gfp Posted May 15 Posted May 15 24 minutes ago, Junior R said: 13f out https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FFH No real surprises there. WEN buy was in the NAIC filing I posted. As I figured, they completely exited OXY
petec Posted May 15 Author Posted May 15 A minor negative on the Kennedy Wilson transaction - KW has sold $1.8bn of bonds in the low 7% range to repay bonds in the high 4% range. I can't imagine why they would do this unless there are change of control provisions in the existing bonds. Anyway, interest costs go up on what is already a very levered business. Kennedy Wilson Announces Pricing of $1.8 Billion Senior Notes Offering | Kennedy Wilson
NnnnotSoSmart Posted May 15 Posted May 15 (edited) 9 hours ago, Viking said: @NnnnotSoSmart, the interesting part of the merger to me is the size aspect (and understanding why big is better in mining). I think it is a similar logic with Foran’s purchase by Eldorado. I have a friend, smarter than me, mining engineer 35 years in the business, rose to be CEO of Royal Gold and is still on the board of a mining company. I asked him what he thought of the merger. Similar thoughts to yours. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "I know the main assets of the combined company, some of which companies I worked for owned in the past. I know Ross Beaty and Chuck Jeannes well. Both are quality names in the business. Chuck and I worked together in San Francisco in the mid 1990s or Placer Dome and he went on to be CEO of Goldcorp, one of the largest gold companies of that time (now part of Newmont). Ross took a different route…he is known as one of the most successful gold mining entrepreneurs and started putting companies together many years ago. He is likely approaching a self-made billionaire but more importantly, a good guy. Greenstone, Camino Rojo and Musselwhite I know pretty well. I know of Los Filos but don’t know the details of the operation. I am surprised it is as big as noted in the presentation. This merger makes a lot of sense – economies of scale, cost optimization, people optimization and talent retention, Vancouver mafia based, balance sheet, geographic areas, growth potential. They will likely stay with NA assets. Building a company one asset at a time is common (which is what Chuck and Ross did separately here) but I suspect they will continue to buy. It is in their nature. The prize they are chasing is the larger company multiple. The best multiples are the royalty companies at 2x NAV or 20xCF. No operating company can match that but size matters when trying to close that gap." Edited May 15 by NnnnotSoSmart
Crip1 Posted May 15 Posted May 15 7 minutes ago, petec said: A minor negative on the Kennedy Wilson transaction - KW has sold $1.8bn of bonds in the low 7% range to repay bonds in the high 4% range. I can't imagine why they would do this unless there are change of control provisions in the existing bonds. Anyway, interest costs go up on what is already a very levered business. Kennedy Wilson Announces Pricing of $1.8 Billion Senior Notes Offering | Kennedy Wilson I understand pushing out maturity dates, but that interest rate differential is substantial, and bewildering. This is outside of my circle of confidence so I would appreciate thoughts of anyone who has more knowledge. -Crip
gfp Posted May 15 Posted May 15 Yeah they must have been required to do this because of the merger. They have a bunch of language that lets them un-do it if the merger doesn't close for some reason.
Viking Posted May 15 Posted May 15 28 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said: I have a friend, smarter than me, mining engineer 35 years in the business, rose to be CEO of Royal Gold and is still on the board of a mining company. I asked him what he thought to the merger. Similar thoughts to yours. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "I know the main assets of the combined company, some of which companies I worked for owned in the past. I know Ross Beaty and Chuck Jeannes well. Both are quality names in the business. Chuck and I worked together in San Francisco in the mid 1990s or Placer Dome and he went on to be CEO of Goldcorp, one of the largest gold companies of that time (now part of Newmont). Ross took a different route…he is known as one of the most successful gold mining entrepreneurs and started putting companies together many years ago. He is likely approaching a self-made billionaire but more importantly, a good guy. Greenstone, Camino Rojo and Musselwhite I know pretty well. I know of Los Filos but don’t know the details of the operation. I am surprised it is as big as noted in the presentation. This merger makes a lot of sense – economies of scale, cost optimization, people optimization and talent retention, Vancouver mafia based, balance sheet, geographic areas, growth potential. They will likely stay with NA assets. Building a company one asset at a time is common (which is what Chuck and Ross did separately here) but I suspect they will continue to buy. It is in their nature. The prize they are chasing is the larger company multiple. The best multiples are the royalty companies at 2x NAV or 20xCF. No operating company can match that but size matters when trying to close that gap." @NnnnotSoSmart, I appreciate your post. It appears Fairfax continues to put a premium on quality management. I love that. I also like that it appears management is highly focussed on making money - not empire building (with the combination being another step in the process). Very encouraging. It is super interesting to understand the key players in the gold mining space and how everyone knows each other very well. After 30 or 40 years in the business things like character and fit become pretty easy to see and match (one would think).
vinod1 Posted May 15 Posted May 15 On 5/13/2026 at 7:01 PM, Parsad said: Actually, you are not correct here. The only reason they didn't achieve 15% or better annualized was because of the equity hedging and short positions. They no longer do that since 2019. The macro bets at times were massive winners or in terms of the equities they hedged and short positions they bought after the GFC were massive losers...eliminated the upside of the equity investments they made in 2008-2009. Part of their new found glory is related to no longer making such significant macro bets and looking more for guaranteed income from bonds, interest, dividends, etc. With their leverage, they've realized they don't need homeruns to hit their goal...singles and doubles with the leverage will get them there and reduce their risk profile. Cheers! I am including the hedging and short positions as part of the equity portfolio which to me is where they belong. With these the expected return from their equities is essentially pure alpha which as I calculated is not going to get Fairfax acceptable returns. My main point being, alpha did not play as much a role in their performance as their business model. Vinod
Spooky Posted May 15 Posted May 15 22 hours ago, Viking said: Really? I think gold stocks have been weak in general the past few days... Both companies down bigly today.
Junior R Posted May 15 Posted May 15 39 minutes ago, Spooky said: Both companies down bigly today. gold down 2% today
glider3834 Posted May 16 Posted May 16 18 hours ago, adventurer said: Thank you. Any chance for a link that is not behind a paywall? unfortunately I don't have a sub must have been a one off complimentary article
mengan Posted May 16 Posted May 16 Metlen, largest position in the public portfolio, followed by Commercial International Bank of Egypt.
Hoodlum Posted May 19 Posted May 19 (edited) It looks like Fairfax will continue to buy more UAA at around $5. As of 5/15 they held 24% of the Class A shares. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000094787126000556/ss6330019_ex9906.htm Edited May 19 by Hoodlum
NnnnotSoSmart Posted May 22 Posted May 22 9 hours ago, Hoodlum said: BlackBerry stock has now doubled since the end of March. Anyone know Fairfax's average cost basis on BlackBerry?
jbwent63 Posted May 22 Posted May 22 Per the 2023 shareholder letter, the cost per share was $17.16 as of that date.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted May 22 Posted May 22 26 minutes ago, jbwent63 said: Per the 2023 shareholder letter, the cost per share was $17.16 as of that date. Thanks. Trying to get my head around why Fairfax would continue to own it. I prompted Grok to give me an update on what the current narrative is on Blackberry and why the stock has risen recently. For what it's worth: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BlackBerry (BB) stock rose sharply on May 21, 2026, closing up about 7.26% to $6.65. This marks continued momentum in 2026, with the stock up significantly year-to-date and hitting multi-year highs. Main Reasons for the Recent Rise BlackBerry has successfully transitioned from its old smartphone business to software-focused operations, centered on: QNX (embedded software for automotive, robotics, and industrial — especially driver assistance and "physical AI") Cybersecurity/Secure Communications (including tools for government and enterprises) Key recent drivers: Strong Q4 FY2026 Earnings (reported April 9, 2026): Revenue hit $156M (10%+ YoY growth, beating estimates), driven by record QNX revenue ($78.7M, +20% YoY) and a large royalty backlog (~$950M). This sparked a big initial pop and sustained buying. Ongoing QNX Momentum: Used in over 275 million vehicles. Partnerships (e.g., expanded with Nvidia for robotics/AI). Positive interviews and showcases highlighting growth in automotive and physical AI. FedRAMP Class D (High) Re-Certification (announced around May 20, 2026): This is a major U.S. government cloud security milestone, boosting credibility for mission-critical communications and potentially opening more federal contracts. Share Buybacks: The company renewed/expanded its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) program, signaling confidence that shares are undervalued. They’ve been actively repurchasing shares. Broader Sentiment: High options activity (often bullish calls), short covering from earlier meme-stock days, and analyst/investor optimism around the software turnaround. Current Context BB is trading near its 52-week high. Analysts generally rate it a Hold with targets around $4–$5 (some higher recently), but the market has been pricing in stronger growth. Next earnings (Q1 FY2027) expected around late June 2026. Bottom line: The rise reflects real business progress in QNX/cybersecurity, government wins, and capital return — not just hype. However, it remains a volatile stock tied to execution in competitive markets (auto software, cybersecurity). Always do your own research or consult an advisor, as stock prices can move quickly on news and sentiment.
jbwent63 Posted May 22 Posted May 22 On BB, now that they are below 5%, we will not know if they sold more than what was disclosed in early May until or unless there is a press release or the filing of the next 13-F. If I had to guess, I would think they have already exited the position given the recent activity and share price...
villainx Posted May 22 Posted May 22 56 minutes ago, jbwent63 said: I would think they have already exited the position given the recent activity and share price... But all the funds going to UA, amirite?
Hoodlum Posted May 23 Posted May 23 Grivalia Hospitality received additional approvals this week to develop their new 500M Euro luxury resort, branded under Six Senses. Presidential approval is expected in the coming months. I wonder if Fairfax gets involved with the debt facility for these developments. https://www-mononews-gr.translate.goog/business/me-to-kinitro-tou-eschase-i-ependysi-tis-grivalia-hospitality-stous-petalious?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp As has been announced, the financing of the investment project will be done with 20% equity and 80% debt, since a term sheet with competitive terms has already been signed. According to what the head of Grivalia Hospitality, George Chryssikos, has said, the biggest challenges facing the project are bureaucratic in nature, while since the project was designed, its budget has almost doubled.
Xerxes Posted May 27 Posted May 27 Micron at a $1T market cap ! I hope Prem didn’t sell Micron from the portfolio at $50B market cap based on “valuation concerns; we have seen it before in 1999”
Crip1 Posted May 27 Posted May 27 Those of you who want to point out the shortcomings of HWIC for not holding MIcron, congratulations on the gains on which you're sitting from your personal portfolio. -Crip
giulio Posted May 27 Posted May 27 If you write an email to Watsa to complain about the Micron sale, don't forget to cc Li Lu!
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