Coronavirus

[Viking]

Viking, what country IS handling this well?  In Canada they kept telling us there was nothing to worry about. Then they pivoted to , well maybe there will be disruptions, be ready to self quarantine.  That isn't going to work, too many selfish people.

 

I have family in health care. They are not prepared, no way.  For small volumes sure, but a mass infection with large numbers needing respiratory help. That is the bigger issue, which is under played by the media. It's the 4 or 5 people for every fatality who survive but need round the clock acute care for an extended period. 

 

Let's not politicize what is clearly a global phenomenon.

 

We will find out in the coming months how individual countries are handling the outbreak. My focus on the US is i am coming at this from an investing perspective. If things get ugly in the US then financial markets are going to tumble.

[Spekulatius]

Interesting to note that Hk stocks have held  up reasonably well. I am watching  CK Holdings and other stocks and they are down maybe a fe % with no panic selling at all. Of course they have gotten whacked already due to protests, so maybe they are at a point where the bleeding stops regardless of newsflow, which generally is a very positive sign.

 

Also, the numbers of new cases is down a lot in the Wuhan epicenter? Maybe the needs is all fake, or the containment efforts of the Chinese are actually working.

[Viking]

First US death

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

 

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.

 

The key problem for investors right now is ‘headline risk’. Fundamentals are not going to matter for a while.

 

Everything i am reading right now tells me the US is failing badly in how it is handling this developing crisis. And the key factor in how severe the outbreak gets is how it is handled in the initial stages. This tells me the ‘headlines’ are going to get much worse in the US. And political leadership are going to make it even worse. We may ge at the early stages of a slow moving train wreck....

 

Equity investors are going to see their resolve severely tested as we see 1,000 point swings (both ways) in the coming weeks and months.

 

True, but is this not one of, if not the biggest argument in favor of active managers and astute capital allocators outperforming?

 

The saying "fundamentals dont matter" is valid on the way up and on the way down if you are rationalizing cash yielding zilch. But on the way down, how is people not caring about fundamentals not a huge advantage? The worst thing that can happen, when people dont care and fundamentals dont matter, is multiple contraction, however history has plainly shown us that this only really sticks to things that deserved it. IE who suffered long term from 08? Probably only the financials. Everything else went back to normal and received healthy multiples. Here? Its probably retail and travel stuff. Except retail already carries a shitty multiple, unlike say, financials did in 06.

 

I think if we talk about bias, the big one here is a lot of people who have thought valuations where out of line for a long time see the market crashing and think "I was right, and its about time" and then anchor to that in assessing how much more it "should" go down. But the two are totally unrelated. I mean theres people in that crowd who have thought valuations where out of line since 2013.... Its similar in thought to what I experienced in YE 2018. Everyone I talked to about why the market crash there made sense, at least the ones with semi intelligent rationalizations, gave some kind of derivative spiel about "the Feds been propping things up and oh we were in a bubble all this time", but at the end of the day the market didn't just wake up in November 2018 and go "shit, today we're going to abandon everything thats mattered for the last decade or so and now only consider "this"...thats just not how it works.

 

Further, as far as spread goes, I am curious to see how many cases are found in warmer weather regions. Typically these are much lower. Which could create opportunities in those areas. Particularly places like Florida and Texas. And then for the rest of us, Spring is 3 weeks away, which may bring on some weather related relief, but who knows. Its not hard to see, if say containment is successful at least until warmer weather, there being a vaccine by October/November of next year. Thats often more time than it takes to generate one for the annual flu.

 

I am in the active management boat :-) My goal is not to stay in cash forever. The decision will be:

1.) when to start buying

2.) what stocks

3.) how fast to be more fully invested

 

Not easy. But i do enjoy the journey (although it is stressful at times)

And the input from this board is a great help as well :-)

[Spekulatius]

Viking, what country IS handling this well?  In Canada they kept telling us there was nothing to worry about. Then they pivoted to , well maybe there will be disruptions, be ready to self quarantine.  That isn't going to work, too many selfish people.

 

I have family in health care. They are not prepared, no way.  For small volumes sure, but a mass infection with large numbers needing respiratory help. That is the bigger issue, which is under played by the media. It's the 4 or 5 people for every fatality who survive but need round the clock acute care for an extended period. 

 

Let's not politicize what is clearly a global phenomenon.

 

We will find out in the coming months how individual countries are handling the outbreak. My focus on the US is i am coming at this from an investing perspective. If things get ugly in the US then financial markets are going to tumble.

 

The word on the German stock exchange used to be “ if Wall Street gets the flu, Frankfurt gets pneumonia”. In fact, German markets are down more than US markets.

[Viking]

First US death

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

 

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.

 

The key problem for investors right now is ‘headline risk’. Fundamentals are not going to matter for a while.

 

Everything i am reading right now tells me the US is failing badly in how it is handling this developing crisis. And the key factor in how severe the outbreak gets is how it is handled in the initial stages. This tells me the ‘headlines’ are going to get much worse in the US. And political leadership are going to make it even worse. We may ge at the early stages of a slow moving train wreck....

 

Equity investors are going to see their resolve severely tested as we see 1,000 point swings (both ways) in the coming weeks and months.

 

Here is a recent negative example of ‘headline risk’:

 

China PMI horror show to trigger Q1 downgrades

https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/china-pmi-horror-show-to-trigger-q1-downgrades/

 

China reported its lowest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures in 15 years as the coronavirus outbreak and the glacial pace of resumption after the Lunar New Year holiday thwarted economic activity.

 

The data has raised doubts around claims by Beijing about companies making a high rate of work resumption.

 

This has sent analysts scrambling to rework their quarterly GDP forecasts as the world’s second-largest economy reeled from travel restrictions, supply-chain disruptions and a lethargic resumption of business.

 

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index in February plunged to 35.7 from 50 in January. This is the lowest reading since January 2005 when it was first released and even lower than November 2008’s figure of 38.8 during the Global Financial Crisis.

 

The market had expected a reading of around 46, according to a Reuters poll and this shocking data had analysts recalibrating their numbers.

 

“The sharp drop in China’s manufacturing PMI in February reinforces our view that the normalization in economic activity will be delayed, as reflected in high-frequency growth trackers,” ANZ economists Raymond Yeung and Zhaopeng Xing said in a note.

 

 

[Viking]

.......

Further, as far as spread goes, I am curious to see how many cases are found in warmer weather regions. Typically these are much lower. Which could create opportunities in those areas. Particularly places like Florida and Texas. And then for the rest of us, Spring is 3 weeks away, which may bring on some weather related relief, but who knows. Its not hard to see, if say containment is successful at least until warmer weather, there being a vaccine by October/November of next year. Thats often more time than it takes to generate one for the annual flu.

 

Expert: There's a 'million-dollar question' surrounding coronavirus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-contagious-winter-204159834.html

 

Other experts have asserted that the virus may simply become a permanent part of illnesses that transpire as a result of cold weather, like the common cold or the flu.

 

Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiology professor, told The Atlantic that if the virus continues to spread and be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

 

Other infectious disease experts echoed a similar sentiment.

 

"We know respiratory viruses are very seasonal, but not exclusively," William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University, told CNN. "One would hope that the gradual spring will help this virus recede. We can't be sure of that."

 

Regardless of whether the coronavirus is likely to be a winter phenomenon or not, "this is going to be with us for some time — it's endemic in human populations and not going to go away without a vaccine," Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Business Insider.

[Castanza]

We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

 

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

 

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

 

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

My point is merely, that every health care system in situations like this will eventually fail, if it's not saturated [by setup & design] by personal integrity, professionalism [professional independence [ <- ? ]] & intellectual honesty.

I agree

 

 

I doubt there are any healthcare systems designed to handle pandemic type events. I’d imagine if you go to Canada and US hospitals you will see layouts and bed capacities designed for average capacity. There are zero hospitals out there with 6k empty beds...

 

Also, what country was prepared for this? You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc. But the fact is countries are dealing with the unknown.

 

Even if we look at flu vaccines, they are predominantly synthesized from the previous strain. That’s partly why they are only 50% effective for healthy individuals (according to the CDC). A covid-19 vaccine is unlikely to produce better results. Many experts have already said that this is impossible to contain on a GLOBAL scale. So to Dala’s point I think it’s ignorant to blame any individual healthcare system.

 

On the US system I think the biggest issue is from HMB 1973 when insurance was tied to employers and only employers could claim tax deductions for costs. Add in the lawsuit aspects and your looking at massive cost inflation. Over testing as a result of lawsuit threats is an issue as well. My wife just gave me an example of a a baby she has been working with. It is being kept alive purely by machines. The vowels are completely dead and it has many other developmental issues. It’s been hospitalized for almost 200 days and probably won’t make it much longer. The parents are almost completely absent yet request the best treatment. The baby happens to be blind as well. So the hospital, wanting to avoid lawsuits had to provide corrective surgery to attempt to reverse the blindness. It was probably extremely expensive but if they didn’t, the parents would likely be able to sue on the grounds that they didn’t provide care to the furthest extent.

 

Healthcare in the US is riddled with this kind of stuff. Anyways that’s far enough off topic.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

The burden for world security and r&d is on America's tax payers. Overall, I agree with you. The healthcare system is highly bloated. Insurance is a big waste too. A lot of physicians make surprisingly little (especially when you factor in hours worked, high rates of suicide/depression, etc). I would say that if America pharmaceuticals don't come out with the cure (and I'm not talking about a university), then it'll be perfect fodder for the Sanders of the world to hit them hard (and rightfully so).

 

Boeing, Lockheed and Northrop have remained domiciled in the U.S. though and sell planes/gear abroad and the discount to the gear they sell is not as steep as Pharma discount of U.S. drug prices vs even Canada. So defense co profits are brought back home and they pay U.S. taxes. Compare that to tax inverted pharma co now domiciled in Ireland that Medicare has no power to negotiate with.

 

If the burden of world security is on America, tell that to the Pres who is asking for NATO members to chip in for their fair share.

 

Fact is, the gap between America and ROW has narrowed over past 70 years, so the burden for pharma R&D and other stuff should not rest so disproportionately on Americans.

 

Also, you think that all that excess $$ from ripping of Americans going to drug companies went to more lab benches and scientists? More was probably spent on patent attorneys than scientists (For Abbvie/Humira, it seems like $$ well spent--a great ROI! For patients & society, not so much). I could go on and on, but easier to just stick to Munger's brevity and call the U.S. system a "national disgrace".

 

Like I said, as far as development of an effective treatment/vaccine rollout for Coronavirus is concerned, prepare to be disappointed.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

 

The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

 

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

 

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

 

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

 

In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

 

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

 

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

 

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.

[StubbleJumper]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

 

The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

 

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

 

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

 

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

 

In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

 

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

 

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

 

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.

 

 

Well, on Tuesday, PatofthePig drafted a post for us providing a link to a newspaper article that suggested that chloroquine appears to reduce the length and severity of the coronavirus.  I have not read anything else about it since, but it's interesting that a relatively old, off-the-shelf malaria treatment could end up having another use.  Interestingly, it's been off-patent for 50-ish years now, so if it is actually found to be useful, it might be a treatment that is cheap enough for use by the world's poor.

 

If the US government is trying to pick some low-hanging fruit by testing the efficacy of a broad range of existing medications, I'm all for it.

 

 

SJ

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, Castanza,

 

I'm just trying to make a very specific point here - here we go :

 

Please take a look here : There is no spread of the disease in Denmark.

 

Please listen to the video pointed at 9:14 as start. [Not many here on CoBF can really understand, what this person is saying here. Among the active CoBF members, I suppose there are only kab60, Aurelius & I]].

 

Here is the abbreviation of the statement : "Even if three Danes are now contaminated, there is no spread of the disease in Denmark". (You have to take into consideration if I'm "playing" you, which I'm not - why should I?)

 

The statement was made public by a public servant, called Senior Doctor Anne Hempel Jørgensen, Danish Patient Safety Authority.

 

How on earth could that happen today here in Denmark? - It's out in the air, that at least 46 persons are in quarantine here in tiny Denmark? [With no reporting of the outcome of the quarantine right now?]

 

Who should be in the public line for this? : My Prime Minister, or perhaps my Minister of Health? -It's not going to happen - like in the US - Instead, pick your "prügelknabe" [<- Spekulatius German term], loyal public servant, more or less worn out, ready to get paid for it [to take the fall].

 

The whole thing simply just stinks to me.

[LongHaul]

I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.

I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

 

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

 

I own a small travel related business. While my business is very seasonal, my bookings are down 90% this week compared to the same week last year. And my net bookings are zero, as cancellations (most specifically reference coronavirus) have outweighed new bookings. My business is focused, however, on west coast gateway cities and business travel, which are probably the most affected areas. I agree a rural B&B in a pastoral location may see a benefit, but I think it's more likely people just stay home.

 

Fascinating. Thanks for posting. 

 

Do you have thoughts on the cruise industry? or how bad this is vs prior sars, 9/11?

I was looking at the cruise industry but I also read net booking were ZERO for them recently and am having trouble figuring out if they will stay solvent given how long this could last and  if the deposits come down which would use cash.

 

The 1918 Flu pandemic had 3 waves.  Came and went 3x.

[sculpin]

What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head....

 

 

Summary

 

There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?

 

In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.

 

SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.

 

Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.

 

Long oil and long offshore E&P.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

 

The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

 

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

 

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

 

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

 

In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

 

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

 

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

 

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.

 

 

Well, on Tuesday, PatofthePig drafted a post for us providing a link to a newspaper article that suggested that chloroquine appears to reduce the length and severity of the coronavirus.  I have not read anything else about it since, but it's interesting that a relatively old, off-the-shelf malaria treatment could end up having another use.  Interestingly, it's been off-patent for 50-ish years now, so if it is actually found to be useful, it might be a treatment that is cheap enough for use by the world's poor.

 

If the US government is trying to pick some low-hanging fruit by testing the efficacy of a broad range of existing medications, I'm all for it.

 

 

SJ

 

Malaria is a protozoan parasite. Very diff from a virus. I highly doubt an agent effective against malaria would have effect on this. Coronaviruses aren’t new. The chances that there is a common agent out there effective against them that we do not know about is slim. A lot of noise out there.

 

Strange that Republicans who tout the private sector are relying on gov’t labs to find a cure.

[sculpin]

What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head....

 

 

Summary

 

There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?

 

In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.

 

SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.

 

Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.

 

Long oil and long offshore E&P.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know

 

6.2M bbl Global crude draw last week

Thus, globally there's been close to no draws or builds in crude inventories for the past four weeks.

 

Moreover, preliminary data for the past week indicate that crude stocks in China have actually been declining (20M barrels)!!

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4326853-open-insights-eias-weekly-petroleum-report-02-14-20

[Gregmal]

What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head....

 

 

Summary

 

There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?

 

In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.

 

SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.

 

Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.

 

Long oil and long offshore E&P.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know

 

Two takeaways

 

1) How can this be? Driving and fuel consumption during past crisis periods indicate that people still got on with their lives! They just find other ways to get around

 

2) The travel industry definitely got hit a lot worse with 9/11 and then SARS a back to back double whammy. And still recovered. Triple whammy if you want to include the market bubble bursting in 2000.

[bizaro86]

I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.

I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

 

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

 

I own a small travel related business. While my business is very seasonal, my bookings are down 90% this week compared to the same week last year. And my net bookings are zero, as cancellations (most specifically reference coronavirus) have outweighed new bookings. My business is focused, however, on west coast gateway cities and business travel, which are probably the most affected areas. I agree a rural B&B in a pastoral location may see a benefit, but I think it's more likely people just stay home.

 

Fascinating. Thanks for posting. 

 

Do you have thoughts on the cruise industry? or how bad this is vs prior sars, 9/11?

I was looking at the cruise industry but I also read net booking were ZERO for them recently and am having trouble figuring out if they will stay solvent given how long this could last and  if the deposits come down which would use cash.

 

The 1918 Flu pandemic had 3 waves.  Came and went 3x.

 

I didn't have this business during a past pandemic, so I dont have any good data for comparison. If there are three waves like this with a similar response lasting for months, I won't have this business after this pandemic either. :)

 

Personally, I think airlines are a better bet than cruise lines. I enjoy a cruise, but they are a health risk at the best of times, and their target market is basically the high risk demographic for this disease. Airplanes have lots of air changes and you dont touch that much stuff. By contrast, cruise ships have a buffet for everyone to sneeze on their hands and then touch the food.

 

Both have perishable inventory and high fixed costs,  but I feel like air travel bookings will stay stronger than cruises. I also think the pricing is more rational.

[Spekulatius]

Air travel will rebound much faster than cruises, which are often planned many month ahead. Also, a cruise is just a form of vacation for which there are substitutes, but there aren’t really good substitute for air travel.

[james22]

You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc.

 

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/

[StubbleJumper]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

 

The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

 

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

 

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

 

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

 

In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

 

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

 

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

 

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.

 

 

Well, on Tuesday, PatofthePig drafted a post for us providing a link to a newspaper article that suggested that chloroquine appears to reduce the length and severity of the coronavirus.  I have not read anything else about it since, but it's interesting that a relatively old, off-the-shelf malaria treatment could end up having another use.  Interestingly, it's been off-patent for 50-ish years now, so if it is actually found to be useful, it might be a treatment that is cheap enough for use by the world's poor.

 

If the US government is trying to pick some low-hanging fruit by testing the efficacy of a broad range of existing medications, I'm all for it.

 

 

SJ

 

Malaria is a protozoan parasite. Very diff from a virus. I highly doubt an agent effective against malaria would have effect on this. Coronaviruses aren’t new. The chances that there is a common agent out there effective against them that we do not know about is slim. A lot of noise out there.

 

Strange that Republicans who tout the private sector are relying on gov’t labs to find a cure.

 

 

Of course the chances of finding an existing drug that works effectively against the coronavirus are slim.  But, that doesn't mean that you shouldn't take a look at them.  It's a relatively easy thing to do while other labs are working on a vaccine or antiviral.  One does not preclude the other.

 

You seem to have a bit of a binary political world view.  Personally, I have never met a republican who did not acknowledge that government has an important role in a broad range of areas, including public health.  I have spent a considerable amount of time with libertarians, and even they acknowledge that there are legitimate functions for government to play.  Maybe you are hanging out with more extreme people than me.

 

 

SJ

[Dalal.Holdings]

You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc.

 

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/

 

If you think bringing up how ebola was handled will make this cdc look good, then just lol. This is a clown show in comparison to how ebola was contained. Not enough tests out there by dismantled cdc means people have unknowingly been spreading it. High risk people were denied testing.

 

Supposedly the province of British Columbia has tested more individuals than all of the U.S. (https://globalnews.ca/news/6610416/bc-covid-19-testing-more-than-united-states-premier/). When your boss calls it “Democrats’ hoax” I guess it must not be that important. Oh, how dare I bring politics into this—when POTUS makes a comment like that, it is totally apolitical and rational.

 

But hey, it’s just like the EPA-an unnecessary arm of the govt to be dismantled. Serves no public purpose. Let’s put pseudoscientists in charge of it and see what happens.

[jgyetzer]

I think no matter what the outcome it will not take long now for us to see what the real-world implications are.  The virus is now firmly in the US and will spread quickly.  While the market may respond any which way at any time, we should at least have tangible clues as to how economic and government responses will play out by the end of March.  Could be a setup for opportunity for those willing to observe for just a bit longer.

[Jurgis]

I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)

I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.

 

Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.

 

I agree Dec 2018 it was much cheaper. It is mostly due to my portfolio allocation. I had sold a bunch of stuff in Nov/Dec of 2019 as the expected return on many of my investments went down to mid single digits and I am sitting on a lot of cash going into this week. I was looking at O&G and other dreadful things to invest and still did not find much.

 

So last week is a life saver. Nothing new. A bunch of banks that I sold became at least reasonable enough to start adding back. Also bought Booking. Smaller positions in Rolls Royce and Carnival.

 

Vinod

 

Thanks. I bought some JPM and BKNG too.

[Viking]

So much that is not understood about the virus...

 

14% of Recovered Covid-19 Patients in Guangdong Tested Positive Again

- https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-26/14-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-in-guangdong-tested-positive-again-101520415.html

[james22]

You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc.

 

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/

 

If you think bringing up how ebola was handled will make this cdc look good, then just lol.

 

If you think that was the point, LOL.