rogermunibond Posted March 31 Posted March 31 As per Bob Brackett from Bernstein, WTI+crack spread over $180 leads to recession.
Gamecock-YT Posted March 31 Posted March 31 14 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Hence the amendment. Principle: User toll charged to the world to pay for the defence and safe passage of shipping through choke points. (1) Tolls exist at private choke points, they have enabled more efficient transits, are routinely paid by shippers worldwide, and have been a common custom for decades (Suez, Panama, etc). This simply extends existing private practice into the public space, as best serves the purpose. (2) Global shipping routes has been exposed to piracy for centuries, with defence costs voluntarily born by the major navies of the world. This is simply modernisation; that transfers the defensive responsibility, and recovery of costs, to a different recovery mechanism. (3) Responsibility for enforcement of The Law of the Sea, becoming a collective shared user responsibility, alongside a mechanism to pay for it. Elegant. SD That opens up more problems than it solves. Suddenly, every strait in the world is going to have its hand in the till. Are we going to go back to trying to conquer Gibraltar like it is the 18th century while we are at it?
SharperDingaan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said: That opens up more problems than it solves. Suddenly, every strait in the world is going to have its hand in the till. Are we going to go back to trying to conquer Gibraltar like it is the 18th century while we are at it? It just recognises the world as it is, and modernises it. Everywhere there is a choke point, a UN toll to pay for the defence of safe passage; if there is no defence, no toll. User pays according to transit; protection payments to whoever is best suited in that region. State, warlord, etc ... all equal. States still free to assassinate, war against each other as they see fit. No different to every protection racket around the world; pay your 2%, build it into your cost, and we're all golden. Evolution ensuring that your protector is always whoever is at the top of the heap (the bad/obsolete dead). This century approach. SD Edited March 31 by SharperDingaan
Spekulatius Posted April 1 Posted April 1 If the US bail out the Gulf, most countries will make a deal with Iran to get safe passage, probably similar to the toll both agreement. It great for countries like Canada with energy supplies far way from these trolled areas. EUrope would be the idea, partner to do a joint development of infrastructure to move the Canadian juice to Europe.
Mephistopheles Posted April 1 Posted April 1 18 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: Guess we know Andurand's position Yea I saw that I feel the same way. I have October WTI for the same reason. Another day, another 10 mn barrels of supply lost.
rogermunibond Posted April 1 Posted April 1 @Mephistopheles seems like the trade is supply destruction > demand destruction regardless of Iran War ending or SoH opening today so long dated Brent is the way to play it.
sholland Posted April 1 Posted April 1 I expect that the Strait of Hormuz will be jammed up indefinitely. Talk of the strait being reopened in the timeframe of weeks seems fanciful to me. This could be the biggest energy crisis ever. I believe that the best way to play my variant perception is with a large block of cash and to wait for opportunities to arise as losing 10% of the world’s oil volumes shocks the foundation of the world economy. If I am wrong and peace breaks out soon then holding cash should be only a small lost opportunity cost.
rogermunibond Posted April 2 Posted April 2 GS Oil baseline forecast for Q2 is now 4.4 Mb/day short with SoH open and Gulf states paying toll, 8 Mb/day short if Gulf states reject transit toll
rogermunibond Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Everyone wants a pipeline now https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/60af63aa-e4e5-44ee-ac7f-572b49411f42
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) 1 minute ago, rogermunibond said: Everyone wants a pipeline now https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/60af63aa-e4e5-44ee-ac7f-572b49411f42 That's the one thing doomers aren't accounting for -- the world will quickly adapt when so much is at stake Everyone wants to sell their barrels at $110 a pop. The cure for high prices is high prices... Edited April 2 by Dalal.Holdings
rogermunibond Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Read the article please. Pipelines don't get built in 1-2 years.
Blake Hampton Posted April 2 Posted April 2 FT: ‘Utter sense of disappointment’ in Saudi Arabia over Trump’s strategy
rogermunibond Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) Physical Brent crude hitting $141.37 highest price since 2008 Edited April 2 by rogermunibond
LC Posted April 2 Posted April 2 https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2026/04/02/acclaimed-physicist-and-his-daughter-are-burying-tiny-nuclear-reactors-a-mile-underground/?ctpv=xlrecirc Drill a 30-inch-diameter borehole a mile into the earth, fill it with water, then insert a teeny-tiny nuclear reactor that will boil the water at the bottom and send it up a separate pipe to run a steam turbine. Each hole will generate 15 megawatts, enough to power 12,000 homes. Put 70 of them in a field and you can power a one-gigawatt artificial intelligence data center.
KPO Posted April 2 Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, LC said: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2026/04/02/acclaimed-physicist-and-his-daughter-are-burying-tiny-nuclear-reactors-a-mile-underground/?ctpv=xlrecirc Drill a 30-inch-diameter borehole a mile into the earth, fill it with water, then insert a teeny-tiny nuclear reactor that will boil the water at the bottom and send it up a separate pipe to run a steam turbine. Each hole will generate 15 megawatts, enough to power 12,000 homes. Put 70 of them in a field and you can power a one-gigawatt artificial intelligence data center. Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Spekulatius Posted April 3 Posted April 3 2 hours ago, KPO said: Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. It’s an interesting idea but you still need a segregate water circulation or the radioactivity will make its way up. I guess you have to make sure that the geological location is such that water from near the reactor can’t seep into ground water or river systems somehow. These reactor will remains buried forever - there is almost no way to decommission them otherwise.
Mephistopheles Posted April 3 Posted April 3 On 4/1/2026 at 11:13 AM, rogermunibond said: @Mephistopheles seems like the trade is supply destruction > demand destruction regardless of Iran War ending or SoH opening today so long dated Brent is the way to play it. Yea. 10mn barrels is pretty significant supply destruction. How bad will the demand side get? During Covid it was 20mn and that’s an extreme. 08 financial crisis was like 2mn. Are you able to buy Brent on IBKR? I can’t seem to find it, only WTI
NnnnotSoSmart Posted April 3 Posted April 3 I'll roll this live grenade into the room and exit stage right:
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 3 Posted April 3 On 4/2/2026 at 11:27 AM, rogermunibond said: Read the article please. Pipelines don't get built in 1-2 years. The Iraq-Turkey pipeline, Fujairah, and East-West pipeline are ~10M barrels a day combined. That's around half estimated pre-war export from the Gulf. Add in Iranian tankers that are getting through as well as ballsy ship operators who are risking it through the Strait along with other means of leakage of oil from the region, and also don't forget increasing Russia, Venezuelan, U.S. Shale, Guyana, etc production and eventually supply catches up. You can be sure that producers elsewhere in the world are looking to capitalize on >$100/barrel prices any way that they can
Spekulatius Posted April 3 Posted April 3 (edited) If US pulls through with this war, SOH will be open. If the US calls it a day, the powers in place will make a deal to open the DOH again. Iran will likely get some tolls in one way or another and they really need the money. The Gulf states main business is selling crude and energy to the rest of the world l so there is a strong incentive from pretty much every stakeholder to re-open the SOH. Personally, I think the faster Donnie quits, the quicker the SOH will re-open. Edited April 4 by Spekulatius
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 4 Posted April 4 7 hours ago, NnnnotSoSmart said: I'll roll this live grenade into the room and exit stage right: Well if high prices last a little while (say months), then everyone around the world boosts production. Then if the Strait gets resolved and all the Gulf supply hits the market, it will tank oil... Right now the only major scenario where oil squeezes much higher is if Iran goes all out against Gulf suppliers & infrastructure (such as East-West pipeline and others, production facilities, refiners, ports, etc)...one would hope that the U.S. posture in the region has made it so that Iran would not be capable of achieving that, but we'll see
Gregmal Posted April 4 Posted April 4 17 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Well if high prices last a little while (say months), then everyone around the world boosts production. Then if the Strait gets resolved and all the Gulf supply hits the market, it will tank oil... Inevitable imo. That’s exactly what’s going to happen
NnnnotSoSmart Posted April 4 Posted April 4 48 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Inevitable imo. That’s exactly what’s going to happen If so, our president will be very happy. "Mission accomplished."
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