Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-21/warren-buffett-s-florida-bet-bodes-well-for-troubled-insurance-market#xj4y7vzkg

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by UK

[cubsfan]

On 7/19/2023 at 9:16 PM, dealraker said:

Some say I am about as fit as anyone ever my age at 69.  If so, my view is that with age strength training is probably even more important than cardio.  Of course I do both, but I do witness that those around me who do almost nothing but cardio seem very fragile.  I have  reduced the weights, but  try to be regular.

 

Still it is interesting that with age that the things I do regularly like cycling, mostly mountain biking, I am noticing little change.  But things I do irregularly like wakeboarding, tennis, or pickleball...well my hand-eye coordination is far down as is my ability to recover from the physical stresses.

 

 

It’s very true. 
 

There definitely is a difference. You can continue to build strength for years. What diminishes is your ability to exhibit power. Power is strength put to use quickly. That is youth. So you can get stronger and still run, but you can’t run the hundred in 10 seconds anymore. Michael Jordan can still be very strong, but his vertical jump is no longer 44 inches - which is a display of power (strength put to use quickly).

 

But you can still get stronger and also improve your cardio.

[dealraker]

27 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

It’s very true. 
 

There definitely is a difference. You can continue to build strength for years. What diminishes is your ability to exhibit power. Power is strength put to use quickly. That is youth. So you can get stronger and still run, but you can’t run the hundred in 10 seconds anymore. Michael Jordan can still be very strong, but his vertical jump is no longer 44 inches - which is a display of power (strength put to use quickly).

 

But you can still get stronger and also improve your cardio.

Yep.

[UK]

[whatstheofficerproblem]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-03/buffett-is-buying-treasuries-regardless-of-us-downgrade-by-fitch

 

Is he deploying the float? The brooklyn investor was right.

 

https://brklyninvestor.com/2023/07/04/value-of-brk-float-buffett-market-view-etc/

[John Hjorth]

@whatstheofficerproblem,

 

Have you thought about what Mr. Buffett thinks about the work and reporting of Fitch? [He does not care - at all.]

[whatstheofficerproblem]

14 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@whatstheofficerproblem,

 

Have you thought about what Mr. Buffett thinks about the work and reporting of Fitch? [He does not care - at all.]

 

The downgrade didn't even make him blink, seems like he isn't willing to bite bonds below 5%, makes we wonder what the spread between the interest rate/treasury and inflation was when he did buy these bonds. Would be interesting to see him buy junk (high-yield) again.

[Spekulatius]

I had no idea that Berkshire has a business makes boats. A friend of us bought a used boat from Forest River and took us out on a lake yesterday.

 

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I had no idea that Berkshire has a business makes boats. A friend of us bought a used boat from Forest River and took us out on a lake yesterday.

 

They make RVs and campers too. When my kids were young I had a Forest River “Rockwood Roo” camper for a few years.  I bought it used, fixed it up, used it for 3 years then sold it for significantly more than I paid for it.

[Spekulatius]

This is a Ponton boat. This type were the majority on that lake (Highland lake in NH) but most were from Sylvan. $BC owners will be happy to hear that ~80% had a Mercury outboard engine with the rest being Yamaha.

 

Our friends  bought this boat a few weeks ago used and in pretty good condition for ~18K, which sounds like a good price to me (coming from someone who knows nothing about boats).

[fareastwarriors]

On 8/6/2023 at 6:03 AM, Spekulatius said:

I had no idea that Berkshire has a business makes boats. A friend of us bought a used boat from Forest River and took us out on a lake yesterday.

 

 

Looks like a beautiful day on the water. Work hard, play (relax) harder!

[DooDiligence]

On 8/6/2023 at 8:03 AM, Spekulatius said:

I had no idea that Berkshire has a business makes boats. A friend of us bought a used boat from Forest River and took us out on a lake yesterday.

 

 

Pontoons are the best!

[Ulti]

https://rationalwalk.com/a-very-strange-public-offering/

 

Interesting article on Brkb issuance in 1996

[yesman182]

22 hours ago, Ulti said:

https://rationalwalk.com/a-very-strange-public-offering/

 

Interesting article on Brkb issuance in 1996

I had never seen the quote where buffet said "The very best we hope for is – on average – to double Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value every five years, and we may well fall far short of that goal." So in 1996 is was shooting for 15% annual growth. 

[Munger_Disciple]

2 hours ago, yesman182 said:

I had never seen the quote where buffet said "The very best we hope for is – on average – to double Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value every five years, and we may well fall far short of that goal." So in 1996 is was shooting for 15% annual growth. 

 

Berkshire (stock price) CAGR since 1996 is roughly 11.1%. Pretty decent though short of the 15% Buffett aimed for in 1996. Most likely the result of very low interest rates from 2001 onwards. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Munger_Disciple

[Luca]

 

Moves for this Quarter!

 

 

 

[longterminvestor]

7 hours ago, yesman182 said:

I had never seen the quote where buffet said "The very best we hope for is – on average – to double Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value every five years, and we may well fall far short of that goal." So in 1996 is was shooting for 15% annual growth. 

Berkshire's Intrinsic Value is an internal yardstick and very much independent of the value of the business.  Mr. Buffett's hurdle for any business is 15% return day one and compound from there - believe that is an Alice Schroeder quote.  

[gfp]

For anyone that is curious about Berkshire's Q2 activity in Foreign stocks other than BYD, here is Gen Re's Q2 activity - no equity purchases.  Sales of Nestle, Munich Re, and Allianz.  (one page pdf attached)

gen re q2 page 159.pdf

[gfp]

This is an excerpt from National Indemnity's 2nd quarter NAIC filing, with the pages showing the investments acquired and disposed during the quarter.  You can figure what price they got for the early sales of ATVI ($79.57 average per share).  They also sold some Munich Re shares in NICO.

 

Also an interesting new derivative security with a 3 year term that seems to be effected if there is another earthquake in Chile.

nico q2 naic pgs 178 181.pdf

Edited August 16, 2023 by gfp

[BiggieCheese]

Thank you gfp! Have you found the Japanese trading houses held in other insurance subsidiaries or are you under the impression that the $2.8b of purchases during the quarter is the total for Berkshire during Q2?

[Cigarbutt]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

This is an excerpt from National Indemnity's 2nd quarter NAIC filing, with the pages showing the investments acquired and disposed during the quarter.  You can figure what price they got for the early sales of ATVI ($79.57 average per share).  They also sold some Munich Re shares in NICO.

 

Also an interesting new derivative security with a 3 year term that appears to pay off asymmetrically if there is another earthquake in Chile.

nico q2 naic pgs 178 181.pdf 377.29 kB · 6 downloads

This (new derivative) seems to be related to a World Bank issue (of cat bonds and catastrophe swaps) to help Chile deal with its own issues. The cat swap seems to pay a 4.75% per year risk margin in exchange for payout risk to Chile (through the Bank).

 

Case-Study-Chile-2023-CatBond.pdf (worldbank.org)

-----

Personal note. i'm in the middle of renewing various personal insurance contracts including home insurance. During quite a lengthy conversation, i included most things in the home contract tentative agreement but somehow declined the coverage related to direct damage from an earthquake. Now seeing this picture, i'm no longer sure. Also, it reminds me that it can be a pain to hold (re)insurers when the hurricane season is about to start. Think long term, they say.

[gfp]

1 hour ago, BiggieCheese said:

Thank you gfp! Have you found the Japanese trading houses held in other insurance subsidiaries or are you under the impression that the $2.8b of purchases during the quarter is the total for Berkshire during Q2?

 

I think that is all of the Japanese activity there in NICO but I haven't pulled the Columbia Insurance subsidiary filing for Q2 yet so I can't say for sure.  I'll let you know if I see them anywhere else.  The filings are at https://insdata.naic.org but they cost around $4 USD each so I post them to save the other nerds the $. 

[hasilp89]

these are great @gfp thank you for sharing.

[gfp]

I took a look at the Columbia Insurance filing for q2 and the only new information there was that they bought and completely sold Pulte Group during the quarter as part of the homebuilder basket someone is doing.  

 

This filing makes it look like they bought some Apple stock in the quarter but they really didn't.  This is just a transfer from Brilliant National Services, one of the bankrupt asbestos liability shells that BRK put out the press release about earlier this year.

columbia ins q2 pgs 177 178.pdf

[mjm]

do know strongest earthquake ever recorded was in Chile