Spekulatius

That’s sleazebag was Armand Hammer. I don’t think having a position in the Permian protects you from inflation though- again because depletion is relatively fast, which means you are exposed to rising input costs. The Permian is just the best reservoir in the US, close to existing infrastructure and in one of the most business friendly states in the US (at least the part in Texas). Oil sands are better in that regard because once build, they require only maintenance capital for about 20 years, but even those are subject to rising costs to some extend.

I thought about this over a can of cider last night and I think it makes sense that this is T or T (or both). The size is 60m shares * $68 or roughly $4B. I think this is doable for T&T. Maybe both bought it who knows. it's similar to the CVX trade where Berkshire filed a buy in late 2020 and then shares were sold a quarter later. The whale buys came later and due to size are unquestionable Buffetts. I think these swingtrades are T&T not Buffett. They seem to do those quite in size.

The forever chemical lawsuit looks a bit like asbestos to me. Berkshire would not buy a business with open ended liabilities like this because this is the sort of thing that could bring the entire company down. The combat earplug lawsuit is likely is expensive but manageable.

I am in the US and have a fixed mortgage, but my cost of homeownership still goes up by 4-5%. The reason is power (up ~25%) and NG is getting more expensive as well as real estate taxes keep creeping up. The inflation looks like whack a mole to me. OK, fuel is down, used cars are down yoY, but now used car prices seem to rise again. Energy (except fuel) is getting way more expensive. So you have these rolling inflation waves hitting you at different times but overall it looks like there is some persistency there. Or does anyone really thinks that rents for example will start to shrink? Rents tend to be sticky. I see this at work too - the company I work for still tries to push down price increases - roughly 5-7% now. There is more pushback than last year. Some of the crazy input cost spikes for some materials are gone, but there is just a wave of overall input price increases as far as I can tell. All those price increases used to be 0-2% ballpark until about 2020 when hell broke loose.

Nothing to see here, carry on. Some of the best and considered most “durable” business are a race to the bottom- trash collection and railroads are examples. The Waste Management trucks look like they come straight from Mad Max movies. Same with some trains that look like the “War Rig” from “Fury Road”. You can’t argue with the results though, can you?

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

Most plans don't have a brokerage window due to compliance concerns (the concern is that participants may blow up their account and then sue the sponsor).

A starter in LSXMK

Try your library. the Boston library gives you online access for example. I personally would use tikr.com because it is much quicker.

From Woosh! -Surprisingly good record from Deep purple:

$250K for a nice buildable lot on the lake doesn't sound that steep. I have seen lakeside lots trading for more in the southern NH boonies and the climate is much more agreeable in NC. I don't think the bottom is in for those.

Selling a bit more $JXN

I would make the argument that the cyclical nature of their FCF makes energy companies poor candidates to buy back stock to begin with. They should be thinking about replacing buybacks with special dividends - the way PBR is doing it. Even with the tax leakage, the results may be better overall. Energy companies absolutely need to keep investing when energy prices are low. If they stop, the whole organization gets hollowed out (the skills to run exploration and development will wane) and it is also cheaper to develop resources when prices are low rather than when prices are high and everyone else is rushing in.

A hard landing - however that is defined- is never good for banks. Results will depend on exactly how hard and what exactly comes down, but it generally means consumer stress (CC and car loans defaults) as well as commercial real estate defaults and spreads blowing out. For a real hard landing, the annual stress test results give you an idea what a 2008 GFC like scenario looks like. It's not pretty but the major banks would survive. That said, you don't want to own banks in this scenario. I consider such a hard landing very unlikely however.

Yes, when you have a 401k, then your option are limited. Often the only options aren't even index funds, they have higher cost funds. over time this has improved, but even large companies have surprisingly crappy options. I have talked with several benefit managers about this - they could easily do better, but they don't care - all they care is compliance. If you think about it in this way, less options mean compliance becomes easier for them. brokerage window - oh now - possible compliance leak - don't want this. Even with index vs higher cost funds - as long as it's not grossly negligent - they don't care. I also think there is some sort of kickback scheme at work where higher cost funds are pushed in exchange for reducing the administrative cost for the sponsor company.

I thought he was in the money with TSM. So he pays taxes rather than saving them.

I think the value of this thread could be to create a framework what to invest in rather than buy or sell everything. I mentioned banks here before, because I believe they would benefit from the higher rate for longer framework 9after getting dinged in a pot. recession). maybe European banks become investible as Europe goes from a negative interest regime (which is toxic to banks) to a couple percent risk free rates Energy could be one of the drivers of inflation for some time, so it may make some sense to put some money in energy related securities. Maybe a higher bond / or MM allocation makes sense for some people. Those are much more interest questions than where the SP500 might go and when or buy or sell everything right now because XXX may happen.

TSM is the biggest headscratcher. He is also getting out of the ATVI arbitrage it seems. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc

Looks like another escalation from Putin - meddling in Moldova potentially. Of course Putin will deny this - just like he denied the “Green men” in Crimea 2014 were Russian mercenaries :

$EEM is for rookies because the fees are too high. $VWO from Vanguard is roughly equivalent and much cheaper (0.08% vs 0.68% fees). This 0.6% fee differential does add up:

Higher for longer is good for banks. Solid deposit franchises will generate sustainably higher NIM in an environment with bonds at 4-5% than they did with ZIRP. I don't think it's priced in bank stocks for the most part. A soft landing shouldn't be that much of a problem on the credit risk side. That's directly actionable, not just macro chitchat.

I think the bond market can forget about H2 2023 rate cuts. This will become obvious over the next few month.

This documentary is pretty good, not just the part with Bolton.

I sort of went a little but down a Frank Zappa trip and really started to dig it. Zappa was what the Inteligentsia was listening to in the late 70‘s and I never really understood what it’s about. I did watch a documentary about him and then it became clear to me that he is more of a composer than a R&R musician. I like the mid 70‘s period the most - Aprostrophe, Overnite Sensation, One size fits all, Hot rats… Or the greatest album title ever “Sheik Yerbouti” (especially considering it was released in 1979).

I don’t think he would at this point. He only knowingly went into asbestos when the extend of liabilities were better known after Manville went through bankruptcy. The same could happen with 3M. I personally would not touch 3M stock with a 10 foot pole at this point.