Spekulatius

Besides cyber warfare, I struggle to see many. The auto pilots for planes , ships etc are a different form of AI, I think.

They must have played some misinformation. They are in my Apple Music Library and I follow them on the bird app for concert updates. Never could make it work to see them Live unfortunately.

DropkickMurphys. This screenshot would make a great new album cover:

I think his biggest business success was Truth social and selling crypto Trump coin to his fan base.

I don’t like Trump but don’t mind the Trump stock market at all. Trump is making volatility great again! Yeehah!

Trading more with the EU send such a natural fit for Canada. The EU needs Canada’s energy, resources, Aluminum, Nickel and other resources like rare earth. I am pretty sure a trade association with the EU will be easier to do than with tariff trigger happy Trump. It can’t replace the US bound trade but reduce the dependency over time. If you have a long way to go, you better start moving ASAP.

Yes, that is correct. It is also clear that the emergency power is now more and more abused and it didn’t start with Trump. I think we have more than 40 emergency power edicts in place compared with 2 during WW2 and one during the Korean War. They seem to be a way to eliminate checks and balances and undermine the spirit of the constitution.

Most of those tech reviewers are just social influencers . If you see it under this framework, it makes total sense what they are doing.

The problem is the Tariffs are coming anyways because Trump believes in them. They have nothing to do with NATO, fentanyl or what not. Look at the trade balance another way - Canada supplies valuable goods, materials and energy to the US for little green pieces of paper that the US prints in abandon. The US should be grateful. I think at this point, the MAGA economics just need to play out. Either the tariffs work or they do not the way MAGA thinks they do. It will be an interesting economic experiment but maybe losing less is winning?

I said this before, manufacturing jobs don’t pay that well any more and service jobs have closed to the gap since COVID-19. It’s going to be hard to bring these jobs back because people won’t take them, at least not those that are qualified.

The Russian strategy is likely to cause diversion /subversion in Europe and then test a weak spot, which will likely be a smaller country like Baltics Moldova or if divided enough even Hungary or Romania. I personally think that European troops need to get involved in Ukraine itself. Bettet to make a stand early than late. Putin can keep his North Korean. As Michael Clark stated, when has appeasing to a voracious dictator ever worked in the last 3000 years? Short of the problem going away by Putin dying (natural or otherwise ) and a more moderate leader emerging (not a sure thing), I don’t think it will work in this case either. I think this is starting to sink in with Europeans or at least some people I know who live in Germany but others are oblivious.

Michael Clark is always worth watching: He think that a confrontation between western Europe and Russia is very likely in the next 5 years and the Western Europeans to decide to where to dig in - now or later. Other interesting comments about Trump as well.

These 100 year bonds would make great trading sardines for bets on interest rates an a lesser extend US default risk. If these deal in deed happens , I hope they would be traded like regular treasuries.

I have yet to see Elon in a suit too. He wears his Anthrazit badass outfit with a black baseball cap and sunglasses. It’s bring your son to work day every day as well. The White House has become way more casual than my workplace.

However you think about this particular plan, the tariffs etc, but it seems that the US moves away from a free capital market towards a more controlled/ managed economy and capital markets. I would call it the MAGA economy.

It does, but I also expect a 100 year zero coupon treasury to have far higher interest rates than 10 or 30 year treasuries which pay out interest. Unless of course the US somehow extorts below market interest rates from these century bonds from foreign buyers. Then of course this paper would be worth way below par on issues“ and furthermore, foreign buyers would also incur exchange rate losses from the falling USD. Sounds like a deal you can’t refuse.

So if you mind your own business , then you are marked red and are automatically an enemy. Sounds like a lot of enemies to me. There is actually a much simpler idea to bring the USD down: Tax foreign investment income with a withholding tax. That will make foreign investments way less attractive. Only hits foreigners if you design it that way. Foreigners stop investing in US assets, dump treasuries and stocks and asset prices and the USD will go down. Sounds much less complicated than this plan, it will get some extra tax income and helps bring down then USD and of course asset prices. Tell me why this won’t work?

If you haven’t heard MAGA thinks fact checking is evil.

Squid games: https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/the-squid-game-stock-market?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Yes, that’s correct, the stock was close, but now it’s now below net cash. Ironically controlled by a Japanese co (Gung-Ho) which is nos serious buying back stock. GRVY trades below net cash and thry made ~$8.5/ share in a down year. Pretty cheap for a $54 stock, but no catalyst. As we know, cheap can get cheaper.

Berkshire selling the real estate brokerage business: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/16/buffetts-berkshire-may-sell-its-real-estate-business-what-it-means.html Seems odd since they typically don’t sell fully owned business, but I think the brokerage business has been impaired with the recent changes in brokerage commission transparency . From my limited experience, commissions have downward pressure, especially the buyers side part.

A bit more GRVY last week. It’s a net net now.

There was an approx 200M bbl drawdown on the strategic oil reserve. At $70/ bbl that’s worth $14B or in other words

I am front running tariffs today:

Well, there is an odd lots podcast about this, so it has been making the rounds in economist circles. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000695795892