Gregmal

Another feather in the hat, fo sho.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3711423-bridgewaters-ray-dalio-concerned-about-potential-for-housing-bubble Dalio is concerned. Me?

Yea I am not an expert on energy/commodity but have been spending some time on the stuff for a few months now once it became obvious the tailwind. If you want to go multi bagger I think stuff like BKEP is interesting, as is EPSN. RIG has also had a ton of insider buying and is the definition of a high leverage bet. Dont know a lot about Obsidian other than the great stuff SD has contributed. You could also just buy OTM LEAPs on higher quality stuff as well. My preference at the moment is go big or go home type stuff because this isnt really stuff I want to own forever. Certainly wouldnt be investing in it for 10-20% annual returns.

I dont know if there is a specific thread but theres been random talk on a few. Summary: You just had a long and brutal winter in the space. Widespread, decade long period of layoffs, plant closures, and bankruptcy. For good measure covid crash buttfucked the remaining brave souls...negative oil? Who'da thought? So there was a mega washout. Now, supply/demand out of whack from covid shutdowns and supply chain issues. Now throw in rapid reopening, stimulus money, demand for travel, building/renovations, and consumer products. Add in for good measure all this stupid ESG stuff and very hostile government attitude towards production/drilling...less drilling going forward against big demand. Oh yea, and now theres an infrastructure spending bill lol. People focus on lumber and the like, and it's valid, but crude has surged and likely won't stop, HRC just touched $1800...Some of the stuff like lumber I expect to just see the big one off run and then settle at a still higher than before price. But other stuff is not IMO going to be transitory and when people realize this, look out. I dont know if Id call it a bubble, but super cycle is more appropriate. Bubble IMO is the stupid EV spac stuff. Green energy for the most part is dumb and not really profitable from a business perspective, at least for shareholders. Maybe solar panel stuff sure but generally speaking, I'd want to be really long some of the old economy energy/commodity stuff right now.

^Thats basically the gist. Monetary policy and government have created an environment that has and will inevitably continue to produce bubbles. From there its just about anticipating money flow. If the fundamentals are strong, the deck is even more stacked. Everything has setup perfectly for housing/certain real estate. Energy/commodities too.

Yea Ive seen some bit of a plateau in some places, but not a ton. Which is great because as long as things dont blow up(which I am not sure I see a scenario where that happens) then the homebuilders gonna build. Flood supply, equal lots of profit for builders. Lack of supply, means big application for existing owners. An opportunity in the market, made available to you by guys like the one linked in the OP...who havent been this excited to go against the crowd and will proudly be wrong for a long time. Their skepticism is my alpha.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/home-price-gains-in-april-truly-extraordinary-sp-case-shiller-says.html

Sometimes you just need to move on. Or just leave the position alone. Taking losses is part of the game. Nothing to be phased by. If there are lessons to learn, learn from them. Otherwise, its not much to cry over. No different really then a card counter crying because they lose a hand. Just part of the game.

SFH affordability isnt an issue if you already own these assets. Canada has already shown us the crystal ball in terms of what lack of affordability/supply means. Its good to have DMV style lines of people waiting to buy your assets. Its still amazing to me how people gripe about returns or valuations when you can get 5-10% in RE, with your eyes closed.

Buffett has been saying for over half a decade that if the 10 year is 2%, then stocks are massively undervalued. The 10 year is currently 1.5%. The rest of the world is 0 or negative. I dont know where or when people became entitled to buy stocks at 10-15x earnings or established these outlandish parameters for an investment. I dont mean to pick on anyone(just making an example) but think its a good example of being to pessimistic....but if your baseline is that the 10 year goes to 10-15% in the next few years and the S&P drops 50% and won't touch anything that has less than 30+ year maturity debt....well you're just unnecessarily eliminating the majority of the things you can invest in. If you fight the urge to be sensational and stay grounded in whats rational and likely, chances are you will do a lot better.

Eh DTLA still trades well north of 50% par and I'd amusingly wager the FNMAs are settled up/resolved well before that shitshow.

Yea well thats why investing is awesome. It can only cost you what you put into it. It can go up multiples of that. Too many people treat buying a stock like theyre shorting a call option. If you size it correctly and the worst case is only 100% loss, thats a huge advantage over time, assuming your selection process is semi competent.

Yea that's where my trading instinct is leaning a little. These are the type of "all hope is lost" setups where fortunes can be made. 3:1 or 4:1 from previous levels didnt really seem all that appealing....again, note to self, I was basically just asleep on this here because "so much upside eventually"....definitely should have been more active but yea from current levels you dont need a whole lot to get a pretty wicked return and downside is probably muted a bit. My problem is that I dont see any resolution that changes the overall bind shareholders are currently in. And that this has been a waste of time for a decade and theres better ideas out there.

https://seekingalpha.com/author/glen-bradford#regular_articles You wanna start the gofundme or should I? I enjoyed his analysis from time to time but holy risk management.

Already word out from NYT that Calabria is gone. Any guesses on a replacement? My guess is its a walking diversity meme that will use shareholder resources to get lower income folks into homes on terms not available to other parts of the population. Debating whether to sell out here, but will probably just keep it til year end rounds out and I can do some more tax planning. Also want to keep an eye out for any angle where there could be a glimmer of hope. Typically when all hope is lost thats where an opportunity emerges. But as I said before, this isnt a market driven investment. And I see no light at the tunnel as far as getting out of the current government dictated situation.

A few post mortem notes, at least my take aways: 1) Anyone who says politics and investing shouldn't go together can go fuck themselves. 2) This was not something that was going to be settled by market factors, but rather the "system/establishment". Trading to de-risk should have been a given, and I didnt really do this here because the position was small. Can do better there for sure. 3) If the past 18 months have branded with a white hot iron anything into folks, it should be that regardless of red/blue, government can and will do absolutely whatever they want and people have no recourse or at best a very expensive legal journal with shitty risk/reward skew. There's still gym owners with 7 figure fines and court battles for doing nothing but trying to operate and serve their customers. Every year that passes people have less sympathy for investors who last money in 2009. Dont fight the Fed, and dont fight the government. Period. 4)America is in the process of doling out dual class share structure vouchers. Certain people just dont have rights anymore and others are seeing their greatly diminished. Here, on the lowest end, you still had people with savings whom were harmed. There is a significant portion of the country that feels that if you have money to save/invest, you have more than you need. On the other end, you had a bunch of wealthy hedge funds....LOL yea right! No way they get their headline victory. This I feel is ultimately what determined the outcome. 5) Fuck Mnuchin. He was kind of the key and chose the establishment and self interest over doing what he was put in place to do.

At least these things will finally provide me some sort of value. Much needed tax losses.

Every facet of the bear cases generally rely on things that could apply to plenty of other investments...particularly new or disruptive ones that people missed and are bitter about. Its always important to be critical...but part of being critical is being open minded. I think there's merit to crypto, but also think its value is no different than that of gold...basically, whatever someone else is willing to pay for it. No intrinsic value whatsoever. Doesnt mean it doesnt have a purpose, just means you need to be a little sharper with your transactions/trades. Theres times when its got a valued place in ones investing/trading tool belt....IE against the backdrop of inflation...but also susceptible to piece of shit mode....be careful. My favorite bear argument is the "aids criminals" one. Cuz cash doesnt LOL!

Yea I think his presence on the board is consistent with the logic behind why they arent selling. He is this for personal, largely non financial reasons.

Does 50 bps over the next two years mean anything to anyone in the non WS trading world? The real economy? Total desperation move hoping to grab headlines and push back on a narrative. Calling bs.

If I was a FFH shareholder I'd be tempted to grab Prem by the ankles and shake him upside down asking repeatedly, "where's all our money" from the past decade's historic bull market.

Doesnt really matter how influential the country is IMO, as long as incremental users are added to the ecosystem. I wouldnt expect the US or a major old money establishment type regime to cede control. Imagine what kind of stimulus pickle they'd be in if we still had the gold standard or BTC type currency? How would they send poor people their stimmies? Frozen chicken packages? Gold plated coins? food vouchers funded by future tax credits? It would be hilarious. But the existing system is setup so they can retain control and influence and I agree they'll come up with something dumb, IE crypto funds terrorism or some stupid argument to ban it before they let it take over.

Trading sense wise, I actually think there's a case to be made that the worse sentiment gets the more likely $100k becomes. Sentiment just fuels the next move in the opposite direction. I mean this is still positive YTD dont forget. I already laid out my original trade, so no, not buying as theres other stuff more compelling to me here, but man this has been worth the price of admission.

Fed may try continuing to scare people out of the inflation trade, but you cant fight fate.

Its like one of those 0 gravity amusement park rides. Gets real fun when there's nothing supporting you!