Coronavirus

[Jurgis]

As Liberty quoted...

 

Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great

 

And if you still don’t think this guy is nuts he went on to say..

 

“Today, for some reason, she tested positive...: For some reason??

 

Well DUH!

 

She's Pence's secretary... so it's a virgin infection. Hallelujah!

[Liberty]

https://apnews.com/9c4d5284ba4769d3b98aa05232201f88

 

“ AP Exclusive: Top White House officials buried CDC report”

 

The trove of emails show the nation’s top public health experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spending weeks working on guidance to help the country deal with a public health emergency, only to see their work quashed by political appointees with little explanation.

[Guest]

More hate from MSM:

 

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/jimmy-kimmel-mike-pence-empy-boxes-clip

[Spekulatius]

This doesn’t sound that great:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/china-study-finds-5-to-15-of-covid-19-cases-are-reactivated

[meiroy]

"There have been 73 reported cases in NY of children getting severely ill with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock-like syndrome.

 

On Thursday, a 5-year-old boy passed away from these complications, believed to be caused by COVID-19.

 

DOH is investigating."

 

 

If it's really due to a new mutation in the virus and there's no clear way to prevent/treat it, it's pretty much game over. There will be no reopening.  The economy tanks down. The current administration is completely incapable of handling anything like this.

 

This is the one thing I'd keep very close attention to.

 

[Spekulatius]

"There have been 73 reported cases in NY of children getting severely ill with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock-like syndrome.

 

On Thursday, a 5-year-old boy passed away from these complications, believed to be caused by COVID-19.

 

DOH is investigating."

 

 

If it's really due to a new mutation in the virus and there's no clear way to prevent/treat it, it's pretty much game over. There will be no reopening.  The economy tanks down. The current administration is completely incapable of handling anything like this.

 

This is the one thing I'd keep very close attention to.

 

I don’t think it’s a mutation of the virus causing this. It’s more likely that with so many cases and 100 thousands and of infections, some people or kids in this case have a different and adverse reaction to this virus, one of them with similar symptoms than Kawasaki’s disease.

[meiroy]

"There have been 73 reported cases in NY of children getting severely ill with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock-like syndrome.

 

On Thursday, a 5-year-old boy passed away from these complications, believed to be caused by COVID-19.

 

DOH is investigating."

 

 

If it's really due to a new mutation in the virus and there's no clear way to prevent/treat it, it's pretty much game over. There will be no reopening.  The economy tanks down. The current administration is completely incapable of handling anything like this.

 

This is the one thing I'd keep very close attention to.

 

I don’t think it’s a mutation of the virus causing this. It’s more likely that with so many cases and 100 thousands and of infections, some people or kids in this case have a different and adverse reaction to this virus, one of them with similar symptoms than Kawasaki’s disease.

 

That's quite possible. Let's hope so.  If that is the case, of course, this should have happened all along. I'm not saying it's a mutation, just that it's something to keep an eye on.

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

 

Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”

 

He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected.

 

But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

 

[John Hjorth]

JAMA Network [May 7^th 2020] : Clinical Characteristics and Results of Semen Tests Among Men With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

 

Some cherry picking in the Discussion section :

 

In this cohort study, we found that SARS-CoV-2 can be present in the semen of patients with COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 may still be detected in the semen of recovering patients. ...

 

I wonder what the doctors among us here on CoBF get out of this. Very small sample size though [which I don't even know if matters here]. It reads scary to me as a layman.

[Spekulatius]

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

 

Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”

 

He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected.

 

But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

 

The Swedish models isn’t different than the US model effectively except the Swedes do with intend what the US does wby accident and of course the Swedes have a much better outcome (no collapse of their health care system in Stockholm vs NYC).

 

What I do not get is - even if Stockholm reaches heard immunity until fall, that’s only 10% of their population (Stockholm has ~1M people vs 10.3M Swedes), so they still will have 10x more cases overall when Stockholm is done.

 

NYC probably reaches some level of heard immunity too, and possibly some hard hit areas in the NE (Boston, Connecticut), but again that’s only a small part of the US population.

 

There is still a lot of uninfected humans in both countries to work through. If that’s our strategy anyhow, how about estimating some numbers. US 340M people, let say we infect 60% with a 0.75% mortality rate and get there without crashing the health care system somehow. That’s 1.53M dead by my math which needs to be seen relative to the ~2.8M natural death rate in the US.

 

Maybe that’s what it is, but I have not seen  this spelled out in a WH meeting - this is our strategy and that how much it’s going to cost us and that is how we minimize the damage and the risk of the health care system crashing etc.

 

Instead, the WH says, we are going to have 100k dead and we are winging it and see what happens.

[clutch]

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

 

Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”

 

He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected.

 

But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

 

The Swedish models isn’t different than the US model effectively except the Swedes do with intend what the US does wby accident and of course the Swedes have a much better outcome (no collapse of their health care system in Stockholm vs NYC).

 

What I do not get is - even if Stockholm reaches heard immunity until fall, that’s only 10% of their population (Stockholm has ~1M people vs 10.3M Swedes), so they still will have 10x more cases overall when Stockholm is done.

 

NYC probably reaches some level of heard immunity too, and possibly some hard hit areas in the NE (Boston, Connecticut), but again that’s only a small part of the US population.

 

There is still a lot of uninfected humans in both countries to work through. If that’s our strategy anyhow, how about estimating some numbers. US 340M people, let say we infect 60% with a 0.75% mortality rate and get there without crashing the health care system somehow. That’s 1.53M dead by my math which needs to be seen relative to the ~2.8M natural death rate in the US.

 

Maybe that’s what it is, but I have not seen  this spelled out in a WH meeting - this is our strategy and that how much it’s going to cost us and that is how we minimize the damage and the risk of the health care system crashing etc.

 

Instead, the WH says, we are going to have 100k dead and we are winging it and see what happens.

 

The mortality rate will be lower as the older/vulnerable population die first and as schools open and more kids get infected. (I know, that sounds horrible)

 

But I 100% agree with you that these projections are never brought up by the government. It's not just the WH, but many other governments who have gone the lockdown route and are now stuck on what to do next.

 

I think we will have to learn how to live with this virus...

[Liberty]

‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

[Liberty]

 

Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid

[Guest cherzeca]

the great heather Macdonald  https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/22/the-deadly-costs-of-extended-shutdown-orders/

[clutch]

 

Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid

 

While these are success stories now, I'm afraid once they open up the borders/businesses again... Boom.

[Gregmal]

Huckabee recently stated that any elected official supporting a shutdown, should not be allowed to take a paycheck until their constituents are allowed to get back to work. So simple, but yet so true. Why are these guys getting paid? Total scum.

[Cigarbutt]

Random thoughts:

 

-For the Kawasaki disease question, viral diseases can result in unusual outcomes including triggering an autoimmune response in susceptible individuals and i agree with Spekulatius that these reports in children are now published in correlation to the prevalence of the CV virus more than a specific problem related to that specific coronavirus.

 

-For the semen quality question, the information is fragmentary and it's still early. However, sexual transmission seems unlikely. There's more work though showing that, in general, virus presence in semen is associated with a significant impact on fertility.

 

-For the spread extrapolation and controversial herd immunity questions, a lot of data and analysis suggest a more optimistic take. The R0 number is a theoretical construct and it assumes a homogeneous transmission pattern in a homogeneous population. More evidence is building up showing that the R0 number is significantly affected by many critical variables and it may be better to use a dynamic Rt {effective R} number. The theoretical construct needs to take into account the facts that some individuals spread the virus much more and outbreaks tend to happen in clusters. Population density and crowded conditions are key variables. So, as areas open up, the virus will tend to spread to areas where there will be a lower amount of susceptible individuals (spreaders and sick) and less dense or crowded populations. The 'price' to pay for less severe resurgence activity may be a much longer or even seasonal or chronic course but the dynamic level of herd immunity required may be much lower than presently conveyed. The following reference is interesting for that aspect:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf

 

-An interesting aspect is the regional variation for the application of lock-down or easing protocols which will help to define the best path but will also create tensions as regions may suffer from consequences of decisions made in other regions. It seems that leadership is needed on top to create a sense of togetherness despite the differences. For instance, trust could help to share best practices and there are self evidences that need to be maintained, for instance the indication for appropriate vaccination (existing and future). It's been reported (see below) that regular vaccinations have been postponed or eliminated. Also, if a vaccine becomes available, reaching a sufficient amount of people is key for effectiveness.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/08/childhood-vaccinations-decline-coronavirus-pandemic/

https://theconversation.com/a-majority-of-vaccine-skeptics-plan-to-refuse-a-covid-19-vaccine-a-study-suggests-and-that-could-be-a-big-problem-137559

Skeptics are essential but so is reaching a critical mass.

 

From a biological perspective, FWIW i continue to be relatively optimistic about the virus but unusually cautious about the host.

[Liberty]

 

Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid

 

While these are success stories now, I'm afraid once they open up the borders/businesses again... Boom.

 

Boom?

 

They'll keep screening people at the border and international travel will be pretty low until there's a vaccine or at least better therapies. Any time they gain now by crushing the curve and containing it is fewer deaths before a vaccine.

[Liberty]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/in-the-early-days-of-the-pandemic-the-us-government-turned-down-an-offer-to-manufacture-millions-of-n95-masks-in-america/2020/05/09/f76a821e-908a-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

 

In the early days of the pandemic, the U.S. government turned down an offer to manufacture millions of N95 masks in America

 

It was Jan. 22, a day after the first case of covid-19 was detected in the United States, and orders were pouring into Michael Bowen’s company outside Fort Worth, some from as far away as Hong Kong.

 

Bowen’s medical supply company, Prestige Ameritech, could ramp up production to make an additional 1.7 million N95 masks a week. He viewed the shrinking domestic production of medical masks as a national security issue, though, and he wanted to give the federal government first dibs.

 

“We still have four like-new N95 manufacturing lines,” Bowen wrote that day in an email to top administrators in the Department of Health and Human Services. “Reactivating these machines would be very difficult and very expensive but could be achieved in a dire situation.”

 

But communications over several days with senior agency officials — including Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary for preparedness and emergency response — left Bowen with the clear impression that there was little immediate interest in his offer.

 

“I don’t believe we as an government are anywhere near answering those questions for you yet,” Laura Wolf, director of the agency’s Division of Critical Infrastructure Protection, responded that same day.

 

Bowen persisted.

 

“We are the last major domestic mask company,” he wrote on Jan. 23. “My phones are ringing now, so I don’t ‘need’ government business. I’m just letting you know that I can help you preserve our infrastructure if things ever get really bad. I’m a patriot first, businessman second.”

 

In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant.

[clutch]

 

Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid

 

While these are success stories now, I'm afraid once they open up the borders/businesses again... Boom.

 

Boom?

 

They'll keep screening people at the border and international travel will be pretty low until there's a vaccine or at least better therapies. Any time they gain now by crushing the curve and containing it is fewer deaths before a vaccine.

 

Well, let's see what happens. I'm just very curious to see how these countries start to easy the lockdown measures, and how they will handle potential 2nd or 3rd waves... Just look at Singapore, and now S. Korea where a single club goer has caused another possible outbreak... which led the government to shut down bars/clubs again. Seems like they will have to go back and forth with measures, for the next 12+ months... At some point, I'm afraid that the whole society will lose its patience/integrity.

[Jurgis]

I am confused with this:

 

“We are the last major domestic mask company,” he wrote on Jan. 23. “My phones are ringing now, so I don’t ‘need’ government business. I’m just letting you know that I can help you preserve our infrastructure if things ever get really bad. I’m a patriot first, businessman second.”

 

In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant.

 

So is his phones ringing? If so, why the production lines are dormant?

I (and millions of others I think) would like to buy N95 masks regardless of government purchases. I'd think states and private businesses would like to buy them too - so it's not even b2consumer issue. So why are the lines dormant?

[Liberty]

Well, let's see what happens. I'm just very curious to see how these countries start to easy the lockdown measures, and how they will handle potential 2nd or 3rd waves... Just look at Singapore, and now S. Korea where a single club goer has caused another possible outbreak... which led the government to shut down bars/clubs again. Seems like they will have to go back and forth with measures, for the next 12+ months... At some point, I'm afraid that the whole society will lose its patience/integrity.

 

That's why you need a crapload of testing, good contact tracing, people wearing masks, discourage large events, etc.. This is how you avoid huge outbreaks that lead to large shutdowns. Easier to keep it to a simmer and crush little embers when they show up if you have measures to keep R0 as low as possible (under 1 ideally) and good testing to immediately catch things when they begin.

 

If you don't have that, outbreaks go undetected long enough that you can't contain them and you have to do larger shutdowns again and again.

 

Doing it right is easier than doing it wrong, which is the huge problem with the incompetence at the federal level in the US. A lot of all this could've been avoided with a competent early response (and I don't even mean super early like in January, but even later it would've made a big different because of the inherent properties of exponential growth).

[Liberty]

I am confused with this:

 

“We are the last major domestic mask company,” he wrote on Jan. 23. “My phones are ringing now, so I don’t ‘need’ government business. I’m just letting you know that I can help you preserve our infrastructure if things ever get really bad. I’m a patriot first, businessman second.”

 

In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant.

 

So is his phones ringing? If so, why the production lines are dormant?

I (and millions of others I think) would like to buy N95 masks regardless of government purchases. I'd think states and private businesses would like to buy them too - so it's not even b2consumer issue. So why are the lines dormant?

 

I'm confused too. That part is strangely written, I get the feeling that the backstory on this was cut out of the story and the line is now lacking context.

[Jurgis]

I am confused with this:

 

“We are the last major domestic mask company,” he wrote on Jan. 23. “My phones are ringing now, so I don’t ‘need’ government business. I’m just letting you know that I can help you preserve our infrastructure if things ever get really bad. I’m a patriot first, businessman second.”

 

In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant.

 

So is his phones ringing? If so, why the production lines are dormant?

I (and millions of others I think) would like to buy N95 masks regardless of government purchases. I'd think states and private businesses would like to buy them too - so it's not even b2consumer issue. So why are the lines dormant?

 

I'm confused too. That part is strangely written, I get the feeling that the backstory on this was cut out of the story and the line is now lacking context.

 

Maybe he needs financing to start the lines. But even that is weird. If he went to Amazon or Walmart or ??? and offered 7m masks per month with prepayment terms, I'd think he would get easy deals, no?

 

Edit: maybe it's the question of price? Maybe his prices are uneconomical and would be considered price gouging if compared to other sources?

[Spekulatius]

 

Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid

 

While these are success stories now, I'm afraid once they open up the borders/businesses again... Boom.

 

Boom?

 

They'll keep screening people at the border and international travel will be pretty low until there's a vaccine or at least better therapies. Any time they gain now by crushing the curve and containing it is fewer deaths before a vaccine.

 

Well, let's see what happens. I'm just very curious to see how these countries start to easy the lockdown measures, and how they will handle potential 2nd or 3rd waves... Just look at Singapore, and now S. Korea where a single club goer has caused another possible outbreak... which led the government to shut down bars/clubs again. Seems like they will have to go back and forth with measures, for the next 12+ months... At some point, I'm afraid that the whole society will lose its patience/integrity.

 

 

The whole society will lose their integrity because they can’t go to bars? C’mon.

 

Also, we keep talking about lockdowns, but the US and Europe never had any “lockdowns”. We had “shelters in place” that are quite leaky, in some countries/ states more so than others.

In my state, many stores were open (hardware, groceries, liquor and of course drugstores), parks open, takeout food available and many business declared essential etc so people still went to work as usual. That’s not what I call a “lockdowns. lockdown is what the Chinese did when they prevented people from leaving their apartment for any reason. We never had a lockdown in the US or Europe.