Gregmal

I don't disagree, but I think that there's just so much to learn form this whole thing, and it doesnt seem like the majority of people learned anything. In fact I'd say they proved themselves to be dumber or more gullible than I could have imagined. There's always known and unknown variables out there that need to be underwritten into ones projections/models. Willfully ignoring them is dangerous. We cant spend the entire summer and fall fear mongering about the safety of the vaccine, and then all of a sudden turn around and tell everyone "oh its safe"...and then ridicule people for being skeptical. We cant allow people to purposely peddle a false narrative, refuse to investigate other theories, and then when they're wrong, just move on to the next story. The biggest expose in all of this was the unreliability of government officials, experts, and media. Their willingness to lie, harness something like this for personal gain/attention, and then just change the story and tell everyone to move on. Its horrendous.

Added some Z, BIDU, VIX calls, PTON puts, SPCE puts

Eh there was more than enough there to at least investigate, even from the onset. Instead, it was actively covered up and purposely not pursued. Even worse, it was deliberately emphasized that people should be discouraged from pursuing the Wuhan lab leak theory by many. And now it looks like the cover has been blown off and they're being exposed...but we won't even get a mea culpa or apology from these scumbags...they'll just move on to the next narrative they want to push and the only hope is that there's enough people out there who arent brainless enough to fall for it again. I mean event tangentially, I know Asian hate crimes are now a hot topic(finally), did it help or hurt that the media spent the first 12 months of this thing peddling the narrative that this originated because a bunch of Chinese people were eating bats or some shit at a dirty flea market? When in reality it was likely something that escaped from a lab that the US was funding....imagine that?

https://nypost.com/2021/05/26/fauci-facing-gop-calls-for-resignation-amid-wuhan-lab-controversy/ This is actually quite breathtaking. No, not another Fauci flip flop, but the fact that once again we have a scenario where some folks said it was likely lab leaked early on. What happened? They were disparaged, ridiculed, called conspiracy theory nuts, and even censored and silenced by the elitist scumbags. Now...turns out they were probably right, again. What do we know though? Follow the science right?

Its funny but I always think of 3 things when I see LearningMachine post. Interest rates, stock compensation, management shenanigans. 3 super important things and it often seems like 95% of the posts on this site concerning those subjects, are his. Keep it up. Also reminds me of the Big Short scene where the rabbi is freaking out because "he's trying to find inconsistencies in the word of God!"...

BIDU

If rates go to 6 and all else remains equal, probably, yea that causes some hiccups. But thats generally not the case and rates move up as other variables follow. You'd probably have significant wage increases for one which negates much of the 1-4 scenarios. A bigger interest payment is not really that big of a deal. Two, you have so many people still currently on the sidelines, that FOMO and BTFD will come into effect. Next leg of things is decreased regulation/lending requirements, which is the only way to make housing attainable for more people.

100%. The deception is staggering and makes the mortgage docs that led up to GFC look tame. Why is whats in the paperwork they force you to sign(on the spot, very little time to read) so much different in narrative than what they're shouting from the rooftops, blasting on the radio waves, and holding celebrity endorsed concerts for? If they are this certain, why won't they let you hold them accountable if anything goes wrong?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-governor-apologizes-apparent-social-074341180.html Rules for thee, but not for me. To quote scumbag, "Yesterday, I went with friends to a local restaurant. As more people arrived, the tables were pushed together. Because we were all vaccinated, we didn't stop to think about it", the governor said. Perhaps its time to stop "thinking about it" and just use common sense. Even sheeple can do it.

Ive seen similar around me but it just leads to massive price increases. Same as all the concern with sporting events, concerts, theme parks, etc...covid and the restrictions plus follow on effects of all that just created a very easy path to returning and having huge pricing power due to demand characteristics. If people will put in new floors or do additions to their homes when lumber is up 4x from a year ago, they'll pay 50% more for a concert ticket or 30% more for Tex-Mex or Italian food. What triggers people to become price sensitive again is what I am looking at. Even as people re-enter the workforce, many of these people are low intellect/skill types. Otherwise they're not collecting benefits. It may create a downward pressure on certain job associated wages, but it most likely won't lead to price decreases to the consumer. Its supply and demand to a degree but once businesses get you willing to pay something they never really relinquish it, especially in todays day and age where industry dominance is very much consolidated. Where I lean right now is that you're going to have fast inflation/low rates for a bit, then rates will have to kick up, but again, not crazy high...so maybe 3-5%...and then modest inflation. Some stuff will do better than others obviously. And no, I dont think 6% mortgages kill housing demand, at all.

Yea I dont think we get a melt down of any grand proportion. For one thing, theres just too much liquidity in the system. Its why ARKK and non FANG tech crap is just kind of slowly deflating rather than crashing. But this also feels different. Not in the sense of "this time its different" but in the sense that while there is definitely speculative excess and exuberance in some places...it seems more isolated. Crypto can go to hell(interestingly I think crypto has minted more poor and middle class wealth than anyone wants to admit), tech euphoria can burst....but in terms of every day life and all that...I think people are doing "well" finally. I dont see many people with multiple spec houses or 500 FICOs taking out SI IO mortgages...In a strange way it almost kind of seems like things are in a good spot. There's always hand to mouth types and of course when housing is hot there's dipshit mortgage guys/agents/contractors flaunting wealth. But I think we currently have a very high standard of living here in the states. And I kind of think its sustainable in the sense that labor market's supply/demand imbalance are going to start really rewarding people. Housing will continue rewarding people. Infrastructure spending will help people. There will be ups and down and like I mentioned the post before, we clearly arent at the bottom of the cycle anymore....so be cautious as always...but it also seems like there's some pretty good tailwinds in certain places.

So just from an observational standpoint, things are pretty interesting right now. Inflation is definitely here. Costs are soaring...but I am also not noticing anybody except financial people being bothered by it. Was with the kids and in laws out on the lake this weekend, and a few big observations.... First, WHOA, if you have a longer term approach, cycles are very easy to see happening. When I moved to the area I live, I bought my first boat in 2014 and no one wanted boats and the lake was crowded(most popular lake in NJ) but not crazy. Even now, we're still basically in early preseason, everyone has a boat, marinas are packed, midday on the lake on a weekend is a nightmare. In favor...Out of favor. I ve had the same thought over time in a lot of other areas. Sometimes on a short sighted basis, its hard to discern where we are in the grand scheme of things, but when you step back I think its really easy. Another point of caution as far as the markets go. Despite lumber costs soaring, building is booming. All over the lake and surrounding areas you have additions being done, new houses replacing old ones....if increases, and big freakin increases is hurting people...I just dont see it. Everyone is doing well. The "big truck douchebag index" is at a high I havent seen in maybe 15 years. Also soaring is the "moneyed up meathead with gold chain, barbed wire tattoo, LVMH/Gucci attire, leased Cadillac or Maserati index"....If whats going on right now isnt hurting people....what needs to change? While I agree stimulus is playing a role, its not buying boats or new cars(that I know of)...yes financing is key, but thats been there for a while. If the Fed budges things 1-2%, is that really hurting people? Frankly I'd rather have a 2.5% 10 yr than $10 for a pressure treated 2x4.

Pretty staggering. Who wants to deal with this mess? Answer....probably not many, and fewer and fewer. Come to Miami and Dallas people and business, they actually want you.

Haha yea much of that is true. I would also point out that more often than not the people complaining about quality of posts often bring very little of anything, let alone quality, to the table themselves. For a while a few months ago I recall a few people who rarely posted anything, and when they did it was just politics, making this claim. Basically freeloaders wanting more free shit lol. I find the site a great collective resource much like Spek stated. Same goes for people who complain that they dont find it useful for new ideas or dont find anything actionable/worthwhile....HUH?!?! Just in the past bit I can recall, you have shit ranging from wabuffo's masterful walkthrough on Garret Motion bankruptcy, to 150 bagger Enphase, or even boring shit like pupil and I talk about on AIV or JBGS.... people really cant find anything useful??? They're either full of it, lazy, or intellectually challenged. Even lately where the market has been fickle and ideas sparse, theres multiple ways to skin a cat. Ive been shorting PSTH puts for Aug/Sept. Its not sexy or going to be huge money, but 1.5-2.5% against the $20 liquidation inside of a few months is an OK IRR, better than nothing and pretty risk free. Its likely free cash because a deal probably doesnt close by then even if you announce Monday, or worst case you owns Bill's grand idea at a discount to IPO....You just have to look and not be lazy/scared. Understand that the market and ideas dont just fall into your lap on a platter and if you need to be in your comfort zone all the time you're going to underperform. If people want to complain about quality while freeloading themselves...who cares about people like that? If they cant find useful ideas or anything actionable in a literal sea of money being made...again, why is that anyone else's problem? If they're lazy, well start putting in the work. If they're bad investors or simply too risk averse for the market....well there's Cds and savings accounts....dont know what else to say.

Been shorting a few PSTH Aug and Sept $20 puts.

Yea the same shit regarding a crypto bear case basically gets regurgitated every time there's a pullback. Nothing new. Its what makes a market.

Eh, personally I am pretty against seeking/being compensated for participation or content. I also agree with you and chuckle on the "10 year old book report" stuff. Sometimes thats all thats necessary. WS/finance people love sophisticated and complicated, detail oriented presentations, spreadsheets, and all that useless junk. Personally Ive found that quite often a 1-ft hurdle or really good investment is simple and easy to see. If you look at a lot of different stuff, you need to be able to filter it and take short cuts. So even then, you dont have to be precise...if something is trading at 65 and the focus is whether its worth 88, 96, 99, or 107, does it really matter the exact value or is "roughly 30-50% upside" all you need to know? Getting information out there and prompting conversation is what gets things moving and why places like this are great. If people want to get super granular, they can, thats fine too. If others dont have the time, that fine as well. If people think their thoughts are "too valuable" to waste here, who cares, fuck em. And if you really need the money, get a better full time job lol.

Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash.

I would think in theory the Grayscales should all trade at discounts. And that the discount should increase as more products or similar nature become available to investors.

Thats definitely accurate if this plays out, however I personally dont have what I'd call a high conviction opinion on the probability of that. This run up was highly predictable. Where it ends, or if it ends, I dont know so the process really is about allocation wisely and managing the risk. Even something like XRP....I bought a tiny spec position the weeks and days leading into the delisting(or whatever its called for this crap) at the major exchanges. The thesis was simple. 1) The SEC case was either nonsense or would get settled favorably. The SEC doesnt kill companies. 2) I think XRP is worthless crap 3) I could be wrong about #2 4) 2 or 3 won't matter in terms of the timeline for the trade Ultimately it was easy for me to have higher conviction in 1,3, and 4 than I did in 2. Even after the big crash XRP has gone from 30c to 1.25 in a few months on favorable developments in the case and we have yet to see a verdict in the case and reinstatement of widely accessible trading. But the process was easy and the same was the setup just with different variables for the BTC run following 2017. Easy. Which is why I just think people who sit around devoting tons of time to bashing this or criticizing something without putting any skin in the game are fools. Theyre almost intentionally passing up free money. I am not a huge believer in crypto and Ive managed to cash out nearly 2x my initial investment and still have about 4x times the initial investment freely riding. You've managed to pay off what? Like 3 mortgages lol? Where it ends, who know? But it'll be fun nonetheless. As always, managing risk and position sizing is probably the most important element when putting money to work. But that won't stop plenty of people from sitting around whining and harping on the wrong stuff.

If you are into biotech, the Baker Brothers are probably as solid a starting point as you'll get.

I dont think you want to be a dip buyer. 1) It could be a bubble or whatever...who knows? If it is, this very well could have been the peak, there were a lot of markers that point to it. My theory was that 2017 retail was retail driven, then next boom would be corporate/institutional. Who is left? 2) Wait at least until there is stabilization and its not on the front page everywhere. Buy tiny amounts over a stretched period of time. 3) Since there is no real value here, only way to trade it on a price basis is probably irrelevantly significant numbers/technicals..IE Its YTD starting point ~$28k, previously breakout point ~$20k. Other than that no number means anything really. This moves hard in both directions.

Man's weakness has always been pussy. Dudes with money just have an easier time getting it. I dont know that this makes Gates a bad person.

added a bit more JOE

Here's another interesting story. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/eric-clapton-blames-propaganda-disastrous-212342775.html And I totally agree. Its almost sickening turning on anything from Bloomberg radio, to z100, and constantly being bombarded with pro vaccine propaganda. Seeing places like Facebook literally ban anyone from questioning the vaccine or removing people who post things like "my body, my rights" in relation to the shot, after having no problem with the phrase for ages. Force fed only one side of things...definitely not the democratic or respectful way to go about it. I have gotten the vaccine myself, but constantly hearing this sort of crap makes me completely understand and even sympathetic to people who are skeptical. Forcing views or jamming things down peoples throats just creates the opposite reaction. A classic, stupid government move. Better plan for vaccinations would be to encourage companies/employers to peddle them. Seeing the government targeting, big tech censoring, and campaigning like this is almost Orwellian.