Marco Van Basten Posted March 23 Posted March 23 24 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Iranian conditions for ending the war ... https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/senior-iranian-official-outlines-conditions-for-ending-war Tehran has outlined six key conditions as part of what the official described as a new legal and strategic framework: Guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war Closure of US military bases in the region Payment of compensation to the Islamic Republic An end to wars across all regional fronts Establishing a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz Prosecution and extradition of media figures deemed hostile to Iran Have to think the media figures are Netanyahu and Trump, prosecuted for war crimes; an eye (Khomeini) for an eye (Netanyahu/Trump), ultimately dropped for an end to wars across all regional fronts. Guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war, and a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, rolled into one under a coalition type umbrella. Orange Boy goes home, US military bases in the region are closed, a SOH transit fee compensates the Islamic Republic, and the Iranian nuclear program continues under a Chinese/Russian umbrella (adults in the room). Spin it as you like. Noteworthy is that Netanyahu/Trump are also a material problem within both Israel and the US, that all would like disposed of (bath tub, tall building, etc). Perhaps what cannot be done at home, can be done as a war crime prosecution at the Hague instead ???? Establish the process .... Putin and others to follow . Very shrewd, and right up there with the best. Interesting times. SD Dude what are you smoking? Are you high?
SharperDingaan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 17 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said: Dude what are you smoking? Are you high? Just looking at the world as it is ... not the way we would like it be. The world needs this to end, this is just the starting draft, and the end result will be better. It will not be what either the US/Israel or the Iranians want, it will be something that they can live with. Each side will rant, but unless they have something better ..... Wars occur because both parties couldn't get a political solution. Might may win for a time, but eventually you will be forced to give the land back .... as almost every former colonial power learns over time. SD Edited March 24 by SharperDingaan
John Hjorth Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 12 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said: Dude what are you smoking? Are you high? @Marco Van Basten, I,ve been reading similar mentioned in press here today, as SD [ @SharperDingaan ], mentioned above, but I coulden't for obvious reasons find something that looked like near a primary source, so I refrained from posting anything related to it. Enough crap and *BS* posted about the Iran thingy other places here on CofB&F. But I speculated it readed reasoable to be true. Edited March 24 by John Hjorth
Marco Van Basten Posted March 23 Posted March 23 49 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Just looking at the world as it is ... not the way we would like it be. The world needs this to end, this is just the starting draft, and the end result will be better. It will not be what either the US/Israel or the Iranians want, it will be something that they can live with. Each side will rant, but unless they have something better. Wars occur because both parties couldn't get a political solution. Might may win for a time, but eventually you will forced to give the land back .... as almost every former colonial power learns over time. SD Look, it is very unfortunate that millions of Iranians that abhor this regime are suffering. It is terrible that millions of people outside Iran are suffering. It is terrible that hundreds of thousands of Lebanese that have no affection for Hezbollah are suffering. I agree that it would be wonderful for the war to end, provided that Iran's march to nukes was stopped, ideally permanently. It would be nice to also have a government that cares at least somewhat for the population in Iran. I just think that the list of demands listed by Iran is laughable.
SharperDingaan Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) 15 hours ago, John Hjorth said: I been similar mentioned in press here today, as SD, mentioned above, but I could't for obvious reasons find something that looked like near a primary source, so I refrained from posting anything related to it. Almayadeen is the main Lebanese newspaper, no different to Qatar's Al Jazeera; it is simply the view from the Arab side of the street, vs western propaganda. We know there are talks going on; and it is highly likely this was an intentionally 'leaked' story with an agenda. It's a negotiation, demands are fluid, and a haggle; nobody has to agree with all of it, they just have to be able to reach an accommodation they can all live with. Trump and Netanyahu are old men, quite possibly dead/invalided within 10 years; defer war crime prosecution until both are dead. We've been given a glimpse. SD Edited March 24 by SharperDingaan
ratiman Posted March 24 Posted March 24 On 3/13/2026 at 11:20 AM, ratiman said: Let's say that the resolution of this conflict is that Iran imposes a $5/barrel SOH transit fee. Wouldn't that make US oil more competitive? This war might actually be good for US oil. Iran now levying a $1 par barrel fee or $2mm par VLCC which carries 2mm barrels. That's the teaser rate.
SharperDingaan Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) 4 hours ago, ratiman said: Iran now levying a $1 par barrel fee or $2mm par VLCC which carries 2mm barrels. That's the teaser rate. Nations can put up war ships, sailors, helicopters for a time ..... but the reality is that it's expensive, pushes up insurance rates, and it's a time limited engagement. Or nations can be intelligent; pay the levee, recover it through lower insurance costs, and apply those naval savings against higher energy costs. It isn't whether to pay or not, it's how much, and for how long Lot to be said for a high rate, and for 10-15 years; proceeds used to pay for damages throughout the gulf, not just Iran. The political solution. No different to paying for damages after a bar fight; you broke it, you pay for it. This is just how you go about doing that. SD Edited March 24 by SharperDingaan
ratiman Posted March 24 Posted March 24 It won't be popular advice but if the Houthis can control the Red Sea then Iran controls the SOH, there's no getting around that. There is no US public support for a land war in Asia. Just figure out a way to avoid it, either pipelines or trucks or railroads or just pay the fee. I saw a proposal to build another strait.
Xerxes Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) 1 hour ago, ratiman said: Iran now levying a $1 par barrel fee or $2mm par VLCC which carries 2mm barrels. That's the teaser rate. wait till they release the you-save-10%-annual “ayatollah subscription fee” for those who want the convenience of not having to pay each time and are ok to have their credit card information with IRGC Next year, they will bundle that with “waiver on attacks on your assets fee”. It is actually very Trumpian and transactional and in line with the new world order Edited March 24 by Xerxes
Hoodlum Posted March 24 Posted March 24 The impact from this conflict will last years. Qatar is the worlds 2nd largest natural gas producer and they just announced that 17% of their production has been impacted and will require 3-5 years to rebuild to bring back on line. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-attack-damage-wipes-out-17-qatars-lng-capacity-three-five-years-qatarenergy-2026-03-19/
ratiman Posted March 24 Posted March 24 18 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: The impact from this conflict will last years. Qatar is the worlds 2nd largest natural gas producer and they just announced that 17% of their production has been impacted and will require 3-5 years to rebuild to bring back on line. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-attack-damage-wipes-out-17-qatars-lng-capacity-three-five-years-qatarenergy-2026-03-19/ Iran turning the SOH into a tollbooth is one of the better possible outcomes. I'm trying to be positive. There are much worse scenarios.
rogermunibond Posted March 24 Posted March 24 23 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: The impact from this conflict will last years. Qatar is the worlds 2nd largest natural gas producer and they just announced that 17% of their production has been impacted and will require 3-5 years to rebuild to bring back on line. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-attack-damage-wipes-out-17-qatars-lng-capacity-three-five-years-qatarenergy-2026-03-19/ Buy Australian coal miners
SharperDingaan Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) Notable is that there isn't much difference between the two. Of course, it's a public trial balloon ... so they aren't going to agree with each other ; look at the commonalities/differences instead. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/25/us-iran-mediation-what-are-each-sides-demands-and-is-a-deal-possible No nukes. China/Russian supervision instead, no different to Israeli/American supervision ? End of war/proxy fighting (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi, Israel, Gulf States, etc.). Private settlements remain open ? No objection to SOH transits and reparations. Mechanism and duration to be negotiated ? War-crime exposures settled the old fashioned way, .... problems that all would prefer to 'go away'. SD Edited March 25 by SharperDingaan
thowed Posted March 25 Posted March 25 On 3/24/2026 at 2:10 PM, Xerxes said: wait till they release the you-save-10%-annual “ayatollah subscription fee” for those who want the convenience of not having to pay each time and are ok to have their credit card information with IRGC SaaS (Straits as a Service).
Castanza Posted March 25 Posted March 25 19 minutes ago, thowed said: SaaS (Straits as a Service). LOL, when you open a ticket with the help desk you either get an Iranian drone or a Patriot missile deployment
John Hjorth Posted March 25 Posted March 25 22 minutes ago, thowed said: SaaS (Straits as a Service). 2 minutes ago, Castanza said: LOL, when you open a ticket with the help desk you either get an Iranian drone or a Patriot missile deployment LoLz!
nsx5200 Posted March 25 Posted March 25 Short-term, pay the fee. Long-term, build your own pipeline and security to protect it. If Iran is smart, they would price their fee to match what it cost to maintain the pipeline, and periodically attack the pipeline to make the maintenance cost high. Pipeline owners would periodically allow these attacks to succeed so they can charge a premium for running material through their pipeline. Win for the pipeline/strait cartel without explicit collusion, which would invite the west to intervene. On another note. I'm surprised that the the solar industry is still down so much from the Trumpian policies. I would think at some point in time, reality kicks in and alternative energy generation like solar/wind must enter the picture to help fill in gaps.
ratiman Posted March 26 Posted March 26 So if boots do actually hit the ground in Iran, where does oil go? I have trouble seeing oil leave the gulf in that situation for a few weeks at least so I have to think it's over $150. I have trouble believing that will happen but every time troops move something happens so I don't want to say it's impossible.
Jaygo Posted March 27 Posted March 27 So a really interesting thing in the nat gas market is that some of the large Canadian players are starting to get global pricing on a small portion of their production. These numbers are not verified fyi but Tourmaline is going to see 6-7% of production at TTM price that is equivalent to 130 a barrel. They will have over 2 billion in sales on that alone for this year if the prices stay where they are. This to me is a precursor to the 2030's where more production is going to LNG raising the average selling price of their production as well as the possibility that the increased energy usage and LNG push the local prices ups as well. Arc has also entered agreements to see some Japan pricing on a small portion of their production as of this year.
rogermunibond Posted March 27 Posted March 27 (edited) I get a feeling that the inflation/supply shock from the SoH shutdown is going to be much bigger than many in the West are predicting. The US has largely not paid attention to what is going on with basic petrochemical feedstocks and chemical derivatives in Asia. True there was oversupply in chemical producers (Japan, SK producers getting pushed out by China), but the overall effect of polyester, PET, nylon, PVC costs jumping 200-400% will start to hit in the next six months. I'm still not sure, for example, what % of COGS is made up of petrochemicals for say a polyester/nylon sweater? The materials may just be 2-3% so that a 400% increase may end up with $3 of final product inflation. Also, looking for signs that diesel, gasoline, kerosene shortages are hitting Asia. Bangladesh, Philippines, Japan, SK, all have reports of shortages. Or agricultural co-ops, municipal fleets etc having fuel tenders for fleet fuel supply go unfilled due to shortage or high prices. http://archive.today/M8YWK https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/beer-cosmetics-asia-feels-full-force-war-fuelled-energy-crisis-2026-03-26/ The flip side of this is that perhaps the supply shock in petrochemicals puts a bid on the plastics recyclables business which has been clearly destroyed from low petrochemical prices. Anyone seeing increases or have insight into prices for recycled plastics? Edited March 27 by rogermunibond
Viking Posted March 27 Posted March 27 21 hours ago, ratiman said: So if boots do actually hit the ground in Iran, where does oil go? I have trouble seeing oil leave the gulf in that situation for a few weeks at least so I have to think it's over $150. I have trouble believing that will happen but every time troops move something happens so I don't want to say it's impossible. If boots don’t hit the ground where does oil go?
ratiman Posted March 27 Posted March 27 41 minutes ago, Viking said: If boots don’t hit the ground where does oil go? I have no idea. Oil at $65 never made any sense because the incremental dollar can't make money there. New production probably only kicks in at $80 so I would say $80 is the floor for WTI but again I have no idea but I hope Iran starts collecting tolls because that is the only peaceful way out and US consumers mostly won't pay the toll.
rogermunibond Posted March 27 Posted March 27 There's a Reuters article that says oil traders are looking at $150 end of April or $70-80 end of May/June, which kinda implies that it's all about SoH opening (binary outcome) and a straddle trade is the way to go.
SharperDingaan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 Over the shorter term; boots either hit the ground and everything spikes on the uncertainty, or there's an agreement and a price spike on the Iranian assassinations. No idea what prevails, or when; but the obvious approach is a long straddle. Over the nearer term; we have no idea as to the full extent of damage caused (existing, and to come). Best expectation is lower prices than today, and prices a lot higher than they were before the war started; pick your own range and timing. What we do know, is that with higher prices, the whole o/g sector becomes materially more profitable. How much to the upstream and downstream a mystery; largely dependant upon local geography, production and refining. How much of a windfall tax, and for how long ... dependent upon lobbying and bribes. O/G can either pay down debt, buyback shares/pay higher dividends, consolidate via M&A, or drill. The least tone-deaf is consolidation, drilling and processing to extract the efficiencies, and paying down post acquisition debt as rapidly as possible. Avoidance of excessive buybacks and dividend hikes, also avoiding windfall tax. O/G flush, while other sectors experience liquidity loss. Sector rotation into O/G dropping index levels further as other sectors sell down. Range of opportunities . Volatility management is part of investment. SD
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