becomes available, which has nothing to do with whether the vaccine has ADE or not. The whole point of ADE risk is that the vaccine works extremely well against the original virus but makes it worse during Delta.

[hasilp89]

anecdotally the numerous people i know that have been vaccinated and have gotten covid in the last month (presumably from Delta variant)

 

if ADE was happening wouldn't you see hospitalization/deaths amongst vaccinated spike significantly in the last month when delta has been rampant? Small sample size but one of the two large hospital systems in Charlotte NC published these current statistics (8/16/21) - Total Hospitalized - 142 (7 vaccinated), Total in ICU - 39 (0 vaccinated), Total on a Vent 31 (0 vaccinated). Again I'd assume majority of these cases are delta and if ADE was real wouldn't the numbers include more than 7 vaccinated folks? (to be fair i don't know much about ADE so just posing the question.)

 

 

[muscleman]

17 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

anecdotally the numerous people i know that have been vaccinated and have gotten covid in the last month (presumably from Delta variant)

 

if ADE was happening wouldn't you see hospitalization/deaths amongst vaccinated spike significantly in the last month when delta has been rampant? Small sample size but one of the two large hospital systems in Charlotte NC published these current statistics (8/16/21) - Total Hospitalized - 142 (7 vaccinated), Total in ICU - 39 (0 vaccinated), Total on a Vent 31 (0 vaccinated). Again I'd assume majority of these cases are delta and if ADE was real wouldn't the numbers include more than 7 vaccinated folks? (to be fair i don't know much about ADE so just posing the question.)

 

 

Thank you for the data point. Right now 90% of new cases are Delta.

The numbers you posted here is drastically different from Dallas County or Israel, and more in line with Ontario Canada's numbers. I don't know what's going on here.

Edited August 18, 2021 by muscleman

[Gregmal]

19 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

anecdotally the numerous people i know that have been vaccinated and have gotten covid in the last month (presumably from Delta variant)

 

if ADE was happening wouldn't you see hospitalization/deaths amongst vaccinated spike significantly in the last month when delta has been rampant? Small sample size but one of the two large hospital systems in Charlotte NC published these current statistics (8/16/21) - Total Hospitalized - 142 (7 vaccinated), Total in ICU - 39 (0 vaccinated), Total on a Vent 31 (0 vaccinated). Again I'd assume majority of these cases are delta and if ADE was real wouldn't the numbers include more than 7 vaccinated folks? (to be fair i don't know much about ADE so just posing the question.)

 

 

Oh yea, CDC has continuously lied or at best misrepresented data to fill a narrative. See the recent FL case data. I as well know plenty of vaccinated folks with have gotten covid in the last 4-6 weeks. A few said it was brutal but none were in the hospital. Once again, there's people who want to mouth breathe about OMG 600k dead! but if you're healthy, and vaccinated...at this point its a nothing burger..if it ever was one. Find me a person who got the flu and was like "yo. second best week of my year outside of going to Disney World!"....its not ever gonna be enjoyable, but its no reason to alter your life. I have yet to see any data at all that vaccines haven't at least provided ample reason for folks to move on. Personally, I'll probably get a booster in November or so. 

[Gregmal]

If you are still worried about covid.....suggestion for ya

 

 

 

 

+++++

 

[Longtermlens]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Oh yea, CDC has continuously lied or at best misrepresented data to fill a narrative. See the recent FL case data. I as well know plenty of vaccinated folks with have gotten covid in the last 4-6 weeks. A few said it was brutal but none were in the hospital. Once again, there's people who want to mouth breathe about OMG 600k dead! but if you're healthy, and vaccinated...at this point its a nothing burger..if it ever was one. Find me a person who got the flu and was like "yo. second best week of my year outside of going to Disney World!"....its not ever gonna be enjoyable, but its no reason to alter your life. I have yet to see any data at all that vaccines haven't at least provided ample reason for folks to move on. Personally, I'll probably get a booster in November or so. 

yeah this. i got it on a trip to florida. was vaccinated in march. sucked for three days. prbly didnt help i was on vacation and drinking heavily. no big deal. 

[KJP]

2 hours ago, muscleman said:

Thank you for the data point. Right now 90% of new cases are Delta.

The numbers you posted here is drastically different from Dallas County or Israel, and more in line with Ontario Canada's numbers. I don't know what's going on here.

 

Is that data different than Dallas?  Slide 21 of Dallas presentation you linked to in your first post stated that, as of the date of the report, 139 fully vaccinated people in Dallas County had ever been hospitalized for COVID.  I didn't see any breakdown of how that compared to the number of hospitalizations among the unvaccinated (either ever or during the last month (during the proposed Delta-ADE era)).  Without that comparison, what are you inferring from the Dallas data?

[KJP]

16 hours ago, KJP said:

 

Is that data different than Dallas?  Slide 21 of Dallas presentation you linked to in your first post stated that, as of the date of the report, 139 fully vaccinated people in Dallas County had ever been hospitalized for COVID.  I didn't see any breakdown of how that compared to the number of hospitalizations among the unvaccinated (either ever or during the last month (during the proposed Delta-ADE era)).  Without that comparison, what are you inferring from the Dallas data?

 

Also, here's an analysis of the Isreali data:  https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

 

It seems every data point supports the argument that vaccines are very effective against severe disease from Delta, rather than being counterproductive as in the ADE hypothesis.  I'd be interested to see any contrary interpretation the data.

[muscleman]

1 hour ago, KJP said:

 

Also, here's an analysis of the Isreali data:  https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

 

It seems every data point supports the argument that vaccines are very effective against severe disease from Delta, rather than being counterproductive as in the ADE hypothesis.  I'd be interested to see any contrary interpretation the data.

 

Thank you for the discussion. I appreciate real discussions like this with data and links, not blank assertions that vaccine works, or vaccine doesn't work.

 

When I open the "Israeli government data dashboard" link inside your link, it is not English. I can't understand anything there.

In the link you mentioned, it did say "60% of hospitalized are vaccinated", so at least that means the self media I found are not making up the numbers.

I disagree with the calculation for the cases per 100k people below. According to Google, Israel's vax rate is 59% of the entire population, not 78.7%. The article itself mentioned the following "High vaccination rates in the country (nearly 80% of all residents >12yr)". So it is basically misleading people by using the wrong vaccination rate to play the numbers game. The table below says "All ages", but it is using the vax rate > 12 years old. If they use the 59% vaccination rate, the conclusion is totally different.

 

 

 

[backtothebeach]

Well if this table lower in the article segments the data correctly, especially the severe cases per 100k people within each age group, it is pretty conclusive:
 

[muscleman]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

Well if this table lower in the article segments the data correctly, especially the severe cases per 100k people within each age group, it is pretty conclusive:
 

 

The table that I posted above shows the author is citing misleading vaccination rates to draw his conclusions. (switching the concept of 78% vax rate for 12+ yrs old to  78% vax rate of the entire population).

The table here is pretty solid, if we can verify that the data is correct. I can't understand the Israel government website's language so I can't verify it. If anyone can, please let me know.

 

[KJP]

5 hours ago, muscleman said:

 

Thank you for the discussion. I appreciate real discussions like this with data and links, not blank assertions that vaccine works, or vaccine doesn't work.

 

When I open the "Israeli government data dashboard" link inside your link, it is not English. I can't understand anything there.

In the link you mentioned, it did say "60% of hospitalized are vaccinated", so at least that means the self media I found are not making up the numbers.

I disagree with the calculation for the cases per 100k people below. According to Google, Israel's vax rate is 59% of the entire population, not 78.7%. The article itself mentioned the following "High vaccination rates in the country (nearly 80% of all residents >12yr)". So it is basically misleading people by using the wrong vaccination rate to play the numbers game. The table below says "All ages", but it is using the vax rate > 12 years old. If they use the 59% vaccination rate, the conclusion is totally different.

 

 

 

 

Is that an accurate description of what the author is doing?  According to the following sources, Isreal has between 8.8-9.3 million people:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/israel-demographics/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-it-welcomes-in-2021-israels-population-numbers-9291000/

 

In the "all ages" numbers, the author refers only to 1,302,912 + 5,634,634 = 6,937,546 people.  So, at the outset, he has excluded about 2 million people.  Various sources put the 0-14 years population in Isreal at about 27%:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/israel/

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/latest-population-statistics-for-israel

 

9 million * .27 = 2.43 million 1-14 year olds, or roughly 2 million 0-12 year olds, which is the same number of people missing from the author's "all ages" numbers.  It seems to me they ought to be excluded because there is not vaccinated group of 0-12 years olds against which to measure effectiveness.  Of course, you also need to exclude any 0-12 year olds from the "severe cases" data.  That also appears to be what the author did, because if you download the data table labeled "Isreali_data_August_15_2021" you will see that it includes only data for people 12 and older.  In addition, summing the "severe" cases produces the 214 and 301 numbers from the author's chart.  So, it appears to me that the author's use of 78.7% vaccinated is correct, but his label of "all ages" is misleading, because what the chart actually shows is data for people 12 or older, i.e., the population that is 78.7% vaccinated.

[KJP]

3 hours ago, muscleman said:

 

The table that I posted above shows the author is citing misleading vaccination rates to draw his conclusions. (switching the concept of 78% vax rate for 12+ yrs old to  78% vax rate of the entire population).

 

 

 

I don't think this is correct because the entire chart appears to be limited to 12+ years old (despite the "all ages" label!). 

[muscleman]

5 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Is that an accurate description of what the author is doing?  According to the following sources, Isreal has between 8.8-9.3 million people:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/israel-demographics/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-it-welcomes-in-2021-israels-population-numbers-9291000/

 

In the "all ages" numbers, the author refers only to 1,302,912 + 5,634,634 = 6,937,546 people.  So, at the outset, he has excluded about 2 million people.  Various sources put the 0-14 years population in Isreal at about 27%:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/israel/

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/latest-population-statistics-for-israel

 

9 million * .27 = 2.43 million 1-14 year olds, or roughly 2 million 0-12 year olds, which is the same number of people missing from the author's "all ages" numbers.  It seems to me they ought to be excluded because there is not vaccinated group of 0-12 years olds against which to measure effectiveness.  Of course, you also need to exclude any 0-12 year olds from the "severe cases" data.  That also appears to be what the author did, because if you download the data table labeled "Isreali_data_August_15_2021" you will see that it includes only data for people 12 and older.  In addition, summing the "severe" cases produces the 214 and 301 numbers from the author's chart.  So, it appears to me that the author's use of 78.7% vaccinated is correct, but his label of "all ages" is misleading, because what the chart actually shows is data for people 12 or older, i.e., the population that is 78.7% vaccinated.

Thank you for the explanation. I think it starts to make sense to me now and if the data is correct, then the ADE risk doesn't seem to exist.

I still find it strange that there is not a single severe case for 12 years and younger, as Delta is impacting children more than prior variants. A family in our community just got the whole family of five infected, and their oldest son of 10 years old passed away last week, and their second oldest son of 8 years old is in the ICU. If we have cases like this nearby, I find it hard to believe that Israel as a whole country, doesn't have a single severe case in that period.

 

[KJP]

46 minutes ago, muscleman said:

Thank you for the explanation. I think it starts to make sense to me now and if the data is correct, then the ADE risk doesn't seem to exist.

I still find it strange that there is not a single severe case for 12 years and younger, as Delta is impacting children more than prior variants.

 

 

The data the author used doesn't say there were no severe cases in under 12s.  Rather, it contains no data at all about them.  So it's possible there are hospitalizations of under 12s in Isreal.  By "data" I'm referring to the "Isreali_data_August_15_2021" excel file that can be downloaded from the post. 

[Ross812]

On 8/15/2021 at 2:28 PM, muscleman said:

This phenomenon is called Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE). It has been observed in prior measles vaccines, and the FDA rejected the vaccine back then. This time, I think the FDA and the big pharma will never admit the ADE, but instead defend themselves to the end, because they have authorized emergency use, and so many people have taken it, so the potentially liability is too large to admit any mistakes.

 

The other data point is on page 21 here. The % of hospitalization for the break through cases are concerning. 

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/2021-COVID-19-Summaries/CV19-Summaries-08/DCHHS COVID-19 Summary 08062021.pdf

 

So far I would not say ADE is confirmed with the covid vaccines but it is quite possible, and it is very hard to find any more data sources reporting the breakdown of daily new cases and hospitalizations of vaccinated vs unvaccinated. If anyone of you can find any more data sources, please let me know.

 

How is the Dallas data indicative of ADE?

 

I put together this composite chart from the source you linked:

 

 

Even in the last weeks where community spread is almost entirely Delta, only 16-17% of the cases are in vaccinated individuals (49% of the county population, slide 17). The 51% of unvaccinated residents make up more than 80% of the cases. 

 

I could not find total weekly hospitalizations, but 139 vaccinated individuals were hospitalized over the above CDC weeks 5-30. This is a rate of 4.2%. Total hospitalizations since the start of the pandemic have been 22,381 with 322,873 confirmed cases (slide 1). A rate of 6.9%. Total deaths since the start of the pandemic have been 4,224 which is a death rate of 1.3%. This compares with the CDC weeks 5-30 data above of a 1.58% death rate in unvaccinated individuals and a 0.6% death rate for vaccinated individuals. 

 

If the vaccine were not effective, we would expect similar  numbers and death rates between unvaccinated and vaccinated people. If ADE were occurring, we would expect the death rate of the vaccinated to exceed the unvaccinated. 

[muscleman]

1 hour ago, Ross812 said:

 

How is the Dallas data indicative of ADE?

 

I put together this composite chart from the source you linked:

 

 

Even in the last weeks where community spread is almost entirely Delta, only 16-17% of the cases are in vaccinated individuals (49% of the county population, slide 17). The 51% of unvaccinated residents make up more than 80% of the cases. 

 

I could not find total weekly hospitalizations, but 139 vaccinated individuals were hospitalized over the above CDC weeks 5-30. This is a rate of 4.2%. Total hospitalizations since the start of the pandemic have been 22,381 with 322,873 confirmed cases (slide 1). A rate of 6.9%. Total deaths since the start of the pandemic have been 4,224 which is a death rate of 1.3%. This compares with the CDC weeks 5-30 data above of a 1.58% death rate in unvaccinated individuals and a 0.6% death rate for vaccinated individuals. 

 

If the vaccine were not effective, we would expect similar  numbers and death rates between unvaccinated and vaccinated people. If ADE were occurring, we would expect the death rate of the vaccinated to exceed the unvaccinated. 

 

Thank you for looking into the report. I appreciate people like you who seriously look into the data.

The report doesn't have detailed weekly breakdowns of the hospitalization numbers for unvaxed people. So we can only do some back of the napkin estimates. Assuming delta variant and the original variant's severe case % for unvaxed people is similar, then if we take that 20k total hospitalizations in the report, and divide that by the 332k total cases, we get about 6.2% hospitalizations. This is much lower than the 12.1% hospitalization of the vaxed group on page 21. Of course, there is a break down of hospitalization due to covid and not due to covid, for those 12.1% vaxed cases, so the actual % should be lower, but i assume the same happens for unvaxed group. I've seen online stories about this. Hospitals are eager to find covid positive cases and put them in the covid division. Even if it is just 1 day, they charge 15k from the insurance company.

 

Regarding the table you posted above, I would argue that there is a much more testing effort going on for the unvaxed group, so there could be lots of vaxed and positive cases not found. A lot of employers are pushing for the policy to either get vaxed or get tested weekly. This means vaxed people, if they have a mild sympthom, very likely goes uncovered. The reason I have strong doubts about this table is because with the recent Delta breakout, it is already clear that vaccination does not provide protection against infection. So I've been focused on hospitalization rate.

 

 

 

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

On 8/15/2021 at 11:28 AM, muscleman said:

 

Recently, I came across this article, which shows that the antibody generated after taking the vaccine likely acted as the trojan horse and assisted the Delta variant to more effectively infect the human body, instead of neutralizing the virus itself.

https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(21)00392-3/fulltext

 

So the claim is that the vaccine makes the virus "more effectively infect the human body".

 

Yet the dead people are the unvaccinated ones.

 

I smell bs.

Edited August 20, 2021 by ERICOPOLY

[ERICOPOLY]

On 8/15/2021 at 11:28 AM, muscleman said:

 

This is in line with Israel's latest data. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1424111796860956672

 

 

Some numbers on what a 3rd Pfizer shot does in Israel:

 

Israeli national HMO Maccabi Healthcare Services, which conducted the preliminary study of 149,144 Israelis who received three Pfizer shots, said for Israelis above age 60, a Pfizer booster shot reduced the chances of infection by 86% and reduced the chances of severe infection by 92%.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why

[cwericb]

On 8/18/2021 at 3:56 PM, Gregmal said:

If you are still worried about covid.....suggestion for ya

 

 

 

 

+++++

 

 

 

What he said....

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-20/delta-case-wave-in-u-s-northeast-may-be-nearing-its-peak

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-20/delta-case-wave-in-u-s-northeast-may-be-nearing-its-peak

That one top I don’t mind calling. I also think this top is called correctly. A few weeks from now, the delta wave will be over. The endemic will stay with us though.

[lnofeisone]

On 8/20/2021 at 1:17 PM, ERICOPOLY said:

 

So the claim is that the vaccine makes the virus "more effectively infect the human body".

 

Yet the dead people are the unvaccinated ones.

 

I smell bs.

I don't know if I would call the results published in the article bs. I think this is one of those things where it's helpful to distinguish probability and outcome. The article just shows a possible pathway. It doesn't assign probabilities to that pathway. There is clearly another pathway, i.e., unvaccinated people getting delta. So if you assign 0.001% probability to former and 99.999% to the latter, you get closer to the observations you see in the real world (i.e., most dead people are unvaccinated).