Fairfax stock positions

[Xerxes]

It is a joke folks.
Get over it. 
 

*Sigh* should have known FFH People’ Militia would roaming the threads here clubs in hands. 

 

That said I do think both Micron and Overstock worth looking at (both mooned after sale), given that they say something about their process. 
 

Don’t get excited. I didn’t say let critique their process. just that it says something. 

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

It is a joke folks.
Get over it. 
 

*Sigh* should have known FFH People’ Militia would roaming the threads here clubs in hands. 

 

That said I do think both Micron and Overstock worth looking at (both mooned after sale), given that they say something about their process. 
 

Don’t get excited. I didn’t say let critique their process. just that it says something. 

Xerxes my post was meant, or would have sounded in speech, to be of pretty low intensity.

[Xerxes]

34 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Xerxes my post was meant, or would have sounded in speech, to be of pretty low intensity.

 

understood. thank you.
 

I just had my double espresso. My bad 

[mananainvesting]

I did a writeup on $GFR - Greenfire Resources, one of Fairfax's stock position. It is free to read, link to the writeup: https://mananainvesting.substack.com/p/1-greenfire-resources-ltd-tsx-gfrto

Let me know your thoughts/feedback. Thanks.

Disclosure: I am long $GFR, this is not investment or financial advice. 

[hardcorevalue]

or Buffett on ASML

[gfp]

31 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

or Buffett on ASML

 

 

???  what?

[Parsad]

9 hours ago, Xerxes said:

It is a joke folks.
Get over it. 
 

*Sigh* should have known FFH People’ Militia would roaming the threads here clubs in hands. 

 

That said I do think both Micron and Overstock worth looking at (both mooned after sale), given that they say something about their process. 
 

Don’t get excited. I didn’t say let critique their process. just that it says something. 

 

The only clubs we carry are used on the golf course and bought from Sporting Life!    Although we will throw fried chicken at you from St. Hubert's!  Cheers!

[hardcorevalue]

7 hours ago, gfp said:

 

 

???  what?

sorry TSMC !

[Duke In Shadows]

23 hours ago, mananainvesting said:

I did a writeup on $GFR - Greenfire Resources, one of Fairfax's stock position. It is free to read, link to the writeup: https://mananainvesting.substack.com/p/1-greenfire-resources-ltd-tsx-gfrto

Let me know your thoughts/feedback. Thanks.

Disclosure: I am long $GFR, this is not investment or financial advice. 

[Xerxes]

On 5/27/2026 at 5:26 PM, Parsad said:

 

The only clubs we carry are used on the golf course and bought from Sporting Life!    Although we will throw fried chicken at you from St. Hubert's!  Cheers!

haha

if you are throwing FFH related stuff. At least make it a Keg Giftcard.  

[Viking]

How have Fairfax's equity holdings performed so far in Q2? Collectively, they are up ~$1 billion, or $45 per Fairfax share, pre-tax. Solid performance in aggregate.

 

Two stories stand out to me:

 

1. Eurobank is the big mover, up ~840m.

 

Excess of FV over CV for non-insurance associate and market-traded consolidated holdings was $3.9B at March 31. The sale of ~50% of Poseidon will reduce this by about $840M. The increase in Eurobank in Q2 is tracking to offset the Poseidon sale - meaning excess of FV over CV could finish Q2 around $3.9B. 

 

Over time, hidden value being created > hidden value being monetized.  

 

2. Fairfax's weak share price is hitting the FFH-TRS position hard. After a steep decline in Q1, it is down another ~$255M so far in Q2. Importantly, this decline is being offset by gains in a broad range on other holdings - as a result, mark to market holdings are up modestly.

 

With a value of $2.7B, FFH-TRS is - by far - Fairfax's second largest equity investment. Fairfax's stock is trading at $1,560 -  dirt cheap. This means FFH-TRS position is dirt cheap - and this is how it is now being reflected/valued in Fairfax's book value. 

 

FFH-TRS is a coiled spring. It now provides significant upside potential for Fairfax moving forward. 

 

Edited May 30 by Viking

[Maverick47]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

How have Fairfax's equity holdings performed so far in Q2? Collectively, they are up ~$1 billion, or $45 per Fairfax share, pre-tax. Solid performance in aggregate.

 

Two stories stand out to me:

 

1. Eurobank is the big mover, up ~840m.

 

Excess of FV over CV for non-insurance associate and market-traded consolidated holdings was $3.9B at March 31. The sale of ~50% of Poseidon will reduce this by about $840M. The increase in Eurobank in Q2 is tracking to offset the Poseidon sale - meaning excess of FV over CV could finish Q2 around $3.9B. 

 

Over time, hidden value being created > hidden value being monetized.  

 

2. Fairfax's weak share price is hitting the FFH-TRS position hard. After a steep decline in Q1, it is down another ~$255M so far in Q2. Importantly, this decline is being offset by gains in a broad range on other holdings - as a result, mark to market holdings are up modestly.

 

With a value of $2.7B, FFH-TRS is - by far - Fairfax's second largest equity investment. Fairfax's stock is trading at $1,560 -  dirt cheap. This means FFH-TRS position is dirt cheap - and this is how it is now being reflected/valued in Fairfax's book value. 

 

FFH-TRS is a coiled spring. It now provides significant upside potential for Fairfax moving forward. 

 

Thanks for the update, @Viking!
 

It will be interesting to see how the company allocates the capital freed up from the Poseidon sale.    Buying back some of their own stock at what seems to be quite an attractive price level would be one good use, as would be buying in some of the minority interests in Allied World.  Either option would seem to be opposite sides of the same coin.  Or, like Forrest Gump might say, “maybe it’s both…maybe both things are happening at the same time.”
 

Watching Fairfax these days makes me feel like a summer spectator of a value investing game being played by virtuosos. 

[Viking]

20 minutes ago, Maverick47 said:

Thanks for the update, @Viking!
 

It will be interesting to see how the company allocates the capital freed up from the Poseidon sale.    Buying back some of their own stock at what seems to be quite an attractive price level would be one good use, as would be buying in some of the minority interests in Allied World.  Either option would seem to be opposite sides of the same coin.  Or, like Forrest Gump might say, “maybe it’s both…maybe both things are happening at the same time.”
 

Watching Fairfax these days makes me feel like a summer spectator of a value investing game being played by virtuosos. 

 

A key question is what is included in book value?

 

A couple of things are happening under the hood in 2026 that are important;

• Interest rates are moving higher
• Fairfax's stock price is selling off

Both are a headwind to book value:

• Higher interest rates cause the value of Fairfax's fixed income portfolio to fall (yes, there is a partial offset from IFRS accounting on the insurance liabilities)
• A lower share price causes the value of the FFH-TRS position to fall

The result is Fairfax's BVPS  is getting more conservative (compared to Dec 31, 2025) - providing a larger margin of safety. 

 

@Maverick47, I agree with you. My guess is Fairfax is going to be very aggressive with buying back stock in 2026. Just not sure on the exact timing (they have lots of things to balance in the short term). Patience will be important (not one of my strongest attributes). 

 

The crazy thing is it would not surprise me to see Fairfax's stock go lower from here. Like if we get a big sell off in the stock market. I expect Fairfax to respond accordingly (and be even more aggressive with buybacks).  

Edited May 30 by Viking

[Txvestor]

9 hours ago, Maverick47 said:

Thanks for the update, @Viking!
 

It will be interesting to see how the company allocates the capital freed up from the Poseidon sale.    Buying back some of their own stock at what seems to be quite an attractive price level would be one good use, as would be buying in some of the minority interests in Allied World.  Either option would seem to be opposite sides of the same coin.  Or, like Forrest Gump might say, “maybe it’s both…maybe both things are happening at the same time.”
 

Watching Fairfax these days makes me feel like a summer spectator of a value investing game being played by virtuosos. 

They also need to have $ ready for KW buyout. 

[Maverick47]

29 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

They also need to have $ ready for KW buyout. 

You’re right.  I was also wondering how the potential purchase of the Indian Bank would get financed.  It’s not a bad problem to have, having a lot of potential investments lined up for the future.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Txvestor said:

They also need to have $ ready for KW buyout. 

KW buyout probably happens at the insurance subsidiaries level. About $400m of Poseidon was held at the holdco so that money is presumably available for buybacks if they decided to sell that piece.

[adventurer]

I am not too sure about the future of buybacks. Normally they should intensify the buyback with a continuously lower stock price. But during the last soft market they also went on a shopping spree buying other insurers. 
 

What stops them from doing that i/o continuing to buy back shares? What is different between then and now?

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, adventurer said:

I am not too sure about the future of buybacks. Normally they should intensify the buyback with a continuously lower stock price. But during the last soft market they also went on a shopping spree buying other insurers. 
 

What stops them from doing that i/o continuing to buy back shares? What is different between then and now?

They have stated that they don’t need to do any large insurance acquisitions. They can’t use their stock for insurance acquisitions like they did when they bought Allied because they trade much cheaper than peers. Whatever they do, I’m sure it will make sense at the time. 

[nwoodman]

4 hours ago, adventurer said:

I am not too sure about the future of buybacks. Normally they should intensify the buyback with a continuously lower stock price. But during the last soft market they also went on a shopping spree buying other insurers. 
 

What stops them from doing that i/o continuing to buy back shares? What is different between then and now?

Is there a cheaper, higher quality float per share option than FFH itself? I think at the current share price they achieve both options you are considering.

[Crip1]

5 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Is there a cheaper, higher quality float per share option than FFH itself? I think at the current share price they achieve both options you are considering.

I would have to think that they've done plenty of analysis on share buybacks vs. Allied World buyout vs. any possible insurance companies that may be available for purchase at an attractive price vs. other opportunities about which we have no knowledge. They know first two options (buybacks and Allied World) better than anyone. If something comes up that looks better to them than the first two, then that would be really interesting.

 

-Crip

[hardcorevalue]

Everybody is bearish on FFH short term, even the bulls! we might be getting close to an epic run! 

[dartmonkey]

BB continues breaking out - closing today at $9.72, up from $3.79 at the end of 2025 and a triple from its $3.24 price at the end of Q1, or a $227m gain for Q2 so far. Still a long way from breaking even based on Watsa's description of a cost basis of $17.16 (although they made around $200m interest on the convertibles), but at least it will improve Q2 results if the current price holds up.

 

[Hoodlum]

7 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

BB continues breaking out - closing today at $9.72, up from $3.79 at the end of 2025 and a triple from its $3.24 price at the end of Q1, or a $227m gain for Q2 so far. Still a long way from breaking even based on Watsa's description of a cost basis of $17.16 (although they made around $200m interest on the convertibles), but at least it will improve Q2 results if the current price holds up.

 

I would be surprised if Fairfax has not been selling BB as the stock price increased in Q2. 

[Txvestor]

24 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I would be surprised if Fairfax has not been selling BB as the stock price increased in Q2. 

I agree. But wouldn't it be something if we exit after a decade plus and it goes to $100 in this hot air market. I know when it went to $30 in the Covid meme stock craze they couldn't exit due to their position size but there's no such constraint this time around. I also know it's damn near impossible to time it when it's moving based on hype. I had a small BB position that I exited at 17 to see it go all the way to 30 then back down. 

[yesman182]

21 hours ago, hardcorevalue said:

Everybody is bearish on FFH short term, even the bulls! we might be getting close to an epic run! 

FFH was down 2% today and even this board is quite! Sure has been an interesting year. I was a buyer at 1520 today.