Coronavirus

[perulv]

 

My dumb opinion is that Korea's 0.6% might also be low also because cases haven't saturated the system like in Wuhan. And that maybe we can slow down COVID-19 by social distancing so that never happens.

 

 

All in all, COVID-19 might infect 2-4x more people than the flu and kill at a rate 6-30x higher.

 

A data-point from Norway (might be interesting for some, presented without opinion): Out of the (as of yesterday) 86 confirmed infected, no one is severely ill, or even hospitalized. And as you say, (many?) more are probably infected, as just those with symptoms are tested. But then again, most of the infected are people coming home from ski-trips, not elderly people with reduced immune-system.

[kab60]

Wonder whether there'll be fewer deaths in total than during a normal flu season (if one normalize things) when this is all set and done. I've never seen people use hand sanitizer as they do these days.

[Spekulatius]

Wonder whether there'll be fewer deaths in total than during a normal flu season (if one normalize things) when this is all set and done. I've never seen people use hand sanitizer as they do these days.

 

Times are so dire that even my teenage son started to wash his hands before dinner

[Gregmal]

 

My dumb opinion is that Korea's 0.6% might also be low also because cases haven't saturated the system like in Wuhan. And that maybe we can slow down COVID-19 by social distancing so that never happens.

 

 

All in all, COVID-19 might infect 2-4x more people than the flu and kill at a rate 6-30x higher.

 

A data-point from Norway (might be interesting for some, presented without opinion): Out of the (as of yesterday) 86 confirmed infected, no one is severely ill, or even hospitalized. And as you say, (many?) more are probably infected, as just those with symptoms are tested. But then again, most of the infected are people coming home from ski-trips, not elderly people with reduced immune-system.

 

Its hard to zero in anywhere which is why it all must, IMO, be taken both with a grain of sincerity, as well as skepticism. Every country you can more or less make the case that the numbers cant be trusted. At the same time, its also quite possible the numbers are skewed as many have already alluded to with respect to the fact that the majority of confirmed cases are just those that are bad or paranoid enough to come forward.

[cubsfan]

 

Times are so dire that even my teenage son started to wash his hands before dinner

 

LMAO - that'll be the day!

[james22]

Some people are whining that all this criticism of our government's response is "making this political". If you can't criticize a government's response to a viral pandemic, what can you criticize?

 

To be clear, I whine only about the particular criticism of Trump/Pence. I don't believe governments are capable of responding much better, no matter the leadership. I believe it is poor planning to rely on governments, no matter how enlightened, to protect us.

 

Mike Pence needs to be replaced as the point-of-contact with someone who has medical knowledge.

 

Medical knowledge is important, but not as important as knowledge of the possible consequences of a panic, how and what to communicate, etc. It's exactly why our system empowers the Executive Branch/Pence to make those decisions.

[Viking]

This is the first time i have heard someone from the Trump administration say that the US response is behind the curve. The narrative is starting to shift. My guess is the administration is starting to realize the US is in the first inning of this outbreak and woefully unprepared. Each day the news is going to get worse. Look at other regions where a cluster happened (like Kirkland) like Italy, South Korea and Iran; A relentless flow of bad news.

 

————————————

Pompeo accuses China of holding back U.S. response (Washington Post)

 

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused China on Friday of holding back the U.S. response to the coronavirus outbreak by being “incredibly frustrating” to work with.

 

Pompeo said that China’s reluctance to provide the United States with data, which “will ultimately be the solution to both getting the vaccine and attacking this risk,” is complicating U.S. efforts.

 

“The information that we got at the front end of this thing wasn’t perfect and has led us now to a place where much of the challenge we face today has put us behind the curve,” Pompeo said during a morning interview with CNBC.

[ERICOPOLY]

Some people are whining that all this criticism of our government's response is "making this political". If you can't criticize a government's response to a viral pandemic, what can you criticize?

 

To be clear, I whine only about the particular criticism of Trump/Pence. I don't believe governments are capable of responding much better, no matter the leadership. I believe it is poor planning to rely on governments, no matter how enlightened, to protect us.

 

Leadership:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-rallies/index.html

 

"These were set up a long time ago," the President said in the Oval Office when asked if it was a good idea to proceed with his planned rally on Monday evening in North Carolina.

 

[Viking]

Some people are whining that all this criticism of our government's response is "making this political". If you can't criticize a government's response to a viral pandemic, what can you criticize?

 

To be clear, I whine only about the particular criticism of Trump/Pence. I don't believe governments are capable of responding much better, no matter the leadership. I believe it is poor planning to rely on governments, no matter how enlightened, to protect us.

 

Leadership:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-rallies/index.html

 

"These were set up a long time ago," the President said in the Oval Office when asked if it was a good idea to proceed with his planned rally on Monday evening in North Carolina.

 

Here is the key point that people are still missing. If you let a cluster happen this virus will quickly become a disaster. So what you do is test like hell in the early stages and do everything humanly possible to stop a cluster. Then this virus can be managed more like the flu; where your health care system does not become paralyzed. Look at Taiwan (just a random example) and their location, the size of their population and the number of cases they have. It is the governments of each country that are managing this virus and some governments appear to be managing the outbreak exceptionally well and others not so much.

 

A cluster has been allowed to happen in Kirkland Washington. It was allowed to happen because:

1.) testing was set much, much too restrictive in the beginning

2.) limited test kits were available, due to CDC deciding to not use WHO kit. The kit the CDC developed was faulty. Enough testing kits are only now being made available.

 

The US is still not able to test everyone who needs to be tested. Read that last sentence again. This is a highly contagious virus and it takes only a couple of weeks of inactivity (from health care/government) for a cluster to form. Once a cluster forms you are screwed. We are 9 weeks into this crisis and people in the US who need to be tested are not being tested.

 

Some governments have handled this health crisis well and some governments have completely screwed up. In the coming weeks we will be supplied with lots more data to see ‘who has been swimming naked’.

 

 

[LC]

Leadership:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-rallies/index.html

 

"These were set up a long time ago," the President said in the Oval Office when asked if it was a good idea to proceed with his planned rally on Monday evening in North Carolina.

No, this is leadership:

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-trump-cdc-atlanta-visit-cancelled-outbreak-latest-a9381146.html

 

Donald Trump has cancelled his visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters amid coronavirus fears, according to a senior White House official.

 

Trump “does not want to interfere with the CDC’s mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency,” the White House official said on Friday.

[John Hjorth]

Viking,

 

Respectfully, to me, your last post is not correct. WHO has known since February 25^th 2020, that any strategy to contain the virus would fail.

 

I'll document it in my next post.

[Viking]

John, my understanding is the virus started in China late December so it has been with us for about 9 weeks. It quickly spread in 3 weeks forcing China to lock down Wuhan on January 23. I think it is safe to say that all governments around the world at that time knew a serious problem had happened. Serious planning should have started then. WHO information would further inform country plans.

 

My key complaint about the US response is with regards to testing. It has been completely botched. And with a virus that is this contagious (and large numbers of severe cases) if it is not tested for it can very quickly overwhelm your medical system.

 

Now it might be that the spread of this virus cannot be slowed and that every country will soon see a spike in cases. But i think the WHO is saying the opposite; that this virus can be slowed and managed IF governments act quickly and decisively.

[no_free_lunch]

Meanwhile, in Canada.

 

Asked by reporters on Thursday why Canada is not moving towards banning foreign nationals arriving from China, Iran or South Korea, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country is making decisions based on recommendations from the World Health Organization.

 

“We recognize that there are countries that make different decisions,” Trudeau said at an event in Scarborough, Ont.

 

Trudeau added that there is a lot of misinformation surrounding the virus.

 

“There is a lot of knee-jerk reactions that aren’t keeping people safe,” he said.

 

So much as we will complain about the US handling, what is Canada doing?  We refuse to close our borders because we don't want to make knee-jerk reactions?  So fine, we test and that should be done, but shouldn't we be stopping traffic from infected areas?  Or for those who are so upset about US handling, how do you rationalize what Canada is doing.  We will continue to let people in and spread the infection but it's all okay because we are testing once people become sick.  So at least we will be able to watch more in real-time as this infection spreads through the country.

[LC]

Or for those who are so upset about US handling, how do you rationalize what Canada is doing.

 

I can't! I think both countries should be limiting travel internationally for at least a few weeks. Citizens returning from overseas (particularly problem areas) should be quarantined and tested.

[Viking]

Meanwhile, in Canada.

 

Asked by reporters on Thursday why Canada is not moving towards banning foreign nationals arriving from China, Iran or South Korea, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country is making decisions based on recommendations from the World Health Organization.

 

“We recognize that there are countries that make different decisions,” Trudeau said at an event in Scarborough, Ont.

 

Trudeau added that there is a lot of misinformation surrounding the virus.

 

“There is a lot of knee-jerk reactions that aren’t keeping people safe,” he said.

 

So much as we will complain about the US handling, what is Canada doing?  We refuse to close our borders because we don't want to make knee-jerk reactions?  So fine, we test and that should be done, but shouldn't we be stopping traffic from infected areas?  Or for those who are so upset about US handling, how do you rationalize what Canada is doing.  We will continue to let people in and spread the infection but it's all okay because we are testing once people become sick.  So at least we will be able to watch more in real-time as this infection spreads through the country.

 

You make great points. As i have been saying for the past week there is so much we do not know. We will find out in 6 months or a year how well individual countries have handled the outbreak. There will be lots of lessons.

 

Personally, i would like to see Canada do everything it can do to slow the virus down and give the health care system a chance. Do i trust Trudeau? A little; but i find he can be naive and craves popularity too much. We will see.

[RichardGibbons]

Or for those who are so upset about US handling, how do you rationalize what Canada is doing.

 

I can't! I think both countries should be limiting travel internationally for at least a few weeks. Citizens returning from overseas (particularly problem areas) should be quarantined and tested.

 

Yeah, me too. They should be blocking international travel. BC has had better testing than the USA, but the federal government doesn't seem to be able to walk (deal with blockades) and chew gum at the same time (implement anti-coronavirus strategies).  I think the problem is that Trudeau generally cares much more about people's perceptions of him than concrete solutions to real problems.

 

No_free_lunch, you believing that criticism of the US response indicates support for the Canadian response is most likely a result of your bias.

[Viking]

For people who think this virus is just a bad flu read news article below. I am not posting to sensationalize the issue. Or to bash any politician. But to educate. If the virus is not aggressively controlled this same situation could play out again and again. There is a reason China handled the outbreak the way they did.

 

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/the-disease-is-running-rampant-families-at-center-of-virus-scare-share-their-despair

 

Thursday March 5: KIRKLAND, Wash. - Confusion, misinformation, apathetic officials, fear, panic, death ...

 

Those are just some of the many hardships faced by families of residents at Life Care Center in Kirkland - the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the Puget Sound - as the disease sickens and kills off greater numbers of their loved ones each day.

 

Meanwhile, the families say they wait for answers that never come, help that never arrives.

 

"We have no options, except to sit and wait for a phone call," said one family member, Kevin Connley, whose father is a Life Care resident. "The response by our government is laughable. ... We want our loved ones moved to a safer place immediately."

 

At a hastily called news Thursday conference, relatives of residents at the facility met with reporters and described overworked Life Care staff who are receiving little or no help from the Centers for Disease Control or local health departments as they deal with an impossible situation.

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

No_free_lunch, you believing that criticism of the US response indicates support for the Canadian response is most likely a result of your bias.

 

Very likely yes, but that doesn't mean I am wrong. I feel if you are to clobber the right-wing with an argument you should apply the same rationale and criticism to the left.

 

Reading through your posts, I appreciate the intellectual honesty you are all showing right now.

 

I think there is stupidity on both sides.  Trump trying to downplay the virus to avoid election concerns.  Trudeau trying to avoid offending anyone and in turn endangering his whole country.

[Liberty]

[Viking]

I continue to believe that people are way underestimating the economic impact of this virus. I have no idea scientifically accurate the article below is; my take away is we are starting to get calls for more radical solutions to try and slow the virus. My guess is some will be implemented in the coming week. Listening to the business experts on TV many are quoting flu stats (saying this virus is similar so financial markets are overeacting) and predicting a v-shape recovery. We will see.

 

Travel restrictions merely delayed spread of coronavirus, new study finds

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/06/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-AC43S5WUW5E7HEMHNUMXXADAV4

 

A new study released Friday in the journal Science finds that the travel restrictions China implemented domestically, once the scope of the outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan became apparent, likely only delayed the spread of the illness by three to five days.

 

In addition, the international travel restrictions, including ones the Trump administration imposed starting in late January and continues to tout as its most effective policies to combat the virus, significantly delayed, but did not prevent, the spread of the virus abroad.

 

The study, which simulated the spread of the disease using travel data and epidemic modeling, found that the combination of an extended, stringent set of travel restrictions with policies to cut transmission of the disease within the United States will be needed to gain control of this outbreak.

 

“Moving forward we expect that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest effects,” the study states. “And that transmission-reduction interventions will provide the greatest benefit to mitigate the epidemic.”

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757

 

 

[Viking]

 

+1; a picture is worth a thousand words. Now we just need to get this picture out to the politicians.

[Castanza]

What constitutes "Healthcare system capacity"?

 

 

[StubbleJumper]

Or for those who are so upset about US handling, how do you rationalize what Canada is doing.

 

I can't! I think both countries should be limiting travel internationally for at least a few weeks. Citizens returning from overseas (particularly problem areas) should be quarantined and tested.

 

Yeah, me too. They should be blocking international travel. BC has had better testing than the USA, but the federal government doesn't seem to be able to walk (deal with blockades) and chew gum at the same time (implement anti-coronavirus strategies).  I think the problem is that Trudeau generally cares much more about people's perceptions of him than concrete solutions to real problems.

 

No_free_lunch, you believing that criticism of the US response indicates support for the Canadian response is most likely a result of your bias.

 

 

Travel restrictions are hard to impose on Canadian passport holders.  It would be possible to try to implement a quarantine against a Canadian citizen travelling from an infected country, but I am guessing that would be relatively easy to circumvent because people can take a two or three stage trip through uninfected countries and we wouldn't necessarily know (eg, travel from China to Dubai on a foreign passport, and then from Dubai to Frankfurt to Toronto on a Canadian passport).  However, it would be possible to immediately suspend all 10-year multiple entry visas for certain foreign passport holders.  We cannot deny Canadians the right to return to Canada if they present a valid passport, but we have no obligation to allow foreigners to visit.

 

 

SJ

[Viking]

What constitutes "Healthcare system capacity"?

 

My view, with respect to a virus, is it constitutes all the available resources of a country that can be harnessed to ensure it is managed as well as possible: you do whatever it takes as a nation to avoid the red coloured curve in Liberty’s chart.

 

King County is now buying motels to house the surge of people who need to be quarantined. That motel is now part of the health care system. Creative solutions will be found.

[StubbleJumper]

 

+1; a picture is worth a thousand words. Now we just need to get this picture out to the politicians.

 

 

Well, that's a nice graphic that depicts the theory of taking protective measures.  Conveniently, the that graphic the protective measures are just adequate to not outstrip the capacity of the health care system  ;D .  But, Castanza's question is the right one.  "What is the capacity of the health care system?"

 

Our dirty little secret in Canada is that we surpass our system capacity nearly every winter when flu season hits its peak.  Principally older people become ill and require hospitalization and, most years, we have more patients than we have beds resulting in people being treated in hallways.  That graphic almost certainly does not fairly depict what will happen in Canada with Covid-19.  Demand will likely exceed capacity relatively early in the outbreak, and there will likely be inadequate hospital capacity for a number of consecutive months.  If I may be permitted a bit of gallows humour, our only saving grace will be that there might be a considerable number of long-term care spaces that become available over the period of the outbreak...

 

For Canada, re-draw that schematic with the system capacity line going through the centre of the word "Measures" and you might have a fairer depiction of what awaits us.

 

 

SJ