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Brexit, Trump, and now Italy wants to exit EU?


muscleman
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The "problem" here beeing the Italian banks, where EU don't accept the Italian State to bail out the Italian banks, because it's considered state subsidies by EU, based on common EU competition regulation. [Denmark has also had such certain cases with Danish banks].

 

Basically, everybody - except the greek citizens and I - want to leave EU. Nothing new under the sky here.

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Yes. Basically Italy cannot exit the EU. It will unleash a massive banking crisis which will be incredibly bad for the Italian economy. It was different for Greece. Since Greek banks were essentially already bankrupt they didn't much to loose. But you don't want to trigger a banking crisis just cause you're bored.

 

But then when you put it to the people anything can happen. Plus it's quite hard to explain the mechanisms of a banking crisis to a population. Fun times!

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  • 2 weeks later...

The voting procedure is running right now in Italy.  I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see.

 

I see Austria stayed the course this weekend. 

 

Maybe, just maybe, voters everywhere else are looking at the US muckety-muck, and realize that each of them as individuals can elect a creep, by accident. 

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The voting procedure is running right now in Italy.  I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see.

 

I see Austria stayed the course this weekend. 

 

Maybe, just maybe, voters everywhere else are looking at the US muckety-muck, and realize that each of them as individuals can elect a creep, by accident.

 

Speaking of Italian creeps; did Trump & Berlusconi ever hang out togeather?

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Not sure, sailor of this board,

 

So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws.  - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what!

 

I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!].

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The voting procedure is running right now in Italy.  I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see.

 

I see Austria stayed the course this weekend. 

 

Maybe, just maybe, voters everywhere else are looking at the US muckety-muck, and realize that each of them as individuals can elect a creep, by accident.

 

Speaking of Italian creeps; did Trump & Berlusconi ever hang out togeather?

 

Funny, whenever I look to a comparable recent leader to the States' new Jackass, I think of Berlusconi.  Voters are so stupid sometimes.  God give me the strength to ignore these embarassments to the human species. 

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Not sure, sailor of this board,

 

So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws.  - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what!

 

I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!].

 

Isn't it like 5 am in Denmark?

 

Cheers, Al

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Not sure, sailor of this board,

 

So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws.  - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what!

 

I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!].

 

Isn't it like 5 am in Denmark?

 

Cheers, Al

At this point is easier to just stay up  ;D

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Remember you need to distinguish between the EU and the Euro.  I'm not aware of an Italian party that wants to leave the EU.  But the major parties that campaigned for no in this constitutional reform referendum - which therefore now have political momentum - do view the Euro unfavourably.  And that's hardly surprising given that the economy is 8% smaller than 8 years ago.  The Euro is having the same effect on the peripheral European states as the gold standard had in Depression America.  It will be interesting to see how this evolves.

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We are really clearing up cancer from our society or this Left thing and markets are in full agreement. Next on the agenda is Merkel.

 

Cardboard

 

Merkel is not going to survive another selection as a chancellor - the refuge disaster in Germany alone is enough reason for that.

 

Inclined to agree.

 

Euro 1.0 is a house of cards, but only worked so long as no-one called the bluff.

But Brexit did exactly that though many tried to dismiss it as just an irrational act (denial). The Trump win has rubbed the underlying reasons in the face of Europe (millions of people not benefiting from progress), & proved it isn't isolated. The Italian rejection has now removed the excuse that this is just something that happened 'over there'. It is very hard to imagine that this underlying 'angst' does not exist in every country of the EU; it's just a matter of how many governments topple, & which ones.   

 

The normal state of affairs in Europe is warfare of some type, even today (ie: the baltic states). Flushing todays 'radicals' into the sterility of daylight is highly desirable; its a competitive space, and it forces change - which will happen whether we want it or not. Damming change up behind a wall just creates devastation when the dam eventually breaks. Europe has had two World Wars to prove it.   

 

To dam change you have to use fear - the change is so frightening we have to lock it up ... creating the threat.

Calling the bluff (Trump) pops the bubble, & releases the water behind the dam. 

 

Interesting times

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We are really clearing up cancer from our society or this Left thing and markets are in full agreement. Next on the agenda is Merkel.

 

Cardboard

 

Yeah right, If the populist movement for the worker's rights is clearing the "Left thing" then bring it on. Conservatism is in the dumps now. Open trade done. Immigration agenda gone. Defense will be cut. Infrastructure spending will go up. Trump ran to the left of Clinton and we are heading towards left from here my friend.

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