Spekulatius

What has WW2 to do with this? It’s probably more interesting to envision what would have happened if Trump would had been elected president in 1936 or 1940. I think the world would look unrecognizable compared to now.

Yes, indeed this worth watching. He literally says that the shit is starting to hit the fan and there is no Trump put.

Reduced $BNR.DE and $BTI

The tariffs for Canadian energy exports stay. Also the tariffs for USMCA covered goods are only delayed for a month. More drama to follow. I think in the end, the tariffs will be put in place. Great stock market for traders.

I posted a Tikr cannibal screen upthread.

It is still noteworthy what AJG paid because just ~1.5 years ago, they mentioned they plan to pay 10-11x EBITDA for acquisitions. So there is valuation creep going on. Maybe they meant small bolt ons, because larger acquisitions for sure aren’t available at these 10-11 x multiples.

Reduced $DHLGY and sold a bit more $BTI

Yeap his goals are to get a spot on Mt Rushmore ( for expanding America by annexing Greenland) and the Peace Nobel price for bringing “peace” to Gaza and Ukraine.

At least Europe moving in the right direction, the direction that the US is taking under Trump is downward scary. I think for equity markets it means that the US valuation premium will diminish. The US markets still has the best business but that only explains part of the valuation difference. There is a clear premium for US stocks right now compared to likewise foreign stocks (as is evident when business relist in the US) and this premium will be smaller going forward, imo.

I also bought GOOGL recently and PAX. PAX should go bonkers is SA does a bit better but it’s cheap enough for some shares anyways.

Trudeau is actually doing better in the polls now. Nothing better for popularity of a politician than dealing with an external threat.

He is trying everything to get something from the US to help fight the Russians. If it turns out that it’s not working he will have to work with the European only. It is probably a waste of time to make deals with Trump but he has to try. That’s how I see it.

Well that’s does not exactly sounds like it will save money either. Would be interesting to know how much each person brings in versus what they cost. DOGE shouldn’t have this number and if they don’t how do they decide to fire them?

You don’t well these issues combing databases , especially if you don’t understand how they are operated which the DOGE team clearly does not. Got to get boots on the ground but that is not what has been happening . I also wonder what’s is up with all those IRS firings during tax season.

Employing veterans is a DEI program too isn’t it? $CACI and $HII are having a good day

Well @Luke said this can’t be done and he lives there.

The Mag7 is a bit tied to US being a dominant force in politics. Same with US banks and the USD. In any case, trading economic influence with Russia for influence in Europe looks like a bad trade to me.

Seriously, the 25% US tariffs are a more significant regulation than anything the EU came ever up with. Then we have DOGE austerity and dismantling of state agencies which remains to be seen what impact it will have. Doesn’t exactly sound like the US stock market deserves a huge safe heaven premium to me. It all boils down to earnings growth in the end.

DAX up ~3.5% today and the rest of Europe doesn’t look to bad either. Also @Dalal.Holdings went hiding . I don’t know if Europe is investable but the stocks make money while the US markets are a shitshow. Go figure.

C-17 can land and start at any large airports. They need friendly sky’s all along their flight path or they will get shot down too. Do you think that the Starships will be a land to land on Airports. how bout protecting their flight path. Also they are a one way ticket, they can’t start again, without a lot of launch infrastructure. 100 tons isn’t exactly a lot of material either, that’s 2 tanks plus supplies. Look, I like SciFi too, but that’s doesn’t make any sense. That pic is so cringeworthy, like a 60’s pulp fiction piece.

What a nonsense. This thing would be a sitting duck going down, A tiny guided missile would shoot it out of the sky when it’s going down to land leading s spectacular explosion . Sure there are military uses for SpaceX but it’s about launching satellites into space not moving troops on earth.

Accepting Trump peace deal is probably similar to unconditional surrender, that’s the issue. The USA has taken the same position than Russia and that’s basically that Ukraine is “ little Russia” and belongs to them.

If Trump really wants out of the international arena why is he involved in a peace deal in Ukraine that nobody but Russia wants (because he sides with them), makes a move on Greenland and plans to create a Las Vegas Trump resort in Gaza? This doesn’t look like a focus on domestic policies to me. The thing is that Trump doesn’t want out, he can’t stand not being in the center of attention and thinks that everyone has to dance to his fiddle even if he stops putting anything in. In the meantime he is moving towards to make America an old fashioned 19th century Imperialist power which will manifest itself likely in a move on Greenland next. It would not be too surprised if little green men show up there and they won’t be from Russia.

Sold my one tracking share of LICT and reduced NNI a bit.

Why do you think it’s top of the cycle? It trades at its lowest valuation since 2015 and is in a much better position since the situation around the dam disasters is now getting settled slowly. A lot of tail has been removed with the legal settlements. The shares have declined much more than the iron ore prices suggest. I bought some shares recently and I think I will add some more. The business is well run, won’t go anywhere and they are one of the lowest cost producers on the world.