Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)

[maplevalue]

New interview by Druck:

 

 

Thanks for sharing!

[VersaillesinNY]

2021 Student Investment Fund Annual Meeting Keynote by Stanley Druckenmiller

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by VersaillesinNY

[Spekulatius]

There is also a sweet and short one with CNBC:

I always enjoy his commentary. He doesn’t have a fixed view and keeps an open mind.

[dcollon]

Thanks for posting Spekulatius.  Anyone have the full interview?

[LearningMachine]

Thanks @VersaillesinNY and @Spekulatius.

I really like what he said about how hard it is to predict which company will be successful in some areas long term, e.g.

• Facebook was the 11th social network
• Before Google, there was a company called Yahoo, and
• If cryptocurrency ends up being used for exchanges, the winning cryptocurrency might not even be invented yet

Edited May 15, 2021 by LearningMachine

[Viking]

15 hours ago, VersaillesinNY said:

2021 Student Investment Fund Annual Meeting Keynote by Stanley Druckenmiller

 

Thank you for posting. Some take aways:

1.) current investment positioning: short US$; positioned for inflation - long commodities (oil, copper etc); long equities. Will be surprised if he has not exited equity positioning by year end.

2.) Fed is supposed to be forward looking with policy. Focussed on employment which is a lagging indicator. This makes no sense.

3.) current environment: risky, interesting as hell, will end badly just don’t know when. 

4.) shorting: currently as much opportunity as he has seen in his lifetime on short side 

[VersaillesinNY]

Stanley Druckenmiller: “The greatest investors make large concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction”

https://thehustle.co/stanley-druckenmiller-q-and-a-trung-phanin 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, VersaillesinNY said:

Stanley Druckenmiller: “The greatest investors make large concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction”

https://thehustle.co/stanley-druckenmiller-q-and-a-trung-phanin 

And the rest goes broke doing the same thing.

[MattR]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

And the rest goes broke doing the same thing.

Yes, because they forget the other side of the coin to cut loses quickly.

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, MattR said:

Yes, because they forget the other side of the coin to cut loses quickly.

It is that simple.

[MattR]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It is that simple.

It is simple in theory - It is difficult emotionally. I tend to cut my loses quickly, but don't let my winners run enough others let their winners run more, but also hold onto losers. The most successful investors have both. They are quick to change their minds and adapt to new circumstances, yet let their winners run.

[Spekulatius]

Here is mother recent talk. Druckenmiller here gives actually a bit of trading advice:

1) He exits when he figures his thesis is wrong

2) He Never uses stop loss.

Is anyone using Toggle AI and if so, what is the experience? Today, IB has a Webinar today about Toggle AI around lunch time, so if it is quiet at work, I might give it a listen.

Edited June 2, 2021 by Spekulatius

[Aurel]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Here is mother recent talk. Druckenmiller here gives actually a bit of trading advice:

1) He exits when he figures his thesis is wrong

2) He Never uses stop loss.

Is anyone using Toggle AI and if so, what is the experience? Today, IB has a Webinar today about Toggle AI around lunch time, so if it is quiet at work, I might give it a listen.

 

I'm very impressed, that he is still so hungry + an early adopter in this tech-stuff (exept crypto )!

[dcollon]

Brief interview with Stanley Druckenmiller

https://www.msnbc.com/stephanie-ruhle/watch/druckenmiller-warns-of-dire-consequences-of-more-government-spending-117262917868

[Viking]

Great interview with Druckenmiller from June 9, 2022 (link at bottom). Some thoughts:

1.) to do what Druckenmiller does (in terms of strategy) you pretty much need to be a full time investor; at a minimum very committed/focused. That is my (Viking’s) opinion.

2.) where are we now? 6 months into bear market that has some more room to run.

- there is no historical analogue for the situation today

- he is trying to be open minded about all the possible outcomes

3.) what are you doing today? Waiting for a fat pitch. 
- low conviction now

- had been aggressively shorting

- owns some oil
4.) general strategy: 

- looks out 12-18 months

- develops high conviction idea 3-4 times per year

- put all eggs in one basket; watch very closely

5.) lesson from Soros: sizing is 70-80% of the equation

- its not whether you are right or wrong

- its how much you make when you are right

- and how much you lose when you are wrong

6.) are you on a hot or cold streak (like a batter in baseball)?
- know the difference; size positions accordingly

7.) actual mechanics when you find an opportunity

- intuition says yes; also fits macro view

- buy

- then do the analysis

- get out if it doesn’t pan out

- if you wait to but you may miss the first big move

8.) current set up:

- high oil prices

- rising interest rates

- rising US$

- has ALWAYS BEEN TERRIBLE for corporate earnings looking forward

9.) advice for new investor

- DO NOT INVEST IN PRESENT

- envision the world in 12-18 months and what will drive security prices

- focus on what will move the stock (learned this from his original mentor); what will be the catalyst

- how are people going to think differently in 18-24 months about the security from what they are thinking today; it is change that moves the security.

10.) macro investors perform best in bear markets

- perhaps that is why so many macro people are so bearish

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Viking

[ACooke]

Fantastic listen as always; well worth the hour.

[dcollon]

Thanks very much for posting the video

[tede02]

I love Druck. He has such a unique approach and perspective. He also has humility as he regularly points out how often he's been wrong. His point on sizing bets, which I've heard him discuss many times, has really stuck with me. 

[VersaillesinNY]

 

[Libs]

Druck's internet bubble story is classic (at about the 40 minute mark). Even old-school fundamental stock pickers can learn from this guy. 

[VersaillesinNY]

CNBC Transcript: Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stanley Druckenmiller Speaks with CNBC’s Joe Kernen Live During the CNBC Delivering Alpha Conference 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/cnbc-transcript-duquesne-family-office-chairman-ceo-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-joe-kernen-live-during-the-cnbc-delivering-alpha-conference-today.html

[ACooke]

17 minutes ago, VersaillesinNY said:

CNBC Transcript: Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stanley Druckenmiller Speaks with CNBC’s Joe Kernen Live During the CNBC Delivering Alpha Conference 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/cnbc-transcript-duquesne-family-office-chairman-ceo-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-joe-kernen-live-during-the-cnbc-delivering-alpha-conference-today.html

Just jumped in to post this, too.

Well worth a read.

[dcollon]

Always nice to read his thoughts.  Thank you for posting the interview 

[Gamecock-YT]

It's hard to dispute the financial arguments. I guess I'd have to go back when the Fed was pumping timing to all the vaccine stuff he was talking about. 

[Castanza]

 

@Spekulatius You might find this interesting. I think you said you liked Karp in another thread.