Dalal.Holdings Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 The guy could have come back and hyped up any heavily shorted business, but he comes back to the same old one…he overestimated his powers. The same conditions do not exist as did few years ago to rip this. Now you’ll have the company issuing 75M shares into this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: The guy could have come back and hyped up any heavily shorted business, but he comes back to the same old one…he overestimated his powers. The same conditions do not exist as did few years ago to rip this. Now you’ll have the company issuing 75M shares into this as well Yeeeerppp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 (edited) 24 minutes ago, brobro777 said: Yea I think there could be one more rip Could be one more Too many new shares for it to rip. And if it pops at all buyers risk Cohen dumping more new shares in an ATM next day. Its over. Keith Gill is going to hold on to his shares again, and lose big this time. His $20 calls are melting away, two weeks left before they expire and odds are they'll be worth less than what he paid ($5.68). In a few months his shares (basis $21.27) will almost certainly be underwater. There will be little to hold this up over $5 a share when all the burned retail buyers flee, it's going to trade down close to its cash value. GME is no longer a business, it's a stock sale machine. It's ironic how much Gill praised Cohen on the live stream as Cohen was burning down Gill's position. Gill should have taken Buffett's most important quote to heart before this. He's going to end up losing a lot of money and something even more valuable to monetize, the love of millions. He'll be a pariah in the future. Quote It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently. Edited June 7 by ValueArb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 The power of reflexivity in markets......GameStop was a shitco heading for bankruptcy...but then a bunch of people believed in the company's future...it issued a bunch of stock......now its a company with a future simply by virtue of its ability to issue paper and get cash with WACC well below 1% which it can now deploy to do other things. ShitCo > Believe > OkCo....the market turning water into wine before our eyes Love him or loathe Elon is Roaring Kitty adjacent when you get down to it.....he may be an engineering genius/visionary....but his real special sauce IMO is his business 'charisma' as the companies he's involved with get access to top tier talent who idolize him while he is also able to access cheap equity capital such that it changes the underlying business prospects of everything he touches. Competency is important of course and Elon has it but being able to run the street is a skill. So 'running the street' is I think an underestimated skillset of a public company CEO.....now of course there's a line......spend 80% of your time running the street as a CEO instead of your business.....and your effectively a stock promoter......but ignore it and your failing to do your job and hurting your company's business prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: The power of reflexivity in markets......GameStop was a shitco heading for bankruptcy...but then a bunch of people believed in the company's future...it issued a bunch of stock......now its a company with a future simply by virtue of its ability to issue paper and get cash with WACC well below 1% which it can now deploy to do other things. ShitCo > Believe > OkCo....the market turning water into wine before our eyes Love him or loathe Elon is Roaring Kitty adjacent when you get down to it.....he may be an engineering genius/visionary....but his real special sauce IMO is his business 'charisma' as the companies he's involved with get access to top tier talent who idolize him while he is also able to access cheap equity capital such that it changes the underlying business prospects of everything he touches. Competency is important of course and Elon has it but being able to run the street is a skill. So 'running the street' is I think an underestimated skillset of a public company CEO.....now of course there's a line......spend 80% of your time running the street as a CEO instead of your business.....and your effectively a stock promoter......but ignore it and your failing to do your job and hurting your company's business prospects. The Elon - Roaring Kitty comparison is a stretch. Elon doesn’t spend anything close to “80%” of his time “running the street”. Both Tesla and SpaceX are runaway successes, the latter is not even public. He seems to have a good understanding of the physics and underlying principles of the businesses he runs. Before his current successess, he became rich with Paypal and threw all his winnings into SpaceX and Tesla. Roaring Kitty is a livestreamer who was in the right place at the right time a few years ago and it seems like he came back not realizing that times have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 2 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: The Elon - Roaring Kitty comparison is a stretch. I did use the word adjacent........but my main point is that running the street or lets call it market perception management is so much more important than many think....it can literally turn water into wine via reflexivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Yeah I think people who think Tesla/Elon’s success is due to luck/market manipulation are not attached to reality. If Elon’s not one of the most successful entrepreneurs in history, then who is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 (edited) 1 hour ago, ValueArb said: Too many new shares for it to rip. And if it pops at all buyers risk Cohen dumping more new shares in an ATM next day. Its over. Keith Gill is going to hold on to his shares again, and lose big this time. His $20 calls are melting away, two weeks left before they expire and odds are they'll be worth less than what he paid ($5.68). In a few months his shares (basis $21.27) will almost certainly be underwater. There will be little to hold this up over $5 a share when all the burned retail buyers flee, it's going to trade down close to its cash value. GME is no longer a business, it's a stock sale machine. It's ironic how much Gill praised Cohen on the live stream as Cohen was burning down Gill's position. Gill should have taken Buffett's most important quote to heart before this. He's going to end up losing a lot of money and something even more valuable to monetize, the love of millions. He'll be a pariah in the future. If some livestreamer who wears a bandana won the lottery and then blows it, it would be the ultimate sequel to the original movie. His livestream today was full of laughs and “being silly”, meanwhile, as the movie “Dumb Money” showed, many hard working people followed him into ruin and it may be repeating. This difference is that time even Keith may not make it out Edited June 7 by Dalal.Holdings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 (edited) Was he caught off guard by the offering? That's why the live stream was delayed and why he was clearly stressed and nervous? Edited June 7 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Just now, Luca said: Was he caught off guard by the offering? That's why the live stream was delayed and why he was clearly stressed and nervous? Well he said he has confidence in CEO Ryan Cohen. What better sign of a competent CEO than one who sells high? Beats most corporate heads who buy back stock when it’s high like $CHTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, Luca said: He should have exited when he more than doubled again. Greed... 700m or whatever close to 1b is enough for me to retire. Should even be enough for @Dinar Yeah, knowing when to stop is important - just saw a film about Napoleon. 700MM USD would be enough for me, that way I can fly by private jet and not stand in line for 50 minutes because the airline has delayed boarding. Where in Germany are you Luca? I am visiting one of your neighbors. I am frankly shocked that in a high end restaurant in a European capital, 90% of the clients were foreigners (Chinese, Russian speakers, Americans and even a French couple - why would French people go to a good restaurant outside of France is a mystery to me, the value proposition is not there for them.) This is a wealthy country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 30 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: The power of reflexivity in markets......GameStop was a shitco heading for bankruptcy...but then a bunch of people believed in the company's future...it issued a bunch of stock......now its a company with a future simply by virtue of its ability to issue paper and get cash with WACC well below 1% which it can now deploy to do other things. It doesn't have a future, it has a pile of cash. Ryan Cohen still has to show he can actually turn it around, or develop a profitable new business. 30 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: ShitCo > Believe > OkCo....the market turning water into wine before our eyes Love him or loathe Elon is Roaring Kitty adjacent when you get down to it.....he may be an engineering genius/visionary....but his real special sauce IMO is his business 'charisma' as the companies he's involved with get access to top tier talent who idolize him while he is also able to access cheap equity capital such that it changes the underlying business prospects of everything he touches. Competency is important of course and Elon has it but being able to run the street is a skill. So 'running the street' is I think an underestimated skillset of a public company CEO.....now of course there's a line......spend 80% of your time running the street as a CEO instead of your business.....and your effectively a stock promoter......but ignore it and your failing to do your job and hurting your company's business prospects. Its not charisma, its not "running the street", its track record. You can be the slickest, glibbest, handsomest CEO on the street who relentlessly takes advantage of every public appearance, but that's only going to help on the margins. Your stock has to perform or no one will give a crap. To quote the great screenwriter Bill Goldman, "nobody knows anything". 99.99% of retail have no clue about how to value a business, and neither do 99% of professional investors. All they can do is assume that what went up is going to keep going up and to keep betting on the horses that won the most prior races. Roaring Kitty just took a huge L that's going to make some of his worshippers start to question his judgement, Elon hasn't taken a huge loss yet, but a few more Twitters and Boring companies and that inflow of eager capital is going to dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, Dinar said: Yeah, knowing when to stop is important - just saw a film about Napoleon. 700MM USD would be enough for me, that way I can fly by private jet and not stand in line for 50 minutes because the airline has delayed boarding. Where in Germany are you Luca? I am visiting one of your neighbors. I am frankly shocked that in a high end restaurant in a European capital, 90% of the clients were foreigners (Chinese, Russian speakers, Americans and even a French couple - why would French people go to a good restaurant outside of France is a mystery to me, the value proposition is not there for them.) This is a wealthy country. From Hamburg, enjoy France!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: The Elon - Roaring Kitty comparison is a stretch. Elon doesn’t spend anything close to “80%” of his time “running the street”. Both Tesla and SpaceX are runaway successes, the latter is not even public. He seems to have a good understanding of the physics and underlying principles of the businesses he runs. Before his current successess, he became rich with Paypal and threw all his winnings into SpaceX and Tesla. Roaring Kitty is a livestreamer who was in the right place at the right time a few years ago and it seems like he came back not realizing that times have changed. I think even before PayPal he had plenty with Zip2, which was sold to Compaq Computer for $307 million. Edited June 7 by boilermaker75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 You can say a lot of things about Elon but the man’s intellect is in the top 100 people in the world and when you combine that with his work ethic you get magic. ill never forget watching him taking to MIT students and a student told him about a problem he was having with his research project, it has been several years since I’ve seen the video but so I have forgot the question but I remember Elon asked him only one question, “what is the diameter?’ the student gave him the answer and it took Elon about a two second pause and then told him why he was wrong and gave him the math to prove it and how to correct it. you don’t see people like that very often in this world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 39 minutes ago, wescobrk said: it took Elon about a two second pause and then told him why he was wrong and gave him the math to prove it and how to correct it. Exactly. He routinely discusses some of the physical problems at his companies fluently and in great depth and yet most people focus on his tweets/media headlines and draw conclusions from that limited dataset. Here is one where he predicts what happened to the rocket (not with hindsight) You think the CEO of Boeing can do this ? Maybe that's the problem with Boeing. I think a lot of people are just biased against Elon for various reasons: politics, etc. The most prominent here being a bunch of salty TSLA short sellers who lost their shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNF2007 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 I was puzzled over this one, maybe he is intentionally taking a loss to throw up some smoke and cover the pump and dump? Even after today he is still up quite a bit on his positions from the rally. The rationale he gave during the live stream seemed nonsensical to me, he is essentially hoping for some new amazing business to rise out of the ashes? Also the extreme concentration and short dated options contracts make it seem like the game all along was to rally the masses one last time... Reading through some of the reddit and twitter messages there is still a narrative out there among the diehards that there is some massive short squeeze incoming, SEC report from last time notwithstanding. https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 4 hours ago, changegonnacome said: I did use the word adjacent........but my main point is that running the street or lets call it market perception management is so much more important than many think....it can literally turn water into wine via reflexivity. It can change the outcome but GME is still a sh$tco albeit with a great balance sheet now. the comparison to Elon and Berkshire are quite hilarious. This is nothing but a penny stock promotion but at greater scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 41 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: You think the CEO of Boeing can do this ? Maybe that's the problem with Boeing. The problem with Boeing is not its CEO ability to get technical or not. The previous Boeing CEO was technical and rose from the engineering rank and didn’t have a drop of GE blood. The issue is that Seattle and Charleston are in the aerospace design and manufacturing business whereas Calhoun’s Virginia-based “Supreme” headquarters is the “capital allocation” business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatstheofficerproblem Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 I am surprised.. so his play on GME is that he is counting on a Ryan Cohen turnaround? And he is playing this with options that expire in 2 weeks? I am now sure this is just blatant manipulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 I watched Roaring Kitty‘s livestream on YT tonite and I think he could have some mental health issues. The livestream was a total dud, the stock fell like $8 during his stream and his ramblings were totally incoherent and made no sense whatsoever. It seems to me that all this craziness got in his head. I hope he is alright and stays grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 7 hours ago, ValueArb said: Gill should have taken Buffett's most important quote to heart before this. He's going to end up losing a lot of money and something even more valuable to monetize, the love of millions. He'll be a pariah in the future. An even more fundamental rule he should have learned: ”You only need to get rich once” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 (edited) 6 hours ago, Spekulatius said: I watched Roaring Kitty‘s livestream on YT tonite and I think he could have some mental health issues. The livestream was a total dud, the stock fell like $8 during his stream and his ramblings were totally incoherent and made no sense whatsoever. It seems to me that all this craziness got in his head. I hope he is alright and stays grounded. 7 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: I am surprised.. so his play on GME is that he is counting on a Ryan Cohen turnaround? And he is playing this with options that expire in 2 weeks? I am now sure this is just blatant manipulation. When he said he doesn't really know but he likes Cohen and the story but then again he doesn't really know and "just likes the stock" and then drinks his weird beer or whatever and just rambled on half mentally ill...what the fuck... And yeah the option position doesn't make sense to his story...honestly, I think he tried to pump it but then got surprised by the massive offerings and the effect it had? Then he started the stream and I think he was under insane pressure because he had to keep up a happy face but had the inner panic of it going down further etc Edited June 8 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 15 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Amazing that the guy had enough money to live well for the rest of his life but couldn’t resist coming back in…for the same shitco stock (could have come back investing in semi-legitimate companies). The movie and social media posts must’ve gotten to him. This story may not be finished yet, but if it fizzles out like this with Gill losing his own fortune, it would be quite the ending How do we know he didn't but a ton of puts at or near the top? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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