Gregmal Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Well rest assured, he is now confident he has shrunk his fund back to a size where its returns will no longer be impeded... Additionally he is opening it to new investors so that they can take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Well rest assured, he is now confident he has shrunk his fund back to a size where its returns will no longer be impeded... Additionally he is opening it to new investors so that they can take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity. What a disgusting sales pitch. :o I think these billionaires became where they are because of their luck and sales skills, not because of their alpha skills. If he can make money on 2.5b, why is he losing 34% on 4 bn last year? And now that he is open and taking more cash, the 2.5b will quickly go back to 4bn like last year, so does that mean he will be losing again? This is just non sense. GRLE is trading at 0.6 book. He has been an activist for life. Can some other activist take over his portfolio? I wish I have enough money to be an activist and liquidate his entire portfolio and run my own strategy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. A little OT, the CEO of pets.com was Julie Wainwright. She has done alright. She just took public the company she started in 2011, The RealReal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 I think the point he is trying to make, is the same one he's been trying to make for AT LEAST the last half decade. And it s a point worth considering for ANY investor. But he always goes about making it in a way that serves his needs and justifies his lousy performance. As you even pointed out, he misrepresents things quite often, and just doesn't learn from his mistakes. I mean look, there are businesses out there trading at prices a rational investor should never consider paying. But that's fine, no one forces you or me or anyone to go buy them. There is plenty of $$$ oozing out of other opportunities...focus on that! Its just so off putting and dishonest IMO the way some of these guys act like "Oh Tesla is crazy...thats why I lost 20% last year...the market is out of control"... when thats just not really something that makes a whole lot of sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porcupine Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Aside from the first mover advantage, what competitive edge does Chewy have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Aside from the first mover advantage, what competitive edge does Chewy have? Is it a first mover? We've been ordering cat food and cat litter from Amazon for ages... Amazon has some 1st-party availability issues, but for the things it carries the prices are a bit cheaper than Chewy and shipping is free with Prime (vs $49 spend to get free shipping with Chewy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Aside from the first mover advantage, what competitive edge does Chewy have? Is it a first mover? We've been ordering cat food and cat litter from Amazon for ages... Amazon has some 1st-party availability issues, but for the things it carries the prices are a bit cheaper than Chewy and shipping is free with Prime (vs $49 spend to get free shipping with Chewy). Chewy has only seen 9% net sales per active customer growth. Not sure if that can be called a great number but it does show some margin of customer "loyalty". The competition basically offers the same deal 30% off for subscribing, exclusive deals and of course free shipping. I'd imagine margin on pet food if low. And it certainly can't be cheap for these companies to front the shipping costs. Does the average consumer even know the difference between Petco, PetSmart and Chewy? Who owns who etc? I doubt it. As far as allegiance goes I bet customers stick with whoever they buy from first. Buying pet supplies is more like a utility payment than anything else. Out of sight out of mind. I don't think it's necessarily first mover that's important. More so first to acquire. Why else would these companies all be offering ridiculous discounts where they are probably losing money? It's all about getting people to sign up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one. That's really interesting, thanks. From Chewy's website FAQ: "Orders over $49 ship free! All other orders ship for a flat rate of $4.95." I wonder how much their average cost to ship a 50lb bag of dog food is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one. That's really interesting, thanks. From Chewy's website FAQ: "Orders over $49 ship free! All other orders ship for a flat rate of $4.95." I wonder how much their average cost to ship a 50lb bag of dog food is? IDK but Amazon will ship a bag costing $26.74 for free. https://www.amazon.com/Purina-Chow-Complete-Food-Bonus/dp/B00PFXFH6O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one. That's really interesting, thanks. From Chewy's website FAQ: "Orders over $49 ship free! All other orders ship for a flat rate of $4.95." I wonder how much their average cost to ship a 50lb bag of dog food is? IDK but Amazon will ship a bag costing $26.74 for free. https://www.amazon.com/Purina-Chow-Complete-Food-Bonus/dp/B00PFXFH6O Well if you do a quick shipping quote on UPS website for a 40lb bag (retail $27) 26x16x6 Standard Ground service in state = $28 shipping cost. I used a local Amazon warehouse to my houses address. Things this doesn't address: - Manufacturer -> Amazon cost - 2 Day shipping - Labor fee for packaging, handling in warehouse I don't see how Amazon or any company can pay for the shipping costs on this. Dog food (according to the internet :P) is a low margin product from the manufacturer. - The original manufacturer certainly isn't taking a loss on this - UPS certainly isn't taking a loss (although they are only making pennies) - Amazon almost certainly IS taking a loss and subsidizing the costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cameronfen Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0... I get that you think Einhorn is an idiot, a point that has been repeated ad infinitum on this board in recent years. Do you have any actual thoughts on the point he's trying to make here? I thought the Pets.com-Chewy parallel was an interesting one. Of course Einhorn leaves out alot, like that Pets.com was nearly pre-revenue when it IPO'd. Chewy is an actual business. Pets.com was never much more than an idea. More broadly, I think the profitability of selling dog food on the internet is still an open question. Zooplus in Europe looks like it operates around break even. Even more broadly, I agree with Einhorn that many US companies seem priced for something close to perfection. For what it's worth, when I was at UPS I remember whenever the Chewy's contract came up for bid UPS pursued it hard. Dog food deliveries were (for UPS) high margin. Dense heavy product packed in a box as small as possible that was pretty much a recurring monthly shipment. Pet food deliveries were always increasing yoy. Again, from Chewy's perspective can it be profitable? I don't know. All I can say is, the demand seems to be there for the product and delivery service. Customers had nothing but good things to say about it. Women loved not having to pick up 50lb bags at the grocery store. Cat litter is also another big one. That's really interesting, thanks. From Chewy's website FAQ: "Orders over $49 ship free! All other orders ship for a flat rate of $4.95." I wonder how much their average cost to ship a 50lb bag of dog food is? IDK but Amazon will ship a bag costing $26.74 for free. https://www.amazon.com/Purina-Chow-Complete-Food-Bonus/dp/B00PFXFH6O Well if you do a quick shipping quote on UPS website for a 40lb bag (retail $27) 26x16x6 Standard Ground service in state = $28 shipping cost. I used a local Amazon warehouse to my houses address. Things this doesn't address: - Manufacturer -> Amazon cost - 2 Day shipping - Labor fee for packaging, handling in warehouse I don't see how Amazon or any company can pay for the shipping costs on this. Dog food (according to the internet :P) is a low margin product from the manufacturer. - The original manufacturer certainly isn't taking a loss on this - UPS certainly isn't taking a loss (although they are only making pennies) - Amazon almost certainly IS taking a loss and subsidizing the costs. So Zooplus talks about this in their presentations. Basically its cheaper to pay shipping costs on pets products and store them in wharehouses located in the middle of nowhere, than pay for a store in some urban area and pay for employees to sell the product. IIRC, Amazon is losing money maybe even gross margin per sale, but, at scale, both Chewy and Amazon have a structural advantage over pet food stores as they are cheaper and more convinient. The million dollar question is how much money will they make when they are at scale and no longer undercutting competitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just as much conviction as ever. For the 77th quarter in a row. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/david-einhorn-sees-enormous-tech-bubble-adds-a-few-stocks-to-portfolio.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Hilarious. Will it ever end? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3682289-greenlights-einhorn-takes-on-lax-regulators-gamestop-short-squeeze-in-q1-letter Basically "I failed to learn anything and missed some big potential catalysts and lost a ton of money shorting.....again. And its everyone else's fault" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 lol. I think it was Jim Chanos who said something to the effect of don't count on regulators taking action for your short thesis to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, JRM said: lol. I think it was Jim Chanos who said something to the effect of don't count on regulators taking action for your short thesis to work. So the logic is - the opportunity exists because regulators do nothing, but that's going to change once I am short the stock. My own experience is that stocks don't care if I own or short them however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, JRM said: lol. I think it was Jim Chanos who said something to the effect of don't count on regulators taking action for your short thesis to work. Einhorn literally wrote a book about a fraud he identified where regulators failed to act. I think it's a bit if a shallow interpretation to say that he's counting on the regulators to make his shorts work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) I've read his book about Allied Capital. I also try to follow what he writes about and invests in because I generally agree with him. So what has changed in 20 years? Einhorn still seems to be worried about the SECs whereabouts in his shorts positions? Edited April 16, 2021 by JRM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice77 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) Einhorn’s stubbornness sometimes reminds me of the flexibility of Soros strangely. When Soros would come across an approach to making money that he couldn’t do himself he would carve out a part of his capital and hand that to the specific strategy/manager. He wasn’t stubborn about it. There are many ways to make money and he didn’t have to master them himself or be fixated about only his own as if it was his sworn religion. Maybe that came from his trading mindset (even though in early 70s he started out as a value investor himself). Flexibility and open mindedness is less common than we realize. Edited April 16, 2021 by Ice77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Ive read the book as well and its a great read, but I mean does it really take a genius to realize regulator action is a poor bet? Ackman nailed everything about Herbalife and got nowhere. Regulators do not want to kill companies or cause too much disruption. Having had a business a while ago that regularly had to interact with regulators, I can tell you that they love going after the small and irrelevant companies hard. Many people believe they are in favor of consolidation as it makes their jobs easier. They just dont take action nor wish to fight with companies that can push back. And thats just the way it is. Its just remarkable to me, how people like Einhorn refuse to learn or adapt and rather just sit there for eternity claiming they are right and everyone else is wrong. Allied wasnt even that great of a short and realistically, it only blew up because everything else did due to the fallout of GFC. Not because Einhorn was eventually right. I thought his Lehman work was some of his best and most timely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Einhorn was in easy mode with respect to shorting for a while, because he could short a stock in size, then present his thesis on a conference which would tank the stock due to all those ridealongs. this would allow him to cover his position almost for a guaranteed profit. This reputation is not there any more as he (and his coattail shortsellers even more so) have taken a bath on stocks like Green Mountain. Ever since then, he has been struggling and it hasn't helped that his longs weren't that great either. Just look at how GLRE has done. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/07/greenlights-david-einhorn-gets-roasted-on-keurig-green-mountain-deal.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 My only point is to say I don't think Einhorn is waiting for the SEC to take down Musk as justification of his short in Tesla. I think he knows its unlikely the regulators will do anything. I don't think him publicly acknowledging that is necessarily anything more than him stating the obvious - action should have been taken and wasn't. I doubt it's the reason he's short or the reason his short isn't working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 If there is no relevance to his thesis then it just comes off like excuse making, which seems to be the case with every letter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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