wondering Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 I don't think anyone has posted this yet (pardon me if it has been posted) - 17 minute interview Prem gave with his views on the Greek economy, Greek investments - Sorry I am a big Prem-supporter, but the sound, and medium in which this was done was horrible, horrible. BuX t you concentrate on the content of the discussion, there are a few important take aways - a significant portion of the Greek debt is at 30 years at 1.5%, S&P says the debt profile of Greece is among the best in Europe - Greece will do will do well irrespectively of what happens in US and Europe - Greek banks are very well capitalized. 1.5 - 2.0x capital ratios of US banks, but selling at only 5-6X earnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/investments/924955.html The international insurance group Fairfax Financial Holdings (Canada) has increased its stake in the Ukrainian agricultural holding Ovostar (Ovostar Union) to 17.499% from 10.39%, the company announced on the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 (edited) Mytilineos shares have been on a tear in 2023. Here is an short update of what it means for Fairfax. Who is Mytilineos? Ticker: MYTIL.AT (trades on the Athens stock exchange) Stock price: $36.68 (July 26, 2023) Market cap: €5.07 billion Dividend = €1.24 = 3.4% From the company’s web site: “MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals is a global industrial and energy company covering two business Sectors: Energy and Metallurgy. The Company is strategically positioned at the forefront of the energy transition as an integrated utility, while already established as a reference point for competitive green metallurgy at the European and global level. It has a consolidated turnover and EBITDA of €6.35 billion and €823 million, respectively, and employs more than 5,442 direct and indirect employees in Greece and abroad.” Corporate presentation Jun 2023: https://www.mytilineos.com/media/k5lj10q0/corporate_presentation_june_2023.pdf How much of Mytilineos does Fairfax own? Fairfax owns 9.19 million shares (including the exchangeable bonds) with a value of $372 million. This makes the company a top 15 holding in Fairfax’s equity portfolio. Fairfax made its first investment in Mytilineos in 2012 or 2013 (€30 million stake). In November of 2022, Fairfax owned 3.99 million shares. In December 2022, Fairfax more than doubled their stake: they purchased 2.7 million shares at €18.50. they purchased exchangeable bonds that gives them the right to buy another 2.5 million shares at €20. Fairfax is now the second largest shareholder. How has the investment performed since Fairfax added to their position in December, 2022? Fairfax’s position is up $171 million or 85% over the past 8 months. ————— October 21, 2013: Canada's Fairfax buys Mytilineos stake in second bet on Greece https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-fairfax/canadas-fairfax-buys-mytilineos-stake-in-second-bet-on-greece-idUSBRE99K05H20131021 December 13, 2022: Fairfax becomes the 2nd largest shareholder in MYTILINEOS https://www.mytilineos.com/news/company-news/fairfax-becomes-the-2nd-largest-shareholder-in-mytilineos ---------- Estimated cost to Fairfax of total position (very rough) My estimate below of €14.14 is likely high. It does not include dividends, which Mytilineos has paid since 2018. And my estimate of €7.52 for the initial 3.99 million shares is a guess. Given the large size of the position, Fairfax will likely give us the correct number in a future annual report. Edited July 26, 2023 by Viking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glider3834 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 15 hours ago, Viking said: Mytilineos shares have been on a tear in 2023. Here is an short update of what it means for Fairfax. Who is Mytilineos? Ticker: MYTIL.AT (trades on the Athens stock exchange) Stock price: $36.68 (July 26, 2023) Market cap: €5.07 billion Dividend = €1.24 = 3.4% From the company’s web site: “MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals is a global industrial and energy company covering two business Sectors: Energy and Metallurgy. The Company is strategically positioned at the forefront of the energy transition as an integrated utility, while already established as a reference point for competitive green metallurgy at the European and global level. It has a consolidated turnover and EBITDA of €6.35 billion and €823 million, respectively, and employs more than 5,442 direct and indirect employees in Greece and abroad.” Corporate presentation Jun 2023: https://www.mytilineos.com/media/k5lj10q0/corporate_presentation_june_2023.pdf How much of Mytilineos does Fairfax own? Fairfax owns 9.19 million shares (including the exchangeable bonds) with a value of $372 million. This makes the company a top 15 holding in Fairfax’s equity portfolio. Fairfax made its first investment in Mytilineos in 2012 or 2013 (€30 million stake). In November of 2022, Fairfax owned 3.99 million shares. In December 2022, Fairfax more than doubled their stake: they purchased 2.7 million shares at €18.50. they purchased exchangeable bonds that gives them the right to buy another 2.5 million shares at €20. Fairfax is now the second largest shareholder. How has the investment performed since Fairfax added to their position in December, 2022? Fairfax’s position is up $171 million or 85% over the past 8 months. ————— October 21, 2013: Canada's Fairfax buys Mytilineos stake in second bet on Greece https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-fairfax/canadas-fairfax-buys-mytilineos-stake-in-second-bet-on-greece-idUSBRE99K05H20131021 December 13, 2022: Fairfax becomes the 2nd largest shareholder in MYTILINEOS https://www.mytilineos.com/news/company-news/fairfax-becomes-the-2nd-largest-shareholder-in-mytilineos ---------- Estimated cost to Fairfax of total position (very rough) My estimate below of €14.14 is likely high. It does not include dividends, which Mytilineos has paid since 2018. And my estimate of €7.52 for the initial 3.99 million shares is a guess. Given the large size of the position, Fairfax will likely give us the correct number in a future annual report. 1H results out today 'Mytilineos recorded its historically best H1 year performance led by the energy sector, achieving another large increase in net profitability and consolidating high performance. In particular, turnover increased to €2,516 million compared to €2,154 million in the first half of 2022, marking an increase of 17% despite the significant de-escalation of energy and metal prices. Earnings before Taxes, Interest and Depreciation (EBITDA) also recorded a significant increase, by 49%, to €438 million compared to €293 million in the corresponding period of the previous year, benefiting from the steady increase in the profitability of the Energy Sector and in particular the activity of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), which contributed the largest percentage (29%) to the Sector's EBITDA, as well as the supply of electricity and natural gas, as a result of the continuous internationalization of the company's activities. Mytilineos achieved its historically best performance in the first half of the year led by the Energy Sector. In particular, in addition to the significant contribution of M Renewables (RES of Greece and abroad), which saw its profitability more than double (+117%) compared to the first half of 2022, the Energy sector was also favored by the substantial strengthening of the presence of Mytilineos in the supply of natural gas in the wider region of the Balkans and SE Europe. ' https://www.capital.gr/epixeiriseis/3729301/mytilineos-alma-61-stin-kathari-kerdoforia-to-a-examino/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 (edited) Some positive news for Foran Mining “Base metals explorer and developer Foran Mining has received Ministerial approval for its McIlvenna Bay project, in Saskatchewan, concluding the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process for the copper/zinc/gold/silver project.” https://m.miningweekly.com/article/foran-wraps-up-eia-for-planned-saskatchewan-copper-mine-2023-07-27 Fairfax position size is ~$200m (23%) From Foran’s website “With Probable Mineral Reserves of 25.7 Mt at 2.51% CuEq containing 697 million pounds of copper and 1.4 billion pounds of zinc included in a Mineral Resource of 39 million Indicated tonnes grading 2.04% CuEq for 1.0 billion pounds of copper and 1.9 billion pounds of zinc and 5 million Inferred tonnes grading 1.8% CuEq for 104 million pounds of copper and 282 million pounds of zinc.” “The McIlvenna Bay Project is levered to commodity prices. At spot prices as at April 4, 2022 (copper US$4.81/lb), the initial phase project delivers a pre-tax NPV7% of C$1.1 billion and IRR of 54% (C$1.3B and 44% after-tax). The Deposit remains open and regional exploration continues to demonstrate the exciting potential to increase throughput and mine life. Copper price currently $3.87/lb Edit: We should have some updates shortly on the summer drilling program. There is a very good chance that the drilling at TESLA will continue to shore up reserves. The joys of exploration, blue sky baby https://foranmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/News-Release-Foran-Announces-New-Copper-Gold-Rich-Lens-Discovery-at-Tesla.pdf Edited July 28, 2023 by nwoodman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 12 hours ago, glider3834 said: 1H results out today Tidy set of results. Like FFH, still looks cheap even after the run up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 The Canadian Press Mon, July 31, 2023 at 3:34 p.m. ADT BlackBerry software to be used by international electric vehicle consortium BlackBerry Ltd. says some of its software and services have been chosen for use in a Foxconn-backed electric vehicle consortium. The Waterloo, Ont.-based software company says the Mobility in Harmony consortium will use its QNX and Ivy offerings to build the platform. QNX is a cloud- and artificial intelligence-based software foundation while Ivy is an in-vehicle software platform helping automakers monetize data. Software giant Microsoft, South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution and luxury electric vehicle manufacturer Karma Automotive are among the thousands of consortium members. The consortium is working on building a single-row, three-seat vehicle geared toward Asian consumers that it calls Project X. The vehicle is due to launch in Japan later this year, and will be followed by six-seat and nine-seat vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 On 7/27/2023 at 7:07 PM, nwoodman said: Tidy set of results. Like FFH, still looks cheap even after the run up Applies to Eurobank as well following H1 earnings out earlier today. Should be true for FFH after earnings on Thursday night too! https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2023/2q-2023/2q2023-results-pr-en.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 58 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Applies to Eurobank as well following H1 earnings out earlier today. Should be true for FFH after earnings on Thursday night too! https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2023/2q-2023/2q2023-results-pr-en.pdf Guidance for RoTBV at >15%. Almost seems ludricous that they would trade at <TBV. Morgan Stanley’s take attached. I just hope they hurry up with the buybacks and are able to pick up the HFSF stake around these prices. Like buying dollars for 70 cents. https://www.reuters.com/article/eurobank-holdings-stakesale-idUKL8N3962ML EUROBANK_20230731_0000.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 1 hour ago, nwoodman said: Guidance for RoTBV at >15%. Almost seems ludricous that they would trade at <TBV. Morgan Stanley’s take attached. I just hope they hurry up with the buybacks and are able to pick up the HFSF stake around these prices. Like buying dollars for 70 cents. https://www.reuters.com/article/eurobank-holdings-stakesale-idUKL8N3962ML EUROBANK_20230731_0000.pdf 225.88 kB · 7 downloads @nwoodman thanks for posting the article. Eurobank’s guidance for EPS was increased from €0.22/share to €0.28/share. Shares closed today at €1.59/share. I am wondering if the earnings of Fairfax’s various associate and consolidated equity holdings will exceed expectations when they report on Thursday. Eurobank is the biggest, so we are already off to a great start. Recipe? Thomas Cook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 Decent beat by Kennedy Wilson (KW) Q2 EPS of $0.28/share https://ir.kennedywilson.com/~/media/Files/K/Kennedy-Wilson-IR-V2/documents/kw-2023-06-30-8k-ex-99-1-10-q-supplemental-release.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick92 Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 I guess the beat from KW was kind of inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) The movie 'Groundhog Day' keeps playing out for Fairfax shareholders and the Total Return Swaps. Another month has gone by and Fairfax is once again sitting on another big unrealized gain for this position. Five weeks into Q3 the position is up another $184 million, or $8/share. The cumulative gain on this one investment is now about $921 million, or $40/share (pre-tax) in 32 months. Well, Bill Murray does get the girl in the end. Fairfax shareholders are making out pretty good themselves. ---------- Let's try and conceptualize what this size of a gain means for an insurer like Fairfax. Fairfax has earned an average of $345 million per year on this investment since inception. Most insurers invest primarily in fixed income instruments. What size of a fixed income portfolio would Fairfax need to earn $345 million per year in interest income? With a yield of 4.5%, Fairfax would need a fixed income portfolio of $7.7 billion to generate $345 million in interest income. So the TRS position the past 32 months has generated a return equivalent to a $7.7 billion fixed income portfolio. That is insurance speak for 'holy shit!' For perspective, WR Berkley had a total investment portfolio of $22.9 billion at Dec 31, 2022; Markel was $27.4 billion. So $7.7 billion is a big deal. The TRS position is definitely punching above its weight for Fairfax right now. And the success of the TRS position demonstrated the power of Fairfax's business model when it comes to investing versus a traditional insurer. At least when it's working, like The TRS position has been for the past 32 months. Tax treatment: does anyone have any insight on the tax treatment of interest income and gains from a TRS? What is the TRS-FFH investment? In late 2020 and early 2021, Fairfax purchased total return swaps giving it exposure to 1.96 million Fairfax shares with an average notional amount (cost) of US$373/share. At the time, Fairfax had about 26.2 million effective shares outstanding, so this investment represented 7.5% of the company’s shares. Effective shares outstanding at the end of Q2, 2023 dropped to 23.2 million so this investment now represents 8.4% of the company’s shares. Edited August 5, 2023 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/4/2023 at 11:42 PM, Viking said: Tax treatment: does anyone have any insight on the tax treatment of interest income and gains from a TRS? It's all taxable as income in the quarter it is earned if I'm not mistaken. Been a minute since I've been involved with TRS, and wasn't involved in the taxes, but I think it's considered income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 (edited) Anyone watching Thomas Cook. I know the Indian markets are on fire but THOMASCOOK.BO is up around 8% today and 35% since June 30 when it was around a $300M position. Even after this run it is around 60% off it's 2018 highs. Another position to add to the regression to the mean list. Edited August 9, 2023 by nwoodman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted August 9, 2023 Author Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 hour ago, nwoodman said: Anyone watching Thomas Cook. I know the Indian markets are on fire but THOMASCOOK.BO is up around 8% today and 35% since June 30 when it was around a $300M position. Even after this run it is around 60% off it's 2018 highs. Another position to add to the regression to the mean list. I've often wondered what the plan is with this. An exit? Dividends? Fold it into FIH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, petec said: I've often wondered what the plan is with this. An exit? Dividends? Fold it into FIH? It is a bit of an island, I agree. On a more nostalgic note, it was only a few years ago that we were all talking about coiled springs. It kind of feels like the entire mattress is exploding. I just had to get that crap analogy out of my system; apologies for making you the recipient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 (edited) @nwoodman , your post on Thomas Cook motivated me to do an update. As of Aug 9, Fairfax's equity holdings (that I track) are up about $522 million ($22.51/share) so far in Q3. Great start to the quarter. Split by accounting treatment can be seen below. I have attached my Excel file if you want a closer look. Top 5 Movers? All up this quarter: FFH TRS = $169 million Eurobank = $108 million Thomas Cook India = $102 million John Keells = $51 Mytilineos = $33 Fairfax Aug 9 2023.xlsx Edited August 9, 2023 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 6 hours ago, Viking said: @nwoodman , your post on Thomas Cook motivated me to do an update. As of Aug 9, Fairfax's equity holdings (that I track) are up about $522 million ($22.51/share) so far in Q3. Great start to the quarter. Split by accounting treatment can be seen below. I have attached my Excel file if you want a closer look. Top 5 Movers? All up this quarter: FFH TRS = $169 million Eurobank = $108 million Thomas Cook India = $102 million John Keells = $51 Mytilineos = $33 Fairfax Aug 9 2023.xlsx 157.02 kB · 11 downloads Thanks doesn't quite do it justice, but thanks anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted August 11, 2023 Author Share Posted August 11, 2023 On 8/9/2023 at 12:36 PM, nwoodman said: It is a bit of an island, I agree. On a more nostalgic note, it was only a few years ago that we were all talking about coiled springs. It kind of feels like the entire mattress is exploding. I just had to get that crap analogy out of my system; apologies for making you the recipient. Ha ha - it's very apt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 (edited) That’s a big weighting to OXY. Don’t disapprove, as I was kind of kicking myself I didn’t buy some in the mid 50’s. However, I do prefer these type of positions in my long term compounders. The index position is a head scratcher at these levels though. It’s funny, a lot of people have bagged Gaynor at MKL for his myriad of holdings and argued why not just have an ETF position. FFH seem to think so. All appears more rump, less tail albeit with a slight inflationary bias and in the case of OXY leveraging the implied BRK put. Edited August 14, 2023 by nwoodman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 7 hours ago, nwoodman said: That’s a big weighting to OXY. Don’t disapprove, as I was kind of kicking myself I didn’t buy some in the mid 50’s. However, I do prefer these type of positions in my long term compounders. The index position is a head scratcher at these levels though. It’s funny, a lot of people have bagged Gaynor at MKL for his myriad of holdings and argued why not just have an ETF position. FFH seem to think so. All appears more rump, less tail albeit with a slight inflationary bias and in the case of OXY leveraging the implied BRK put. That SP 500 is indeed a headscratcher lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dartmonkey Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 22 minutes ago, Luca said: That SP 500 is indeed a headscratcher lol! Agreed about the S&P, but it's small ($30m), I wonder if they acquired it somehow and haven't gotten rid of it yet. Seems contrary to everything they usually say and do. As for Occidental, at $354m it may be #1 in the 13-F, but it's really small potatoes compared to the huge bond portfolio, the big private companies they own, notably Eurobank and Atlas/Poseidon (each about $2b). Even Thomas Cook is bigger (about $400m), and Mytilineos is about the same size as the Occidental bet. And of course, the dreaded Blackberry is even smaller, fading into obscurity (thankfully!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StubbleJumper Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Luca said: That SP 500 is indeed a headscratcher lol! I don't really mind them putting a few bucks into the S&P index, but the more worrisome possibility is that this investment might have been paired against a short (ie, go long S&P while simultaneously shorting some stock that you hate). SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dartmonkey Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said: I don't really mind them putting a few bucks into the S&P index, but the more worrisome possibility is that this investment might have been paired against a short (ie, go long S&P while simultaneously shorting some stock that you hate). SJ That would indeed be worrisome, given Watsa's pretty unambiguous promise in the 2018 report: In the past, to protect our equity exposures in uncertain times, we shorted indices (mainly the S&P500 and Russell 2000) and a few common stocks. After much thought and discussion, it became clear to me that shorting is dangerous, very short term in nature and anathema to long term value investing. As I mentioned to you in last year’s annual report, shorting has cost us, cumulatively, net of our gains on common stock, approximately $2 billion! This will not be repeated! In the future, we may use options with a potential finite loss to hedge our equity exposure, but we will never again indulge anew in shorting with uncapped exposure. Your Chairman continues to learn–slowly!! repeated in 2021: I said in our 2019 [sic; but I think he meant 2018] annual report that we would not short stock market indices (like the S&P500) or common stocks of individual companies ever again, and our last remaining short position was closed out in 2020 (not soon enough, as it cost us $529 million in 2020). If he renegs on this promise, I think people would be furious. Even though I think shorting the market would probably work out well at current prices, with the company doing so well since the end of the shorts, I dare to hope that he has ruled out shorting too clearly for him to just go back to doing it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now