Cigarbutt Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/amid-the-coronavirus-crisis-a-regimen-for-reentry Interesting take on the parallel to be made between containment of nosocomial spread and the exit scenarios. Dr. Gawande describes the four-pillared combination therapy (hygiene measures, screening, distancing and masks) and adds the toughest one to achieve: culture change. This still leaves open-ended the uncomfortable situation where we are building this plane while it's flying and with still no visible landing site. Animal spirits will eventually prevail.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though. We should draft them to do so. Then they can be draft dodgers. This is a straw man argument. Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood. I have heard minimum complaints about masks. No, it's not a straw man argument. It is a joke. The straw man here is bringing up lockdown. Whether people oppose masks or lockdown more is a separate topic. The two are linked anyhow; wear a mask and thereby slowing the spread will likely get us closer to convincing others to agree to lift lockdown. Where I live, the lockdown is unpopular and a minority of people are wearing a mask at the grocery store. I live in Trump land where most do not wear masks, and labeling them 'draft dodgers' would help them realize that they are not answering their country when it calls. I mean, the economy is bleeding money and individual vanity/comfort is still winning the day. Masks is more like requiring the hippies to wear a shirt and shoes into the restaurant (the draft dodgers joke). I live in Ohio and whenever I go out (the state could go either way in the election), the vast majority of people have masks. You live in California (hardcore liberal) and they don't have masks? :o Most people are not wearing masks in Placer County where I live. Hardcore liberal? The density of urban areas explains that perception, but look at this: https://www.ppic.org/content/images/PoliticalGeogFigure-4_web.png
LC Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Focusing on the important things: https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts The definition of lying to some of the people all of the time. So trashy. Well, they can't fake the all-count deaths, at least (yet). Of which we have ~65,000 excess deaths, broken down by weeks ending: 3/28: +4,300 4/4: +12,900 4/11: +20,000 4/18: +17,500 4/25: +10,900
Liberty Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Focusing on the important things: https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts The definition of lying to some of the people all of the time. So trashy. Well, they can't fake the all-count deaths, at least (yet). Of which we have ~65,000 excess deaths, broken down by weeks ending: 3/28: +4,300 4/4: +12,900 4/11: +20,000 4/18: +17,500 4/25: +10,900 Trump has always only cared about how things look. That's why he gave gossip to journalists for decades with the only condition that they refer to him as "billionaire Donald Trump" even if he wasn't a billionaire, played a successful businessman on TV even though his businesses were terribly run. He wanted Ukraine to announce an investigation into Biden, didn't care too much about the result, talks like a tough guy even though he's always run away from danger and has the thinnest snowflake skin around (remember when he sent photos of his hands to that journalist for years after he mentioned he had small hands?). Wanted photos ops with medical ships and at some Apple factory in Texas, didn't care that the ship wouldn't be used or the factory already existed and he wasn't really opening it, etc. This is more of the same. He figures if he can change the number, that'll be good enough and much easier than changing the actual health crisis, which he doesn't have the intelligence, competence, discipline, follow-through, empathy, team, etc, to affect much in a positive way.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Focusing on the important things: https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts The definition of lying to some of the people all of the time. So trashy. Well, they can't fake the all-count deaths, at least (yet). Of which we have ~65,000 excess deaths, broken down by weeks ending: 3/28: +4,300 4/4: +12,900 4/11: +20,000 4/18: +17,500 4/25: +10,900 Trump has always only cared about how things look. That's why he gave gossip to journalists for decades with the only condition that they refer to him as "billionaire Donald Trump" even if he wasn't a billionaire, played a successful businessman on TV even though his businesses were terribly run. He wanted Ukraine to announce an investigation into Biden, didn't care too much about the result, talks like a tough guy even though he's always run away from danger and has the thinnest snowflake skin around (remember when he sent photos of his hands to that journalist for years after he mentioned he had small hands?). Wanted photos ops with medical ships and at some Apple factory in Texas, didn't care that the ship wouldn't be used or the factory already existed and he wasn't really opening it, etc. This is more of the same. He figures if he can change the number, that'll be good enough and much easier than changing the actual health crisis, which he doesn't have the intelligence, competence, discipline, follow-through, empathy, team, etc, to affect much in a positive way. I think one of his best was his "Liberate Michigan!" tweet on April 17th, when his own "stay at home" guideline wasn't set to expire until April 30th. On April 1st his Surgeon General told the media that he advised America to think of it as a Federal "order" to stay at home. In other words, he blames the economy on the governor when he did nothing but encourage the entire nation to stay at home.
Liberty Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 There it is: TRUMP: "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases." Lying about testing more than elsewhere too..
clutch Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 why do you think many people don't trust "experts" on TV? Because the media does things like this... "Greta Thunberg added to CNN’s expert coronavirus panel, Twitter erupts" https://nypost.com/2020/05/13/greta-thunberg-added-to-cnn-expert-covid-19-panel-twitter-erupts/
LongHaul Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others.
Gregmal Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others. Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult.
LongHaul Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 An exceptional article on Covid 19 https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Liberty Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Magical thinking: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/trump-downplays-need-for-coronavirus-vaccine-itll-go-away-at-some-point.html President Trump said the U.S. will overcome the coronavirus crisis with or without an effective vaccine, saying that the disease will “go away at some point” either way. “If we don’t, we’re going to be like so many other cases where you had a problem come in, it’ll go away at some point, it’ll go away,” Trump said. Trump’s remarks downplaying the need for a vaccine came at an event unveiling his administration’s beefed-up efforts to fast-track the development and distribution of a vaccine for Covid-19.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others. Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult. Why is a business license required if it is a right and not a privilege? Can the Health Department suspend a license for business? If so, then it's a flimsy 'right' at best. Covid-19 is a public health risk. Masks are the mitigation; play ball or be shut down. No shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service.
Castanza Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others. Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult. Why is a business license required if it is a right and not a privilege? Can the Health Department suspend a license for business? If so, then it's a flimsy 'right' at best. Covid-19 is a public health risk. Masks are the mitigation; play ball or be shut down. No shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service. Al Capone "play ball or be shut down"
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Five sailors on the U.S. aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-05-15-coronavirus-news-n1207106/ncrd1208141#liveBlogHeader Then this from an overrated physician turned politician (those who can't do, legislate?): "I have immunity. I've already had the virus, so I can't get it again and I can't give it to anybody," Paul, R-Ky., told reporters, referring to his March diagnosis. "I can't get it again, nor can I transmit. So of all the people you'll meet here, I'm about the only safe person in Washington." https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-forgoes-mask-claims-215100615.html
John Hjorth Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Five sailors on the U.S. aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-05-15-coronavirus-news-n1207106/ncrd1208141#liveBlogHeader Then this from an overrated physician turned politician (those who can't do, legislate?): "I have immunity. I've already had the virus, so I can't get it again and I can't give it to anybody," Paul, R-Ky., told reporters, referring to his March diagnosis. "I can't get it again, nor can I transmit. So of all the people you'll meet here, I'm about the only safe person in Washington." https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-forgoes-mask-claims-215100615.html Thank you for a hilarious post, ERICOPOLY, Somehow I think of it as token of : 1. You live in a representative democracy [, at least somehow], combined with : 2. Ignorance & stupidity is still alive & kicking everywhere around the world.
Guest cherzeca Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Five sailors on the U.S. aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-05-15-coronavirus-news-n1207106/ncrd1208141#liveBlogHeader Then this from an overrated physician turned politician (those who can't do, legislate?): "I have immunity. I've already had the virus, so I can't get it again and I can't give it to anybody," Paul, R-Ky., told reporters, referring to his March diagnosis. "I can't get it again, nor can I transmit. So of all the people you'll meet here, I'm about the only safe person in Washington." https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-forgoes-mask-claims-215100615.html the second positive test results from remaining virus dna in blood. best view (yes, not "proven") is that just like other cornonaviruses, immunity lasts for a year to two years
Liberty Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 This looks pretty bad: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower
LongHaul Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others. Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult. I would make the analogy: someone with a gun that is allowed to shoot the gun around randomly and if he happens to kill someone so what. One could make the case that if you don't like the risk just stay inside. There are essentially 2 realistic choices: 1. No Mandatory masks and many more people die and the economy goes to crap. 2. Mandatory mask wearing: and many more people live and the economy is much better. I don't think it's right that society is creating an unsafe environment for the vast majority by allowing people to just not wear masks. Also it is a very costly path to not have mandatory masks.
Gregmal Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. You are entitled to your freedom. You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others. Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult. I would make the analogy: someone with a gun that is allowed to shoot the gun around randomly and if he happens to kill someone so what. One could make the case that if you don't like the risk just stay inside. There are essentially 2 realistic choices: 1. No Mandatory masks and many more people die and the economy goes to crap. 2. Mandatory mask wearing: and many more people live and the economy is much better. I don't think it's right that society is creating an unsafe environment for the vast majority by allowing people to just not wear masks. Also it is a very costly path to not have mandatory masks. Oh no, I agree. Im totally in the wear a mask camp. Was just referring to the forced business closures. Most of the businesses Ive seen that are open have mandatory mask policies anyway.
Spekulatius Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 In this, the expert article, also referring to the now famous church coir incident, He estimates that: ~50% transmission are due to aerosols , risk factors: closed areas with bad air circulation and many people on it, speaking and even worse singing 40% larger droplets 10% smear/touch So hand washing may not help that much. Mask helps some, but only N95 helps against aerosols. Staying and meeting other folks outside is probably best. The Church cases are intriguing. One infected person in a large room could infect 30 s with just one exposure. The fact that singing apparently lead to more aerosol emission is likely a contributing factor. This is all a bit speculative, but it does make sense. https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/covid-19-belastete-troepfchen-machen-geschlossene-raeume-zu-infektionsherden-a-7522885d-7553-4acc-ac5d-ac603552ed06 https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 This looks pretty bad: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower Liberty, I am not sure what sounds bad. In this times while the world is shut down, a test that takes $200K, a professor from Stanford had to take 5000$ to do the test which everyone agrees needs to be done? They didn't have any funds from the 2 trillion dollars to do the study? The plan was to keep making decisions without knowing the real extent of spread and who is getting how much? That is what sounds bad. Many studies (and I posted recently on this) confirmed Stanford result. The studies confirmed the Stanford study results, that there are lot of asymptomatic carriers and the infection fatality rate is much lower than thought before. The buzzfeed is an attack article because it fails to mention I believe a dozen more studies done since then by different teams across world, many of them are reputed hospitals or professors. Buzzfeed "forgets" to mention this and goes on attacking a scientist for doing his job which frankly, the task force should have done long back. We are really going back to Galileos times attacking the scientist rather than looking at the result and its confirmation in multiple studies and its consequences of this new information. This attitude of Buzzfeed can take us to medieval ages and it is really shameful article.
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 Five sailors on the U.S. aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-05-15-coronavirus-news-n1207106/ncrd1208141#liveBlogHeader Then this from an overrated physician turned politician (those who can't do, legislate?): "I have immunity. I've already had the virus, so I can't get it again and I can't give it to anybody," Paul, R-Ky., told reporters, referring to his March diagnosis. "I can't get it again, nor can I transmit. So of all the people you'll meet here, I'm about the only safe person in Washington." https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-forgoes-mask-claims-215100615.html Eric, in the Senate hearing, Dr. Fauci seemed upbeat about Vaccines, talking about "multiple winners". But if there is re-infection of already infected people there won't be a vaccine. Is Dr. Fauci wrong. There won't be vaccines? Beyond Vaccines, if as Dr. Fauci says the infection will come back in fall, what is the plan? Is the plan is to go through several cycles of lockdown and then if there is no vaccine, then get to herd immunity?
Spekulatius Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 The Ohio Prison stats seem to indicate a mortality rate of 0.9% (4321 tested positive, 43 died), allürisoner tested apparently, so that a true rate. The Anti study (N=300) that inferred about 15% of the population had the virus inferred a 0.75% fatality rate. The recent Spanish antibody study estimates that 5% had COVID-19. so that’s 47M x0.05=2.35M infected and with 27.5k dead, that‘s a ~1.1% mortality rate. All those mortality rate are likely to go up because of the long tail of morbidity. The results vary of course but I think ~0.8% is a good estimate for the time being. Some countries are doing much better than which gives me hope. The 0.15% of the Stanford study is likely due to erroneous results skewed by false positives. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/
Investor20 Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 The Ohio Prison stats seem to indicate a mortality rate of 0.9% (4321 tested positive, 43 died), allürisoner tested apparently, so that a true rate. The Anti study (N=300) that inferred about 15% of the population had the virus inferred a 0.75% fatality rate. The recent Spanish antibody study estimates that 5% had COVID-19. so that’s 47M x0.05=2.35M infected and with 27.5k dead, that‘s a ~1.1% mortality rate. All those mortality rate are likely to go up because of the long tail of morbidity. The results vary of course but I think ~0.8% is a good estimate for the time being. Some countries are doing much better than which gives me hope. The 0.15% of the Stanford study is likely due to erroneous results skewed by false positives. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/spanish-antibody-study-points/ Its true there are different numbers coming from different places. Miami-Dade The preliminary results imply an infection fatality rate of 0.2 percent, similar to estimates from two California studies. https://reason.com/2020/04/26/miami-dade-antibody-tests-suggests-covid-19-infections-exceed-confirmed-cases-by-a-factor-of-16/ New York: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-daily-coronavirus-update-with-first-antibody-test-results That would indicate a statewide death rate of about 0.5 percent. Denmark: a combined IFR in patients younger than 70 is estimated at 82 per 100,000 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075291v1 82 in 100,000 would be 0.082% Germany: In Gangelt, the IFR after the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is 0.37 percent," https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-team-covid-infection-fatality.html The MLB study published by same Stanford team had zero fatalities with 5000+ samples. Zero IFR with that sample or too small sample of 5000+? They also had low infection rate of 0.7%. https://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/MLB-antibody-study-7-percent-exposed-to-15260314.php Its true if you look at Bronx, Spain or Italy, the IFR may be high. Santa Clara or Miami, the IFR are lower. It may be a reflection of local demographics to how much the hospitals are overwhelmed.
meiroy Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-16/a-104-year-old-south-korean-woman-recovers-from-coronavirus?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business A 104-Year-Old South Korean Woman Recovers From Coronavirus Woo!
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