Spekulatius

About sums it up

No, some companies are doing very well. SAP and Siemens have their headquarter in Germany, but they are international and do business around the world. Same as the Mag7.

@Viking Her 12-18 month estimates directionally correct. Any competitor will need to build anew plant (greenfield or brownfield ) to produce these parts I quantities.It is not like aus suppliers have huge spare capacity. now this problem is multiplied by having those tariffs on Mexico as well l so there is going to be lots of inquiries coming in that are possible to meet. Then, if you are an US supplier thinking about adding those low margin products, you need to think about how attractive this business is l getting a reversal of polices (rug pull) as Trump changes his mind etc. There is no quick solution, stuff is going to get more expensive. I also don’t see people lining up for these jobs, it not like these jobs are paying that well. Inhaber seen tech quitting for running cashier jobs in supermarkets because the pay wasn’t that different and the job is easier. We also have already and engineering talent shortage in the US.

Companies like Linamar will be hit hard. The auto supply business has <10% EBIt margins, so they can’t rats the price. The customer will have to pay more or not get parts. How quickly can you get an alternative supplier in the US to deliver a few million of those after an RFQ? I am not in auto but lead times for all sorts of things have just mushroomed since about the pandemic and never went back. Some stuff that had 6 week lead times are now 26 weeks. There is no spare capacity sitting around anywhere. Will be interesting to see. In the short terms (<6month) I think customer have to eat the cost increase, I think.

Since this an investment forum, I think the markets are going to sh$t a brick on Monday, In Canada, the US and the EU and Mexico. I think Mr Market has greatly underestimated the damage these tariffs will do. A lot of earnings estimates are going to be revised down and it just the start of the year.

Here are stats on the US Canada trade balance: https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.canada-and-us-economics-.canada-and-us-decks.trade-stats--january-31--2025-.html#:~:text=Energy accounted for 30% of,US goods imports from Canada. Total trade is between the two is 600B CAD and trade deficit is ~41B cad so only 7% of the total. Furthermore, if you exclude energy, then the balance of good and services between CA and the US is actually negative for Canada, meaning that Canada imports more than it exports ex energy.

Tough times in high end liquor (cognac) in this case: https://www.remy-cointreau.com/app/uploads/2025/01/Remy-Cointreau-Presentation-CA-T3-24-25.pdf I have a starter in this (bag holder so far) and don’t see this going anywhere yet. I also expect tariffs sooner than later.

Germany mag 7 are the mag 2 stocks SAP and Siemens. Banks also have been doing well.

Why haven’t elections been moved ahead like in Germany? It’s not a great time to run rudderless when your 10x larger neighbor bullies you.

Carry trades have wiped out many traders. also, the yen is so cheap and they also will raise interest rates albeit slowly. If the interest differential between the USD and the yen falls, the yen should go up against the USD.

I think what’s Canada specifically needs to do is, push ahead with NAFTA ex US and conclude a free trade zone with the Mexico, EU and the UK and perhaps others like Australia that want to participate. I think the EU is open to it and adding Canada energy resources ought to be welcome additions to the EU free trade zone. That assumes that some of the climate change goals or the way they are implement need to be revised. However, even without the energy part, a free trade agreement between and Canada/Mexico will be beneficial. Canada needs to develop the infrastructure to export to both the east and west coast where it is needed - the equivalent of the Trans Canada highway but with pipes, harbor facilities. This could actually quite become a real transformative infrastructure project for Canada. yes, it will take years to undo the US tries, it all the more reason to start sooner rather than later imo. It takes a political with some vision to execute though. What do I know, I am not a Canadian, but if I were, that’s what I would do or at least vote for. Doesn’t even matter if Trump goes ahead with the tariffs or pulls the rug last minute. This ought to be a wake up call that too much dependency is never a good thing.

Tariffs are a consumption tax and essentially degressive. It means the rich will pay less and the middle class and lower income will pay more. so yes, change in the tax system is one way to look at it. the whole thing had nothing to do with fentanyl or emigration because he want to tax Europe and Taiwan, so this just a pretense. It is clear to me that based on what Trump states, he wants to balance the US trade with goods.Tariffs are a means to reduce imports. The problem is that it’s actually very hard to reduce all these goods in the US, there is lack of labor force and high costs. So it’s inflationary for sure. The other issue is that it is impossible to have a reserve currency and have a balance trade. the reason is simple, for a currency to work as a reserve currency other counties need to have a net balance of the reserve currency or you can’t store or trade it. If the USD is not going to be a reserve currently, the value compared to other currency needs to decline, there is no way around it. That also helps with balance if the trade of goods. There are also other consequence like less foreign investments in the US and a diminished status and influence on the world stage. It’s not really Amerika first, it’s more like Amerika going it alone.

Intel is vulnerable because they have a large export business, which would be impacted by retaliatory tariffs. They also import a lot of inputs for production - wafers, consumables equipment etc. Those are subject to tariffs as well. So it’s not that simple. A manufacturer in Japan or Taiwan (AMD) will have a much easier time to sell chips in Europe or pretty much anywhere but the USA if this plays out the way I think it will.

It’s pretty clear there are going to be tariffs on everything - Mexico, Canada, EU, computer chips- you name it.

Hipsters disappearing is news to me.

Knowing what I own (to some extent) helps me stay invested.

Flexing quite a bit here:

Same with spinoffs. About 80% start to sink post spinoff days. I think IPO’s and spinoffs sink for good reasons but eventually it gets overdone.

Interactive Brokers.

LKQ has much less organic growth . APR does not have much FCF as they reinvest in growth and consume a lot of working capital. They are not in the Autozone operating model yet LKQ is a different business but looks pretty good on a first glance. I will check it out - thanks for sharing.

Added to APR.W - a polish automobile part wholesaler. Had some shares in another account since 2022 and it looks like it’s a good time to add. Growth has slowed and margin took a hit from minimum wage increases, so I am betting on normalization here. There is some older VIC write up and also a letter from Asheville capital if interested in digging in.

Sold remaining shares in BABA at a satisfactory return.

Which means the Chinese will do very well. In any case, having an LLM model by itself isn’t a moat, even if it’s the best one currently. That much is clear.

Actually, you can’t. The US has no law governing the use of data. It’s is one of the few countries with out comprehensive data regulation.

I think it’s approaching fair value. The 7.5% dividend is nice, but it’s not growing much. The volume losers continue. that said, ai would happily buy this again in the low thirties. Have gotten two good trips out of it