Gregmal

Just my opinion but I believe the US is also quite culpable in this. There's always finger pointing involved, but the truth is its typically for show. The US and China were hardly in the dark on this. We hear tons about "China covering it up" but nothing about our own public servants and supposed watch dogs doing the same here. Or the scientists who inexplicably chose self interest out of fear of potentially losing funding or getting a bad rap...lots of things were exposed and supposed checks and balances failed the American people. The media should be a watchdog and it says something that a "tabloid" as many people call it, like Daily Mail or NY Post, were the only ones doing their job. Whereas, even on these very forums, you had tons of arrogant people sneering those publications while linking to crap like the NY Times and the like, or "scientific" journals and sites, which were all either actively deceiving everyone, or willfully negligent and complicit. I recall posts here to respected scientists who were publishing shit(or tweeting lol) basically saying the genome sequencing proves its impossible for this to have been lab originated....something we now know is just bogus interpretation of the "science"... Imagine how much less confusing and controversy there would have been if in February 2020 they had just been honest with people? Hey, a lab manipulated virus accidentally got out of a research lab...its been tinkered with to be highly contagious...here's what can be done to take precautions? LOL instead they all lied and scrambled and made it a political thing and forced people to focus on Trump sucks/Fauci is awesome/hoax/mask/no masks.....and then wonder why people are all over the place with this! Imagine if the "respected" journalists and firms had put in 1/10th the effort into getting to the bottom of this as they did stupid tabloid shit like tax returns and fear porn?

I think there is little doubt much of the administration and tentacles of government were aware. Why hold top secret task force meetings in January of 2020, mere weeks after word of this broke? One so informative that there was bipartisan support for massive repositioning of said members stock portfolios! I dont ever recall such measures, certainly not to the same extent, occurring for Ebola in 2014 or H1N1... But "Kung Flu" was a great example of this coverup. Same for the travel ban to China. Rather than actually looking into why these things were being said/done...they(media and politicians) just redirected the narrative and called it racism.

$20 CLF calls a few months out.

I just dont get what the point is of owning a shitco if you dont have an exit strategy. And I say this as someone who is all for flipping the worthless or overvalued sardine to a higher bidder. But buying these type of things and then locking into a long term illiquidity issue just seems hard to understand. I mean we might not expert FFH to pull off clever moves like Mudrick did the other day, but expecting some sort of exit lever to get pulled isnt crazy, is it?

https://nypost.com/2021/06/03/state-dept-staffers-were-warned-against-probing-covid-origin-report/ Pretty stunning. As is a ton of the other stuff now leaking out. Especially little liar Fauci who knew all along and was colluding with China. Granted, this is America and there is no accountability anymore....but I think there should be severe fines, loss of licenses, and repercussions for any politician, scientist, or media outlet that had a role is covering this up or keeping it under wraps. Everyone from FB and TWTR to guys like Fauci need to be held accountable. It was obvious from the beginning...my favorite was all the "its so contagious/highly transmissible" statements...Hmmmm, almost like it was designed to be!

Ultimately the problem with this whole situation, the missing variable that once fixed will allow shares to rerate significantly, is Prem. People use the "fat pitch" analogy a lot with investments. The issue with Prem, is that everyone is lining up and T-ing off on slow pitch softballs getting lobbed down the middle. They're hammering them with massive aluminum bats. Meanwhile, by choice, Prem is on the sidelines refusing to participate, because he's waiting for the guy who throws 100 mph and goes up there not with a bat but a broomstick handle. Except when he gets up there and swings, its not like his average is .400....its like .150. Stop trying to be special or cute and just get back to basics please. At that point FFH will become investable for me. Until then, its just so much less headache owning BAM(who seemingly never has any issue monetizing whatever type of invests they've made) or BRK which is just stubbornly patient but ultimately gets to where it needs to go.

Xerxes is on the money. You dont often get a second chance at something like what happened late January/early February. Prem has made some absolutely boneheaded investments...and it is also glaringly egregious to me that its becoming apparent that they dont even have an opportunistic exit strategy. His response to the above question says it all.....just oozes arrogance and condescension when really, the analyst/speaker is right. There is no way to spin BB as anything but a failure of an investment and getting this miracle gift from the market and sitting there pretending its the right move to do nothing exhibits that making money/maximizing value is not the primary objective anymore. FFH has a lot of very good things going for it right now, but its also important to learn from mistakes and not let some positive developments all of a sudden become deodorant for a decade long stench.

LOL yea maybe tone deaf a little. Figure at least on sites like this, amongst investors there s a higher standard for "everyday guy". Lets say you have just a mil. $2500 into something you're genuinely interested in. If that forces you into a crash course education on that type of investment...I'd say its entirely worth it even assuming you lose every penny. Knowledge is powerful when investing. Or so Ive found at least. Tricking yourself into buying that knowledge while also having an investment to go along with it is a cool little way Ive been able to significantly expand my comfort zone.

Well said. I try to look at 200-300 investments a week. If I dont own it, I won't be able to follow it. Frankly, the cost, assuming one even loses money(I've found more often than not you end up making money/breaking even, even if you had no idea what you're buying just cuz the market is bonkers) pays for itself when you incorporate the research and knowledge you've acquired through ownership. Between the filings, internet sleuthing, occasionally chatting with analysts, other shareholders or NEOs, looking at peers...you're likely getting more value for less than it would cost to outsource the work to a subscription service or hiring analysts. Of course I am assuming you are sizing starter positions appropriately...IE 25 bps or less...which for the average person is like $5-10k....which again, if you buy it, look into it, and dont like it....what maybe it went down 30%....like I said, a few grand which is easily worth the knowledge acquired in the process, which also compounds, the more stuff you look at, and makes you a better investor.

Oh yea, the hypocrisy is crazy but nothing new. Its hard not to at first get mad at it because it makes no sense and will ultimately lead to a worse situation than we have now. Then you think about it, and slightly more than half the country supports this utter nonsense which is even more amusing. But I think Kuppy hit the nail on the head when he says "my job is to examine the world and figure out how to profit off human stupidity. "...Which is how Ive tried to go about these things. Green energy and climate initiatives have NEVER made money(unless you bet against them). But they always become popular fire pits for other peoples money when we have a Democrat in office. The shitbag fee gatherers now see a tidal wave of money pouring into ESG, and as the blog post linked says, they see an opportunity for marketing and increasing AUM(and subsequently their fees)...they have no concern over performance, which will undoubtedly be terrible...and little concern for the money of others they are using. This is why institutional money is really the dumb money. These retards dump stocks because they get kicked from an index. They refuse to own sub $5 stocks. The sell spin offs because of genius logic like "its too small to move the needle" or it "doesnt fit into the portfolio"...They refuse to buy things that have hair or are "out of favor" and then dive in when its much higher.....but we've seen repeatedly this sort of theme play out and its a tremendous opportunity for the investor who is not bound by this bullshit or actually needs to make money with their investment dollars rather making money off the dollars they invest. Ill leave you with this: https://apnews.com/article/e098bc76b19743e7a1587b8681e4b6b3 Total fuckin retards many of these people and institutions are.....best way to deal with it is to leave your emotional baggage at the door and just profit off the stupidity of others. People can make it a red issue or a blue issue but Ive generally found that I like green better.

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/06/02/esg-energy-stops-growing/ The retards are creating a time bomb. This is so fascinating to watch and I reached similar conclusion as the above pondering this quite a bit over the weekend. Particularly the XOM vote implications. I know @SharperDingaan has touched on some of the ways to play it. Who else is playing this? Like some other themes, there's really not much that can realistically stop this from playing out. I'm hardly an energy expert so right now my exposure is largely through XOP, XLE both shares and LEAPS and well as some SLB options. What stops this? As is the case a lot of times, the key risk is selecting the wrong investment vehicle. But energy/oil more or less has to go higher over the next few years, at least until 2024.

I think Alico is great risk/reward. Gone nowhere for a decade. New management has done a solid job over the past few years. Its got a good enough(not great by any means) operating business with inflation protection via the Trop contract. And its nearing(if it hasn't already gotten there) a tipping point where HBU for most of land is sales to developers. One of your faves BAC I think is also reasonably priced and soundly positioned. Berkshire is good enough if you cant find anything else. APTS I really like but its a jungle of a mess navigating that one and enough to scare off most. FRP Holdings is a monster thats well managed and under leveraged. Good MF and the mother of all royalty assets. Its potentially got 1/4 of its EV in hidden assets as well. Kind of a no brainer(still even after run up) IMO. MSGE/S are both in excellent shape and cheap. S is safer E is more upside potential I am a horrible energy analyst but thats been beaten to hell and sentiment sucks so I just own XLE there but if one knows what they are doing there I think its fertile ground for hunting. CLF/MSB too long a story but CLF is outstandingly managed and now kind of in oligopoly territory after consolidation and MSB is purely a royalty company who gets checks from CLF as they own the best positioned IO mine in the US.

Select RE, Energy/commodities, and banks. Interestingly enough, many of these were cheap on absolute terms(and some still are), destined to do well regardless, and trade at discounts to NAV. Oh how glorious it is owning reasonably priced, well managed assets that trade at a discount going into an inflationary environment. Some are scared, I say, bring it!

I am not unconvinced that the end of a big cycle is near. Rates cant really go much lower, the fanboys around big tech are now value investors thinking AMZN is a no brainer after a 3000x run, and that PTON is worth $100B...energy is hated and has been for almost a decade now, commodities were beaten to death for a nearly similar stretch, housing was dormant for a decade following GFC(now things go up 10-20% in a year and the novices are screaming BUBBLE! much like broader stock market in 2013)...banks are massively under owned. If I ask myself what allows the current long term trend and popular shit to continue producing returns, I dont really have an answer other than maybe rates stay around here longer than a couple years...but even then, I think they underwhelm. But it seems apparent to me that the table is set for a new chapter in the boom and bust cycle story of the stock market. As I mentioned recently somewhere else, I think yin/yang or equal and opposite reaction type stuff happens often with the market...which if anything, would imply a very long, and brutal downturn cycle for the stuff thats been fawned over for the past decade.

Agree on phone carriers. I finally had to ditch my iPhone 5. Sprint and TMUS merged and as of Jan 2022 are shutting down old networks which means my beloved iPhone 5 won't work anymore. I absolutely detest the big retard sized phones, so by default had only one option, which was the iPhone 12 mini. Tough pill to swallow going from a phone I loved to one I still dont like and paying $750 vs $80 for it. But what am I gonna do? Well, anyway, the new phone has all these dumb features that I dont want or need, but one of them is unsolicitedly springing old pictures on me...attached below, inflation reminders indeed. Last March 22(2020) I got an 8.5 lb lobster. Dont know if I was celebrating the fact that I'd be more than tripling my net worth over the next 12 months or simply eating well in anticipation of the end of civilization as we knew it....but anyhow, now? That 8.5 pound monster which cost $64 in March 2020 is now $193, ON SALE! That said, you can still navigate prices at grocery stores but it is definitely more expensive and I agree with Castanza, its not like "oh shit, 4% increase!"...its generally 20-30% and in some cases much more. A 12 pack of Coke is now $7.99...WTF? Also attached was the menu at the Tex-Mex place I was eating at while reading the posts about restaurant price increases....everyone knows they can bump prices, whether its by necessity or not, its happening. If people are willing to pay it, I doubt they come back down for a while.

If one didnt rely on The NY Times or Wapo, Occam's razor would have lead to the most logical conclusion.... Get me a world map. Put a pin on where these type of virus research institutes are located Get a second world map. Put a pin where the first virus cases were reported. Draw a circle around the 100 mile radius. Overlap them now. Conclusion? Meanwhile some actually thought it came from a dirty food festival? If that were the case we'd have new pandemics every 6 months. Especially when NYC does their food truck festivals...Sometimes common sense is not the hard part, its finding the right lens to look through. Many people suffered from politically inspired bias.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html Hopefully more and more continues to bleed out. Remember all the whistleblowers in China in Jan/Feb who just went away? Remember the Chinese scientist chick who came over here around this time last year saying it was a coverup and the media scrubbed her and she just went away? Or the reports of an internal memo going around the Wuhan Institute mandating a complete security and procedural overhaul last February? Almost the same as new security features at a bank after a robbery? But when the government and media collude together to hide things from people, one has to accept that the truth is, very likely we will never get the full or true story. But all signs point to a massive government coverup here. Both with respect to China, and also most likely the US being complicit; after all they happened to be funding this lab. The behavior in the beginning was very telling. The US politicians held an emergency meeting a couple weeks into January, a mere 2 weeks after the first cases were reported in China? The lockdowns in China after like 3 weeks? We'd previously seen random outbreaks like Ebola and some others and never was the response like this one. Tell tale behavior of people who know more than they're letting on. Meanwhile, the average fool goes to The NY Times and says "thats the truth, they're credible!"...and it goes away just like the powers that be want. A reminder to all to always think for yourselves. There's a saying when investing that the more certainty/data one needs to invest, the higher the price they pay and the lower the subsequent returns. Great investors connect a few facts with a bunch of speculation and circumstantial data and arrive in the correct place. Obviously not everyone has this skill, but self awareness makes it somewhat easier. You had everything you needed here 3-4 months into this "pandemic".

Everyone and everything is telling you there is inflation. After years of the Fed trying to create it, its been done. It may be temporary, it may not be..I dont know. But the really simple question is, if you can make investments today that do well, in some cases REALLY WELL, with or without inflation, why wouldnt you? Perhaps I'm being naive, but this seems like an easy situation to navigate.

Eh 2-3 year "winters" to accumulate while out of favor to sell at 5-10x higher prices when its in favor seem like a reasonable IRR...not that this is what I am forecasting, but if you remain bullish on this thats probably what you want to see.

Eh I posted this in a private chat on the subject so its somewhat edited to remove detail but basically... A good friend of mine grew up with (well known allocator)...(allocators name) has even said on numerous occasions the key to building (his firm) and ultimately being a successful feeder/allocator is basically just kissing ass. Hob knobbing. Throwing events that popular people go to. I dont think performance is anywhere near the top of the list for many of these guys. They basically just need to avoid someone who blows up in a big way but is otherwise boring and vanilla and won't make them look bad. Most dont seem to understand the absurdity of the system, particularly someone like Wyatt who seems focused on the only thing that should matter which is performance. Adam is probably better off just doing his own thing and not kissing the ring. He obviously doesnt need these guys, let alone putting up with their arrogant, entitled, I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine nonsense that comes with taking their money. It's awesome seeing someone like him, who lacks the typical establishment "polish" kicking ass and taking names.

Didnt see his rant, what was it? I do an incredibly poor job of following Twitter, mainly because I dont have an account nor a desire to get one. This guy has quietly been money for a while though. Glad he's getting his day(assuming he wants it).

Bought some CASH for a quick swing trade. Looks primed for a breakout. Also bought some NKLA puts.

I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.

I kind of agree with Xerxes. Getting it "right" after 5-10 years of sitting on big losses isnt getting it right in my book. A good friend once said to me(this is a high level exec at a small cap company, not a market wizard) "everyones right in the stock market if you hold long enough"...The goal is to maximize IRR. Given they got a mulligan here, take it and run and hope to move on to something else that maybe they do a better job with. I mean they already had a huge whiff on BB. Dont make the same mistake twice.

It also, if you want to take a bit of a leap in terms of logic, explains why they were able to come up with a vaccine so quickly, and also probably is marginally positive in terms of deducing that the vaccine is safe. There's also probably something to be said of the rumor that China had a vaccine going out in March of last year. And mysteriously their cases all but stopped. There's so much to this that deserves exploration, but they've all moved on cuz they used it to get what they wanted and now that they have its in their interest to change the subject.