Coronavirus

[KCLarkin]

I agree 100% with Gregmal's last 3 posts.

 

Wearing a mask may not that all that effective in protecting you from from catching the virus, but it may help some. However it would obviously help stop those who have the virus, weather they know it or not, from spreading it.

 

So if it is even only 10-20% effective, doesn't it make sense that everyone wear a mask when in contact with others? What's the downside as long as it doesn't deplete masks available to health care workers.

 

 

One of the studies linked in that Arstechnica article Liberty posted showed that flu-like illnesses INCREASED if health care workers wore cloth masks. And cloth masks were only 3% effective in reducing virus. So the downside is actually negative (not zero).

 

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

 

[orthopa]

Its rolling over big time in NY already good news!

 

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1247194815160291328/photo/1

 

Here is latest modeling of bed usage in NYC/NY. Need to key in on the new estimate which is the purple line (kind of hard to see). Just a tincey little bit off huh? Sheesh.

 

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1247195584643170308/photo/1

[orthopa]

Ill stick my neck out again and say country is opened by 4/30.

 

I think you could be roughly right about this date, though I think it'll be on a state by state basis, with most coming after this date.

 

(That said, as far as I can see, there still isn't evidence for your "COVID-19 is widespread" theory.  I think it'll open up based on declining cases, quarantine fatigue, and the balance of pain shifting from dying people to a dying economy. So we end up in the same place, just with different explanations.)

 

I hope 4/30 is close and I agree it will be State by State. I hope the pressure to open up will build up as fast as the pressure to close did. I will be vindicated or will look like a fool when the serology data starts coming in. Looking forward to it.

[Cigarbutt]

...

Big mistake, but the biggest mistake was to not have been ready for an epidemic with a huge stockpile and good plans for what to do, testing capability and all that, and to lose weeks to this disorganized response.

Thinking out loud here.

The comment is obviously correct, in hindsight. One could argue that the evidence was there for everyone to see but that one can always find explanations, after the 'unexpected' event, whatever it comes to be.

 

Context: I've been thinking about risk and uncertainty lately and, for instance, now think that there is excess leverage in the global financial system with the risk of correlated (financial) contamination. It feels like a voice in the wilderness and it's no way to make friends. A way to deal with black or white swans is simply to build resilience but that comes with a cost.

 

On a more relevant basis, I've been following the consequences for PG&E (California utility in bankruptcy). The evidence before the fires was obvious if you had eyes to see and an aspect which is concerning is that the diversion of attention of public authorities from the utility to the virus will likely result in PG&E coming out of bankruptcy weakly capitalized, with a poor operating culture and defective resilience planning.

 

It's hard to prepare for contingencies and the natural reflex is to fight the last war.

-----) Back to the Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

I have been following this model all along. Yesterday predicted 94k deaths in US, now 81k.

 

This model has come under a lot of criticism. I only mention this as this was the model Dr. Birx had cited before.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

81k is on par with a model I posted here a few days ago. The model that Fauci presented with 100-240k dead was an outlier compared to anything else I have seen.

[Liberty]

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-live-updates-ontario-reporting-309-new-cases-including-13-additional-deaths

 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday said the United States had blocked the delivery of nearly three million face masks at the American border over the weekend.

 

Ford said restrictions on shipments at the U.S. border have left the province with just one more week’s worth of personal protective equipment for health-care workers fighting the coronavirus outbreak in Ontario.

[Liberty]

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in intensive care after coronavirus condition ‘worsened’"

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52192604?at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom4=2444197A-783B-11EA-8FE0-C319FDA12A29

[cwericb]

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday said the United States had blocked the delivery of nearly three million face masks at the American border over the weekend.

 

Ford said restrictions on shipments at the U.S. border have left the province with just one more week’s worth of personal protective equipment for health-care workers fighting the coronavirus outbreak in Ontario."

 

When you can't depend on your best friend, closest ally and largest trading partner in a time of need it is a sad situation which I fear will have consequences in the future. I know that perhaps 50% of our cottage neighbours are American and it will have an effect.

[cwericb]

Not abiding by social distancing is a $1,000 fine the first time, $2,000 the second time & $10,000 the third time. Several have been fined once.

[RichardGibbons]

When you can't depend on your best friend, closest ally and largest trading partner in a time of need it is a sad situation which I fear will have consequences in the future. I know that perhaps 50% of our cottage neighbours are American and it will have an effect.

 

Yeah, I think it will have an effect, but not that big an effect. One of the nice things about Canada is that our population isn't under the influence of propaganda networks to the extent that the USA is, which makes our politics less polarized and our populace better able to understand that the world is filled with shades of grey. So, I think most Canadians will be quick to condemn Trump, but far less quick to condemn most Americans, and continue to see them as friends and neighbours.

 

Strong Trump supporters will get contempt and derision from Canadians, but I think that's a pretty small percentage of Americans who visit up north, and even for Trump supporters, the contempt and derision often won't be that openly displayed.

[orthopa]

I have been following this model all along. Yesterday predicted 94k deaths in US, now 81k.

 

This model has come under a lot of criticism. I only mention this as this was the model Dr. Birx had cited before.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

81k is on par with a model I posted here a few days ago. The model that Fauci presented with 100-240k dead was an outlier compared to anything else I have seen.

 

...and why the country has a stay at home order until 4/30. Hopefully very over estimated.

[Gregmal]

Not abiding by social distancing is a $1,000 fine the first time, $2,000 the second time & $10,000 the third time. Several have been fined once.

 

I think detaining people is a better solution than escalating fines. Outside of hugging your children and f**** your wife, what reason, ever really, but especially given the current situation, do you have for getting that close to another person? Whats wrong with people?

[orthopa]

California sending back ventilators! Who ever would have thought this was going to happen already. The most populous state in the country thinks the curve is flattening there already. 4/30 is looking better every day.

 

https://m.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-to-send-500-ventilators-on-loan-15182045.php

 

Seven days ago the worst was coming in 6 weeks.In actuality its here or passed. We are way, way further up the curve then we think we are.

 

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/03/31/california-governor-newsom-covid-projection-april-may/

[minten]

on masks:

[ERICOPOLY]

Not abiding by social distancing is a $1,000 fine the first time, $2,000 the second time & $10,000 the third time. Several have been fined once.

 

I think detaining people is a better solution than escalating fines. Outside of hugging your children and f**** your wife, what reason, ever really, but especially given the current situation, do you have for getting that close to another person? Whats wrong with people?

 

Some people feel the rules don't apply to them:

 

https://www.recordnet.com/news/20200405/new-door-locks-change-defiant-lodi-congregations-plans

 

 

[mcliu]

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday said the United States had blocked the delivery of nearly three million face masks at the American border over the weekend.

 

Ford said restrictions on shipments at the U.S. border have left the province with just one more week’s worth of personal protective equipment for health-care workers fighting the coronavirus outbreak in Ontario."

 

When you can't depend on your best friend, closest ally and largest trading partner in a time of need it is a sad situation which I fear will have consequences in the future. I know that perhaps 50% of our cottage neighbours are American and it will have an effect.

 

Not a nice move by the US.

But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

[Gregmal]

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday said the United States had blocked the delivery of nearly three million face masks at the American border over the weekend.

 

Ford said restrictions on shipments at the U.S. border have left the province with just one more week’s worth of personal protective equipment for health-care workers fighting the coronavirus outbreak in Ontario."

 

When you can't depend on your best friend, closest ally and largest trading partner in a time of need it is a sad situation which I fear will have consequences in the future. I know that perhaps 50% of our cottage neighbours are American and it will have an effect.

 

Not a nice move by the US.

But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

 

Yea, its an interesting narrative and application of responsibility from some here. The US/Trump should have foreseen everything months ago and had massive stockpiles of everything one would be able to think of after the fact. Everyone else who is unprepared is the victim of Trump being an asshole.

[ERICOPOLY]

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday said the United States had blocked the delivery of nearly three million face masks at the American border over the weekend.

 

Ford said restrictions on shipments at the U.S. border have left the province with just one more week’s worth of personal protective equipment for health-care workers fighting the coronavirus outbreak in Ontario."

 

When you can't depend on your best friend, closest ally and largest trading partner in a time of need it is a sad situation which I fear will have consequences in the future. I know that perhaps 50% of our cottage neighbours are American and it will have an effect.

 

Not a nice move by the US.

But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

 

Yea, its an interesting narrative and application of responsibility from some here. The US/Trump should have foreseen everything months ago and had massive stockpiles of everything one would be able to think of after the fact. Everyone else who is unprepared is the victim of Trump being an asshole.

 

I think we could negotiate an exchange for toilet paper if we were smarter.

[Liberty]

The Strategic National Stockpile was amassed for 22 years, and those involved in both the Bush and Obama administrations say its sole purpose is to be deployed to states in a moment like this.

 

“The idea the stockpile is ours and the governors have got to have their own stockpile, they are changing the narrative,” said Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, who served as the Joint Taskforce Commander during Hurricane Katrina. “That is bulls--- and Jared Kushner doesn’t know what he is talking about.”

 

In 1998, President Bill Clinton, growing increasingly concerned about how the U.S. would respond to a bioterrorism attack, signed a law allocating $51 million for the stockpiling of drugs and vaccines.

 

Subsequent administrations have built up the stockpile to respond to a range of medical emergencies the country could face, from a terrorist attack to a natural disaster, like a hurricane or tornado. In addition to drugs and vaccines to treat known pathogens, the stockpile has been expanded under each previous administration to include additional medical supplies and even the ability to set up a 250 bed hospital in a disaster zone. [...]

 

Under the Trump administration, the management of the stockpile was moved out of CDC and into the Department of Health and Human Services, something former CDC director Thomas Frieden warned at the start of the coronavirus pandemic could make it more difficult for resources to be quickly and effectively allocated.

 

The Trump administration went so far as to change the website description for the stockpile to downplay its use by the states, removing language saying that it was intended to be used by state, local, tribal, and territorial responders who "request federal assistance” following Kushner's comments last week.

 

Under the Obama administration, when a state needed something, like during the H1N1 pandemic, they would put in a formal request to the federal government, which would review it and allocate what was needed to the states to then distribute to their local hospitals.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-use-medical-stockpile-veers-past-administrations-leaving-state-n1177786

[Viking]

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday said the United States had blocked the delivery of nearly three million face masks at the American border over the weekend.

 

Ford said restrictions on shipments at the U.S. border have left the province with just one more week’s worth of personal protective equipment for health-care workers fighting the coronavirus outbreak in Ontario."

 

When you can't depend on your best friend, closest ally and largest trading partner in a time of need it is a sad situation which I fear will have consequences in the future. I know that perhaps 50% of our cottage neighbours are American and it will have an effect.

 

Not a nice move by the US.

But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

 

Yea, its an interesting narrative and application of responsibility from some here. The US/Trump should have foreseen everything months ago and had massive stockpiles of everything one would be able to think of after the fact. Everyone else who is unprepared is the victim of Trump being an asshole.

 

US standing in the world continues to fall to new lows. Disgusting behaviour. It is in times of crisis that you learn about the true character of people and nations.

 

Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador takes aim at Trump over medical supplies

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-premier-of-newfoundland-and-labrador-takes-aim-at-trump-over-medical/

 

Dwight Ball told a news conference today that the province gained international acclaim for the way its residents helped thousands of stranded airline passengers after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States in 2001.

 

Ball says that when the United States was in crisis, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians “acted fast and did what was necessary.”

 

[LongHaul]

I agree 100% with Gregmal's last 3 posts.

 

Wearing a mask may not that all that effective in protecting you from from catching the virus, but it may help some. However it would obviously help stop those who have the virus, weather they know it or not, from spreading it.

 

So if it is even only 10-20% effective, doesn't it make sense that everyone wear a mask when in contact with others? What's the downside as long as it doesn't deplete masks available to health care workers.

 

 

One of the studies linked in that Arstechnica article Liberty posted showed that flu-like illnesses INCREASED if health care workers wore cloth masks. And cloth masks were only 3% effective in reducing virus. So the downside is actually negative (not zero).

 

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

 

Good point on the cloth mask study.  Cloth masks to seems to be the worst option.  N95 or surgical are much better.

I wonder how many infections the cloth masks would prevent though.

In South Korea I think I  read that the govt essentially did a mass distribution of N95 masks for pharmacies to sell cheap.  Smart move.

 

Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

[cwericb]

    "Not a nice move by the US.

    But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

 

Yea, its an interesting narrative and application of responsibility from some here. The US/Trump should have foreseen everything months ago and had massive stockpiles of everything one would be able to think of after the fact. Everyone else who is unprepared is the victim of Trump being an asshole."

 

Perhaps, but these masks could have been ordered some time ago. The real slap in the face is that Canada supplies materials to 3M to make the masks that Trump is hijacking. 3M Canada may feel the effects of this. Also Canada plays a significant part in supporting health care in the US. it is a two way street.

 

 

[Dynamic]

 

Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

 

Interesting thought. Do you have any virology expertise or reference to back that up or is it a hunch?

 

You could alternatively look at it as: the virus only needs to get enough of a foothold in a cell to get reproduced and the person is then infected and the virus doubles, quadruples and so on and is then ejected from the cell into other cells where it reproduced further. The cloth mask just gives a very slightly better chance of stopping it from reaching the initial cell and causing an infection in the first place but won't affect the severity of infection if it does occur. The viral load only matters days after infection when the body is flooded with virus that has reproduced within the body and the worst problem is the cytokine storm in certain individual where the immune system overreacts with the side effect of inflaming lung tissue and impairing the rate of oxygen absorption into the blood, thereby requiring oxygen masks to increase the oxygen density gradient or forced pressure ventilators to increase it further, to try to get blood oxygen take-up back to the body's required level.

[ERICOPOLY]

South Carolina becomes latest U.S. state to issue 'stay at home' orders

 

https://news.yahoo.com/south-carolina-becomes-latest-u-213837371.html

 

 

[cwericb]

Just watched a clip of the mayor of Windsor, Ont pleading not to have the Windsor/Detroit border closed as some Detroit hospitals would be forced to close with out Canadian staff. Hijacking our medical materials could have serious consequences, We can and will get our masks elsewhere, but try to come up with a couple of thousand nurses in a hurry.