muscleman Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 the second shoe drops. https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-19-unrestricted-bioweapon-whistleblower-releases-second-paper-alleging-large-scaley Zerohedge has had an unusual focus on the bioweapon thesis. There have been many stories including this one: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-secret-history-coronavirus-bioweapon Out of curiosity, in the event that the thesis is true (ie the virus is man-made and accidentally or even as part of a human plan, was released as a 'weapon'), this would have potential consequences for 'reparation'. But how does this change the defensive strategy, ie how to limit the damage, relatively speaking, in comparison to other countries for example, from a data point of view? imo, not in any respect. but the veracity of this claim is perhaps the single most important foreign policy issue today...and it is not being discussed as such, although trump has been alluding to it...put another way, how would you react to a bombing conducted by China against the US that resulted in 200k deaths? I know this is being provocative but my intent is to provoke thought. my understanding of the bioscience is quite limited, but sufficient to appreciate these claims as legitimate I disagree with Zerohedge. My classmate works in a flu lab in cold spring harbor in NY. She said before 2012, they've been doing a lot of things similar to what this Wuhan Virology lab's been accused of doing. They genetically mutate the flu virus to see how to make it more deadly. Later it was banned because it is too dangerous and doesn't really contribute to science a lot. That's the fact. The rumor part is that a lot of this kind of research was outsourced to China. The scientist Zhengli Shi (Wuhan virology institute's Vice Director) was obsessed with this kind of research because it is banned in most other countries, so if she did it, it would be so easy to publish top notch papers. She did publish a paper in 2015 regarding genetically swapping the S protein of a SARS like virus and then the virus can infect human. (That's fact, not rumor) So that's all I know. I still think (without evidence) that this whole COVID thing is an accident from Wuhan Virology Institute. The director of Wuhan Virology Institute is not very good. So I wouldn't be surprised of mismanagement of the lab.
Gregmal Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 the second shoe drops. https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-19-unrestricted-bioweapon-whistleblower-releases-second-paper-alleging-large-scaley Zerohedge has had an unusual focus on the bioweapon thesis. There have been many stories including this one: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-secret-history-coronavirus-bioweapon Out of curiosity, in the event that the thesis is true (ie the virus is man-made and accidentally or even as part of a human plan, was released as a 'weapon'), this would have potential consequences for 'reparation'. But how does this change the defensive strategy, ie how to limit the damage, relatively speaking, in comparison to other countries for example, from a data point of view? imo, not in any respect. but the veracity of this claim is perhaps the single most important foreign policy issue today...and it is not being discussed as such, although trump has been alluding to it...put another way, how would you react to a bombing conducted by China against the US that resulted in 200k deaths? I know this is being provocative but my intent is to provoke thought. my understanding of the bioscience is quite limited, but sufficient to appreciate these claims as legitimate I disagree with Zerohedge. My classmate works in a flu lab in cold spring harbor in NY. She said before 2012, they've been doing a lot of things similar to what this Wuhan Virology lab's been accused of doing. They genetically mutate the flu virus to see how to make it more deadly. Later it was banned because it is too dangerous and doesn't really contribute to science a lot. That's the fact. The rumor part is that a lot of this kind of research was outsourced to China. The scientist Zhengli Shi (Wuhan virology institute's Vice Director) was obsessed with this kind of research because it is banned in most other countries, so if she did it, it would be so easy to publish top notch papers. She did publish a paper in 2015 regarding genetically swapping the S protein of a SARS like virus and then the virus can infect human. (That's fact, not rumor) So that's all I know. I still think (without evidence) that this whole COVID thing is an accident from Wuhan Virology Institute. The director of Wuhan Virology Institute is not very good. So I wouldn't be surprised of mismanagement of the lab. This is intentional and one of the biggest problems with MSM. They do things like this, to preemptively cut off and discourage the eventual outcomes that dont fit their narratives and agendas. It seemed pretty clear early on, especially paying attention to Chinas actions, that this most likely was a lab escaped virus, most likely the result of negligence rather than anything sinister. But when its already framed early on to be a tin foil hat, conspiracy theory pushed idea that the virus came from a lab...... Same thing with voter fraud. Sure it hasn't happened before on a large scale. So what? That means we shouldn't take precautions going ahead? Just ignore the issue completely? Never before have we had mail in voting be so prevalent as this year. But if you script the narrative ahead of time, and already paint anyone who brings this issue up as a crazy, its serves your purpose of immediately allowing you to discredit them.
LC Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 Yea but Greg there is some inconsistency, because here is what seems to be the "right-wing" interpretation of these events (feel free to correct me here, though): Virus released from Wuhan lab: No evidence, but let's believe it and take commensurate actions regardless. Mail in voter fraud: No evidence, but let's believe it and take commensurate actions regardless. Third wave of coronavirus: No evidence, b-Don't you dare suggest lockdowns without evidence! I am all for prudency, and I have no problem (in fact I would encourage) states to strengthen their processes around mail-in voting. And I think the US government and international health groups should investigate the Wuhan lab for their controls around these viruses. Of course this would be a lot easier if USA was still a leading, influential member of the WHO...
muscleman Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Yea but Greg there is some inconsistency, because here is what seems to be the "right-wing" interpretation of these events (feel free to correct me here, though): Virus released from Wuhan lab: No evidence, but let's believe it and take commensurate actions regardless. Mail in voter fraud: No evidence, but let's believe it and take commensurate actions regardless. Third wave of coronavirus: No evidence, b-Don't you dare suggest lockdowns without evidence! I am all for prudency, and I have no problem (in fact I would encourage) states to strengthen their processes around mail-in voting. And I think the US government and international health groups should investigate the Wuhan lab for their controls around these viruses. Of course this would be a lot easier if USA was still a leading, influential member of the WHO... Virus with Wuhan lab........ Didn't you read my comment about Zhengli Shi? Her publications are the primary reasons that people are thinking about virus escaping there. Mail in voter fraud: You can't just close your eyes and ignore things like this. There are not like a few cameras per intersaction like those Chinese cities. So if I see one roach, I know there are likely many more under there. https://wgntv.com/news/us-postal-worker-in-new-jersey-arrested-accused-of-dumping-mail-and-election-ballots/ 3rd wave: I was wrong about the prediction about 20k daily at the end of August. I should have realized that different states have different situations. I still think GA, FL, TX, NY won't have another wave. They reached similar level of total case/population and GA, FL, TX have been open for 2 months. Other states have not reached this level of total case/population so it is possible to have another wave.
Spekulatius Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Quick take on the situation in Spain, one of the worst Wortformen in this pandemic: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/spain-s-toxic-politics-and-health-crisis-have-got-merkel-worried
Cigarbutt Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 ... Third wave of coronavirus: No evidence, b-Don't you dare suggest lockdowns without evidence! ... ... 3rd wave: I was wrong about the prediction about 20k daily at the end of August. I still think GA, FL, TX, NY won't have another wave. They reached similar level of total case/population and GA, FL, TX have been open for 2 months. Other states have not reached this level of total case/population so it is possible to have another wave. -on the I should have realized that different states have different situations aspect A similar confounding problem is occurring in NYC. Using antibody levels and other inputs, there remains a large variation in 'acquired' immunity levels. In some areas like the Corona (named this way before!) community (ZIP code 11368), a 48.1% percent positive rate is reported. Note: this % was at 51.6% last August when a batch of data came out, suggesting a way to evaluate the expected decrease in reported antibody immunity over time once a relative state of population (herd) immunity has been reached. In other areas (most in Manhattan), like the Upper West Side, the percent positive is now at 12.1% (it was at 12.6% last August). There are reasons for this variation (looking at Borough Park 11219 is also worthwhile to evaluate) but the point of this post is that boroughs and communities are not sealed and absent individual-based or government-based restrictions, these differences would tend to disappear (communicating vessels principle). So, depending on the degree of "openness", one would expect further spread. Different communities within NYC have different situations but the virus does not know that. References: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-antibody-test.html -on the have been open aspect The measure of 'openness' needs to be defined and should include, on top of the gross and bipolar ideological take: -the basic individual behavior changes (masks, distance) applied by the median individual -the general level of mobility and activity (ie Google mobility reports, retail, public transit, physical presence at work etc, credit card usage patterns) If you look above comparing the person riding his boat off the Florida marina and yelling "let's party" to the professional running in Central Park wearing a mask, you may find that there is only a marginal overall difference between the states that are "open" and those that are not. When taking a decision, Yogi Berra suggested the following: "When you come to a fork in the road, take it" and the decision may not be to go right or left; it may mostly be to decide between right and wrong.
DocSnowball Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 3rd wave: I was wrong about the prediction about 20k daily at the end of August. I should have realized that different states have different situations. I still think GA, FL, TX, NY won't have another wave. They reached similar level of total case/population and GA, FL, TX have been open for 2 months. Other states have not reached this level of total case/population so it is possible to have another wave. @muscleman, and others who have market timing investment philosophies: I'm curious about the latest wave of cases and it's impact on market timing. What are the US and European markets correlating with then, because they don't seem to be correlating with this rise in cases, or now with the rising hospitalization and death numbers or even some localized shutdowns? Is there any metric of the pandemic that they are correlating to? Were we just dealing with liquidity issues that the Fed actions improved, or does solvency come into the picture to impact them as the next wave arrives and this drags on?
Spekulatius Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I expect a third wave. Current trends in hospitalization are already trending up and we know that in an epidemic, trends have momentum. Even the Northeast is seeing already and increase in hospitalization. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized These cyclicality / waves we are seeing are not really separate waves, more or less the same wave hitting different states at different times. We are seeing a second wave in Europa however, in particular Spain and Britain are noteworthy, because they were hit hard by the first wave. So second waves are definitely in the cards in the US. I think thanksgiving will be a major driver from increased travel and family gatherings and together with a seasonal trend will cause another spike. How pronounced it’s going to be will be mainly be driven by people behavior.
Peregrine Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I expect a third wave. Current trends in hospitalization are already trending up and we know that in an epidemic, trends have momentum. Even the Northeast is seeing already and increase in hospitalization. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized These cyclicality / waves we are seeing are not really separate waves, more or less the same wave hitting different states at different times. We are seeing a second wave in Europa however, in particular Spain and Britain are noteworthy, because they were hit hard by the first wave. So second waves are definitely in the cards in the US. I think thanksgiving will be a major driver from increased travel and family gatherings and together with a seasonal trend will cause another spike. How pronounced it’s going to be will be mainly be driven by people behavior. It appears that the increased infections are taking place in areas in the country that weren't hit hard in the first place. For example, the increased infections in the UK are taking place in northern UK and not in London and the South. Similar trends happening in other places seeing "second waves".
Viking Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I think most forecasters are calling for positive case counts to slowly continue to increase from here and peak in January at about 3X where they are today. The key driver being seasonality. Other factors are lack of mask wearing and social distancing protocols. - https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend I am starting to wonder if covid is going to be with us for longer (as a serious economic issue) than is generally expected today, perhaps 2 or 3 years? I think most are expecting a vaccine soon and... poof virus issue will disappear and life will get back to normal. Expectations of what the next 6 months or year will look like from a health and economic perspective are all over the map.
Cigarbutt Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Quick take on the situation in Spain, one of the worst Wortformen in this pandemic: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/spain-s-toxic-politics-and-health-crisis-have-got-merkel-worried I expect a third wave. Current trends in hospitalization are already trending up and we know that in an epidemic, trends have momentum. Even the Northeast is seeing already and increase in hospitalization. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized These cyclicality / waves we are seeing are not really separate waves, more or less the same wave hitting different states at different times. We are seeing a second wave in Europa however, in particular Spain and Britain are noteworthy, because they were hit hard by the first wave. So second waves are definitely in the cards in the US. I think thanksgiving will be a major driver from increased travel and family gatherings and together with a seasonal trend will cause another spike. How pronounced it’s going to be will be mainly be driven by people behavior. FWIW, i continue to think that the virus overall (apart from a rise of 20-30% in government debt to GDP) is no big deal from the point of view of the underlying long term economic potential and further waves should be smaller and easier to manage. The outlook on the market (short, mid and long term) may evolve according to the health of the underlying host and i remain extremely bullish long term. Spain is a country i know to some extent and it shares many socio-demographic features with my Canadian province and so, unsurprisingly, shares a similar outcome (very poor) in relation to failures of initial containment, community spread and subsequent waves. Opinion: There is nothing to be proud of. In Spain, mainly around Madrid and Barcelona, it is estimated that about 50% of folks who died in old people's homes died without appropriate medical or even basic care, which is simply hard to reconcile with the status of a developed nation. The reference below shows rankings in terms of mortality data (my province's result is 709 as of now). https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ There are regional variations with the TX, FL, AZ and GA 'champions' focus on the Northeast as the benchmark and the US, in toto, seems to aim to improve its ranking although the competition is high up there on top. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ An important variable to consider here is that poor performers like Spain ('champion' states also) will tend to show over time actualized results that will reveal how they underestimated mortality as the disease runs its course. Interestingly, data from countries like Belgium and the Netherlands may require some downward adjustments. Germany continues to be exceptional in this respect as they report both lower levels of mortality and accurate data. There are some quarters in Spain (like in my province) who have underlined the deep need for questioning and reform but, in both cases, it seems that the both jurisdictions lack institutional depth. It's hard to dissect 'performance' because there are a priori factors, some of which are quite fixed, geography, density etc but for Spain (and my province), there were clear failures in governance, management and coordination. In 2019, some assessed the institutional health security and one of the messages is that staying on top requires incessant renewal. When thinking of Spain and my province, in order to strengthen the host, it's important to have capacity and to willfully get your act together and both aspects will continue to rank relatively poorly. The US has enormous potential capacity but cycles are not dead.
orthopa Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/ There was nothing anyone could have done to prevent the virus as it was here before we knew it and case counts were way, way higher then suspected in Feb and March. Interesting look back based on some conversations from the spring.
Gregmal Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....
orthopa Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets".... India's death rate is quite low. But thats impossible, because its not the 6% that was coming out of China in Jan. Other countries are more successful then the US, but when doing better then the US you cant be TOO successful and not counting all the dead bodies. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/asia/india-covid-death-rate-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html
LC Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets".... Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?).
Gregmal Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets".... Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?). Eh people pushed for whatever fit their narrative. The people pushing for more testing mainly did so because they wanted to bitch about more positives...something that played out as expected. The majority here were adamant there was no covid in January and February, and that the fact there wasn't testing was irrelevant. That things only got out of hand in March/April because of "political" reasons, not because the virus was present before anyone knew it. I was in NYC in mid February and at a packed arena in early March. Life, and people were behaving totally normal. The damage was done through media hysteria and government policy. By and large the coverage and propaganda has turned people into a bunch of pussies. For instance, up until 6 months ago, if you had a runny nose or a cough you sucked it up or took some over the counter stuff and life went on. Now someone has a runny nose and they race to the hospital and are told they must stay in a room for 14 days. They become pariahs simply because they show symptoms of what most consider regular seasonal allergies. I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it.
Viking Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 FWIW, i continue to think that the virus overall (apart from a rise of 20-30% in government debt to GDP) is no big deal from the point of view of the underlying long term economic potential and further waves should be smaller and easier to manage. The outlook on the market (short, mid and long term) may evolve according to the health of the underlying host and i remain extremely bullish long term. I think the key will continue to be the severity and duration of the recession. If the virus is brought under control with a highly effective vaccine the economy could rebound quickly. If the vaccine helps in a more limited way the recession may become more entrenched/structural. Look how long it took for the US economy to recover from the 2008 recession. This recession and recovery could be worse. And all the debt governments are taking on helps in the short run (recession is not as bad) but likely comes at the expense of future growth. (Perhaps all that debt governments everywhere are taking on right now does actually have a cost.) No idea how it all plays out. I am waiting to see what a vaccine looks like and its actual impact on human behaviour. Are people comfortable eating out? Travelling? Do borders open up? Perhaps we get a vaccine and people’s behaviour does not change a great deal in the near term.
LC Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 There are a few posts from back in March: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401471/#msg401471 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401476/#msg401476 That illustrate the desire for widespread, early testing was not just to find more positives and feed the flame. I'll quote myself from 8 months ago: For all we know, widespread testing could show the severity of this virus is totally overblown as critics on this thread have suggested, and therefore the pandemic responses are unwarranted. Our portfolios and emotions could have been spared much stress.
Viking Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 There are a few posts from back in March: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401471/#msg401471 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401476/#msg401476 That illustrate the desire for widespread, early testing was not just to find more positives and feed the flame. I'll quote myself from 8 months ago: For all we know, widespread testing could show the severity of this virus is totally overblown as critics on this thread have suggested, and therefore the pandemic responses are unwarranted. Our portfolios and emotions could have been spared much stress. If you look countries who have had best in class responses to handling the virus (with the best health outcomes and least economic damage) testing was the backbone of their effort. And mask wearing and social distancing. Strong communication with consistent, unified message (lead by science / health professionals). Not rocket science. But still very difficult to execute.
JRM Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 There are a few posts from back in March: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401471/#msg401471 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401476/#msg401476 That illustrate the desire for widespread, early testing was not just to find more positives and feed the flame. I'll quote myself from 8 months ago: For all we know, widespread testing could show the severity of this virus is totally overblown as critics on this thread have suggested, and therefore the pandemic responses are unwarranted. Our portfolios and emotions could have been spared much stress. If you look countries who have had best in class responses to handling the virus (with the best health outcomes and least economic damage) testing was the backbone of their effort. And mask wearing and social distancing. Strong communication with consistent, unified message (lead by science / health professionals). Not rocket science. But still very difficult to execute. Gee, remember when the Surgeon General said masks weren't effective, and that Dr. Fauci guy said the same thing?
Viking Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 There are a few posts from back in March: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401471/#msg401471 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401476/#msg401476 That illustrate the desire for widespread, early testing was not just to find more positives and feed the flame. I'll quote myself from 8 months ago: For all we know, widespread testing could show the severity of this virus is totally overblown as critics on this thread have suggested, and therefore the pandemic responses are unwarranted. Our portfolios and emotions could have been spared much stress. If you look countries who have had best in class responses to handling the virus (with the best health outcomes and least economic damage) testing was the backbone of their effort. And mask wearing and social distancing. Strong communication with consistent, unified message (lead by science / health professionals). Not rocket science. But still very difficult to execute. Gee, remember when the Surgeon General said masks weren't effective, and that Dr. Fauci guy said the same thing? Yes, in the early stages mistakes were made. Lots has been learned since and now it is clearly understood that mask wearing is one of the simplest, yet most effective things people can do to effectively manage the virus and minimize economic disruption. Even Mitch McConnell agrees with this.
Spekulatius Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 There are a few posts from back in March: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401471/#msg401471 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg401476/#msg401476 That illustrate the desire for widespread, early testing was not just to find more positives and feed the flame. I'll quote myself from 8 months ago: For all we know, widespread testing could show the severity of this virus is totally overblown as critics on this thread have suggested, and therefore the pandemic responses are unwarranted. Our portfolios and emotions could have been spared much stress. If you look countries who have had best in class responses to handling the virus (with the best health outcomes and least economic damage) testing was the backbone of their effort. And mask wearing and social distancing. Strong communication with consistent, unified message (lead by science / health professionals). Not rocket science. But still very difficult to execute. Gee, remember when the Surgeon General said masks weren't effective, and that Dr. Fauci guy said the same thing? This is correct and the same mistake was made elsewhere (in Germany for example). If you realize you made a mistake, you should correct it, not double down on false beliefs. It’s no different than investing. I think I posted this in this thread, but the Moment Fauci started to talk about the benefits of mask in those Coronavirus meetings, I saw people at work wearing masks the next day. Nobody ask them to do so, it just happened because at least some people were listening. Then my company started to distribute surgical masks to everyone (they were hard to get initially) and then wearing them became mandatory. No community spread at work so far , unlike what we have seen in the White House. It‘s not bulletproof protection, but together with social distancing rules, this works and stops the spread.
orthopa Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets".... Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?). I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it. Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot.
Viking Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets".... Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?). I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it. Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot. Fortunately, he is rich and likely got the best care available. Does anyone know if testing positive for covid impacts ability/rate when applying for new health insurance coverage (i.e. new job) or when applying for a new life insurance policy? Do we understand what the long term health risks are of catching covid? My guess is health insurance providers and life insurance companies will be motivated to figure this out quickly and get it priced accordingly.
Cigarbutt Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/ In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets".... India's death rate is quite low. But thats impossible, because its not the 6% that was coming out of China in Jan. Other countries are more successful then the US, but when doing better then the US you cant be TOO successful and not counting all the dead bodies. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/asia/india-covid-death-rate-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html There was nothing anyone could have done to prevent the virus as it was here before we knew it and case counts were way, way higher then suspected in Feb and March. Interesting look back based on some conversations from the spring. It is fair to say that health data reporting in India is not as reliable as in some other countries but their age distribution is wildly different (much younger profile). Since age is the major risk factor and since age risk rises exponentially, one can expect that their overall mortality rates will be overall much lower. -For the it was there all along and there was nothing to do about it aspect There is solid and robust evidence concurrent to the initial spread and data revealed over time that the thesis does not make sense. -concurrent work https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2008646 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249414291297464321.html -data over time The thesis does not make sense from a mathematical, epidemiological and logical point of view. @orthopa and Gregmal You realize that you are basically arguing that the earth is flat? Opinion: This thesis cannot be disproved but it can be rejected with a high degree of confidence. ::) The piece in the NEJM mentioned above is interesting because it helps to explain the evolution in Washington State vs what happened elsewhere (look at deaths per million, excess mortality etc and compare to potential outcomes considered prospectively. Suggesting (and maintaining the opinion that) nothing could be done sounds awfully fatalistic and is not supported by evidence.
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