Guest Schwab711 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Michael Levitt, Stanford professor, won a Nobel prize etc, tweeted this two days ago: "Italy seems to be past the midpoint. We predict this will end with 140,000 to 150,000 cases and 17,000 to 20,000 deaths. As terrible as this is, there are normally 1,765 deaths in Italy on a average day. This means that over the 6 week period in which COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Italy, the excess due to COVID-19 is no more than 25% of the number of natural deaths. It may be less, if some of those who died, would have died normally in the 42 day period." They closed down their entire country to limit deaths to that level. I'm not saying you can't make a case that it was a global overreaction or whatever, but be consistent. If you are going to point to cost per excess death then you should look at originally predicted deaths, less actual deaths, divided by cost. I'm not opposed to skepticism, I'm opposed to cherry picking data. Edit: To clarify, you are obviously just quoting someone else so my message is aimed generally rather than at you. I'm frustrated with folks that are quoted widely using bad stats/evidence to support the theory of an overreaction. It may end up being true but I don't think there's anyway to show it 1 month in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Michael Levitt, Stanford professor, won a Nobel prize etc, tweeted this two days ago: "Italy seems to be past the midpoint. We predict this will end with 140,000 to 150,000 cases and 17,000 to 20,000 deaths. As terrible as this is, there are normally 1,765 deaths in Italy on a average day. This means that over the 6 week period in which COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Italy, the excess due to COVID-19 is no more than 25% of the number of natural deaths. It may be less, if some of those who died, would have died normally in the 42 day period." They closed down their entire country to limit deaths to that level. I'm not saying you can't make a case that it was a global overreaction or whatever, but be consistent. If you are going to point to cost per excess death then you should look at originally predicted deaths, less actual deaths, divided by cost. I'm not opposed to skepticism, I'm opposed to cherry picking data. We don't know original predicted deaths as predictions vary enormously. We can look at a doomsday model that predicted endless compounding into the millions and millions with no stop till a significant part of the population is dead, or we can look at Sweden as a model who did virtually nothing to contain it but still somehow follow the rest of Europe in number of infections. Anybody will select a model that fits their own bias best. Anyway, i'm not saying it's a global overreaction thus far from a policy standpoint (it has been from a media standpoint though). A semi-lock-down of say, three weeks or maybe a month at the absolute most, seems somewhat reasonable, as every country got completely blindsided by this (even though after China they had sufficient time to prepare). This allows stocking up on ventilators, on IC availability, on drugs, on protective clothing, whatever, and to make people aware. Also, it's reasonable to assume an economy will quickly recover from this with little structural damage and we avoid a prolonged recession, as most consumers and small businesses will be able to survive one month of isolation and a government can afford to support the ones that don't. I'm just extremely sceptical of the doomsday-scenario's I keep reading (here and elsewhere) that this lockdown will take much longer than expected and how that is somehow a rational course of action in the first place. Well into the summer perhaps, or even longer. And how that's worth it; cause if that's what it takes to kill this virus, then that's what it takes. And one month definitely won't be enough to kill it, we all know that, only to get the numbers down. I strongly believe more than one month of lockdown will structurally kill off parts of your economy though, as some parts will just disappear and a government will quickly run out of ammo trying to support everybody. After a month the rational play would be to manage this virus, which on a macro scale is just not that deadly in the first place, while we're better prepared for it and continue with our lives. I'm just extremely worried the hypocrisy surrounding deaths and the hype that surrounds this corona crisis will prevent governments from taking that course of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Please join me in wearing a mask TL;DR: You should assume you’re sick, and cover your mouth and nose when you go out. Masks are not a replacement for other quarantine and suppression efforts, they’re additive. Face masks are a tried and true solution that has been used effectively throughout Asia for Coronavirus COVID-19 and SARS before it. https://medium.com/@thejanellemj/please-join-me-in-wearing-a-mask-71e0e3f4fe4a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 minten, I think the fear is that the virus will could get out of control and kill huge numbers of people. After all, it is spreading exponentially. I'd rather the government be harsh and do what they can to limit the spread and damage, than say it is like the flu and not do too much. I am seeing headlines everyday of famous people who have died from the corona virus. It is real, and it seems to kill all kinds of people. We're just starting this in the US. We probably have quite a bit more to go unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 A study from City University of Hong Kong found that the efficacy of a mask made at home out of two pieces of paper towel + a tissue “…were proven to have achieved 80 to 90 per cent of the function of regular surgical masks in terms of their filtration of aerosol and droplets.” That’s pretty good for something you can make from home. Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050689/how-make-your-own-mask-hong-kong-scientists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 We are going to feel like idiots if we find out that 80% of the deaths could have been prevented if everybody simply wore makeshift cloth masks. I honestly think that this can actually be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 We are going to feel like idiots if we find out that 80% of the deaths could have been prevented if everybody simply wore makeshift cloth masks. I honestly think that this can actually be the case. Can't change the past, but hopefully we learn, and change the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 "We are going to feel like idiots if we find out that 80% of the deaths could have been prevented if everybody simply wore makeshift cloth masks. I honestly think that this can actually be the case." Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 We are going to feel like idiots if we find out that 80% of the deaths could have been prevented if everybody simply wore makeshift cloth masks. I honestly think that this can actually be the case. The best argument for facemasks, of any kind, regardless of their filtration efficacy, is that they stop people from unconsciously touching their face. Was listening to a doctor from NY being interviewed on the radio and he said the vast majority of community spread cases (as in not family members) came from a person touching their face rather than breathing in droplets. If you're in close proximity to someone with the virus for a prolonged amount of time, yes the aerosolized virus is an issue. However, for the majority of people who are not exposed to infected people more than in passing, a simple mask coupled with an awareness to not touch your face will reduce your risk significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 We are going to feel like idiots if we find out that 80% of the deaths could have been prevented if everybody simply wore makeshift cloth masks. I honestly think that this can actually be the case. probably 90% of the deaths could have been avoided if we made all elderly/compromised wear masks. for the rest of us, infection produces antibodies...which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-face-mask.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 so true , Liberty. and same case in Canada. I watched the face-mask question asked twice today - once to Dr Tam and once to Dr Williams on two separate occasions. I just couldn't get why they insist wearing masks for the healthy presents more risks - where's the evidence of that? did we see that in Asia? and if it's so risky, why won't they public on government website how to wear masks properly? i think by now everybody knows how to wash their hands. time to show us another trick... lol i don't have a problem if they'd just be honest and say we don't have enough masks - please save them for frontline workers.... don't lie to people... and maybe companies in canada will step up to make them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-face-mask.html Support Lithuanian entrepreneurs - buy hand-sewn masks on Etsy! #partlykidding #Lithuania 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 so true , Liberty. and same case in Canada. I watched the face-mask question asked twice today - once to Dr Tam and once to Dr Williams on two separate occasions. I just couldn't get why they insist wearing masks for the healthy presents more risks - where's the evidence of that? did we see that in Asia? and if it's so risky, why won't they public on government website how to wear masks properly? i think by now everybody knows how to wash their hands. time to show us another trick... lol i don't have a problem if they'd just be honest and say we don't have enough masks - please save them for frontline workers.... don't lie to people... and maybe companies in canada will step up to make them. At my wife’s hospital, managements response to all of this has been complete nonsense. They told staff they aren’t allowed to wear masks unless they are in direct oversight of a patient with a confirmed case because it “scares” other patients. They also said you’re not allowed to wear your scrubs outside of the hospital because it could cause public panic. At least blame it on supply issues. This is one of the highest level hospitals on the east coast....people want to blame leadership all the way at the top (and they deserve a lot) but the leadership at “boots in the ground” levels have been abysmal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy. My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face. Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now. Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer. I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy. My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face. Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now. Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer. I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of? Wear examination gloves so touching your face is unpleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 so true , Liberty. and same case in Canada. I watched the face-mask question asked twice today - once to Dr Tam and once to Dr Williams on two separate occasions. I just couldn't get why they insist wearing masks for the healthy presents more risks - where's the evidence of that? did we see that in Asia? and if it's so risky, why won't they public on government website how to wear masks properly? i think by now everybody knows how to wash their hands. time to show us another trick... lol i don't have a problem if they'd just be honest and say we don't have enough masks - please save them for frontline workers.... don't lie to people... and maybe companies in canada will step up to make them. Agreed. Are all those Asian countries (where everyone wears a mask) who have more experience dealing with virus really that stupid? I am getting more concerned about Canada’s response. I am not seeing any urgency around solving testing issues (number and time to process). Looks to me like a very sloth like response. Limited ability to look ahead, innovate (think outside the box) and drive to the optimal solution. The downside of public health care. The old Peter Lynch line (i think) ‘nobody got fired for buying IBM’ regardless of whether it was a good investment at the time. No incentive to be a risk taker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 We are going to feel like idiots if we find out that 80% of the deaths could have been prevented if everybody simply wore makeshift cloth masks. I honestly think that this can actually be the case. The best argument for facemasks, of any kind, regardless of their filtration efficacy, is that they stop people from unconsciously touching their face. Was listening to a doctor from NY being interviewed on the radio and he said the vast majority of community spread cases (as in not family members) came from a person touching their face rather than breathing in droplets. If you're in close proximity to someone with the virus for a prolonged amount of time, yes the aerosolized virus is an issue. However, for the majority of people who are not exposed to infected people more than in passing, a simple mask coupled with an awareness to not touch your face will reduce your risk significantly. Masks do two things. - they protect the person who is wearing them and in protect everyone else around a pot. Infected person too. The Virus main mechanism of transmission is droplets which occur when talking or coughing. A mask will capture most of those, if an infected wears them protecting her people around. Even an imperfect mask should be a filter and dramatically reduce the amount of drops and their reach, both coming and as well as coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy. My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face. Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now. Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer. I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of? plenty of asian people touch their face too.. i think the biggest benefit of society wearing masks is it both helps to keep the wearer more safe (to an extent), but it also helps the wearer spread the virus less. I think the combination of the 2 seems to make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up. The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Well the Chief Doctor of US (referring to Trump) just said it at the briefing - he'd consider asking all Americans to wear a mask (for a brief period of time). I am starting to feel the US might do better than Canada over the long run - Abbot's 5 min test; the innovation to disinfect masks ; self-swap to lessen demand on PPE -- vaccines, therapeutics .... yes Trump had a slower start, but i think once everybody else agreed to do this, that innovation is there to solve this very quickly. Canada feels to be the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Scale Gary Scale other then 15 million in Ont what 7 or so in que 6-7 in van less then 4 in AB and littke ole me in SK less then 100 sapiens per sq mile lol ha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up. The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first. You can get plenty of cloth masks (best with insert pockets) on Etsy (even if you don't buy from #Lithuania). We also ordered 30 count of disposables from Amazon (boo hiss we evil). I'll let people know if/when they arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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