Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)

[VersaillesinNY]

Stanley's interview starts at 2 hours and 6 min:

 

 

Transcript: https://tidalwave.substack.com/p/transcript-druckenmiller-april-2023

[thowed]

Thanks!  I much prefer a transcript but can't always find them.  I still always find him interesting for inspiration - he's rare in having the humility to acknowledge that he doesn't know the answer, but provides interesting ideas to consider.

[VersaillesinNY]

 

[Viking]

54 minutes ago, VersaillesinNY said:

 

i always enjoy listening to Druckenmiller. Was he sounding a little gloomier than normal? An age thing? Interesting that he is neutral in terms of positioning: i.e. in a couple of years we could see 8% inflation OR deflation. Why such an extreme variation in outcomes? IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHAT THE FED DOES. 

 

Since 2010 all an investor has had to do to be successful is to follow the Fed. So what does the Fed do when inflation gets down to 3% and unemployment starts to increase? Do we get Burns or Volker? Of course, we don’t know that right now. Hence, Druckenmiller’s view we might get 8% inflation (Burns) or deflation (Volker). 

[VersaillesinNY]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-06-07/druckenmiller-on-how-ai-is-dominating-his-long-portfolio?sref=iO3LZPgY 

[Gregmal]

You know Drunkenmiller is a great trader. He has to be. Because he’s pretty much always wrong about his macro calls lol. 

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good interview and it’s not formost about AI. He does own NVDA.

To touches upon upon China (not a fan), Trump (ditto), Biden (ditto).

 

[VersaillesinNY]

 

[dcollon]

Thanks very much for posting. 

[UK]

Interesting interview, but, as always, perhaps not very actionable, at least for me. But I liked his position on USD (after being wrong several times recently) this time: would love to hate it, until I look at every alternative available:))

[gfp]

3 hours ago, UK said:

Interesting interview, but, as always, perhaps not very actionable, at least for me. But I liked his position on USD (after being wrong several times recently) this time: would love to hate it, until I look at every alternative available:))

 

So I had this curve steepener trade on as a hedge and have closed it out.  The CME came out with a product called "Micro" yield futures that make the trade a lot more straightforward to put on.  The contracts are sized by CME to automatically match size  ($10 per basis point of yield) so you don't have to figure out a proper ratio of contracts to trade a spread like 2s-10s.

 

The interesting thing about this trade, as a hedge or otherwise, was that I was wrong on my thesis and the inversion still went away and I made the same profit.  I fully expected the 2-10 inversion to flatten because the 2 year would be very responsive to recession and the market's re-evaluation of short term interest rate direction - a "bull steepener".  The opposite occurred - we had a stronger economy than I expected (wabuffo was not surprised), and the 2 year stayed flat while the 10 year and 30 year yields moved up - a "bear steepener."

 

So the hedge designed to pay me in the event of recession ended up also paying me for the opposite outcome.

 

[UK]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

So I had this curve steepener trade on as a hedge and have closed it out.  The CME came out with a product called "Micro" yield futures that make the trade a lot more straightforward to put on.  The contracts are sized by CME to automatically match size  ($10 per basis point of yield) so you don't have to figure out a proper ratio of contracts to trade a spread like 2s-10s.

 

The interesting thing about this trade, as a hedge or otherwise, was that I was wrong on my thesis and the inversion still went away and I made the same profit.  I fully expected the 2-10 inversion to flatten because the 2 year would be very responsive to recession and the market's re-evaluation of short term interest rate direction - a "bull steepener".  The opposite occurred - we had a stronger economy than I expected (wabuffo was not surprised), and the 2 year stayed flat while the 10 year and 30 year yields moved up - a "bear steepener."

 

So the hedge designed to pay me in the event of recession ended up also paying me for the opposite outcome.

 

 

Interesting! Thanks for sharing.