Jump to content

sculpin

Member
  • Posts

    828
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by sculpin

  1. Now sitting on about $1.40 cash/share at the corporate level with an additional $33mm to come in if the rest of the DPM warrants are exercised by next May. Dundee Corp.'s senior management will host a conference call on Monday, Nov. 16, 2020, at 10 a.m. ET, to discuss the company's third quarter 2020 results. Third quarter 2020 results conference call and webcast Date: Monday, Nov. 16, 2020 Time: 10 a.m. ET Webcast: on Dundee's website Live call: 1-888-231-8191 or 1-647-427-7450 Replay: 1-855-859-2056 or 1-416-849-0833 Replay passcode: 5533506 Dundee plans to issue a news release containing the third quarter 2020 results after market close on Friday, Nov. 13, 2020, and will also post it to the company's website. The conference call will be archived for replay until Monday, Nov. 23, 2020, at midnight. An archive of the audio webcast will also be available at Dundee's website.
  2. Globe says insiders buying at Dundee Corp. 2020-08-10 08:51 ET - In the News Shares issued 99,977,865 DC.A Close 2020-08-07 C$ 1.42 Also In the News (C:DPM) Dundee Precious Metals Inc The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Aug. 8, edition that on May 13, Dundee Corp. ($1.42) raised $151.8-million in gross proceeds via the sale of 23.9 million Dundee Precious Metals ($9.80) shares. The Globe's guest columnist Ted Dixon writes in the Who Is Buying and Selling column that Dundee is sitting on a cash pile available to support what chief executive officer Jonathan Goodman has said is the firm's strategic focus on the junior mining sector. Mr. Goodman and Dundee Corp. director Murray Sinclair are literally buying into the junior mining pivot. Since May 19, Mr. Goodman has spent $2-million buying Dundee Corp. shares at an average price of $1.23.
  3. Why not buy a place in Sequim or the San Juans? Much drier & sunnier than Seattle, beautiful location and close. The Olympic Rain Shadow is a small region northwest of the city of Seattle which experiences significantly dryer and brighter weather than surrounding locations. The rain shadow encompasses the towns of Sequim, Port Angeles, Port Townsend, Coupeville, and Victoria BC, as well as much of the San Juan Islands. For details on climate, precipitation, and an Olympic rain shadow map, see our location page; for current conditions, check our Sequim weather station, or click here for a detailed Sequim weather forecast. Here are some highlights from our days of sunshine studies: Winter (Nov-Jan) saw 5X as many mostly sunny days in the shadow vs. Seattle. Winter saw only 1/4 as many dreary days in the shadow vs. Seattle. Spring (Feb-May) saw the highest number of "rain shadow" days per month, at nearly 8! Summer (Jul-Sep) saw rain shadow areas and Seattle with nearly equal mostly sunny days. Port Angeles was definitely *in* the rain shadow, with quite similar benefits to Sequim. Anacortes was on the north eastern fringe of the rain shadow. http://olympicrainshadow.com/
  4. http://prefblog.com/ GMP To Suspend Preferred Share Dividends July 31st, 2020 GMP Capital Inc. has announced: DIVIDENDS The Company’s net working capital as at June 30, 2020 was $122.8 million. While this level of liquidity is sufficient to pay dividends, under Section 38(3) of the Business Corporations Act (Ontario), the Company’s governing corporate statute, the Company cannot pay a dividend if there are reasonable grounds for believing that the net realizable value of the Company’s assets would be less than the aggregate of its liabilities and its legal stated capital of all classes of shares (common and preferred). Due to the current level of stated capital of the Company’s outstanding common and preferred shares, the Board of Directors has reasonable grounds to believe that this test would not be satisfied as at September 30, 2020, the date on which its quarterly preferred share dividend would normally be paid. As such the Company is suspending the dividends on its preferred shares. At its next meeting of common shareholders, the Company intends to seek the approval of its common shareholders to reduce the stated capital of the common shares to allow the Company to resume paying dividends, including accrued, unpaid dividends on the preferred shares. Dividends on the outstanding preferred shares are cumulative and will continue to accrue in accordance with the rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions associated with each series of preferred shares. Affected issues are GMP.PR.B and GMP.PR.C. These issues have been on Review-Developing at DBRS for a long time, due to uncertainty regarding the proposed deal with Richardson GMP. It looks like the uncertainty became a lot more uncertain! Of particular interest is the following quote (emphasis added): At its next meeting of common shareholders, the Company intends to seek the approval of its common shareholders to reduce the stated capital of the common shares to allow the Company to resume paying dividends, including accrued, unpaid dividends on the preferred shares. So there’s no indication as to how much of a reduction in stated capital the company will seek. A sharp reduction in stated capital at Aimia allowed the company to resume dividends on the common and to execute a Substantial Issuer Bid for that common, neither of which was good for the preferred shareholders. Thanks to Assiduous Reader DR for bring this to my attention!
  5. GMP just suspended their preferred dividend for what looks like a technical reason / incompetence but I don’t know for sure. Essentially, they need to have a shareholder meeting to reduce the stated capital and from what I can tell they haven’t had their 2019 AGM yet so it should be by year end. Anyway, another bad idea in a string of bad ideas from me. Apologies. Most likely only a bad idea in the short term. If one can use price weakness to add to the GMP prefs at lower levels on this news, when the dividend is restored later this year, will turn out to be an even better idea.
  6. Research Note - Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM:TSX,$9.09|BUY $13.00 TRGT) FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH We have revised our model and target price following our conversation with DPM on Friday, July 03. DPM is a stable and solid performing mid-tier producer. It generates cashflow from stable, low risk jurisdictions. And with its recent additions to the TSX composite index it has the requisite liquidity that represents a company having a significant re-rating potential. Moreover, its return of cash to shareholders, through a quarterly dividend of US$0.02/share and share repurchase program, is attractive to investors. DPM is backed by solid low-cost production which is growing and a cost structure that is declining. Q1 saw stellar production of 73 Koz Au and 9.4 Mlbs copper at a low AISC of $593/oz. Free cash flow is expected to be around $140 M to $180 M per year in the next three years. DPM remains on track to meet it production and cost guidance for 2020 at all of its operations. We maintain our BUY rating and have revised our 12-month target price to C$13.00/share (from C$9.50/share). We spoke with the Company to gauge its general working conditions during COVID-19, the Company’s full year guidance and its Q2/19 expectations. DPM’s production is progressing well and is largely uninterrupted. Chelopech and Ada Tepe mines in Bulgaria continue to operate fully and in line with guidance. Tsumeb, the smelter in Namibia, is also operating in line with guidance albeit with reduced staff in certain areas, as government mandated. Q1 Result Review: In Q1 DPM reported a record revenue of $152M (+9% Q/Q from $140M) and generated $77.5M in EBITDA (+41% Q/Q from $55M). Free cash flow came in at $49.2M (+315% Q/Q from $11.8M). In Q1/20 DPM’s consolidated gold production of 73.0 Koz and copper production of 9.4 Mlbs were achieved at an impressive cash cost of $511/oz and an AISC of $593/oz net of byproduct. Lower production costs, higher realized metal prices and lower sustaining and growth capital, as well as a solid production profile, contributed to an impressive AISC. Tsumeb processed 65 Kt also beat our estimate (MPI est. 55 Kt), at a cost of $357/t. The Company ended first quarter debt free, with $13.6M cash in hand and an undrawn portion of RCF of $175M. It expects to fully settle its prepaid forward gold sale of 20.97 Koz in 2020. Valuation: We maintain our BUY rating and have revised our 12-month target price to C$13.00/share (from C$9.50/share). Our valuation is now based on a 1.3x NAV (from a 1.0x NA) and is based on a long-term gold and copper price of $1,550/oz and $2.75/lbs. DPM is currently trading at 0.9x our NAV estimate. Our NAV multiple is based on DPM’s strong track record of delivering on expectations since it declared commercial at Ada Tepe and completed ramping up in Q2/19 and transitioned from a single asset to multi asset gold producer. DPM is trading at a valuation below to inline with other mid to large-cap producers. Its 2020E P/CFPS of 4.5x and 2021E P/CFPS of 3.7x reflects a significant discount to peers that are trading at 2020E P/CFPS of 7.2x and 2021E P/CFPS of 5.2x. For the rest of the year we expect DPM to continue to close that gap. With large capital investment ending, focus has turned to production optimization and cash flow generation. Its recently instituted quarterly dividend of US$0.02/share reflects its cash flow generating potential. We are modeling an annual production of 272 Koz of gold and 37Mlbs of copper at an AISC of $717/oz, net of byproduct. For Q2/20 we expect a consolidated gold production of 67.75 Koz (40.67 Koz for Chelopech and 27.07 Koz for Ada Tepe) and 9.35Mlbs of copper, at an AISC of ~US$700/oz Au produced. 2020 Production Guidance: For FY20 consolidated gold production is expected to be between 257 Koz and 299 Koz. Copper production guidance is between 35 Mlbs to 40 Mlbs. The guidance for the Tsumeb smelter processed concentrate is 230 Kt to 265 Kt. DPM is guiding for 2020 AISC to be between US$700 and US$780/oz sold, net of byproduct. E: research@mpartners.ca www.mpartners.ca 70 York Street Suite 1500 Toronto, ON Canada M5J 1S9
  7. Top Insider Buys and Sells Past Week Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction Volume or Value Price Jun 23/20 Jun 23/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Indirect Ownership Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 47,600 $1.31 Jun 22/20 Jun 22/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 46,400 $1.30 Jun 19/20 Jun 19/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 50,800 $1.29 Jun 17/20 Jun 17/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 3,700 $1.25 Jun 15/20 Jun 15/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Preferred Shares Cumulative Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series 3 10 - Acquisition in the public market 1,000 $15.50 Jun 15/20 Jun 15/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 13,000 $1.21 Jun 12/20 Jun 12/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 16,000 $1.23 Jun 11/20 Jun 11/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Preferred Shares 5-Year Rate Reset First Pref. Shares, Series 2 10 - Acquisition in the public market 2,200 $15.70 Jun 11/20 Jun 11/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Subordinate Voting Shares Class A 10 - Acquisition in the public market 20,400 $1.23 Jun 10/20 Jun 10/20 Sinclair, Alistair Murray Control or Direction Preferred Shares 5-Year Rate Reset First Pref. Shares, Series 2 10 - Acquisition in the public market 17,800 $15.82
  8. CRWN - CROWN CAPITAL PARTNERS INC - Company Website http://www.crowncapital.ca Wed 24 Jun 14:25:15 EDT - Trade times are ET. News times are ET. Bid/ask/vol sizes in thousands. Sym-X Bid - Ask Last Chg % Vol $Vol #Tr Open-Hi-Lo Year Hi-Lo Last Trade News Delay CRWN - T 0.2 3.56 · 3.65 0.2 3.60 14.1 51 13 3.60 3.65 3.60 8.53 3.49 14:00:26 Jun 15 realtime I have been buying some of the convertible debt (low $70’s) & equity ($3.60) in Crown Capital CRWN (TSX) this week. Book is currently over $10 but I would expect it to drop due to loan impairments in the current environment – Current share price is probably way overdone to the downside though. Management is large holders of shares. In May they suspended their dividend to conserve capital that they say will be used to deploy into their strategy and repurchase shares. There has been some insider buying at these levels. This Company would be a great candidate to be taken private or purchased by a larger player in the mezzanine, private debt market. Latest research from May… CROWN CAPITAL PARTNERS INC. (TSX: CRWN) 12-Month Target: $8.25 Last Close: $4.15 Recommendation: BUY SPECIAL SITUATIONS RESEARCH Implied Total Return: 98.8% COMPANY DESCRIPTION: Crown Capital Partners Inc. (“Crown”, the “Company”, or “CRWN”) is a specialty finance company which provides tailored capital solutions, with minimal or no ownership dilution, to middle-market companies. In addition, management is currently working on Income Streaming Initiatives (power). May 6, 2020 Event. Q1/20 Results, Strategic Update, Dividend Suspension. Highlights. ▪ Revenue for the quarter of $6.4M came in below our estimate of $9.8M and the street at $11.5M ▪ Net loss of $1.2M for the quarter was below our estimate of $1.7M of earnings which was driven by a net unrealized loss on investments of $3.6M. ▪ Total assets increased to $338M at quarter end from ~$300M at the end of 2019 as a result of the previously announced new loans completed during the quarter to Centric Health and CCI wireless. COVID-19 Impact. ▪ Management expects most companies in the portfolio to be impacted to some degree while the analysis of the impact is ongoing. ▪ The portfolio is currently highlighted as stable, and CRWN does not expect any failures at this time. ▪ Interest payments have been steady to date. ▪ Energy exposure is focused on natural gas. Dividend Suspension and Business Repositioning. ▪ In light of the current market environment, CRWN is accelerating a repositioning of the company/balance sheet to focus on: Development of revenue sources where CRWN can be a direct investor and asset manager of capital pools such as the distributed power opportunity. Increased focus on capital light business through a decreased position in the Crown Partners Fund toward a target of 20% or less from the current 39%. ▪ In order to maximize funds available for the repositioning of the business and share buybacks CRWN is suspending dividends for the time being (likely 9-12 months). Outlook. ▪ Management highlights the fact that economic crisis has in the past created opportunity for alternative finance providers which they hope to capitalize on.
  9. Also, Sinclair/Earlston buying continues... On June 11th they added 20,400 DC.A and 2,200 DC.PR.B. Total shares bought by SInclair in the past three weeks: DC.A: 1,226,000 DC.PR.B: 102,200 DC.PR.D: 32,600 Total value of insider buying in the past month including Jonathan Goodman's 1.5M share DC.A purchase a few weeks back is about $5.4M.
  10. Jonathan Goodman bought 1.5M shares @ $1.15 on May 15. Always nice when the CEO buys 1.5% of the company. Insiders and Polar own approximately 35% of the shares outstanding... sizable buybacks will further squeeze out the marginal sellers.
  11. M Partners note on DC.... We have a Research Note on Dundee Corporation (DC.A – TSX). Dundee Corporation released Q1/20 financial results after market close yesterday. In the quarter, Dundee recorded a net loss of $166.4M ($1.63/share), compared to earnings of $14.9M ($0.21/share) in Q1/19. The majority of the loss was driven by 84%-owned United Hydrocarbon International Corp. (UHIC), which reported a net loss of $117.5M primarily related to a fair value change in royalty interest and associated contingent bonus payments. This makes a minimal impact on our view of the value of Dundee for the following reasons: The fair value change is largely driven by the steep decline in the price of oil, which could rebound once the economy restarts, or within the 2-3 years before first oil is expected for UHIC. Thus future quarters could see a gain on value in this investment. Assumptions were also negatively affected by changes in the discount rate and probability of success, and pushing out first oil by one year Our core book value analysis always attributed zero value to UHIC's business (Resource Assets on the balance sheet), since it was based on a binary event of achieving first oil in Chad, with contingent bonus payments for meeting certain milestones and royalties on oil produced. In our view, this is additional upside, and fluctuations in the interim period are quite irrelevant to Dundee's value. The loss in the quarter was also impacted by a $61.1M depreciation in the market value of investments, including a $39.8M decline in value of Dundee Precious Metals (DPM-TSX | BUY $9.50 TRGT). DPM is by far its largest position, and since quarter end has appreciated 40% ($64M). Other core positions such as Jervois Mining (JRV-TSXV | N/R) and Reunion Gold (RGD-TSXV | N/R) have appreciated since March 31. Subsequent to quarter-end on May 7, Dundee announced that it had entered into an agreement with RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and Stifel GMP to sell 23.9M units of Dundee Precious Metals at $6.35/unit. Each unit consists of 1 common share owned by DC.A and one-half common share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $8.00 for 12 months. Through this transaction which closed today, Dundee will be generating $151.8M in cash, and through warrant exercise would generate a total of $247.4M. Prior to this sale, Dundee held 35.9M shares of DPM, or 19.83%. It will now own 6.62%, and less than 1% if warrants are fully exercised. Our current core book value analysis indicates a target price of $2.60/share, in line with our previous analysis in August 2019 but with significant improvement in margin of safety considering we estimate $1.55 in cash/share following the sale of DPM and repayment of $10.1M in debt drawn in Q1. While this was a tough quarter for Dundee Corp. and the business is not immune to COVID-19, we believe that its exposure to mining will serve DC.A shareholders well in the near future, and with the massive cash injection from the sale of DPM, the current share price's discount to our core book value is even more unjustified. In these uncertain times, cash is king. While management is assessing potential uses for the cash, we believe it is highly probable we see a larger repurchase of preferred shares (Series 2 and 3, both with ongoing NCIBs) and an SIB/NCIB for the common shares. Research T. 416.603.4343 F. 416.603.8608 E: research@mpartners.ca www.mpartners.ca 70 York Street Suite 1500 Toronto, ON Canada M5J 1S9
  12. Good read on Dundee from Ravensource Fund - smart activist style investors. Let's hope they are able to convince the Goodman's to chop G&A more, get more aggressive on selling non core & core assets at decent values & direct proceeds to increase value of both the common & preferred... Dundee Corp. (“Dundee”) Through a combination of an increase in market prices and dividends earned, our investment in Dundee’s preferred shares was our top performer in 2019, generating a total gross return of 52.5% and increasing the value of your Ravensource investment by 3.4%. Dundee is a Canadian, publicly listed holding company (TSX: DC.A) with investments across a broad spectrum of industries. Ravensource has an investment in Dundee’s Series 2 & 3 preferred shares, which are the highest-ranking securities in Dundee’s capital structure. We believe the preferred shares are mis-priced – the company’s tangible assets are worth several times our purchase price of approximately $12 per $25 preferred share – and there are win-win restructuring initiatives to capitalize on the mis-pricing that the Stornoway Team can help actualize. Our 2019 performance was a result of actions taken by Dundee to de-risk itself and create material asset value of which the preferred shareholders were the prime beneficiaries. Stornoway identified and advocated certain of these initiatives directly to Dundee’s CEO in late 2018 and early 2019. Most importantly, Dundee removed the #1 risk facing our investment by converting $82 million of Series 5 preferred shares that ranked equally with our preferreds into common shares that rank behind us (the “Equitization”). In effect, we jumped the queue to the claim on Dundee’s assets. While the Equitization was the watershed moment, other value-enhancing milestones in 2019 included non-core asset sales; a buyback program for our Series 2 & 3 preferreds; and Dundee Precious Metals completing its second gold mine, enabling the initiation of a dividend to Dundee. Despite its increase in price over 2019, Dundee’s preferreds continue to trade at just 60 cents on the dollar. This large discount persists even though the market value of Dundee’s publicly traded stake in Dundee Precious Metals alone is worth 2.7x the preferred shares’ market price, and Dundee’s common shares have a market capitalization of more than $115 million despite ranking behind the preferred shares. If the markets are rational, our preferred shares should trade closer to $25. But to do so, it will take a more encompassing solution than the company has embarked on to date. In 2019, much was achieved to de-risk Dundee and increase the value of our investment. However, neither we — nor the market — are satisfied. Dundee must aggressively expand its efforts to stream-line its bloated overhead, sell non-core assets and opportunistically restructure its liabilities. Rest assured, in 2020, we will up our ante and intensify our engagement with the company to enhance Dundee’s stakeholder value and capture the value lying dormant in its preferred shares. http://www.ravensource.ca/storage/documents/1587402336-Ravensource_Fund-Letter_to_Unitholders-December_31__2019.pdf
  13. In the MD&A, Dundee have marked their investment in Taurx down to $40mm which represents just over $30 US per Taurx share. applied a value per share of US$30.60, the equivalent of a 50% discount to the volume-weighted average price of ordinary shares issued from treasury during 2015 and 2016. The new investor in Taurx is buying shares at $200 US which is 6.5 times the carrying value of DC's Taurx investment on the books. While these shares do have other rights (marketing of drug in Asia etc), the $200US/share value would value Dundee's interest in Taurx at $260 million Canadian or about $2.50 per DC share. The investor subscribed for 500,000 class B preference shares at an aggregate subscription amount of US$100 million or US$200/share. The new class of preference shares does not have any liquidation preferences but convey to the holder a call option to acquire commercialization rights for LMTX® over certain territories in Asia. The preferences shares are convertible to ordinary shares on a one-to-one basis upon the attainment of pre-specified regulatory and/or listing objectives alongside the injection of a further material amount of cash.
  14. 6.2M bbl Global crude draw last week Thus, globally there's been close to no draws or builds in crude inventories for the past four weeks. Moreover, preliminary data for the past week indicate that crude stocks in China have actually been declining (20M barrels)!! https://seekingalpha.com/article/4326853-open-insights-eias-weekly-petroleum-report-02-14-20
  15. What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head.... Summary There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up? In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient. SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004. Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020. Long oil and long offshore E&P. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know
  16. Macro Enterprises (TSX - MCR - $4.00) Macro Enterprises is one of the top 5 most attractive stocks out of more than two thousand microcap stocks that we ranked using our quantitative screen. Moreover, the mid case and high case intrinsic value estimates are far above the current stock price. As a result, we are “trembling with greed” to buy this stock for the Boole Microcap Fund. http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/ First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics. Here are the numbers for Macro Enterprises: EV/EBITDA = 1.37 P/E = 3.72 P/B = 1.08 P/CF = 3.51 P/S = 0.26 These figures—especially EV/EBITDA, P/E, and P/S—make Macro Enterprises one of the top ten cheapest companies out of over two thousand that we ranked. Macro has built a record backlog of $870+ million in net revenue over the next few years. That is more than 7x the company’s current market cap. Presently the company has at least a 16% EBITDA margin. This translates into a net profit margin of at least 11%. That means the company will earn at least 80% of its current market cap over the next few years. (Peak net profit margins were around 15%—at these levels, the company would earn more than 100% of its market cap over the next few years.) Intrinsic value scenarios: Low case: Macro is probably not worth less than book value, which is $3.61 per share. That’s about 7% lower than today’s share price of $3.89. Mid case: The company is probably worth at least EV/EBITDA of 5.0. That translates into a share price of $10.39, which is 167% higher than today’s $3.89. High case: Macro may easily be worth at least EV/EBITDA of 8.0. That translates into a share price of $16.17, which is about 316% higher than today’s $3.89.
  17. FY20 we model FCF of US$136 mln for an impressive 19% FCF yield January 9, 2020 Dundee Precious Metals Inc. DPM (TSX): C$5.18 Stock Rating: Outperform Target: C$8.50 Risk Rating: Above Average Ada Tepe Supports Solid Operational Q4/19 Ada Tepe FY19 Production at Top End of Guidance Range Production beat. Q4/19 consolidated gold production of 69.5k oz (NBF 65.2k oz), up 3.9k oz q/q and 7% above our estimates. Gold sales of 82.1k oz (NBF 80.6k oz) were up 42.5k oz q/q as the Q3/19 sales deficit was resolved, as expected. Copper production of 10.0 mln lbs (NBF 9.1 mln lbs) was flat q/q. Mine-by-mine highlights include: ● Q4/19 Chelopech production of 43.0k oz (NBF 40.9k oz), up 2.7k oz q/q and modestly above our estimates. FY19 production of 173.4k oz was in line with the guidance range (155-187k oz). ● Q4/19 Ada Tepe production of 26.5k oz (NBF 24.3k oz), up 1.7k oz q/q, delivering continued solid performance in its second quarter of commercial production. Positively, FY19 production of 57.2k oz lands near the top end of the guidance range (45-60k oz). Measurable FCF on deck. After preliminary updates, our estimates have improved slightly, and we model Q4/19 FCF of ~US$27 mln (vs. Q3/19 of US$10.2 mln), benefiting from higher gold sales and metal prices (~US$1,483/oz in Q4/19 vs. US$1,461/oz in Q3/19), with offset from commencement of prepaid gold sales (~46.2k oz over 6 qtrs). Our Q4/19 FCF estimates factor DPM's ~US$7.7 mln investment in INV Metals Inc. (INV: TSX) which closed Oct. 28, 2019. Looking ahead, for FY20 we model FCF of US$136 mln for an impressive 19% FCF yield. Maintaining Outperform rating and $8.50 target. Trading at P/NAV 0.68x (peers 0.80x), P/CF20 4.0x (peers 4.5x) and P/ CF21 3.0x (peers 4.0x). Our target is based on 5.0x EV/EBITDA NTM (100%). DPM reports financials after market close on Feb. 13 with the conference call scheduled for Feb. 14 that 9 AM EST (dial-in: 1-844-264-2104). Don DeMarco, (416) 869-7572, don.demarco@nbc.ca Associate: Rabi Nizami, (416) 869-7925, rabi.nizami@nbc.ca Associate: Harmen Puri, (416) 869-8045, harmen.puri@nbc.ca
  18. Jim Roumell Author’s reply » Dundee liquidates Red Leaf for $9.2 million 30% above our estimate of $7 million. Dundee sells 500K shares of DPM. finance.yahoo.com/... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310589-dundees-dpm-stake-equals-companys-total-enterprise-value-free-option-on-everything-else
  19. Dundee's DPM Stake Equals Company's Total Enterprise Value - Free Option On Everything Else https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310589-dundees-dpm-stake-equals-companys-total-enterprise-value-free-option-on-everything-else
  20. Couple of things pushing DPM value up to the current $6 level. Canaccord initiation with $8.50 target. RBC comes out with 2020 outlook & $7.75 price. Peter Imhof, one of the better small cap guys in Canada, recommended it. It is dirt cheap at 3 times EBITDA. DPM Top Pick by AGF Dundee Precious Metals listed as a BNN top pick by Peter Imhof at AGF... nice to see generalist investment managers starting to see good value here. He added to it after meeting managers. Strong cash flow in recent quarters. They will reach middle or top of their production guidance. Trades at a really cheap valuation (and other metrics) vs. peers--trading at 6x next year's earnings. Expect a strong Q4 with super-strong cash flow, and given their mines are ramping up with good metal grades. Canaccord initiates on DPM with $8.50 target Dundee Precious Metals (DPM) – Initiating Coverage with Buy. TP $8.50 (curr. $5.07) DPM is a multi-mine precious metals producer with two operating mines in Bulgaria, a promising gold project in Serbia, and a smelter in Namibia With Ada Tepe now built and ramped up, DPM is expected to generate substantial FCF from 2020 onward given ~50% overall AISC margins We forecast a 20% FCF yield for 2020 based on the current share price, with similar yields for 2021 and 2022, and we note that DPM offers the highest FCF yield in our mid-cap precious metals coverage universe We discuss the company's capital allocation criteria in the body of the report, but note here that we believe management is likely to initiate some form of shareholder return program in 2020 (or earlier) DPM has substantially de-risked itself in 2019 with Ada Tepe entering commercial production, and we believe the stock will re-rate over 2020 as the market begins to realize this At the current share price, the company trades at just 2.4x our 2020 EBITDA estimate 0.51x NAV, vs. the peer group averages of 5.1x and 1.21x, respectively RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Mark Mihaljevic, CFA (Analyst) (416) 842-3804 mark.mihaljevic@rbccm.com Wayne Lam, CFA (Analyst) (416) 842-7840 wayne.lam@rbccm.com Cole Chessell, CA, CPA (Associate) (416) 842-4126 cole.chessell@rbccm.com Sector: Precious Minerals & Diamonds - small/ mid capD December 2, 2019 Dundee Precious Metals Inc. Reiterate Outperform: Positioned for a strong 2020 following a transition year Our view: We expect DPM shares to outpace peers in 2020 given our outlook for stronger operational results, improving financials, and an attractive valuation. We expect investors to focus on operational updates at Ada Tepe, stronger free cash flow, and the company's capital allocation strategy. Reiterate Outperform and C$7.50 price target. Key points: Ada Tepe expected to drive a strong 2020 We expect DPM to deliver a stronger 2020 given a full year contribution from Ada Tepe with the operation having reached design throughput and recoveries in Sep/19, steady output from Chelopech, and no major shutdowns planned at Tsumeb. This is expected to see ~20% growth in gold production (265 Koz from 224 Koz) with AISC declining by ~10% ($730/oz from $811/oz). As a result, we forecast the company adding $180M in net cash to the balance sheet in 2020, up from $37M in 2019 (negative $3M YTD). We believe demonstrating the company's underlying free cash flow potential can help drive further upside in the shares. Capital allocation to become a focus as free cash flow grows Looking to 2020, we believe the primary focus for investors will transition from execution at Ada Tepe to its capital allocation strategy. Beyond reinvesting in brownfields exploration/optimization opportunities, we expect Dundee to initially focus on de-levering its balance sheet ($14M repaid on the credit facility in Q3 with $27M outstanding) and building a strong cash balance (targeting ~$50M). By mid-2020, we believe DPM could be in a position to begin returning capital to shareholders (buyback or modest dividend). Note, we do not expect a significant capital commitment to the Timok gold project in Serbia given the longerdated nature of the asset and focus on optimizing its economics. While the company recently invested C$10M in INV Metals, we do not expect strategic investments in the juniors to become a key tenet of its strategy. Constructive outlook supported by attractive valuation We estimate Dundee currently trades at a 2% discount to Junior producer peers (36% vs. Intermediates) on long-term NAV, relative to an average discount of 2% over the past year and 21% since the start of 2016 (33% and 37% vs. Intermediates). While the company has closed some of its historical discount to peers, we believe shares can continue to re-rate higher over the coming quarters as operational consistency is demonstrated at Ada Tepe, free cash flow builds, and balance sheet becomes more robust with potential for return of capital. Reiterate Outperform and C$7.50 price target We reiterate our positive outlook on DPM shares given the company's improving operational/financial results and attractive valuation. Maintain C$7.50 target as we have made only modest changes to our forecasts.
  21. Dundee's holding in TauRX... At September 30, 2019, the Corporation held an approximate 4% interest in TauRx. The Corporation has determined that the fair value of its investment at September 30, 2019 was $41.1 million. In determining the fair value of its interest, the Corporation applied a value per share of US$30.60, the equivalent of a 50% discount to the volume-weighted average price of shares issued from treasury during 2015 and 2016.
  22. Ravensource comment on DC & preferreds... Dundee Corp. (“Dundee”) Dundee (TSX: DC.A) is a publicly listed holding company headquartered in Toronto, with investments in a number of sectors including mining, oil & gas, real estate, hotels / gaming and agriculture. After a thorough due diligence process, Ravensource began investing in Dundee’s Series 2 & 3 preferred shares – the most senior securities in its capital structure – in August 2018. In March 2019, Dundee announced it would convert its $82 million of Series 5 preferred shares, which had ranked equally with our preferreds, into equity which ranks behind us (the “Series 5 Equitization”). For us, this was a watershed event as it significantly expanded the intrinsic value of our preferred shares while materially reducing their risk. In effect, we jumped the queue to Dundee’s assets. To illustrate, Dundee’s most valuable asset is likely its $175 million stake in publicly traded Dundee Precious Metals Inc (“DPM”). Prior to the Series 5 Equitization, there were $212 million of Series 2, 3 and 5 preferred shares outstanding, meaning that the DPM stake covered 83% of the total preferred share face value. Post the Series 5 Equitization, only $130 million of preferred shares remained outstanding. With first dibs on Dundee assets, the preferreds’ $25 face value is now 135% covered by the DPM stake alone. Factoring in the other Dundee assets, we conservatively believe that the face value of Dundee’s preferred shares is more than 230% covered. As we only paid 48 cents on the dollar for our preferred shares, our purchase price is almost 5x covered by Dundee’s assets. It is very rare to find an asset with as high a margin of safety as Dundee’s preferred shares that also has a path to a very high potential return of 100%. While the value of our investment increased substantially as a result of the Series 5 Equitization, the market price of the preferreds did not. We capitalized on the disconnect by buying more. Our objective is now to capture the difference between price and their value. To put a finer point on this, the preferred shares ended the period trading at just under $13.00 per share. Contractually, we are owed $25.00 per share and must receive this before any economic distribution flows to the common equity. As we believe the $25.00 per share to be well covered by the assets, this $12.00 difference is our opportunity. Capturing this gap is easier said than done, as unlike bonds, preferred shares have no maturity date or mechanism to force repayment meaning that price and value can remain disconnected for a long period of time. While this difference persists, we will earn an attractive 12.1% dividend yield on our preferred shares, equivalent to 14.5% bond interest factoring in the tax advantage of dividends. Ultimately, the company / common shareholders will have to address the discount as they cannot monetize their economic stake while it persists. As active investors, we are engaged with various stakeholders to surface a solution that would both enhance Dundee’s shareholder value and drive returns for Ravensource.
  23. We have a Research Note on Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM – TSX). Yesterday Dundee Precious Metals Inc. announced strong Q3/19 production results. Ada Tepe had a strong quarter as a result of higher grade processed. In Q3 the mill processed higher grades that were stockpiled during commissioning. Chelopech is on track to achieve guidance, while as anticipated due to lower grades, gold production and recovery in Q3 was slightly lower. DPM is maintaining its production guidance of between 180 Koz Au and 221 Koz Au; and 32 Mlbs Cu and 37 Mlbs Cu. Production however was higher than our expectation, coming in at 66 Koz gold and 10 Mlbs copper. Still as a result of concentrate shipment timing, payable metals in concentrate sold for both mines were lower: 38 Koz gold and 6.6 Mlbs copper. DPM notes it will increase Q4/19 shipments. We highlight Chelopech and Ada Tepe are in line to meet FY19 guidance. The Ada Tepe Mine has successfully completed ramp-up and has been operating at full design tonnage of 2,500 tpd and 85% gold recovery. DPM highlighted that construction of the integrated mine waste facility cells were completed and the settlement time of tailings has improved, allowing the plant design capacity to be achieved. DPM is constructing additional cells that will allow further flexibility. The focus should now shift to production optimization. INVESTMENT THESIS DPM produces gold and copper from two mines in Bulgaria: the Chelopech Mine and Ada Tepe. It also operates Tsumeb, a concentrate smelter in Namibia. In Q2/19, DPM declared commercial production at Ada Tepe and has just completed ramping up. Additionally, DPM has a PEA stage pipeline gold project, Timok, in Serbia and a portfolio of investments, including 10% of Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. (SBB:TSX). · DPM is positioned to be a long-term, low-cost gold producer with a strong resource and reserve base, a solid management team, near term production growth, and free cash flow from mining friendly jurisdictions. The Company has strong institutional backing. · The Chelopech Mine (NAV: $762M) is DPM’s lower cost flagship mine with annual production of ~200 Koz Au at a low cash cost of ~$400/oz and AISC of ~$650/oz. For the foreseeable future, Chelopech will continue to produce the lion’s share of DPM’s gold production and underpin its attractive valuation. · The Ada Tepe Mine (NAV: $327M) marked the beginning of a new chapter. DPM declared commercial production in July 2019 and has just completed ramp-up to 2500 tpd. Construction was completed under budget. It is a high grade (4.04 g/t Au) open pit gold mine. It is a harbinger for higher production and free cash flow growth. It is expected to produce ~100 Koz Au/yr over the first 5 years and ~85 Koz/yr at a low cash cost per ounce of $404 over LOM. · Tsumeb smelted 232 Mt (up from 219 Mt in 2017), at an improved cash cost to US$445/t, down from US$458 in 2017. · The Timok Gold Project is a pipeline project. In July, DPM completed a PEA showing robust economics, having an after-tax NPV5% of $105M, an IRR of 18.6%, a low cash cost and AISC of $618/oz and $717/oz, with average production of 75 Koz Au per year over LOM of 9 years. · Improved Production: FY18 revenue was $377M from the sale of 163.6 Koz of Au and 33.7 Mlbs of Cu. YoY production results were driven by higher gold and copper output from Chelopech. · Improved AISC: FY18 AISC, net by product, was $659/oz Au sold, down from $729 in the previous year. · Guidance (July 30, 2019): We expect DPM to sell 199 Koz in 2019 and produce 262 Koz in 2020. Guidance is between 180 Koz and 221 Koz for 2019 and no guidance has been given for 2020. DPM is guiding for 2019 AISC of between US$675 and US$820, payable copper between 32 and 37 Mlbs, and to process 210 to 230 Kt at the Tsumeb smelter. DPM is on pace to meet guidance. · DPM has improved performance throughout all its units. Valuation: We maintain our BUY rating and 12-month target price of C$7.50/share. Our valuation is based on a 1.0x NAV based on l a long term gold and copper price of $1,400/oz and $2.75/lbs. DPM is trading at 0.6x our NAV estimate. Its 2019E P/CFPS of 5.3x and 2020E P/CFPS of 3.0x reflect a discount to mean peers at 8.4x and 5.7x, respectively. T. 416.603.4343 F. 416.603.8608 E: research@mpartners.ca www.mpartners.ca 70 York Street Suite 1500 Toronto, ON Canada M5J 1S9
  24. DUNDEE CORPORATION (DC.A – TSX, $0.99) Rating: BUY Old Target Price: $2.10 New Target Price: $2.60 Q2 FINANCIAL RESULTS – LEANER AND POISED TO MINE PROFITS Dundee Corporation released Q2/19 financial results after market close yesterday. Net loss attributable to owners was $7.9M ($0.12/share) vs. a loss of $76.9M ($1.34/share) in Q2/18 and loss of $202.4M ($3.49/share) in full-year 2018. Consolidated revenues were $7.3M in the quarter vs. $13.3M in Q2/18, after the exit of non-core businesses and a focus on the investment portfolio. In the quarter, the value of the investment portfolio appreciated $11.3M to a total of $310.4M, largely driven by a $16.1M appreciation in the 20% position (36.4M shares) in Dundee Precious Metals. Since quarter-end, the value of this position has increased another $4.7M, while also having the high growth opportunities of its new mine in Bulgaria. The core of Dundee’s investments is Dundee Precious Metals, Parq Vancouver, Android Industries and United Hydrocarbon International Inc. Management continues to look at divesting non-core businesses in 2019. In Q2, Dundee generated $7.9M from the sale of non-core investments, including the Canadian franchise license for Sotheby’s for $5.0M. Since early 2018, the number of positions has been cut from 100+ to ~30 major investments. As part of the rationalization strategy, G&A expenses have decreased to $9.5M in Q2/19 vs. $18.5M in Q2/18. Management anticipates a $13-14M run rate on G&A by year-end. On May 10, Dundee announced that Parq Holdings LP had secured a refinancing on its substantial debt load, at a lower fixed rate and less restrictive covenants. This will reduce the total interest expense burden by ~300 bps and is a crucial step for cash flow and operational feasibility at Parq Vancouver. On May 15, $82.6M in Series 5 Preference Shares was converted into DC.A shares at a $2.00 floor price, requiring issuance of ~42M shares. Dundee paid $1.5M in dividends on these shares in Q1/19. We view the removal of these cash outflows and elimination of the uncertainty surrounding the original maturity date in June 2019 as a positive for Dundee. However, the resulting overhang has placed pressure on the share price. Management continues to evaluate a NCIB or SIB following conversations with the CRA. The focus has shifted to buying back Series 2 or Series 3 Preference shares rather than Class A shares. In conjunction with yesterday’s release, Dundee also announced the appointment of Steven Sharpe to its board of directors. Mr. Sharpe is Managing Director of EmBeSa Corporation. Our current core book value analysis indicates an increased target price of $2.60/share (from $2.10) with potential for additional upside if investment performance continues to improve and binary events are realized. VALUATION Based on the current values of its known public investments and the carrying value of other core balance sheet items, we calculate a core book value of $2.60/share. Moving forward, the company is focusing on its core competencies (primarily in the resource sector). Thus, performance in commodity prices and idiosyncratic events at larger holdings such as Dundee Precious Metals will have an outsized effect on Dundee Corp.’s book value. As the gold price environment has dramatically improved, Dundee is becoming increasingly attractive for its mining portfolio and the deep discount of DC.A shares vs. the value of its position in DPM alone. We believe that now that Dundee has sold off a substantial portion of its underperforming investments, periods of substantial losses will be much less drastic and frequent. Thus, it is becoming increasingly convincing to see the share price discount to tangible book value (0.2x) now that book value appears to be stabilizing. We emphasize that our core book value analysis ignores a number of potential growth drivers. For example, the value of Parq Vancouver is zero on Dundee’s balance sheet. Now that a refinancing has been obtained, it is much more likely now that Dundee will recover some of its investment value vs. a few months ago. Another large balance sheet item is Resource Assets, which is dependent on payouts and royalties on Delonex achieving first oil at United Hydrocarbon Chad’s assets (sold by UHIC in 2017). Because this is inherently unpredictable and a binary event, we are not including it in our valuation. If first oil were to be achieved in the next couple years, the resulting cash flows would likely be multiples higher than the current book value of Resource Assets, as it is calculated with probabilistic models. Dundee aims to continue exiting non-core positions, including Blue Goose, TauRx and its $13.7M subordinated loan to Eight Capital. After the sale of Blue Goose, almost all of Dundee’s debt balance would be eliminated (~$52M). Thus as a sale looks increasingly likely, we no longer consider that debt in our core book value analysis. Analyst: Andrew Hood 416.603.7381 x230 ah@mpartners.c
  25. Polar Capital continues to buy DC.A As at July 31, 2019, Polar, on behalf of client accounts over which it has discretionary trading authority, exercised control or direction over 12,623,208 Shares of the Issuer, representing approximately 12.63% of the issued and outstanding Shares. The requirement to file this report was triggered on July 22, 2019, when Polar, on behalf of client accounts over which it has discretionary trading authority, acquired 777,778 Shares of the Issuer.
×
×
  • Create New...