samwise Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 This does not mean that virus is actively shedding from 70-80% of ROW. So, yeah Oz, NZ can live in their bubble by testing everyone who comes into the country. It's not that high load on testing. Admit people who test negative, kick out the ones who test positive, and track or quarantine everyone who enters for incubation period. Is that impossible for them to do long term (3+ years)? Edit: I guess tourism would be mostly screwed though. Yes not 70% are shedding, but a few, or one is enough to restart the fire. Can they keep it up for 3 years? Maybe it’s possible. We can all have our opinions on this. There isn’t really any evidence unless you want to count how many people can stick to a healthy diet.
meiroy Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://www.thelocal.at/20200516/austrias-cafes-and-restaurants-reopen-after-coronavirus-lockdown?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Austria's cafes and restaurants reopen after coronavirus lockdown Yay!
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 The Ohio Prison stats seem to indicate a mortality rate of 0.9% (4321 tested positive, 43 died), allürisoner tested apparently, so that a true rate. The Anti study (N=300) that inferred about 15% of the population had the virus inferred a 0.75% fatality rate. The recent Spanish antibody study estimates that 5% had COVID-19. so that’s 47M x0.05=2.35M infected and with 27.5k dead, that‘s a ~1.1% mortality rate. All those mortality rate are likely to go up because of the long tail of morbidity. The results vary of course but I think ~0.8% is a good estimate for the time being. Some countries are doing much better than which gives me hope. The 0.15% of the Stanford study is likely due to erroneous results skewed by false positives. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/ I am not sure which prison data you are referring to. Here are some samples https://www.inquirer.com/news/coronavirus-testing-montgomery-county-jail-asymptomatic-philadelphia-prisons-20200428.html Montgomery County’s jail tested every inmate for COVID-19 — and found 30 times more cases than previously known "171 of those positive inmates exhibited no symptoms at the time their tests were administered." They had 177 test positive of which 171 asympatomatic again confirming Stanford study that there are many asymptomatic cases. Its just that all countries test only with symptoms that we have high CFR. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/25/coronavirus-testing-prisons-reveals-hidden-asymptomatic-infections/3003307001/ Mass virus testing in state prisons reveals hidden asymptomatic infections; feds join effort More than 90% of the newly diagnosed inmates displayed no symptoms, https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-prisons-asymptomatic-8daaaa08-b53e-4368-adb7-88b7d93efece.html 96% of nearly 3,300 inmates with coronavirus were asymptomatic, survey shows https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms. I can go on...but the primary conclusion of Stanford study that when we are calculating case fatality rate after testing mostly symptomatic suspected patients, we are missing a lot of asymptomatic infected carriers which would give much smaller IFR. The WHO said 3.5% CFR with low asymptomatic rate which would make 3.5% IFR. WHO still says there are very few asymptomatic covid infected and never updated the 3.5% CFR. So, the prison data infact does support Stanford findings.
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 "Even if you died of a clear alternate cause but you had COVID at the same time it's still listed as a COVID death." Illinois' Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike says people are listed as a coronavirus death even if they died of alternative causes.
Spekulatius Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 The Ohio Prison stats seem to indicate a mortality rate of 0.9% (4321 tested positive, 43 died), allürisoner tested apparently, so that a true rate. The Anti study (N=300) that inferred about 15% of the population had the virus inferred a 0.75% fatality rate. The recent Spanish antibody study estimates that 5% had COVID-19. so that’s 47M x0.05=2.35M infected and with 27.5k dead, that‘s a ~1.1% mortality rate. All those mortality rate are likely to go up because of the long tail of morbidity. The results vary of course but I think ~0.8% is a good estimate for the time being. Some countries are doing much better than which gives me hope. The 0.15% of the Stanford study is likely due to erroneous results skewed by false positives. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/ I am not sure which prison data you are referring to. Here are some samples https://www.inquirer.com/news/coronavirus-testing-montgomery-county-jail-asymptomatic-philadelphia-prisons-20200428.html Montgomery County’s jail tested every inmate for COVID-19 — and found 30 times more cases than previously known "171 of those positive inmates exhibited no symptoms at the time their tests were administered." They had 177 test positive of which 171 asympatomatic again confirming Stanford study that there are many asymptomatic cases. Its just that all countries test only with symptoms that we have high CFR. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/25/coronavirus-testing-prisons-reveals-hidden-asymptomatic-infections/3003307001/ Mass virus testing in state prisons reveals hidden asymptomatic infections; feds join effort More than 90% of the newly diagnosed inmates displayed no symptoms, https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-prisons-asymptomatic-8daaaa08-b53e-4368-adb7-88b7d93efece.html 96% of nearly 3,300 inmates with coronavirus were asymptomatic, survey shows https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms. I can go on...but the primary conclusion of Stanford study that when we are calculating case fatality rate after testing mostly symptomatic suspected patients, we are missing a lot of asymptomatic infected carriers which would give much smaller IFR. The WHO said 3.5% CFR with low asymptomatic rate which would make 3.5% IFR. WHO still says there are very few asymptomatic covid infected and never updated the 3.5% CFR. So, the prison data infact does support Stanford findings. I am referring to Ohio prison data. Pundits mention that 95% were asymptotic (which means exactly what with prisoners), but they still have around a 1% fatality rate. So ~20% of the symptomic prisoners died.
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 The Ohio Prison stats seem to indicate a mortality rate of 0.9% (4321 tested positive, 43 died), allürisoner tested apparently, so that a true rate. The Anti study (N=300) that inferred about 15% of the population had the virus inferred a 0.75% fatality rate. The recent Spanish antibody study estimates that 5% had COVID-19. so that’s 47M x0.05=2.35M infected and with 27.5k dead, that‘s a ~1.1% mortality rate. All those mortality rate are likely to go up because of the long tail of morbidity. The results vary of course but I think ~0.8% is a good estimate for the time being. Some countries are doing much better than which gives me hope. The 0.15% of the Stanford study is likely due to erroneous results skewed by false positives. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/ I am not sure which prison data you are referring to. Here are some samples https://www.inquirer.com/news/coronavirus-testing-montgomery-county-jail-asymptomatic-philadelphia-prisons-20200428.html Montgomery County’s jail tested every inmate for COVID-19 — and found 30 times more cases than previously known "171 of those positive inmates exhibited no symptoms at the time their tests were administered." They had 177 test positive of which 171 asympatomatic again confirming Stanford study that there are many asymptomatic cases. Its just that all countries test only with symptoms that we have high CFR. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/25/coronavirus-testing-prisons-reveals-hidden-asymptomatic-infections/3003307001/ Mass virus testing in state prisons reveals hidden asymptomatic infections; feds join effort More than 90% of the newly diagnosed inmates displayed no symptoms, https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-prisons-asymptomatic-8daaaa08-b53e-4368-adb7-88b7d93efece.html 96% of nearly 3,300 inmates with coronavirus were asymptomatic, survey shows https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms. I can go on...but the primary conclusion of Stanford study that when we are calculating case fatality rate after testing mostly symptomatic suspected patients, we are missing a lot of asymptomatic infected carriers which would give much smaller IFR. The WHO said 3.5% CFR with low asymptomatic rate which would make 3.5% IFR. WHO still says there are very few asymptomatic covid infected and never updated the 3.5% CFR. So, the prison data infact does support Stanford findings. I am referring to Ohio prison data. Pundits mention that 95% were asymptotic (which means exactly what with prisoners), but they still have around a 1% fatality rate. So ~20% of the symptomic prisoners died. I am not sure which prison you are mentioning. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/nearly-80-of-inmates-have-covid-19-at-two-ohio-prisons At Marion Correctional Institution, 2,011 inmates of about 2,500 at the facility have tested positive for COVID-19, two of whom have died, as of Wednesday. At Pickaway Correctional Institution, 1,555 inmates of roughly 2,000 inside are infected. Ten inmates have died from COVID-19, as of Tuesday The two prisons house inmates at higher risk to complications from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. A state prisons spokeswoman said Wednesday that Marion houses “a high number” of older individuals, many of whom have pre-existing health conditions. Pickaway houses the prisons’ long term care center, similar to a nursing home. So lets say they are both worst case scenarios for prisons. Total 12 died out of 3566 (2011 at Marion + 1555 at Pickaway) gives 0.3%. These are two correctional facilities in Ohio of older people with pre-existing conditions.
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 The Ohio Prison stats seem to indicate a mortality rate of 0.9% (4321 tested positive, 43 died), allürisoner tested apparently, so that a true rate. The Anti study (N=300) that inferred about 15% of the population had the virus inferred a 0.75% fatality rate. The recent Spanish antibody study estimates that 5% had COVID-19. so that’s 47M x0.05=2.35M infected and with 27.5k dead, that‘s a ~1.1% mortality rate. All those mortality rate are likely to go up because of the long tail of morbidity. The results vary of course but I think ~0.8% is a good estimate for the time being. Some countries are doing much better than which gives me hope. The 0.15% of the Stanford study is likely due to erroneous results skewed by false positives. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/ I am not sure which prison data you are referring to. Here are some samples https://www.inquirer.com/news/coronavirus-testing-montgomery-county-jail-asymptomatic-philadelphia-prisons-20200428.html Montgomery County’s jail tested every inmate for COVID-19 — and found 30 times more cases than previously known "171 of those positive inmates exhibited no symptoms at the time their tests were administered." They had 177 test positive of which 171 asympatomatic again confirming Stanford study that there are many asymptomatic cases. Its just that all countries test only with symptoms that we have high CFR. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/25/coronavirus-testing-prisons-reveals-hidden-asymptomatic-infections/3003307001/ Mass virus testing in state prisons reveals hidden asymptomatic infections; feds join effort More than 90% of the newly diagnosed inmates displayed no symptoms, https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-prisons-asymptomatic-8daaaa08-b53e-4368-adb7-88b7d93efece.html 96% of nearly 3,300 inmates with coronavirus were asymptomatic, survey shows https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms. I can go on...but the primary conclusion of Stanford study that when we are calculating case fatality rate after testing mostly symptomatic suspected patients, we are missing a lot of asymptomatic infected carriers which would give much smaller IFR. The WHO said 3.5% CFR with low asymptomatic rate which would make 3.5% IFR. WHO still says there are very few asymptomatic covid infected and never updated the 3.5% CFR. So, the prison data infact does support Stanford findings. I am referring to Ohio prison data. Pundits mention that 95% were asymptotic (which means exactly what with prisoners), but they still have around a 1% fatality rate. So ~20% of the symptomic prisoners died. I am not sure which prison you are mentioning. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/nearly-80-of-inmates-have-covid-19-at-two-ohio-prisons At Marion Correctional Institution, 2,011 inmates of about 2,500 at the facility have tested positive for COVID-19, two of whom have died, as of Wednesday. At Pickaway Correctional Institution, 1,555 inmates of roughly 2,000 inside are infected. Ten inmates have died from COVID-19, as of Tuesday The two prisons house inmates at higher risk to complications from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. A state prisons spokeswoman said Wednesday that Marion houses “a high number” of older individuals, many of whom have pre-existing health conditions. Pickaway houses the prisons’ long term care center, similar to a nursing home. So lets say they are both worst case scenarios for prisons. Total 12 died out of 3566 (2011 at Marion + 1555 at Pickaway) gives 0.3%. These are two correctional facilities in Ohio of older people with pre-existing conditions. Updating with recent deaths at Marion and Pickaway: https://www.daily-jeff.com/news/20200516/lawsuit-seeks-release-of-15000-plus-ohio-inmates-amid-coronavirus-outbreak including 14 at Marion and 35 at Pickaway, which houses the prison equivalent of a nursing home for chronically ill and older inmates. Taking (14+35)/3566 gives 1.4% for prison inmates "equivalent of a nursing home for chronically ill and older inmates" in Ohio.
Liberty Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed When the history is written of how America handled the global era’s first real pandemic, March 6 will leap out of the timeline. That was the day Donald Trump visited the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Read whole thing...
Liberty Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 HCC: Trump’s mindset became increasingly surreal. He began to tout hydroxychloroquine as a cure for Covid-19. On March 19, at a regular televised briefing, which he conducted daily for five weeks, often rambling for more than two hours, he depicted the antimalarial drug as a potential magic bullet. It could be “one of the biggest game-changers in the history of medicine”, he later tweeted. The president’s leap of faith, which was inspired by Fox News anchors, notably Laura Ingraham, and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani, none of whom have a medical background, turned Washington’s bureaucracy upside down. Scientists who demurred were punished. In April, Rick Bright, the federal scientist in charge of developing a vaccine – arguably the most urgent role in government – was removed after blocking efforts to promote hydroxychloroquine. Most clinical trials have shown the drug has no positive impact on Covid-19 patients and can harm people with heart problems. “I was pressured to let politics and cronyism drive decisions over the opinions of the best scientists we have in government,” Bright said in a statement. In a whistleblower complaint, he said he was pressured to send millions of dollars worth of contracts to a company controlled by a friend of Jared Kushner. When he refused, he was fired. The US Department of Health and Human Services denied Bright’s allegations. Other scientists have taken note of Bright’s fate. During the Ebola outbreak in 2014, when Obama’s administration sent 3,000 US military personnel to Africa to fight the epidemic, the CDC held a daily briefing about the state of progress. It has not held one since early March. Scientists across Washington are terrified of saying anything that contradicts Trump. “The way to keep your job is to out-loyal everyone else, which means you have to tolerate quackery,” says Anthony Scaramucci, an estranged former Trump adviser, who was briefly his White House head of communications. “You have to flatter him in public and flatter him in private. Above all, you must never make him feel ignorant.” ... “I can’t even get my calls returned,” says Garrett. “The CDC has led the response to every disease for decades. Now it has vanished from view.” A former senior Trump official says: “People turn into wusses around Trump. If you stand up to him, you’ll never get back in. What you see in public is what you get in private. He is exactly the same.” What a terrible way to run anything, much less a large-scale medical-scientific public-health emergency.
LongHaul Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed When the history is written of how America handled the global era’s first real pandemic, March 6 will leap out of the timeline. That was the day Donald Trump visited the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Read whole thing... That was a hellava article. Thanks.
Liberty Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 "Neither Fauci or Birx have had interviews in over 11 days. Neither were allowed to speak at press conference- they were told to stand silently behind Trump. Like puppets. Not okay. " https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/16/coronavirus-health-experts-birx-fauci-trump It happens to them all... They think, I have to try to serve my country, I can do more good on the inside than the outside. So they swallow turds for a while, they're told that if they just hang around they'll have some influence, until they have been fully used up by the sociopath, and then they are discarded and blamed. Tillerson, Kelly, Mattis, Cohn... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations
Liberty Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 “Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it” ???
Jurgis Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 “Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it” ??? So far the "we just shouldn’t do it” has been resounding success in the markets. ::)
Gregmal Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/16/staten-island-reopening-rally/ Its funny, who'd have envisioned a scenario where the socialist politicians get to lockdown law abiding citizens but free jailed criminals? NY, NY...
Viking Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed When the history is written of how America handled the global era’s first real pandemic, March 6 will leap out of the timeline. That was the day Donald Trump visited the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Read whole thing... That was a hellava article. Thanks. Yes. It is an incredibly balanced piece and that is what makes it so frightening. It captures in great detail what has happened in the Trump administration. Given we are only at the start of the second inning of this pandemic (according to Scott Gottleib) the US is so screwed moving forward. What is really fascinating to me is it really does not matter what Trump does... he can screw over who ever he wants... his base just does not care what evil he does. Or how incompetent his actions are. Or what the ramifications are. ‘The alternative is worse.’ Amazing. And such complete bullshit. I think that must have been what Germans were saying in Germany back in 1938. And then Hitler proceeded to destroy their country. ————————- Article’s conclusion: “Trump is caught in a box which keeps getting smaller,” says George Conway, a Republican lawyer who is married to Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s senior counsellor. “In my view he is a sociopath and a malignant narcissist. When a person suffering from these disorders feels the world closing in on them, their tendencies get worse. They lash out and fantasise and lose any ability to think rationally.” Conway is known for taunting Trump on Twitter (to great effect, it should be added: Trump often retaliates). Yet without exception, everyone I interviewed, including the most ardent Trump loyalists, made a similar point to Conway. Trump is deaf to advice, said one. He is his own worst enemy, said another. He only listens to family, said a third. He is mentally imbalanced, said a fourth. America, in other words, should brace itself for a turbulent six months ahead – with no assurance of a safe landing.
cwericb Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 It is quite obvious to anyone with even the slightest knowledge of psychology that Trump is mentally ill. So what does that say about those who continue to support him and may vote for him again? It is not much wonder that the “make America great again” has been such a dismal failure. So that is fine from their point of view, but the real problem is that these people are going to take a lot of others down with them.
Liberty Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-15/will-i-get-coronavirus-at-the-grocery-store-unlikely
Liberty Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 “Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it” ??? So far the "we just shouldn’t do it” has been resounding success in the markets. ::) Kushner wants to move markets, but he isn’t even at first level thinking yet. He’s at 0.5-level thinking.
Jurgis Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 “Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it” ??? So far the "we just shouldn’t do it” has been resounding success in the markets. ::) Kushner isn’t even at first level thinking yet. He’s at 0.5-level thinking. It's not the level of thinking, it's who your father(-in-law) is.* * First axiom of any banana republic
John Hjorth Posted May 17, 2020 Posted May 17, 2020 It is quite obvious to anyone with even the slightest knowledge of psychology that Trump is mentally ill. So what does that say about those who continue to support him and may vote for him again? It is not much wonder that the “make America great again” has been such a dismal failure. So that is fine from their point of view, but the real problem is that these people are going to take a lot of others down with them. cwericb, I personally consider your post - generally & on overall basis - in line with what Vinod has posted in [as far as I remember] this topic not so long ago. The real question - at least to me - is : Who has the burden on their shoulders of the responsibility to actually act on the situation, if the incumbent POTUS - for reasons of mental illness is not fit & proper? -What does i.e. the US Constitution [or other legislation] say? [Personally, I don't know.]
cubsfan Posted May 17, 2020 Posted May 17, 2020 It is quite obvious to anyone with even the slightest knowledge of psychology that Trump is mentally ill. So what does that say about those who continue to support him and may vote for him again? It is not much wonder that the “make America great again” has been such a dismal failure. So that is fine from their point of view, but the real problem is that these people are going to take a lot of others down with them. You get the prize for the most idiotic post of the month. "Trump is mentally ill" - sure and so are his supporters. No exaggeration there...
LC Posted May 17, 2020 Posted May 17, 2020 Thanks for posting, Liberty. Good article to summarize criticism of America's response. In April, Rick Bright, the federal scientist in charge of developing a vaccine – arguably the most urgent role in government – was removed after blocking efforts to promote hydroxychloroquine. In a whistleblower complaint, he said he was pressured to send millions of dollars worth of contracts to a company controlled by a friend of Jared Kushner. When he refused, he was fired. The US Department of Health and Human Services denied Bright’s allegations. During the Ebola outbreak in 2014, when Obama’s administration sent 3,000 US military personnel to Africa to fight the epidemic, the CDC held a daily briefing about the state of progress. It has not held one since early March Trump has Made America the Greatest (victim of coronavirus)
cwericb Posted May 17, 2020 Posted May 17, 2020 "You get the prize for the most idiotic post of the month. "Trump is mentally ill ..." And you don't agree? And where did I say "so is his supporters?"
Viking Posted May 17, 2020 Posted May 17, 2020 It is quite obvious to anyone with even the slightest knowledge of psychology that Trump is mentally ill. So what does that say about those who continue to support him and may vote for him again? It is not much wonder that the “make America great again” has been such a dismal failure. So that is fine from their point of view, but the real problem is that these people are going to take a lot of others down with them. cwericb, I personally consider your post - generally & on overall basis - in line with what Vinod has posted in [as far as I remember] this topic not so long ago. The real question - at least to me - is : Who has the burden on their shoulders of the responsibility to actually act on the situation, if the incumbent POTUS - for reasons of mental illness is not fit & proper? -What does i.e. the US Constitution [or other legislation] say? [Personally, I don't know.] John, my view is the Senate Republicans are the key enablers of Trump. The problem is they are too afraid. So what the US essentially has right now resembles a version of an absolute monarchy. Trump is in the process of re-making the Presidency in his image. Loyalty is the only requirement. The interesting thing is the man is only getting started...
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