Coronavirus

[Viking]

The war analogy that Trump used when describing the virus looks very fitting. The health care workers are the soldiers. The leadership group is not aligned on strategy. We know little about the enemy. As in any war there is lots of collateral damage. Weekly initial unemployment claims increased to 3.3 million in the last week. This war is now getting real for the American public. We are entering a new stage.

 

- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_26.html

 

“At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

 

Over the next few weeks, continued claims will increase rapidly to a new record high, and then will likely stay at that high level until the crisis abates.”

 

The causation of unemployment is very different in this situation when compared to the GFC. One was mandated by government, the other was not. The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.

 

“The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.” Why?

 

PS: Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall

BY MOTHER GOOSE

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall;

All the king's horses and all the king's men

Couldn't put Humpty together again.

[Cigarbutt]

The war analogy that Trump used when describing the virus looks very fitting. The health care workers are the soldiers. The leadership group is not aligned on strategy. We know little about the enemy. As in any war there is lots of collateral damage. Weekly initial unemployment claims increased to 3.3 million in the last week. This war is now getting real for the American public. We are entering a new stage.

- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_26.html

“At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Over the next few weeks, continued claims will increase rapidly to a new record high, and then will likely stay at that high level until the crisis abates.”

The causation of unemployment is very different in this situation when compared to the GFC. One was mandated by government, the other was not. The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.

The time to discuss is not when picking up the pieces.

I disagree on the causation aspect, keeping in mind the trigger and leading context.

In 2004, the person in charge of governance marvelled at ARMs and was happy to spill gas on the fire, as part of the mandate.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040223/

CV is an error of commision. GFC was an error of omission. Acutely, we have to come together but let's not forget the underlying theme.

[Castanza]

The war analogy that Trump used when describing the virus looks very fitting. The health care workers are the soldiers. The leadership group is not aligned on strategy. We know little about the enemy. As in any war there is lots of collateral damage. Weekly initial unemployment claims increased to 3.3 million in the last week. This war is now getting real for the American public. We are entering a new stage.

 

- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_26.html

 

“At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

 

Over the next few weeks, continued claims will increase rapidly to a new record high, and then will likely stay at that high level until the crisis abates.”

 

The causation of unemployment is very different in this situation when compared to the GFC. One was mandated by government, the other was not. The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.

 

“The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.” Why?

 

PS: Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall

BY MOTHER GOOSE

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall;

All the king's horses and all the king's men

Couldn't put Humpty together again.

 

Because on the other end of this there will be demand for workers (fill the positions they left). During the GFC there was not. That will be the difference in how the US economy starts back up.

[Liberty]

Good podcast on decentralized, heterogenous, skin-in-the game early detection and prevention systems for epidemics based on complexity science:

 

https://jimruttshow.blubrry.net/extra-jordan-hall/

 

These kinds of ideas would be what we could use to design a much better system for the future.

[Viking]

The war analogy that Trump used when describing the virus looks very fitting. The health care workers are the soldiers. The leadership group is not aligned on strategy. We know little about the enemy. As in any war there is lots of collateral damage. Weekly initial unemployment claims increased to 3.3 million in the last week. This war is now getting real for the American public. We are entering a new stage.

 

- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_26.html

 

“At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

 

Over the next few weeks, continued claims will increase rapidly to a new record high, and then will likely stay at that high level until the crisis abates.”

 

The causation of unemployment is very different in this situation when compared to the GFC. One was mandated by government, the other was not. The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.

 

“The underlying factors as to why unemployment is spiking is important.” Why?

 

PS: Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall

BY MOTHER GOOSE

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall;

All the king's horses and all the king's men

Couldn't put Humpty together again.

 

Because on the other end of this there will be demand for workers (fill the positions they left). During the GFC there was not. That will be the difference in how the US economy starts back up.

 

The US is a service driven economy. Right now in China some manufacturing jobs have come back but Chinese consumers are not consuming; they are still afraid of catching the virus or losing their job.

 

The virus hits service jobs more than manufacturing jobs. Airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise, travel; all of these areas employ lots of people and they will not be coming back any time soon.

 

The unemployment claims we see right now could go much higher than people expect. What if they go to 9 or 10 million in the coming weeks and what if it stays elevated for months?

 

And what if the virus comes back in Sept mutated and worse?

 

We are flying blind right now. I am simply trying to understand where this thing is going. News out of China does not support a V shaped recovery. Maybe a U shaped recovery, but it is still too early to tell.

[Liberty]

https://www.propublica.org/article/internal-emails-show-how-chaos-at-the-cdc-slowed-the-early-response-to-coronavirus

 

Also:

 

WHO Director General: "The pandemic is accelerating at an exponential rate. The first 100,000 cases took 67 days. The second 100,000 took 11 days, the third 100,000 took just 4 days, and the fourth 100,000 just 2 days."

 

and:

 

What we are seeing: Where it is severe, there is action. Other areas are waiting till it becomes severe.

 

What we see is only the tip of the iceberg.

 

We need to get ahead of it.

 

We can stop it.

 

Why wait?

 

[Liberty]

 

(can anyone imagine Trump writing these words? He likely told a staff writer to tell governors he's going to tell them when to re-open, and the writer added all the empathy and justifications)

 

Meanwhile, getting ready for a shift: https://i.imgur.com/YSitKiz.gifv

[Jurgis]

Got a postcard in the postal mail today with "PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CORONAVIRUS GUIDELINES FOR AMERICA" (caps original, not mine).

 

Good copy man.

[cwericb]

Spain now disconnecting respirators from patients over 65 to give to younger people. Seniors being sedated so they don’t suffer.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0323/1124930-medics-on-the-frontline/

 

Spain has nearly 4,000 health workers infected with the coronavirus

[Viking]

Liberty, the letter is good news. Testing, science and technology will form the basis of the US response moving forward. Now it just needs to be executed in the coming weeks and months. I am hoping my government (Canada) is paying attention.

[Liberty]

Liberty, the letter is good news. Testing, science and technology will form the basis of the US response moving forward. Now it just needs to be executed in the coming weeks and months. I am hoping my government (Canada) is paying attention.

 

The letter is a letter. Let's see the action. So far, it hasn't been data and science based with him, contradicting the experts even within the same press conference with them, making arbitrary deadlines, and refusing to get out of the way and let the grownups run things because he can't have his rallies so he's jonesing for narcissistic supply which he can get with daily press conferences where he basically has nothing that makes sense to say.

[Liberty]

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-26/

 

This paper estimates and monetizes the impact of moderate social distancing on deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. Using the Imperial College simulation model of COVID-19’s spread and mortality impacts (Ferguson et al. 2020), we project that moderate social distancing would save 1.7 million lives between March 1 and October 1, with 630,000 due to avoided overwhelming of hospital intensive care units. Using the projected age-specific reductions in death and age-varying estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL), we find that the mortality benefits of social distancing are over $8 trillion or $60,000 per US household. About 90% of the monetized benefits are projected to accrue to people age 50 or older. Overall, the analysis suggests that social distancing initiatives and policies in response to the COVID-19 epidemic have substantial economic benefits.

[Liberty]

Thread on mask usage, including in the Czech republic:

 

 

Could help explain why Japan did so well..?

 

I understand that masks need to go to those on the frontlines first as long as there's limited supply, but as soon as supply ramps up, probably a good idea for everybody to have masks for a while. Cheap way to save lots of lives, including from the flu and other diseases, and ben R0 <1.

 

 

(turquoise lines wear masks in public (not only measures, but probably helps on top of good testing, tracing, lockdowns, etc))

[Dalal.Holdings]

Spain now disconnecting respirators from patients over 65 to give to younger people. Seniors being sedated so they don’t suffer.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0323/1124930-medics-on-the-frontline/

 

Spain has nearly 4,000 health workers infected with the coronavirus

 

Almost like this thing follows an order (regions hit later peak later). More holes in the "this has been widespread since January" thesis.

 

Spain becoming the new Italy. My fear is that the U.S. will be a late peaking country (due to it being a late onset country) and right now the focus is on NY/WA, but it has already seeded throughout the nation...  :-\

[Viking]

Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isn’t he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!

 

Bill Gates on coronavirus: We need an 'extreme shutdown' of 6 to 10 weeks

- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html

 

Philanthropist and billionaire Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.

 

“It’s very irresponsible for somebody to suggest we can have the best of both worlds,” Gates emphasized in an interview with TED on Tuesday. “What we need is the extreme shutdown, so that in six to 10 weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up.”

[John Hjorth]

Liberty & Viking,

 

Just for reference and comparison to the US situation, below are the information pieces, guidances & calls etc. to the Danish people :

 

Latest news from the authorities.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

New York State hospitals had a 40% increase in hospitalizations over night. 100 new deaths since yesterday morning.

 

Just another flu. Nothing to see here.

[cwericb]

"Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isn’t he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!"

 

Never really thought of Gates as a dummy.

 

Italy and Spain were late to shut down and it hasn't worked out well for them. I would guess that the sooner you shut down, the sooner you will be able to open up again - but you need to stay in lock down until you can stop the spread of the virus or develop a vaccine. I'm certainly no expert, but it seems logical to me.

 

Is it not better to be over cautious than not cautious enough?

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

New York State hospitals had a 40% increase in hospitalizations over night. 100 new deaths since yesterday morning.

 

Just another flu. Nothing to see here.

 

I've never seen that happen with auto accidents, heart disease, or cancer either.

 

FYI, COVID daily deaths now exceed that from daily auto accident deaths in the United States...

[Dalal.Holdings]

Nearing 80k confirmed cases in the U.S.

 

Within 48 hours, U.S. is on track to become the country with the most cases worldwide (more than China with 3x the population if you trust their numbers). Let that sink in.

[minten]

FYI, COVID daily deaths now exceed that from daily auto accident deaths in the United States...

 

FYI, still nowhere near (as in less than 10%) to cancer deaths.  or cardio vascular deaths for that matter.

[Dalal.Holdings]

FYI, COVID daily deaths now exceed that from daily auto accident deaths in the United States...

 

FYI, still nowhere near (as in less than 10%) to cancer deaths.  or cardio vascular deaths for that matter.

 

Thanks for the update. FYI if it weren't for cancer or cardiovascular deaths, human beings would be immortal (other than dying from accidents/murder/etc).

[cwericb]

“FYI, still nowhere near (as in less than 10%) to cancer deaths.  or cardio vascular deaths for that matter.”

 

Realize you are trying to put things iin perspective, but in the long run it is kind of irrelevant isn’t it - especially to those who has it?  But no sweat, I have it on good authority that this will all be over by Easter.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

FYI, COVID daily deaths now exceed that from daily auto accident deaths in the United States...

 

FYI, still nowhere near (as in less than 10%) to cancer deaths.  or cardio vascular deaths for that matter.

 

Yup - thank goodness neither of those are communicable.

 

Also would add that the deaths from either will remain roughly static barring large scale behavioral change. So no change in behavior = no change in deaths.

 

Coronovirus deaths will likely increase until deaths are 1-2 million w/o large scale behavioral change (i.e social distancing) . No change in behavior = dramatic increase in deaths.

[mcliu]

"Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isn’t he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!"

 

Never really thought of Gates as a dummy.

 

Italy and Spain were late to shut down and it hasn't worked out well for them. I would guess that the sooner you shut down, the sooner you will be able to open up again - but you need to stay in lock down until you can stop the spread of the virus or develop a vaccine. I'm certainly no expert, but it seems logical to me.

 

Is it not better to be over cautious than not cautious enough?

 

I think you have to shutdown high density areas like big cities.

But it probably doesn't make sense to shutdown rural or mainly suburban areas. If people are careful, outbreaks will probably be rare, because no mass transit, lots of space per person, everyone drives, etc.